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Who thinks we are entering a bear market in stocks?

Dex
edited February 2016 in Fund Discussions
I do.
The previous two were the internet bubble and then the housing bubble.
This one probably will be the old fashion slow down in growth type caused by decrease in demand due to workers stagnating wages and over capacity in mfg.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-pmi-falls-suggesting-extended-slowdown-2016-02-02?link=MW_home_latest_news

Comments

  • I think you're right. But it's scary, and seems like deflation is a big part of the picture. In a new normal which is busy re-pricing downward. I'm not old enough to recall the Great Depression. History teacher told us "you could get a full meal for a quarter." Twenty five percent unemployment. We don't have THAT, but the unemployment number is a gigantic lie, anyhow. China IS still operating, but it's a very managed economy. The quarterly numbers over there keep falling. But, I mean, they are still not below the break-even line, eh? ...I think the advantages of creating the EU, given the history, are very real. Maybe the dysfunctionality is the price they pay. Until they can get to where they are both a currency union and a fiscal union. But WHEN?
  • Dex
    edited February 2016
    @Crash
    I don't think we are in for the 1930s right away. My way of thinking is what I have posted in the past we are in a sea change that people are not talking about - free trade, population growth, robotics, free movement of money and movement of mfg to lower cost areas causing deflation and hardship for worker.
    So, I'm expecting a slow grind - years.
    I don't the EU will change but they can show us what to expect a VAT to deal with the debt (for awhile) and social programs.

  • Yes, indeed. You put it well. Like it's happening under our noses, but everyone looks past it. ...Or can't read the signs.
  • @Dex and @Crash

    Noted previous in this thread: "sea change that people are not talking about - free trade, population growth, robotics, free movement of money and movement of mfg to lower cost areas causing deflation and hardship for worker."

    Like it's happening under our noses, but everyone looks past it. ...Or can't read the signs

    A quick Google wordings search indicates the following linkage numerics directed towards papers, blogs and other related online postings:

    --- free trade, 274,000 thousand finds
    --- population growth, 47.4 million finds
    --- robotics, 89.3 million finds
    --- money movement, 84.2 million finds
    --- manufacturing movement, 175 million finds
    --- deflation, 7.7 million finds
    --- worker hardship, 22.3 million finds

    It appears that someone is writing/talking about some of these areas, eh?

    I have mentally reduced the above finds numbers by 50%, due to redundant wording or multiple postings or similar.

    I have not yet finished review of the sites information.

    Regards,
    Catch

  • Pull up a 10-year chart of the Nasdaq biotech index IBB and it will become apparent. The IBB gained 670% from the bear market bottom on 3/9/2009 to its peak in July 2015.
    Although it has lost nearly 40% of its value in the last six months alone it, and other high beta, "risk on" equity holdings have much further to fall.

    What goes up must come down. Way down.
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