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Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!

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  • edited July 2020
    https://i.ibb.co/pwD0dNk/image-1.png
    https://i.ibb.co/BfvRMPZ/image-2.png

    Observations:

    Last month was another good month. Several bond funds made as much or more money than stocks.

    Multi- another good month, several did over 2%. MBS/Securitized are leading at 3+%.

    HY Munis a great month with many funds on the list at 3-4%

    Inter term – did well. Most on the list at 1-1.5%.

    Uncontrain/Nontrad-most with 1-1.5%.

    HY+EM – HY didn’t do much but EM did nicely.

    Corp – 1.9% is pretty good.

    SP500-made 2% PCI 1%

    ===========================

    My own portfolio

    I started the month with GWMEX, smaller position in TSIIX and much smaller in EIXIX and…drumroll..I finished with the same funds.

    Summer is here, stocks + bonds did very well in the last 3 months, I don’t want to add more risk but I see several funds that interest me for potentially better performance without elevating SD which both are not a guarantee.

    Disclaimer: The above are just observations, you must do your own due diligence, I can trade any time
  • Interesting. IOFIX, one month, 4.71%
  • Mark said:

    Interesting. IOFIX, one month, 4.71%

    Interesting.
    IOFIX -22.8% YTD for a BOND fund.

  • Depends when you bought it.
  • edited July 2020
    I owned IOFIX on/off for months until I sold almost all my funds to cash on February 29. I posted at this thread earlier (link)

    February 29 edited February 29 Flag
    @mark
    This is a very unique time for me and why I will answer your question:-)

    My goals as a retiree are: I need to make only 4.5% including inflation (Based on 2019, maybe I need only 4%) average annually to sustain our standard of living. But, I still want to make 6% with the lowest volatility (SD < 3) and never lose more than 3% from any last top.

    YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Last Thursday, I sold half of NHMAX. On Friday, I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX. This YTD (chart) is the answer to why.


    Bottom line: I never buy at bottoms because I'm a momentum investor using charts and trends. At the bottom, the trend is down. I only buy when trends are going up.

  • A note from the moderators -

    This thread and another has been flagged. In my brief review I removed one post and edited another to remove a personal attack. I tried to leave all fund-relevant discussion.

    Please try to keep it friendly!
  • edited October 2020
    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.

    image

    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%

    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.
  • yup, not much going on in bondland. have you traded PCI at all? seems to have some pretty good momo, if'n that's your thing.
  • linter said:

    yup, not much going on in bondland. have you traded PCI at all? seems to have some pretty good momo, if'n that's your thing.

    There is not a lot? Check several Multi sector funds for 1-3 months :-)

    I usually don't invest in PCI/stocks because of their volatility but after I sold everything late Feb+early March I made several successful trades using PCI (twice) + QQQ.
  • It just seems that there is too much uncertainty right now to risk much in bond investing. I prefer to let the election get resolved, hopefully see more certainty in the Covid 19 battle, see if we can provide essential government support to stabilize the market, and then see what looks more promising going forward. I think there is just too much guess work involved in risking major investing actions for now.
  • FD1000 said:

    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.

    image

    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%

    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.

    FD, what is the source for the chart you posted? Many thanks.

  • I created several watch lists at M*. See https://www.morningstar.com/portfolio-manager

    This way I see 1-4 week momentum of my favorite funds that I keep updating which is important to me as a trader. I could not get it anywhere updated daily.
    You can select many columns.
  • edited October 2020
    Semi month observations:
    Core bonds + Core plus bonds are flat for the month but 0.2% for one week.
    HY Muni are down -0.2% for the month and flat for one week.
    No Trad + Multi: up 0.3% for the month and flat for one week but these 2 categories have the most exceptions and differences.

    Early in the Month I replaced NHMAX with HOBIX which did better since then;-)
  • VIX closed over 30 means I got to sell some, so I sold 50% of my portfolio which was in IOFIX. If VIX goes back under 30 I will buy it again.

    It's probably just a temporary spike but I have got very little to lose. I'm already at 15% for 2020 + only one down week at -0.3% (I write down weekly results every weekend).
  • when you have described your strategy in the past, I don't remember you mentioning automatic "sell" criteria based on VIX. Do you follow it daily or weekly? What determines the % you sell?
  • edited October 2020
    VIX is one of my main criteria based on daily movements.
    VIX has been elevated since early September, it finally broke above 30 and that's not a good sign.

    I use other criteria relate only to my goals (low volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top). Making 2.5 times more in 2020 than my goals and I'm fine sitting out for days.
    Interest rates are inching higher since early August, they are lower for several days but I think the 10 year treasury may go higher, maybe 0.9-1%

  • I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.
  • FD1000 said:

    I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

    But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,

  • edited October 2020
    wxman123 said:

    FD1000 said:

    I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

    But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,

    My bond funds didn't take a hit. I had IOFIX,JASVX and HOBIX.

    Below are my portfolio numbers as of yesterday from Schwab
    YTD performance is 14.9%.
    3 year average annually = 10.13%...SD(volatility)=2.16

    In 2018 I lost less than 1% in Q4.
    In 2020 I sold most of my funds in late Feb and all early in March (documented in this thread)
    The key is good timing in/out + using momentum + not your usual funds + several times per year I trade riskier stuff (stocks, ETFs, CEFs, GLD, whatever) for hours-days based on technical analysis.
  • I think FD’s results are an extreme example of why low volatility worked so well (when it did), or VWI_X, or other “defensive” funds. Lose less (much less, often) in the bad times, and then even if you underperform in the “good times” (speaking of “market” returns), you can often outperform over the “long term”
  • edited October 2020
    image

    Observations for one month as of 10/30/2020:

    October was not a good month for stocks and most bonds (Interest rates were up). High rated bonds were down for 1 and 3 months. The best bond categories have been Multi+Non Trad.

    Multi: 0.1% for the month but securitized shined again(IOFIX,DHEAX). HOBIX with 1%.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad: +0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX) did better at 0.8%
    HY Munis: (-0.3) for the month but BSNIX(new fund from Baird) has done better all year.
    High Rated Bonds: (-0.3%) for the month. The index BND -0.56%
    Bank loans: Flat but EIFAX +0.3%.
    HY+EM: HY 0.25 and EM= +0.1 for the month and this time no correlation to stocks.
    Corp: -0.2% for the month. PIGIX -0.5%.
    SP500(SPY) Down month at -2.5, YTD=2.9%.
    PCI CEF (-5.1%) for the month. YTD still at -18.1%

    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized) + NHMAX(HY Muni). Early in the month sold NHMAX and bought HOBIX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HOBIX continues to have good performance for 1-3 months. It was another good month for me, even last week I made 0.1%.

    In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. Since I retired in 2018 I don’t see any reason to be invested when markets crash. I can be out until markets look better. Sure, sometimes it’s just a false alarm but I rather be out. It works well with my trading style and not recommended for anybody else.

    Diversification
    didn’t help you much in October. SPY down -2.5%, FSPSX(International index) -4%, BND -0.56%
  • I notice that both PIMIX and WATFX are not listed funds. Can you advise why they would not be considerd to your list? Are both not suitable holdings at this time.
  • edited October 2020
    First, I don't list all my funds and I don't follow all the funds.
    Second, I list the ones that have done better for 1-3 months but still make some choices.
    PIMIX is on the list under Multi.
    WATFX is a good fund but I prefer GIBLX which is better for 1-5 years.

    Your question is more complicated. What kind of investor are you? do you need a ballast fund? is it for 3 months or 3 years? are you retired? how much risk/volatility you want to take? how the other portion of your portfolio look like
    Sure, PIMIX did better than WATFX last month because rates were up and Multi did better.
    You need to tell me a lot more before I can post my ideas.
    PIMIX is a pretty good fund but used to be a great fund until 01/2018. I prefer TSIIX for longer hold. If you need more ballast, I like PTIAX.
  • Thanks so much. I am 86 and only buy what I can hopefully hold without alot of following but I can try as long as i'm not sick. I have about 370,000 to put into bonds. and I like about 60,000 in cash and 700,000 in stocks.
  • image
    Semi-month update for limited funds
    Observations for one month as of 11/14/2020:


    Rates for 5-10 year Treasury went up in the last month
    Bonds: Surprisingly, it was good for all the above funds. Several funds in Multi, Non Trad, HY muni, EM, Bank Loans, HY, Proffered made over 1%. Even higher-rated bond funds were up too.

    Stocks: did well but QQQ was down after a very strong YTD

    My own portfolio

    In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. I bought back (IOFIX,JASVX) at 99+% at the beginning of the month. YTD: so far it's the best risk-adjusted return I have ever had.
  • image
    Observations for one month as of 11/27/2020:

    November was a great month for stocks and bond and interest rates were up. There were so many good performance monthly funds it was difficult to select just several.

    Multi: Several did 2-3%.

    Uncontrain/Nontrad:
    Several did over 2% for the month.

    HY Munis: Several did over 2% for the month.

    High Rated Bonds: Rates were up but several funds made over 1.5% for the month.

    Bank loans: EIFAX +2.4%.

    HY+EM: Both (FNMIX,HYG) over 3.5%.

    Corp: PIGIX 1.9%.

    SP500(SPY): 7.5%. VXUS(international): 11.6 is doing better than SPY for 1-3 months.

    PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%

    My own portfolio


    I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized). In the middle of the month sold JASVX and bought NHMAX. The performance was so good in November that securitized fund performance lagged the best. It was another good month for me, I made about 2% and it was one of the strongest month.

  • "PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%"

    To be fair, though, this is, I think, just price. It additionally picked up probably 8.5-9% in dividends.
  • ? M* $10k-growth chart shows PCI mtd is ~5.9%, ytd ~-5.2%.
  • The latter figures posted (i.e.-5.2% YTD, 5.9% MTD) are NAV performance, not price performance. IMHO NAV performance is a better indicator of long term performance (i.e. how well the fund is managed), while price performance tells you what investors in the real world actually got.

    See M*'s performance page for the CEF. In the second table ("Trailing Total Returns") make sure that you are looking at the "Daily" tab. Both NAV and price performance are there.

    (All figures are for total performance, including divs.)
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