Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
President Trump ruled out selecting Scott Bessent as the Fed Chair stating:
“I love Scott, but he wants to stay where he is.”
The president said he is considering four candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh.
He declined to name the other…
From Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American:
“Trump sued the Wall Street Journal’s parent company Dow Jones and owner Rupert Murdoch for $10 billion.
But the lawsuit read as if it were written primarily to rile up Trump’s base.
The Wall …
Akre Focus performed well while Chuck Akre managed the fund.
It delivered strong returns with relatively low volatility.
After Chuck Akre retired in 2020, all experienced investment personnel left except for John Neff.
Neff was backed by two somewha…
I ran portfolio backtests to compare results between Portfolio Backtester and Portfolio Visualizer.
Portfolio Backtester (PB)
Changed end date to 07/31/2025 and changed starting value to $100K.
Note: Start date defaults to 01/04/2016 which is the f…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
"On this day in 1861, federal income tax was levied for the first time.
The Revenue Act of 1861 became law, assessing a tax of 3% on all personal income
in excess of $800 a year to help pay for the Civ…
“If the employers replying late happen to give different information from the first batch,
as happened this summer, big revisions are likely.
For example, Friday’s data showed that in May and June, there were about 109,000 fewer jobs
for educators a…
@AndyJ,
On March 28th of this year, the Education Department abruptly cancelled extensions
it previously granted which allowed states/schools additional time to spend COVID relief funds.
Although I can't draw a definitive conclusion, it seems plau…
I've posted the following in another thread and copied it below for your viewing pleasure.
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017.
Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units"…
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017.
Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units" may be the cause
for large revisions in May/June.
“We got some information from people, fr…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1991 George Colony, head of Forrester Research, the prestigious firm that studies
trends in the computer business, said in an interview: "Our belief is that Microsoft has peaked.
I think…
"While DJT is the originator, the GOP in Congress is really responsible,
as they have abdicated their role in government and in setting tariffs, for short term political benefits."
I agree that GOP members of Congress have abdicated their responsi…
The BLS surveys approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies
each month for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
The response rate for this program has plummeted since shortly after Covid was discovered in America.
The BLS ha…
I can access the primary M* website and view my watchlists.
However, the following message is displayed at the top of the webpage:
"Morningstar.com is experiencing some technical difficulties and we are actively working to resolve the issues. We app…
This is about the plans for a new $200M White House ballroom.
Didn't the president have more urgent matters to contemplate rather than
transforming the White House (aka People's House) into Mar-a-Lago II?
Like ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaz…
I've posted the following in another thread and copied it below for your viewing pleasure.
Revisions to payroll employment data are part of the routine process.
The May and June revisions in the latest release were much larger than usual.
Although …
Revisions to payroll employment data are part of the routine process.
The May and June revisions in the latest release were much larger than usual.
Although I don't know what caused these major revisions,
it's likely that BLS process improvements ca…
The quote below is from a Warren Buffett speech to MBA students.
"If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversificati…
@Mona,
I was surprised Ms. Hynes remained the sole manager of Vanguard Health Care
after being promoted to CEO in 2021.
You'd think she had plenty of other responsibilities associated with the CEO role!
FWIW, a M* analyst downgraded Vanguard Heal…
"Amazing what a 10.5% to 12.3% does over 30 years"
Minor variations in annualized returns can lead to significant differences
in terminal value when compounded over many years!
Vanguard Health Care had a 16.4% annualized return during Ed Owens'
lo…
"I share your concern about login credentials.
this is a potential issue with all "aggregators" most of which (Fidelity retrieving your Schwab accounts etc)
in the past used Yodlee."
Using data aggregators allows multiple accounts to be viewed in a…
Investors react to firing of BLS commissioner and Kugler's resignation.
https://www.reuters.com/business/view-investors-react-kuglers-resignation-firing-of-bls-commissioner-2025-08-01/
"His instinct to fire McEntarfer is the wrong knee jerk reaction to have."
Trump's base instinct is to berate, fire, or sue any individual/institution
which has opposing views or provides information he detests.
Regardless if he has a firm understa…
Tamara Keith of NPR discusses the White House renovation with Geoff Bennett of the PBS News Hour.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/a-look-at-trumps-effort-to-reshape-the-white-house-in-his-image
Those are quite large revisions -- 144+147 to 19&14 ( 291-thousand to 33-thousand!)
Do they just guess based on the last 3 months or something and then later collect the real numbers?
We all thought this was going to happen, maybe it's the …
The quality of U.S. economic data, long seen as the "gold standard," may be further called into question.
“The single most important piece of news today is the BLS firing. If you can’t trust the data,
I don’t know how investors make decisions,” sai…
Barry Ritholtz does a great job describing the lay of the land.
The following WSJ article provides details from today's case in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-rough-day-in-court-for-t…
From January 1, 1998 through June 30, 2025, the pharmaceuticals/health products industry
spent significantly more money lobbying than any other industry.
During this period, it spent $6.47B while the "second-place" industry (insurance) spent "only" …
I planned to purchase a different Patek Philippe watch for each day of the week.
I'd then post pictures of these classic watches on the forum to impress members. ;-)
Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste...
https://www…
Jeffrey Ptak shares his views about stuffing private equity/private credit into target-date strategies.
“I’m not necessarily worried about a doomsday scenario where there’s a failure in one target-date series—
say, they get redemptions and can only…
