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Buy - Sell - Ponder - May 2018

Hi guys,
Did some selling lately..... DSENX, FSHCX, and sold some GLFOX this week. What a comeback! I want to sell more before rates go up in Europe and the dollar goes higher. Also, this market gives me the jitters with things so good yet it goes nowhere. It's scary. With mid-terms coming, good chance things get worse. Also, all Republican press's have had a recession in their first term since 1900......just saying....
God bless
the Pudd
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Comments

  • Please tell why sell DSENX specifically over any other Large Cap fund. I was actually looking to see if I should enter corresponding international CAPE fund.

    Thanks much
  • edited May 2018
    @VF,
    DLEUX is Europe-oriented, not international. Unimpressive thus far.

    Yeah, I myself would sell DSENX for spending money only, no other reason.

    @Pudd,
    We have two-thirds of the "president" 's term to go.
  • Added to MGGPX, POAGX, GIS and mo MO
  • @MFO Members: Bought more MSOPX today.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Hi VintageFreak,
    Yeah, I can see why you ask. Taking profits, also I have FUSVX which I'm going to use. DESNX is more volatile than the S&P Fund....also higher ER. Also, I'm a fund collector so some need to go! I'm cutting my footprint in the markets now before the elections. Since I've retired, it's more important to not lose so much than to be as bold as I once was.

    Hi davidmoran,
    This is my thinking ...... from now to mid-terms, flat to down....then, the Demis roll in......I wish it was Moore. Anyway, then we get an updraft as Tweety says he will do the deal with anybody, i.e., Nancy Pelosi. Then, we're set up for the end. Again, subject to change, but I think not. And we haven't talked about the Fed or peak growth for the world much less the deficit that's coming. I keep thinking about the Billy Joel song, "We Didn't Start the Fire."
    Now, your turn. What's going to happen, think you?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Roy Moore?
    I think more muddling, for the most part. Economy and market will do okay some more. The "president" will probably be gone sooner than later. That will result in not as large an improvement as some keenly anticipate. (I foresee no catastrophe except for increased possibility of shootings of new sens and reps after this fall. But then that's because the tone all reminds me of 1968.)
  • Hi davidmoran,
    Roger that, 007!
    As a lad with brother and sisters, I remember '68 Detroit burned. People were shot that year. As an old man, that scares me greatly. When empires end, they over extend and pay for it dearly. And to that end will they spend the last drachma to extend the empire for one day more.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • I actually was thinking less of the Orangeburg shootings (e.g.) than the two hugely traumatic political assassinations that year, but yes about Detroit and other cities. I do not see this time as a matter chiefly of overreach, though, I have to add.
  • Hi guys,
    I was looking to sell some GLFOX today when I noticed that some of the companies in the top 10 of the fund have not traded in days or weeks. 7 of the top 10 trade on the OTC pick sheets, so my question is: where else do they trade? How do I get a daily quote on their price (they comprise about 50% of the fund's holdings)? Funny how you don't think about these things when you're buying....
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited May 2018
    Deleted post
  • I had taken some profits in FMIHX, FMIJX, and few Artisan funds earlier in April
    I added to PGIRX, GLBEX, IFAFX later in April

    Right now not doing anything. I might take some profits if markets deteriorate and look to redeploy the cash at appropriate time.

    It's May. Trying to forget work (work sucks big time) and spend some time with friends and family instead of Buy-Sell-Ponder.
  • @Puddnhead: It appears to me that most of GLFOX's holdings trade in Europe, so it would be hard to gauge their trading volume even if the stocks have a US listing. FWIIW, the fund has made a decent comeback from a really rocky start this year.
  • Been adding to newer position FISCX
  • @slick can you offer any insight into why Convertibles now?
  • edited May 2018
    @VintageFreak: I began noticing that a few of my funds were adding them, and the Prospector Opportunity Fund which has been mentioned lately has a pretty fair allocation to this hybrid asset class. Started following a few funds and decided to try my hand in FISCX with a relatively small (about 5% of my bond allocation) and sell one of my high grade corporate funds which was basically coasting. For those who follow what I own, most of my bond allocation is in two inherited individual muni bonds which I am holding til maturity. They represent about 80% of my bonds, they have a great rate and fluctuate very little. I used to own Fidelity's Convertible Fund in the mid to late 90s when it did well. Its only recently that I decided it was worth another try:)

    Here is a good on convertibles:

    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C000-S004-convertible-bonds-can-smooth-volatility.html
  • edited May 2018
    Hello,

    Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 158 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is undervalued based upon the barometer's metrics. Last week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 154 indicating borderline fair value for the Index. Also, I am finding that short interest for the Index remains at 1.6 days to cover while the 2/10 US Treasury spread moved from 0.47 to 0.44 during the week indicating that the yield cure continues to flatten.

    I'm still with my themes in this rising interest rate environment and that is adding to my money market investments (AMAXX & GBAXX) which have seven day yields of better than 1.5% and maintaining my CD ladder and rolling them upon maturity into higher paying ones. Like slick another one of my moves has been adding to my convertible securities fund (FISCX) which is up ytd about 6.4% and so far, for me, the best move has been found in my commodity securities fund (PCLAX) which is up ytd about 8.1%. My convertible securities fund makes up about 5% of my income area of my portfolio and I plan to build out my commodity securities fund to about 8% of my growth area. Like slick, I noticed that many of my hybrid funds were increasing their holdings in convertibles so I followed suite and opened a position in a convertible fund more than a year ago. So far, so good. Another move has been in the banking area through my pick FRBAX which is up ytd about 4.2%. I have a good number of funds that seem to be handling increasing interest rates well and one sleeve, large/mid cap, where all three funds (AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX) are up. Overall, my portfolio is off it's 52 week high by 4.9% (end of January high) and ytd down 0.46%. In addition, I thinking of adding IALAX in my growth area which is up ytd 11.95% by doing a nav exchange from IIVAX (or part of it) into IALAX.

    A fund that I have begun to follow and study to see how it positions is KCMTX. One of its managers, Parker Binion, has posted some on the board. Also, David did a feature on the fund a while back. Interestingly, as of 12/31/17 better than 80% of the fund was invested in the combined sectors of financial services, consumer cyclical, health care, technology and industrials. Year-to-date as of May 4, 2018 (according to Morningstar) it is down 0.45% while its rolling 1 year return is 9.57%, three year rolling return is 6.74% and five year rolling return is 8.95%. It might be worth a look. I have wanted to invest in this fund; however, my current brokerage house does not offer it for purchase. Still wanting to purchase this fund but not wanting to open a new brokerage account for a single fund purchase. Nice fund but, I'm thinking, needs to expand its share class offerings and availability at more brokerage houses thus making it available to more investors.

    Below is the link to David's write up on KCMTX.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/elevator-talk-parker-binion-kcm-macro-trends-fund/

    Any students of the markets have any note worthy interest rate plays, they favor, and might want to share?

    Wishing all "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet
  • @slick. Okay so managers who you like/respect/believe you saw adding to convertibles so decided to overweight. I swore off narrowly focused funds, but I try to passive aggressive on such things. So for instance, recently TRP guy (?) said overweight utilities. So if I'm finding trouble deciding on which fund to add right now, I might let that influence that decision. Can do the same when looking at my balanced funds so see if any own convertible bonds.

    Thanks much.
  • Hi BenWP,
    Thanks for the kick back! Yes, just another lesson learned. Will try to do better in the future.

    Hi Skeeter!
    Good post.....as usual. FISCX ..... I must look this up now that I've see it twice. It's getting hard to earn a buck in this market. FRBAX .....yes, I own it too. Will add on weakness. Will also say this: if one was looking to open a starter position in FSDAX, now might be a good time to think about it. The fund has been hit hard.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • @VintageFreak: its often times hard to find if your fund has convertibles in it unless you read their 6 month or annual summaries on their websites. They often times are not listed under bonds, but sometimes as other or as stocks because they are hybrids of both. I have my account at Fidelity and when I ran the analysis tab, it showed about 20% of my convertible fund as bonds, balance was showing as equity. A good place to start may be the fund analysis section of a fund in M* .i own TWEIX, and in the fund analysis section it states they can invest in convertibles. In portfolio, it shows likely in their "other" category. You might be better off just adding a convertible bond fund if you like the idea of convertibles, a lot less work than trying to ferret out which funds have an allocation to this asset class.
  • Sold some FADMX to establish a position in FFRHX. May be a future trend.
  • Gary said:

    Sold some FADMX to establish a position in FFRHX. May be a future trend.

    I apologize for sounding flippant. But “may be a future trend”?? If you look at a *weekly total return* chart for FFRHX or any fund in its bank loan category it has been one sustained uptrend since February of 2016.

  • edited May 2018
    I just pulled the plug on PREMX, EM bonds. Over the course of the years I've owned it (since summer, 2010) it's made me money. About 5% total. I can't get a completely accurate number, because when I rolled it out of the 403b into the IRA, TRP treated it like a brand new birth, as if the 403b never existed. (Poop.) Ya, it was down quite a bit today---again--- and so, I don't need to see any more of that. I'm looking for income and maintenance more than growth these days, and so, I took the PREMX money and put it all into RPIHX TRP Global Junk bonds. I've been eyeballing that one for months. I'm still in PRSNX, too. Holding up well. My other bond fund (brand new investment) is PTIAX. Biggest 3 holdings, in order: PRWCX, MAPOX (54% combined) and now RPIHX (14%.)... Can't bring myself to dump those stalwarts, though MAPOX is a bit of a drag on the portfolio, lately. And of course, they both hold bonds, too.
  • Also emptied-out my SFGIX. The proceeds will go to PTIAX. Maybe not an opportune moment, but I've never tried to time the market. This move will double my PTIAX stake, to 4.1% of portf.
  • Sold all QLEIX due to poor recent performance.
  • edited May 2018
    Hello,

    For the week ending May 11th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 155 which put the barometer's needle on the borderline between fairvalue and under value for the S&P 500 Index based upon the barometer's metrics. In addition, during the week the short interest for SPY moved from 1.6 to 2.5 days to cover along with the 2/10 US Treasury yield curve spread moved from 0.44 to 0.43 as it continues to flatten.

    This past week Old_Skeet increased his position in his convertible securities fund (FISCX) which was up 1.89% for the week and his commodity strategy fund (PCLAX) which was up 1.35% for the week. Year-to-date these two funds are up 8.44% and 9.58% respectively while one of my large cap growth funds (SPECX) was up for the week 3.16% and 9.53% year-to-date. These three funds are my current three best performers.

    I'm still looking at IALAX but since about half the fund is invested in tech I've held off on doing a nav transfer from IIVAX into IALAX thinking tech is now overbought. In addition, an asset class now becoming of interest for Old_Skeet is small caps. So I may just hold off on doing something along these lines.

    All-in-all, it was a good week in the markets with the 500 Index up about 2.4%. But, with short interest on the rise this could be an indicator that the near-term upside for the Index might be limited with a pullback on the horizon.

    Have a good Mother's Day weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
  • Bought more Teva Corp bond recently. So many mf and etf holding them
    88163VAD1
  • edited May 2018
    @johnN - am I to understand that your portfolio consists of mostly individual bonds and mutual funds? Or just bonds? I only wonder because in many of the buy/sell threads in the past as well as this one you've only ever mentioned buying individual bonds.
  • Hi guys!
    I sold some PARWX this week. It holds an overweight of healthcare and lots of tech. It had a good week.....sold 25% .....will do more on strength will wait for weakness to buy. Also sold MAPIX taking profit in that will not buy it back again. Following Fido, sell now....weakness will come. Will buy later. The leader in my portfolio is FSPHX. Rock on! The longnecks flow freely now.....it's summer. Let's party! Turn the music up, gather your friends close and smile.....it's all good, bro's!
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • @Puddnhead Please say more about why you dumped MAPIX. Thanks.
  • Hi Crash,
    Yes, if I remember you also have this fund. I have two (2) other funds in this space: FJSCX and FTIPX. Both of them I like better. Also I will throw in FMIJX ..... that also has some holding over there. So it's more just the odd man out, I guess. That's the technical part.....my thoughts now for what that's worth.

    China's President has said he wants quality growth over volume. What does that mean? High debt levels.....the Economist talks about this almost every week. So, China (29.3%) of the fund......again, this won't matter until it does. Japan (26.6%) ......again, I have a fund just for Japan. As long as there is QE, I'm there. South Korea (15.3%) ... think Germany in the 80s. What it cost them to bring the East up to their level. It took years. It was a money pit. Could this happen in Korea? Just thinking......
    I'm sure companies will rush in and it will be costly.
    God bless
    the Pudd
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