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Cash Will Be King in 2017

With stock prices at all-time highs and growing unease filtering out of the nation’s capital, investors will want to have cash on hand to take advantage of any opportunities that may emerge.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/16/cash-will-be-king-in-2017.aspx
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Would you recommend raising cash now in anticipation of picking up some bargains in the future?
I think the period around the State of the Union will be a telling time. I also think that Trump's State of the Union speech will be one of the most watched in a long time ... no one can guess what he will say.
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Comments

  • The only thing that I can say with 100% certainty is that I will not be watching any of it. I agree that no one can guess what he will say, including himself, and then he will deny having ever said it.

    I've never raised or lowered cash levels in anticipation of these circus acts preferring Mr. Markets take/guidance instead.
  • Don't depend on any single source of information to make your investment decisions on, especially the Motley Fool.
  • edited February 2017
    Since Hussman started calling for a market correction, every year one person or the other will sound the alarm. Then the one's who didn't say "a-ha" am I glad I didn't say anything? Next year I will say something and it will be closer to the market top. Haha.

    Then another year passes, another prognosticator makes a fool of himself. Pun intended.

    Then another.

    And then another.

    However, you should listen to me when I tell you, yes you should have cash on hand. I'm also telling you there will be WW III coming soon. No, really. I'm serious. I just don't know how to put the emoji for "serious".
  • Hi @MaryKay,

    Old_Skeet always keeps an ample amount cash for the unexpected including stock market pullbacks. It is a standard part of my asset allocation.

  • edited February 2017
    MaryKay said:


    Would you recommend raising cash now in anticipation of picking up some bargains in the future? I think the period around the State of the Union will be a telling time. I also think that Trump's State of the Union speech will be one of the most watched in a long time ... no one can guess what he will say.

    @MaryKay,

    - First, stick to your long term plan whatever it is. Market timing is very tough to pull off.

    - Second, if your plan allows for overweighting or underweighting equities, than I believe this is an appropriate time to be underweight (meaning a higher than usual cash level).

    - I'd never try to base an investment decision on an anticipated speech, Federal Reserve meeting, Act of Congress, Supreme Court ruling or the like. Whenever I've anticipated one such outcome from such - the opposite usually occurred.

    - Yes - I watch the political scene unfold with alarm. But this is not a political forum and there's little I can do to change the course of history anyway.

    Like you, I suppose, I read a lot of financial press, consume David's monthly commentaries and listen to/watch a lot of Bloomberg. The warnings about valuations have been there for several years. But for every one like me, there's at least one other who will will tell you not to worry. That in the long run markets always go up. And the less attention you pay to the financial media the better off you are.(Ignorance is bliss.) Then there are a "select" few who acknowledge that markets can fall precipitously - but who will claim they always know exactly when to bail (at the top of course).

    So - Pick your poison.:)
  • I recall learning that Joe Kennedy got out of the Market just BEFORE the Great Depression?
  • edited February 2017
    Crash said:

    I recall learning that Joe Kennedy got out of the Market just BEFORE the Great Depression?

    What I learnt is there is no substitute for insider information. The "best" investors often have this talent. They call it "re" "search". They have to search twice, first to find the information, then one more time to confirm it.

  • I had heard he needed to invest in more boats for his business which was doing quite well.
  • ECRI comes to roughly the same conclusion for structural/longer term growth, via the simple metric of labor-force growth + productivity growth.
  • Wow! Mr. Krugman got this one correct. His thinking has been so muddled recently because of his political positions I'm surprised he can do anything remotely related to economics. However, to apply the reason to the growth rates to particular presidents is ridiculous. The conditions that led to the growth rate were put in place prior to the president taking office. The only case where you might ascribe a particular growth rate to a president is the decision to go to war.

  • hank said:

    MaryKay said:


    Would you recommend raising cash now in anticipation of picking up some bargains in the future? I think the period around the State of the Union will be a telling time. I also think that Trump's State of the Union speech will be one of the most watched in a long time ... no one can guess what he will say.

    @MaryKay,

    - First, stick to your long term plan whatever it is. Market timing is very tough to pull off.

    - Second, if your plan allows for overweighting or underweighting equities, than I believe this is an appropriate time to be underweight (meaning a higher than usual cash level).

    - I'd never try to base an investment decision on an anticipated speech, Federal Reserve meeting, Act of Congress, Supreme Court ruling or the like. Whenever I've anticipated one such outcome from such - the opposite usually occurred.

    - Yes - I watch the political scene unfold with alarm. But this is not a political forum and there's little I can do to change the course of history anyway.

    Like you, I suppose, I read a lot of financial press, consume David's monthly commentaries and listen to/watch a lot of Bloomberg. The warnings about valuations have been there for several years. But for every one like me, there's at least one other who will will tell you not to worry. That in the long run markets always go up. And the less attention you pay to the financial media the better off you are.(Ignorance is bliss.) Then there are a "select" few who acknowledge that markets can fall precipitously - but who will claim they always know exactly when to bail (at the top of course).

    So - Pick your poison.:)
    Thank you for your reply. This bull market is getting to be an old one. I only raised the State of the union address because it might be the 'buy the rumor; sell the event' type of occurrence.
  • I just returned from crafts sale. Spent $45 , more than the prior 3years combined.
    Growth more like 2. 5 %
    Derf
  • @MaryKay. Seriously, there is a reason one shouldn't do too much ANALysis. The Russians could have compromised our elections and worse and the market STILL hasn't tanked. Rumor and News have been rolled up into one and the Market is making new highs. Sane people would be all in Cash. Problem is the world is Insane.
  • @MK,

    >> His thinking has been so muddled recently because of his political positions I'm surprised he can do anything remotely related to economics.

    You're going to have to do a lot better than just your sayso.
  • edited February 2017
    If cash is to be king this year; than the suggestion exists that equity will diminish enough to cause a "sale" of this market area, yes?
    If this is the case and with the amount of money sloshing about, other market areas will likely find this "slosh" money.
    These monies will not sit idle.....

    This may suggest that the bond boom is not yet dead; in particular, U.S. Treasury issues, eh?

  • beebee
    edited February 2017
    I believe a recent interview with Charles De Vaulx held the same opinion about the importance of cash in 2017:
    wealthtrack.com/high-risk-market-international-value-advisers-charles-de-vaulx-says-markets-expensive-opportunities/
    "We’re holding cash. We don’t mind losing a little bit of money on cash which is a strange statement to hear from me. I’m not known to like to lose money, because what’s unique about cash and only cash has that attribute, cash is not only a buffer. It’s not only something that does not go down in price when other things may go down in price. Cash is what you actually need to buy low so that you can then sell high. When people say – maybe the Rothschilds –you’re supposed to pounce when there’s blood in the street, you actually need cash to pounce.
    Transcript:
    wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/WEALTHTRACK_DeVaulx_1331_01.20.17.pdf
  • edited February 2017
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • While it's difficult to do so at my age, I'm watching Eric Cinnamond and reading his Absolute Value blog. So I'm taking profits and trying to make myself sell my losers (much more difficult). New money from my 403b sits there glaring at my failure to ride the bubble, and I worry about my "not so old" money, which is generally positive, although some of it took overlong to become so (but my idea of "new" is within the last 5 years). I did buy some XAR, due to some suggestions here.
    This is an artificial market, driven by QE, and rates have to rise sometime. Yellen will be replaced by a compliant individual, but there is an increase or two in interest rates in the meantime.
    If anyone knows when to step out of this market, they're much smarter than I. One also has to be able to predict crowd behavior, to get to the exits before they do; and some members of this crowd use megadata and computer arrays far beyond my ability, time or resources.
    I haven't put my grandchildren's money in since I have to believe there's at least a 10% decline to come, but 20% seems possible.
    As others have commented, one needs to buy when there is blood in the gutters (but, frankly, I doubt the Rothchilds were ever fully invested).
    Must admit that I'm a long way from dog food for lunch (and, hey, the French eat horsemeat, so I hear), but I bet some of that Fancy Feast with a bit of onion and hot sauce would be mighty tasty. Unfortunately, it's not actually that cheap.
  • @STB65,

    Have you considered dollar cost averaging that money in over 1-2 years? Then if we do get that decline you can take advantage of it.
  • beebee
    edited February 2017
    @Maurice,
    I can tell you that I've held cash longer than I ever have, and it has been my biggest mistake of all the years that I've been investing.
    Putting cash back to work is challenging.

    One way would be to "dip your toe" into conservative allocation funds. Funds like HBLIX, CBUZX, DIFIX, VWINX might fit this category. Try to own funds that you're comfortable holding through thick and thin (7- 10 years). To deal with the "thin", calculate (best estimate) what your (1-3 year) distribution needs will be. Keep this part of your portfolio in "near cash" or "cash" investments.

    This thread is full of choices and it takes some time to digest. Do some research, select your options, and segregate this (1-3 year) amount from the rest of your portfolio. Once you can fill your 1-3 year needs move further out on the risk/reward/time line.

    Time often a forgotten investment consideration. Time helps build positions (by DCA), time helps to smooth out market volatility, time provides undervalued assets to be recognized and revalued. Time also provides a framework for investors to reallocate their portfolio.

    Consider these time frames for your portfolio: 1-3 years, 3-7 years, and 7-10 years. Three "time categories" that each of your investments should fit in. The percentage that is dedicated to the three categories is based on age, need, resources, goals, and any other tangible reasons to put "saved money" in that category.

    Approach your "saved money" from the standpoint of goals (what did you save it for in the first place). For me, this approach is goals based, time based, and creates a set rules I can follow (a plan). It's success is not guaranteed, but it helps me stay the course.
  • @STB65, trying to predict entry and exit points had been the bane of my investing technique over the years. But the light bulb turned on and I believe I've learned my lesson.

    I've borrowed the @Old_Skeet philosophy of having an investment range of 40-60% equity investment at all times (though not the folder idea or numerous funds). Selection of funds doesn't need to be perfect nor the # of funds IMO. Knowing that squelches my urge to buy the hot fund or sector that you will often see talked about here at MFO. I don't need a toe hold in this manager's new fund or that manager's new idea (or sales pitch) for alternative investing. I think @Junkster coined the phrase "group think funds" for that theme. Portfolio and fund consistency and staying invested long term in my view is much more important.

    John's DCA suggestion is never a bad idea. Good luck in your decisions.

  • @STB: You maybe generous at correction of 20% ! Sleep well is what counts in my port.
    Derf
  • @STB65, Regardless what others may think you need to have an allocation/plan that you can sleep. I agree what you said on QE and market valuation. As always market timing is difficult and many of us have learn here.

    Lately I have been rebalanced out of equity into cash or short term bond as I think US market is ahead of itself. Also pick up some gold ETF, IAU just to hedge inflation (regardless what the government reported). March 15th is next Fed meeting and there is increasing probability of 25 basis point hike. Similar to 2016, there is likely two other hikes this year. As for my bond allocation, I use balanced fund, PRWCX and WNENX so that the managers can make decision on the % bond-equity.
  • @bee, so are we not supposed to underweight bonds now? i'm forever bond challenged. Is it possible to project with some level of certainty if interest rates went to 2% and then stayed around 2% for another 2 years, how will intermediate bonds perform?
  • I suppose that it's mathematically possible to make such a projection. However it's not possible to project whether or not that particular event sequence will occur. So where does that leave us?
  • I was just trying to get an idea based on my time horizon. I do own some balanced funds (ICMBX, OAKBX, GLRBX) today but not adding to them, fearing the worst. Purchased some alternative funds instead like MASNX and WMCNX.

    By making up scenario I described I was trying to figure when I can expect to be whole again. If I can't be whole again in 3 years, then I don't want to invest there. I'm contemplating just raising cash instead of adding to plain jane balanced funds.
  • edited February 2017
    @VF,
    Isn't the whole point of GLRBX (among others) to be able to fear the worst, or about?
  • beebee
    edited February 2017
    If I can't be whole again in 3 years, then I don't want to invest there.
    @VintageFreak,
    Historically none of your funds have ever experienced a negative 3 year rolling average.
    GLRBX has data back to 1996:
    image
    OAKBX data goes back to 1998:
    image
    ICMBX has to shortest history going back to 2008:
    image

    A fund like VWINX has maintained stellar 3 yr rolling average results for over 30 years. I'll let the managers of this balance fund decide the blend of equities and bonds (percentages & types).
    image
  • Nice graphs @bee. Thanks.
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