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FYI: We’ll never get rid of gurus, because assuming someone knows everything is easier than trying to figure out how they knew one thing. They let us pretend the future is knowable, and the path forward is obvious. Regards, Ted
We must always be careful when someone claims the gurus status. Their forecasting record should always be examined. Long term scoring their forecasts against real happenings is essential. A few experts have good records, however most fail this obvious test. What happens to their score when the timeframe is longer than 1 year? That’s a tough but needed challenge. It likely degrades significantly. The real,world is far too complex with even far more unknowable variables to be a successful forecaster over an extended timeframe.
Hot hands become cold. But gurus do serve a useful purpose. They provide alternate views likely using different criteria and different data sources. Our exposure to such diverse data and thinking is needed to allow us to make more informed and better decisions. Perhaps with a little luck we can even get our correct score above the 50% mark.
Good luck on achieving that modest goal. Hard work and persistence will improve those odds so keep on plugging away.
Comments
Ted likely overlooked listing the following reference in his submittal:
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/no-more-gurus/
We must always be careful when someone claims the gurus status. Their forecasting record should always be examined. Long term scoring their forecasts against real happenings is essential. A few experts have good records, however most fail this obvious test. What happens to their score when the timeframe is longer than 1 year? That’s a tough but needed challenge. It likely degrades significantly. The real,world is far too complex with even far more unknowable variables to be a successful forecaster over an extended timeframe.
Hot hands become cold. But gurus do serve a useful purpose. They provide alternate views likely using different criteria and different data sources. Our exposure to such diverse data and thinking is needed to allow us to make more informed and better decisions. Perhaps with a little luck we can even get our correct score above the 50% mark.
Good luck on achieving that modest goal. Hard work and persistence will improve those odds so keep on plugging away.
Best Wishes