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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New funds
    I bought a fund of recent vintage, GQGPX which I had to go to TD Ameritrade to buy, it seems they are they only brokers selling it. Ihave called the fund company and Fido to ask that it be on Fidelity's platform, but so far no dice. I was able to buy its sister fund GSIHX which is subadvised by GQG Partners but its only 20% emerging market, not 80% of GPGPX. I had mentioned this new fund before, it is managed by a boutique firm started by Rajiv Jain, former manager of Virtus Emerging Market which he managed for over 10 years with excellent results. Im adding to it until Fido decides to carry it, I would rather only have one broker.
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    >> Fido Money Market- "FZDXX" is yielding 1.69% at the moment.
    Well, study this in some detail -- fn5, fn4 / minimum if applicable, performance details --- it has outperformed (somewhat) 3-month t-bills; 1y as of last week was 1.16%
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31617H805?type=o-SrchResults
    http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fundfactsheet/31617H805
    I prefer a money market to short-term bond funds because right now FZDXX is at 1.70%, and each week it will increase a few basis points as long as interest rates continue to go up. And for the near-term, that's the trend.
    For those parking funds in Cash for a few weeks or a few months in the interest of market-timing or whatever the reasoning, MMkts are ideal. The odds of a negative return are almost nil (unlike short-term bond funds). I've compared to TRBUX, GILPX, MINT, etc. Money markets are finally giving a small return, and people still think they are yielding close to 0%. That is finally changing.
    My next level up is a Floating Rate fund. I own SPFPX .
    And then SEMPX (MBS).
    Not everybody has the desire to be at 100% equities. After a long bull market, some of us will get cautious. The market is finally showing some volatility after years of smooth sailing thanks to Fed intervention. That intervention has been slowly fading away.
    Now we have a "leader" starting a trade war. Perhaps some caution is warranted. But that's just my 2 cents.
    I have been buying ITOT this week on dips. But I keep a solid cash stake on hand to buy many, many more ITOT lots this summer on continued dips. If that doesn't happen, I'll be stuck earning close to +2%. A gamble I am comfortable with.
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    how quickly we leave the conditions set in the OP
    not talking about having cash for equity purchases unless you are doing timing, which is a separate discussion
    not talking about having cash for nearterm (~n years) needs or indeed emergency stash / buffer
    if for sleep-at-night, cool, just realize that and say so
    Gosh - Market timing? Don’t know. You can judge. As laid out in some detail in one of Puddenhead’s threads last November, I split my portfolio between a “Core” position (75%) which doesn’t change and a “Flex” position (25%) in which I attempt to correlate my exposure to equities & cash with my perception of market risk at the time. The normal cash range runs from 10% to 20%. Not a perfect system for sure. But that’s the plan I’ve followed for 22 years since retiring and it meets my humble needs. Other than cash or short term bonds, where else would one move to when valuations appear high?
    Now - Does that make me a “market timer“? Don’t know. I’ll say that all of my fund companies have strict rules designed to prevent market timing. Some I’ve been with for 30 or more years. None has ever identified me as a market timer or abusive trader. But if I am a timer, where’s your problem? It’s not illegal, unethical or immoral as far as I know. And it strikes me odd that the term would be tossed out in a derogatory fashion on a board where the most popular thread each month is: What are you buying, selling or pondering? Seems like a case of The pot calling the kettle black.
    Re: Sleeping well ... I think having a clearly thought out investment plan and adhering to the plan rigorously does go a long way in assuring a good night’s sleep.
    Cheers!
  • Series D & N Mutual Funds: The New Share Classes Of The Future
    This looks like someone trying to reverse engineer what literally two fund families have done into some industry "trend".
    This new class is called the D or N share ... There are still a few D shares available but many are closed to new investors
    So which is it, are D shares a new share class or a dying share class?
    What he's observing is that many years (decades?) ago, Janus closed its funds to direct sales, requiring you to go through brokerages. (That's the opposite of what he wrote: " Many fund families, like Janus Henderson, for example, will offer access to their no-load funds if done directly.") Janus allows only shareholders who already invested directly with them to continue to do so, buying their direct-only D shares.
    The article might have been triggered by PIMCO's shuttering of D shares. Those two families are the only ones that come immediately to my mind that offered D shares. One other point about PIMCO - its D shares were not cheaper than its A shares. That's contrary to his statement: " the fund [D/N share] has a lower expense ratio than its A and C share equivalents."
    It is true that over the past several years, we've seen many funds offering N shares. Doubleline (DSEEX, DSENX), William Blair (BGFIX ,WBGSX), etc. But these are usually just retail versions of the institutional shares, with extra 12b-1 fees. Not noload versions of load funds.
    When Harbor split its funds into two share classes, it raised the min for its existing shares and added "Investor" shares with the old min and an extra 12b-1 fee, e.g. HIINX, HAINX. N shares are not like I (or institutional) shares. They're just vanilla retail shares. The only thing special you might infer from the 'N' designation is that they're more likely to have 12b-1 fees than "Investor" class shares. But that varies from family to family.
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    Why does anyone here hold or go to cash if truly not needed soon? Many market-timers, seriously?
    It helps me sleep at night. In my IRA I can be anywhere from 0% to 100% invested. I just follow a model honed over 3 or so years. I don't even have to run the model every day. Once a week I look and whatever it tells me I do.
    It's not about "market timing". That word has gotten such a bad rap, why even use it except in a derogatory way. Let's call it something more intelligent like "tactical allocation".
    Why can't I do my own tactical allocation? I can also look at "macro trends", and "market strength" and the crystal ball I keep in my garage.
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    how quickly we leave the conditions set in the OP
    not talking about having cash for equity purchases unless you are doing timing, which is a separate discussion
    not talking about having cash for nearterm (~n years) needs or indeed emergency stash / buffer
    if for sleep-at-night, cool, just realize that and say so
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    Only reasons I can think of are (1) reduce volatility and have money to invest if valuations dip and (2) you don’t think bonds are attractive due to the low rates and fact they don’t do well in rising rate environments. Personally, i still pay for housing, transportation, food, medical etc with cash, so think having some on hand useful instead of having to sell equities often to meet those anticipated needs. Rather than holding 3 years of expected future expenses in a cash reserve, as @BobC and others have recommended in the past, I simply draw from the invested cash (no emergency reserve) - probably one reason the % looks high,
    BTW - Some prominent investors do hold cash. Their reasons may be different and their amounts are more than I ever dream of. https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/07/warren-buffetts-109-billion-cash-problem-how-much.aspx
    Warmest regards @Ted and @davidmoran
  • Stock Mutual Funds Feel Amazon’s Pain
    The sad fact(s) that affect a company as Amazon and now related tech. sector companies, which of course, affects one's investments in a variety of equity holding types; is that this country has a physical sized adult, with child like behaviors presenting daily distractions in an attempt to misdirect attentions.
    While I find this behavior fully disgusting, regardless of political party affiliation; I remain optimistic, as to positive outcomes for the majority of tech. related. There may be other forces that come into play for the financial markets in general, and tech. may flat line for a period; but I don't believe the majority of large tech. to be in the same boat as during the dot.com bubble. Today's companies have real business models with real earnings. Were techs. overpriced? Perhaps.
    Regardless of the recent sell down in tech.; I suspect the major trading houses also have a forward positive view for large tech.
    I have money in the game, too; as with all here.
    Aside from whatever else worries the POTUS at this time; envy of the monetary worth of others may likely also cause him to be "plain angry" for no good real reason; aside from pure ENVY.
    Lastly, to all of our investments being affected by machinations from DC-land; I have wondered whether a message has been delivered by whatever method, from a Chinese official, as to: "This tariff thing is dangerous, agreed? If necessary, we can always purchase the proper futures contracts for Treasury bonds, and begin to unload our U.S. Treasury holdings. We've already made money from holding these issues over the years and will make more money on the sell side, too."
    Let us discover what comes from upcoming announcements regarding tariffs upon what products. Maybe we're inside of a virtual game, in an alternate universe, of the "Apprentice" and don't realize, eh?
    I am reminded of the movie, "War Games" and the computer, WOPR; asking, "Do you want to play a game?"
    We remain living in dangerous times, eh?
    I've chores to get started and finished.
    Take care of yourselves,
    Catch
  • question to Mr. David Snowball
    Hi, Elie.
    I was invested in Artisan Small Cap Value, virtually from the day it launched until the day it merged into Mid Cap Value. Many good years, some bad ones but I tend to stick with managers through thick and thin. (A recent Morningstar study looking at funds with great 15 year records concludes that many will trail their peers for 12 or 13 of those years.)
    I don't know what the Artisan folks are up to. That's not a slight on them, it's just a report that we haven't talked. In general, I'm told that the senior Artisan partners had an equity stake in the firm and that stake became exceedingly valuable when the firm went public. One number bandied about, but not verified, from one of the most senior folks was $100 million.
    Mr. Satterwhite left in 2016 after 32 years in the investment industry and 19 years at Artisan. He is, I believe, 60. I could easily imagine someone in those circumstances deciding that it was time to move to life's next adventure, whether as entrepreneur, philanthropist or vacationer.
    For what that's worth,
    David
  • 50/50
    Hi Guys,
    Diversification is one solid foundation when making asset allocation decisions. Diversification is a winning strategy, but too much diversification can do harm. That harm is captured when diversification increases portfolio volatility as measured by an increase in return standard deviation.
    Here is a Link to an article that approximately defines net long term geometric return as average annual return minus standard deviation squared divided by two:
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/volatility-drag-variance-drain-mean-arithmetic-vs-geometric-average-investment-returns/
    I am not comfortable with an even split allocation because of that subtraction component of the equation. International returns seem to be highly volatile with both huge up years and down years.
    That's my primary reason why I limit my portfolio's international exposure to 20 to 30% of its total value. All this is approximate so I am typically not in a considerable rush to make adjustments.
    The costs of many adjustments usually operates to reduce long term performance. But that just might be lazy me. Everyone has their own plan and how to operate it that puts themselves in their comfort zone. That's what makes markets work.
    Best Regards to all
  • How To Lose A Lot Of Money In The Stock Market
    Well, I can’t argue with the premise that if you’re in the market for a LONG period, B&H has worked and should (we hope) continue to work.
    The author says that “… a buy and hold strategy will put me ahead.”
    Ahead? That’s it? Ahead?
    Roughly 70% of the money that I earned in the stock market came from trading.
    I don’t suggest that people should trade. It’s just that I think that these articles
    are intended to make you feel less like a dope when the market is crashing and sucking away a sizeable amount of your hard-earned money.
    Sure, if you have 20 or more years before you retire, you can watch as the bottom falls out and plan on buying at a lower price point – sometime in the future.
    But if you’re 50 or more, you must be aware of the sequence of returns.
    If you’re nearing or in retirement, and you don’t have a healthy fear of losing money, then you’re open to losing your money and kissing a secure retirement goodbye.
    If you lose money when you’re 60, you haven’t merely lost money; you’ve lost
    your edge – edge being your money’s time value, which is all the income that your lost money could have generated.
    When retirement is in sight, you’ve entered a new investment challenge. That challenge is the preservation of your money. So it’s primarily an age thing.
    Sequence of returns
    https://www.thebalance.com/how-sequence-risk-affects-your-retirement-money-2388672
    http://abovethecanopy.us/sequence-of-returns-biggest-risk-to-a-successful-retirement/
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
  • Are Annuities Finally Getting Some Respect?

    I never understood why 403(b) plans were offered to non-profits when 401(k) plans were the preferred offering in the private sector.
    I never understood why employer-sponsored health plans were offered in the US when government-sponsored health plans were the preferred offering globally.
    Same reason - historical accident.
    403(b)'s history goes back about 3/4 of a century before the advent of 401(k)'s - to Andrew Carnegie, who created the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, with the an objective "to remedy the disparity between the great value conferred on society by higher education faculty and the miserly financial benefit society gave faculty in return." The focus was on providing pensions for educators.
    This led to the Carnegie Foundation creating TIAA using annuities as the best way to provide pensions. It required no employee contribution for many years. As TIAA grew larger, that became unsustainable. TIAA was spun off, and employee contributions were added. As market returns became more important post WW2, TIAA created CREF. Finally, in 1958, Congress enacted legislation covering these plans. Thus 403(b).
    401(k)'s come from the private sector, where gold watches and pensions were unfunded gratuities that employees couldn't count on. (See Studebaker, 1963.) While the Studebaker failure was the impetus for ERISA, the private sector had had CODAs (deferred compensation plans - cash or deferred arrangements) for decades, and these led to 401(k) plans.
    While 403(b)s and 401(k)s are much more similar than they were in the past, they have different histories and different quirks.
    Regarding the story linked to by Bee, what it doesn't say is that the company used, Aspire, charges participants $40/year and skims 15 basis points off their investments, which add their own ERs. Many of TIAA's 403(b) participants can do a bit better, e.g. VFIAX at 14 basis points, all in.
    https://www.aspireonline.com/resources/faqs/-in-category/categories/categories/fees
  • Are Annuities Finally Getting Some Respect?
    @bee, what if you has no option in your pension plan other than an annuity? Taking a lump sum is often calculated a reduced value. I still has 10-15 years to go.
    If you are participating in a 403(b) plan, ask your plan sponsor if there are 403(b)(7) options. If there are no 403(b)(7) options, you have a right to petition for these options. This usually requires a lot of work (on your part) and a little bit of luck, but is well worth the effort.
    403(b)wise is a good source of information on 403(b) plans and has a discussion board where you can post questions. Might be a good place to gather information.
    https://403bwise.com/
    A Story:
    https://403bwise.com/k12/story/129
  • Are Annuities Finally Getting Some Respect?
    @bee, what if you has no option in your pension plan other than an annuity? Taking a lump sum is often calculated a reduced value. I still has 10-15 years to go.
  • Are Annuities Finally Getting Some Respect?
    Sounds like insurers are pushing their agenda in Washington as they attempt to buy votes for this bill's passage.
    I never understood why 403(b) plans were offered to non-profits when 401(k) plans were the preferred offering in the private sector. Insurers carved out their customer base by pushing 403(b) and are now are looking for additional customers.
    Good article on the differences:
    https://humaninterest.com/blog/403b-compared-to-401k-retirement-plans-for-non-profits/
    and,
    https://investopedia.com/ask/answers/100314/what-difference-between-401k-plan-and-403b-plan.asp
    Most 403(b) investment options are variable annuities that have loads, management fees, sales fees, wrap fees, rider fees, early redemption fees...even rules that limited upside capture of market returns...feh! These TSAs are offered by insurance companies that, like AIG, are not immune to failing.
    As a teacher, we fought long and hard to "force" management to offer 403b(7) investment options with low fee firms like Vanguard.
    Any annuity (Insurance product) should be competitively priced and closely regulated.
    Once you head down the (Annuity 401(k)) rabbit hole its expensive tunneling out.
    Alternative:
    Invest in low fee funds during your working years, then consider buying an immediate annuity with a portion of your investments to compliments your retirement income. This decision can wait until you are close to retiring and in fact even later into retirement if that makes better financial sense.
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    Getting back to @Crash and his original post...obviously utilities have "sucked' lately, but PRWCX is "positive on Utes over the next decade"...@Ted long standing call for "QQQ" (which exists) may be replaced with "UUU" (which doesn't exist).
    If you have not listen to David Giroux commentary:
    https://wealthtrack.com/how-david-giroux-delivers-stock-market-performance-with-much-less-risk/
    Yes, I see PG&E and Eversource in PRWCX. The latter is my local electric company. No love there. This is from last December:
    https://digboston.com/eversource-screws-mass-consumers/
    Also reminds me of how often, all those years ago in my teens, I'd read in the paper that the insurance companies would approach that criminal--- Billy Bulger (not Whitey)--- whose official title was Insurance Commissioner, asking for rate increases year in and year out. Billy always just said, "Sure! Great idea!" Fox in charge of the henhouse. Same with all the federal agencies and regulators.
  • Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund overhaul
    In large part this is why I left Merrill Lynch. Limited choices in fund families who do not participate in revenue sharing such as Vanguard. I went back to Fidelity where I had been for the five years previous to my moving to ML. I had to sell a number of funds I had at Fido when I went to ML. Since bought some if those back. I like especially how Fido sells many load fund families ntf and load free.
  • BofA-Merrill Lynch To Pay Record Settlement For ‘Masking’ Trades
    @Crash, my corporate credit card switched to MasterCard after years being with Amex. We travel overseas on business or on personal that we don't pay transaction fee either on Visa and MasterCard. Why use ATMs when you can obtain cash from your debit cards from grocery stores. BOA started to charge fee on ATMs as we consolidated our banking with a local credit union.
  • MAPOX 1st Q div. 2018
    I've been in since 2012. Performance vs. peers is just fair to middling over the past 5 years. It looks good indeed, going back TEN years. More recently, it is a "cellar dweller" as we say in baseball. (But not about the Cubs any longer! ;) )
  • The Closing Bell: Nasdaq Drops 2.9%, Dow Falls More Than 300 points As Tech Shares Roll Over
    I am at the highest level of bond & cash in recent years. Don't see outstanding upside. More risk today with possible war with John Bolton on board. Remember Dick Cheney? Trade war is another.