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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
Interest rate uncertainty coupled with the Iranian missile strike on Israel have me opening my eyes to possible investment opportunities for the first time this year. I will be paying attention to market action on Monday and may make a trade or two.
David Snowball wrote in the March 2024 Commentary that:
If you believe that The Great Distortion has ended, that inflation is real, and that interest rates will not return to the zero-to-negative range they occupied since 2008, then you might also w…
I am sometimes reminded of something Bill Gates wrote in March of 2023: "The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone." NVDA's performance today suggests A…
FWIW....No advice from here for short term traders...but here are my three high yield bond fund holdings. They are distinct and have each treated me well: RPHIX (and RPHYX), CBLDX, and BGHIX.
My experience is similar to what others noted here....I am up in low single digits on a total return basis since start of 2022. My portfolio (70% stocks) is seriously underweight in the current market darlings. But, even so it has not fallen very …
@davfor, yes, I can think of all those reasons why people might wish for cuts. How many of them have anything to do with the Fed's legal mandate?
The Federal Reserve System has been given a dual mandate—pursuing the economic goals of maximum empl…
There are numerous reasons the fed may well be receptive to cutting rates when they become convinced that the pandemic induced spike in inflation is on a firm downward path. Here are a few possible reasons off top of my head: facilitate reduction…
The Nov-Dec huge performance is over.
Looking forward into 2024 has me considering what is likely to happen if the federal funds rate begins to decline this spring as I think it probably will. By then, the forward looking bond market may well be p…
if you figure it out, feel free to let me/us know :-).
It seems reasonable to me to expect the total return from floating rate products will trend down if rates begin to go down. The last paragraph of their most recent quarterly newsletter doesn't …
JAAA is new to me. I notice it began to move with fairly a steady upward trend in October 2022 several months after the Fed started to increase the federal funds rate. Also, other bond investment products such as SVARX, PIMIX, and BINC substantial…
Most importantly, as an retired investor in the de-accumulating phase of life, I contemplate how best to manage my portfolio withdrawals as I dollar cost average out of positions in up and down markets.
Here are a couple of things I think about whi…
Fido makes you wait an extra day to complete a fund-to-fund trade. I can live with that. Agree sooner would be better.
Once upon a time Fido let you reinvest a portion, up to 90% of anticipated sale proceeds as of the last closing price as I recall…
I retain an old school perspective that my parents -- who were products of the great depression and dust bowl -- taught me. That perspective taught me to strive to have enough $'s available to pay for foreseeable expenses with cash. That conservat…
$20, 000-$30,000 sitting in cash for the new roof you might need “one of these days” makes little sense to me (unless you are doing so to reap the (substantial) current rate of interest.)
One would expect under normal circumstances to make pe…
Many good points already made. Here's my ten cents worth. Self-directed investing is like running a small business out of the home. It's financial reason for existing is to benefit the household. When I rented out properties I owned, I kept the …
@Swen Thanks for that clarification. The self-developed system I use is based on an investment account spreadsheet and a separate household budget spreadsheet. Maintaining a formal wall between my investing account and household account helps me …
@sma3 & @Sven I agree that having a cash bucket makes sense. Mine is held outside the investment accounts described above. It currently equals about 13% of the total held in those accounts. It is intended to temporarily provide funds to miti…
@Sven Yes. Current Income Sources: defined benefit pensions = 45%, taxable investment account = 30%, social security = 25%. (Also have two smaller Roths that are not being tapped.) Taxable investment account has grown substantially since retir…
@davfor ...in an ideal world, the dividends/distributions generated in your IRA would sufficiently cover your RMDs as well.
I'll take you word for it. But, I don't face any RMD requirements. So, that's an uncharted world to me. About 90% of my inv…
@yogibearbull The suggested annual withdrawal as of 12/31/23 under the system I described above was 4.0%. That is similar to my typical annual withdrawal prior to making the decision to focus on dividends rather than total returns. But, the curr…
Thanks for the comments. For about the first 15 years of retirement, I focused on total returns to help determine the withdrawal amounts from my investment portfolio . This method turned out to be somewhat complicated and stressful due to significa…
It's my sense the article's basic conclusion is accurate in the sense that msf described. But, that doesn't mean most people feel that they are better off. I suspect they continue to focus on their frustration that much of the stuff they buy regul…
The low level of estimated volatility of total returns for the floating rate ETF class of bonds reported in this recent table from Wealthfront caught my eye. That characteristic appears to tie in with the relative stability of the median annual ret…
The bond sleeve of my portfolio was reorganized as the ballast sleeve in early 2022 as the bond world ran into serious trouble. SVARX survived the transition and CBLDX and HMEZX were added (a small residual holding of RCTIX also remains). Those ho…
Is 7% coming soon?!.....
It took a while but has arrived.
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Tops 7%, Hits Highest Since 2001
It surprises me how much the rate has increased this year. But, the Fed is now getting it's way. Sales prices are soften…
I came out from under my rock long enough this morning to use a little cash to take a nibble at ORCC. The high income half (8% YOC) of the high yield sleeve (3% YOC) of the portfolio was a little underweight as of last weekend. (BDC's now make up …
It's been my expectation the stock market retreat would bottom somewhere close to it's current level. But, the Fed waited for something to break in a major way before beginning to raise rates. Perhaps it will wait for something (what?) to break in…
A little more about Powell's evolving strategy for getting inflation under control....
Powell “buried the concept of a soft landing” with his Aug. 26 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. Now, “the Fed’s goa…
One commodity with the potential for price pressure for an extended period of time....
“This is the 1970s for natural gas,” says Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based research firm. “The world is now thin…
My thoughts on the topic:
-So, I think bonds will find their final bottom b4 stocks. (Though stocks can have a countertrend rally any time, and July is usually an up month.)
The stock market decline has been very orderly so far and much uncertaint…
I know we're closer to the bottom that we were at the start of the year. Other than that, it depends on whether things are really broken or in only in need of a major tune up. I am currently doing a little tax loss trading and dribbling a few new …
@BaluBalu Here's a partial answer to your question. The Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) website can be accessed here. That site lists it's total asset value at $111B with 50% of the portfolio being in the residential sector. The Q1 …
Here is statistical info that lends support to the comment @Junkster made:
Those with cash and/or other financial resources are not yet being squeezed.
Here is a comment that focuses on the single family rental market issue @hank mentioned:
The U.…