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Dead Cat Bounce?

edited November 2020 in Other Investing
One day does not a market make.

JFTHOI - An hour before close Monday ...

Dow +450 / +1.5%

S&P +1%

NASDAQ - flat

NYMEX +3%

Gold Miners +2.65%

10 Yr Bond - Steady @ around 0.87%

Comments

  • The market has not fallen nearly enough or hard enough to call this a dead cat bounce. Far more likely, imho is the beginning of a Santa Claus rally which starts more often than not around this time of year.
  • I can see more of a Stimulus package rally after the election in anticipation of Congress finally passing something. Like any junkie, the market desperately needs another hit.
  • Dunno if it's a dead cat bounce or not. I sold my gold miners into the bounce today though.
  • Mark said:

    Dunno if it's a dead cat bounce or not. I sold my gold miners into the bounce today though.

    I've got a long way to go before I do much better than break even with USAGX. Initiated my first position at 41.63 per share on 8/12/2011.

    Bought again at 26.84 per share on 12/14/2012.

    And finally, at 13.62 per share on 6/7/2017.

    Sigh.

    It's a small slice at .0145 portfolio weight. I throw nickles around like manhole covers.
  • edited November 2020
    Whatever this is, I’ll take it. Second hot day in a row. What’s interesting is that the oil and metal sectors are coming along for the ride, both having fallen off a cliff last week.

    Enjoy ..... The Dead Cat Bounce :)

    image
  • Maybe the cat wasn't dead after all?
  • It's clear now why the market has rallied 3 days in a row. The market anticipated legislative gridlock would occur if the Biden landslide failed to occur and it looks like the market has been proven right !
  • @carew388 So I guess the market prefers continued low taxes to a big stimulus package. Maybe makes sense: would probably mean another slow recovery with years of zero interest rates. Or maybe short-term market moves don't mean much?
  • edited November 2020
    Or maybe short-term market moves don't mean much?

    Depends what kind of meaning one is referring to. If looking for some long term trend, than no - a few days’ action doesn’t tell you much. I get whiplash watching oil prices move around. In effect: trying to discern a lasting trend where there is none.

    However, in terms of real gain, a one day move has virtually the same impact on a portfolio as if that move occurred over the entire year. If your portfolio jumps 5% today or this week, than it’s also jumped an additional 5% year-to-date.
  • edited November 2020
    No big move. Strange week with lots of drama. Think things will be more clear next week. I am concern that COVID cases are rising fast with 120,000 cases on a daily basis in US. When will lockdown will take place again? Certain learned something from past March.
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