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What Are You ... Buying ... Selling ... and/or Pondering? (Summer 2017)

edited June 2017 in Off-Topic
With June now here Old_Skeet has throttled (rebalanced) to his summer asset allocation by reducing equities and raising cash in the process along with expanding his base in asset allocation funds. This was done based on a seasonal investment strategy where I generally load equities in the fall, winter and begin to lighten up in my equity positions come spring. Those that have followed my post know that I do this in a process and not all at once. In addition, I use my market barometer to assist me in setting my equity allocation. The barometer reading peaked in March as new market highs were reached in the S&P 500 Index and has been softening since then. The breath feed in the barometer indicates the number of stocks above their 200 moving average has been in decline for a couple of months. However, no buy signal has yet been generated by the barometer. Some of my investment buddies that follow the big money crowd have noticed they are moving into energy. I think this is worth watching as I am currently overweight in energy at this time. Generally, I strive to maintain at least a five percent weighting in the minority sectors and a nine percent weighting in the majority sectors leaving seventeen percent that can be moved around with no sector being greater than fifteen percent. No doubt, tech has been the big dog of recent but just how much higher can it go? Perhaps, through the summer and as we move into fall a new leader(s) will emerge.

Another concern that I have with this market is that big money has it leveraged up and when they cut and run ... Well, we are in for a big pullback that could lead into a correction.

I am still with my market call (made at the first part of the year) that the S&P 500 Index will reach 2475 (or thereabouts) sometime during 2017.

For me, it is time to take a break and enjoy summer.

I wish all "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet
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Comments

  • Ok, so who's buying at these levels? I'm sitting on a little bit of cash and unsure what to do. I've been told that if you are unsure what to do - do nothing when it comes to investing.
  • Ok, so who's buying at these levels? I'm sitting on a little bit of cash and unsure what to do. I've been told that if you are unsure what to do - do nothing when it comes to investing.

    My ANALysis models just said I should be 100% invested. So I'm creeping in all the way as long as market keeps closing higher.
  • I added to FMIJX today after the sale of NXPI which is being bought by Qualcomm. I wanted to keep my allocation to intl the same, since NXPI is located in Belgium. I am holding a little more cash than normally do, been making some changes to portfolio since transferring more assets to Fido from ML. Wider choices at Fido and had too many funds and etfs anyway. If anyone is interested, will post what I sold/bought since the change.
  • edited June 2017
    TWIMC - Markets are high right now. (Get over it.)

    Ol' Skeet - A good idea labeling these seasonally. Four per-year seems about right. Maybe somebody can assemble the Highlights from the different seasons in a year-end summary. Sure to make great reading.:)

    Sorry guys ... no great new ideas here. But watch your backs.
  • edited June 2017
    Got antsy so I added to IUSG and GLTR - playing both sides of the fence right now.

    http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/gltr/quote.html
  • New position in BCSVX. Eddie Brown and his team do know small caps.
  • My current investment themes are technology and international. I'm thinking of buying VINEX to replace OAKIX and complement VWIGX.
  • next dip, going to add to DSENX, from VNQ, VNQI, and FRIFX (Roth)
    already added FRIFX in another account, from PONDX (rollover)
    sold some PDI for cashflow
  • edited June 2017
    Tony said:

    My current investment themes are technology and international. I'm thinking of buying VINEX to replace OAKIX and complement VWIGX.

    Hmm...in an extended market you are buying small cap instead of large cap international. Please tell me why. I have options in my retirement accounts, but I am very antsy. Will be good to understand your decision which will help me.
  • VintageFreak, I already have VWIGX (foreign large growth, per M*) and I would be buying VINEX (foreign small/mid blend) to replace OAKIX (foreign large blend). I think that VINEX would be a good diversifier and complement to VWIGX. Also, I like its chart with the indicators that I use.
  • I'll be damned! I just looked at VINEX chart. If I used my indicators on it I would have invested in december!

    I need to figure out how to use my models on international funds. Don't have dang data. If you are simply using charts, moving averages, would you mind sharing? I actually make calculations using excel and don't use charts (except to decide when to run my models so I don't do it every single day).
  • VF, I get my data from StockCharts.com. I make my decisions based primarily on weekly charts. I think that you have to find your own chart time frames and indicators/overlays (and their parameters) that you are comfortable with. A moving average that I use has been called the "t-line." As the saying goes, you could look it up.
  • edited June 2017
    The S&P is leaving me in the dust this year. But at 70 now I have different priorities. I need a 2% annual return to not have to dip into my principal for living expenses. So slow and steady for me. And why I don't want to start spending down my principal is beyond me.

    Only a few minor changes from previous posts with my two largest holdings IOFIX and PONDX. I also have PYMDX and IVHIX.
  • edited June 2017
    Tony said:

    VF, I get my data from StockCharts.com. I make my decisions based primarily on weekly charts. I think that you have to find your own chart time frames and indicators/overlays (and their parameters) that you are comfortable with. A moving average that I use has been called the "t-line." As the saying goes, you could look it up.

    Weekly, T-line...got it. TY.
    Unfortunately T-line is too much trading and more whipsaws. For stocks maybe, not sure I could use it for funds.
  • Junkster said:

    The S&P is leaving me in the dust this year. But at 70 now I have different priorities. I need a 2% annual return to not have to dip into my principal for living expenses. So slow and steady for me. And why I don't want to start spending down my principal is beyond me.

    Only a few minor changes from previous posts with my two largest holdings IOFIX and PONDX. I also have PYMDX and IVHIX.


    I would say it is all relative.

    VFINX 9.84% YTD
    IOFIX 6.09% YTD
    PONDX 4.66% YTD

    But look at the SD on PONDX and I assume it is also less than half of VFINX.











  • edited June 2017
    Coincidentally, out of curiosity, earlier this a.m. I checked the 1y and 3y Sharpes (standard calculation of reward/risk) of the S&P 500 (VFINX) vs. PIMIX as of yesterday, per Google Finance. 1y: PIMIX 6.85, VFINX 2.62. 3y: PIMIX 2.20, VFINX 0.98.
  • I just have to buy 1 share of PONDX, and everyone will suffer. Be nice to me.

    Is there anyone on MFO who does *not* own PONDX besides me? Seems to me it is the Firsthand Technology Value (sic) fund of technology for bond holders.

    Someone let me know when it crashes and burns so I can buy.
  • I don't own PONDX. I can't understand what they actually do. Too compli-ma-cated for the likes of me. And if it did understand it I'd avoid the share classes that are still open because the load and 12b-1 are off-putting.
  • @VF: I owed it a few years back. I decided to sell just a few pennies from where I purchased it. Shortly after that it decided to rise, imagine that.
    Derf
  • edited June 2017
    I am guilty of owning it, but only recently. Oddly, many of the Pimco funds were not available at ML which I just left to go to Fido. I balance it with GIBIX and some corporate and preferred funds such as CPXAX and PYACX.
  • No PONDX here. I'd just rather be in PTIAX. And globally, my multi-sector bond fund is PRSNX, a TRP product.
  • edited June 2017
    Hi @VintageFreak

    Relative to other bond funds of all flavors; PIMIX PONDX shine brightly. 10 year annualized total return is just shy of 9%. Hell, these funds run over many equity funds of many flavors for the 10 year period. The alts, long-shorts and similar are NOT worth the effort (from what I see) since the melt.

    This MFO link might help explain a few things; but my overwhelming "tip of the hat" goes to the managers. If either leave, I would have to have a very hard look at returns after the fact.

    http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/3541/pondx-how-does-it-work

    Now, as to buying on a dip; well this chart shows that this is possible, but would be very, very difficult. To my knowledge, there are few charts that reflect this funds upward path. A technical aspect is that the Relative Strength Index of this fund exceeds 90 many times and for fairly long periods, including right now. For the straight techies, this is a sell signal, big time. High numerical RSI doesn't seem to be of consequence for this fund.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PONDX&n=2560&O=011000

    Take care,
    Catch
  • edited June 2017
    Derf said:

    @VF: I owed it a few years back. I decided to sell just a few pennies from where I purchased it. Shortly after that it decided to rise, imagine that.
    Derf

    Hi Derf. We've all had that experience.

    I'm reminded of a Christmas gift suggestion Louis Rukeyser once showed off on his program. A wooden doll or dummy which would say "Buy low. Sell High" when you pulled its string. Very funny. If only it were that easy!

    Looked all over the web but can't find the danged thing.

    Regards
  • anyone in PDI instead or in addition? why or why not?
  • Hi guys!
    Hey, slick! You can post your changes for me. I'd like to see them and why. Have added to FJSCX. Just saw some articles about Japan.....how things are turning....quiet! Don't tell! Also opened a small position in PTIAX again. Sold out of it in the pivot. Also sold out of all pivot positions except the S&P. As of now, all 13 positions in the 401 are pegged at their 52-week high. I missed my opening on VWINX. It's pegged also.
    I have been fooling around with a portfolio mix on the back testing website. It goes like this:
    PONDX - 40%
    VWINX - 20%
    FUSVX - 20%
    GLFOX - 10%
    FSPHX - 10%

    It's just a kick around right now.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Adding to international/emerging markets. Consolidating in this asset class and reducing expenses. Capturing profits, selling out of WAEMX. Adding international small cap Brandes BISMX. Consolidating a couple of large cap international to VEA. Continue to pair SWSSX with IYSIX, which continues a strong run with tech stocks.

  • HI Bob, just curious why you are selling out of WAEMX, mainly expenses?
  • edited June 2017
    @ Pudd, since leaving ML for Fido, I sold the following:
    MMUIX, BX, and ITA and paid off my mortgage, had profits in all but BX
    XLP and added proceeds to RHS was had done better over 3 years
    Sold RYU and added proceeds to VPU
    HIEMX which I could not add to at Fido and bought SFGIX as replacement
    PJP Sold half , had high profit but pure pharma hitting a snag
    Sold OSTIX and PFBPX in favor of PONDX
    Sold NXPI, being bought by Qualcom

    Bought:
    Added PYACX, CPXAX, PONDX to retirement portfolio, was too low in bonds

    I sold LUV today, runup of 60% over 2 years

    One tactic I have used to get into closed funds is convert two funds from my traditional ira (which I had at Fido for a year) to a roth prior to transferring the roth and taxable accounts from ML to establish a position, then added more once the rest of the roth was transferred. Did this with FMIJX, SFGIX after they closed. I am keeping some of my institutional funds I had at ML, just can't add to them, but can buy the retail shares if I want more on some of them.
  • edited June 2017
    I've been looking at the banks, and now officially pondering given their collective pull back.

    In lieu of the normal and customary suspects, I've been looking at PBCT. It's a mid-level regional bank with what appears to be a good foundation, a 4%+ divi, and represents a good value at current prices along with the upside of a buyout as goes with all regional banks.

    It seems like a good candidate for a starting position.
  • HI Bob, just curious why you are selling out of WAEMX, mainly expenses?

    Yeah, it was by far the most expensive fund we were using, and except for recently, it had really underperformed since Geritz left Wasatch. We were also concerned with the huge exodus of assets, from $1.8 billion to $400 million over the last four years. We continue to use Seafarer and Oppenheimer for clients, and MAPIX is a core hold for most, so we have plenty of EM exposure.

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