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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Continuing to add minimum amounts to current positions in OSTIX and RSIVX. Waiting to see tomorrow’s 1-y and 2-y treasury auction on Wednesday. Hesitant to step foot in the secondary market for 2 and 3-y treasuries, though I’d like to lock-in these rates. Missed what appears to have been the peak last month.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Continuing to add to current positions in RSIVX and OSTIX. I look at it as a fixed income “barbell”component to our t-bill ladder.
  • We want the junk -- Apologies to George Clinton
    Since this post has been bumped . . .
    Prof. Snowball's thesis in his column:
    in every measure of returns, more equity is better. In every measure of risk and of risk-adjusted returns, less equity is better. Several earlier MFO essays on the discreet charm of stock-lite portfolios found the same relationship is true for periods dating back 100 years. Lightening up equity exposure reduces your volatility by a lot more than it reduces your returns, so it always seems like the best move for risk-conscious investors.
    And he chose four "Great Owls", which included FAGIX and FPACX as well as OSTIX and RSIVX, as great alternatives to only equities. All four buy more, or less, junk. I chose to run PV against FAGIX because I am not comfortable buying most bond funds whether they're buying junk, or agencies.
    If David Giroux wants to buy junk, well, that's why I bought his fund. Let him worry about it. I don't need to pay above average fees to FPA.I can load up on cash myself. YMMV.
    In this PV I'm looking at GLFOX versus FAGIX and FPACX. I think of GLOFX as a global version of Electric Company, Waterworks, and the railroads. So, Widows & Orphans take a ride on The Reading . . .
    For those that don't follow links, GLOFX has the better standard deviation, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers, a better compound growth rate, lost less money in the worst year of holding, has less correlation to the market, and the lowest beta and highest alpha.

    And here is the original W&O versus FPACX
    . Since July 1993 FPACX is the winnerin returns, while W&O beat FAGIX.
    Here are some runs against what MFO Premium calls The Great Normalization (TGN), which they date from January 2022

    First: W&O versus FPACX and FAGIX
    . My take away is that the fund with the best SD, Sharpe, and Sortino numbers also had the worst CAGR, worst yearly loss, and highest market correlation. YMMV
    And here is W&O Ride the Rails. And it looks to me like the fund with the worst Sharpe and Sortino numbers has lost the least amount of your money. But I don't always spot things correctly. Let me know if you see something different.
    Why did I run these numbers? It's the kind of thing I like to do when people say things like every. I like to dig a little deeper.
  • Bond Index Funds Are Hurting Again. It Isn’t Just Rising Interest Rates.
    On Barron this week, Lewis Braham wrote an article on why bond index funds did so poorly this year relatively to actively managed funds. Several bond funds and ETFs mentioned:
    Pimco Income fund, PONAX
    Vanguard High-Yield Corporate, VWEHX
    BlackRock High Yield Bond Portfolio, BHYAX
    RiverPark Strategic Income, RSIVX
    https://barrons.com/articles/bond-index-funds-interest-rates-active-passive-cc4b40f6
  • Fund Stories & More from Barron's, 10/28/23
    COVER STORY “It’s Time to Stop Crying About BONDs and Buy Them Instead”. 2023 may (hopefully) end the worst-ever 3-yr stretch for TREASURIES. Other investment-grade bonds have also suffered. But the RATES are peaking, and focus should be on what comes next (rather than crying over the spilled milk). Hedge-fund manager Bill ACKMAN has covered his Treasury shorts. Yields are much higher now, and much of the bond return is from their starting yields. Bond prices are related to DURATION and longer-term bonds have more kick (up/down). Taxable bonds are oversold and are more attractive than comparable munis. INFLATION-expectations are moderate around +2.5%. Investment-grade bonds may resume their traditional BALLAST role and 60-40 portfolios also look attractive. RISKS include higher persistent inflation, the FED losing control to BOND VIGILANTES, reduced global DEMAND for Treasuries and DOLLAR. The high short-term yields won’t last and it’s time to extend duration/maturity through intermediate-term bonds and/or bond ladders. Mentioned are funds representing a broad spectrum: VMFXX, PFIAX, AGG/BND, OSTIX, BASIX, BINC (new).
    Long-Treasury etf TLT is having a lousy year again (3rd), but investors continue to pour money into it (#3 etf inflows YTD) in the hopes of a turnaround soon (2024?). The better performing HY JNK may do the opposite.
    (At MFO, ETF incorrectly hyperlinks to something. So, using etf to avoid that. @Charles)
    INCOME. Attractive consumer-staples include CLX, HLN, KVUE (JNJ spinoff), LW, PG; etf XLP.
    FUNDS. Ouch! If you own bond index funds, then you are suffering from a 3rd bad year. Indexing is difficult for bonds. Many issues are illiquid and may not trade often. Active bond funds may be desirable in specialized FI areas.
    Core – Indexed AGG, BND
    Core – Active VCORX
    Multisector PONAX (these combine sovereigns, corporates, HYs, EMs)
    HY – Indexed HYG
    HY – Active BHYAX, RSIVX, VWEHX
    Munis – Indexed MUB
    Munis – Active HMOP, MDNLX, VWAHX
    (by @LewisBraham at MFO)
    FUNDS. BERKOWITZ’ LC value FAIRX is doing well YTD due to its 82% of assets in FL real estate developer St Joe/JOE (extreme concentration). Almost 33% of the $340 million AUM fund is held by Berkowitz’s family members and they don’t mind paying 1% ER. The AUM peaked after Berkowitz was named Manager of the Decade by M* in 2010, but there have been persistent outflows since then. Institutional holders may redeem the fund for JOE stock. Investor/personal returns (M* statistic on asset-weighted returns) have been poor. (by @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Byron WIEN passed away at 90 (1933-2023). He was well-known for his annual lists of 10 Surprises, 20 Life Lessons, Summer Lunches in Hamptons, etc. His philosophy on predictions (and he made many) was that they were meant to be thought-provoking contemporaneously and it didn’t matter whether they turned out to be right or wrong (and he didn’t keep score himself, but others did). A world traveler, his mobility recently was limited by a hip injury, and he relied on Zoom. A nerdy Chicago kid, he was lucky to get into Harvard. His long career was at Morgan Stanley/MS (retired in 2001), Pequot, Blackstone/BX (2009- ). He was quoted often in the media and in Barron’s which did a Cover on him in 2016. He noted that sleep is more critical than diet or exercise. A multimillionaire, he lived modestly – he flew commercial; brought leftover restaurant food home; didn’t move from NYC to FL “because” he wasn’t a billionaire to avoid taxes. His philanthropy was for people who needed help and support rather than for arts and museums. He did endow 2 professorships at Harvard and also funded several scholarships there. He was married twice but didn’t have children and had many godchildren.
    RETIREMENT. According to a study by MetLife/MET, 75% of employees could benefit from high-deductible health plans (that is poor naming/framing) and HSAs. But only 45% of employers offer HSAs and only 29% of employees use HSAs. The employee benefits are from lower plan premiums and because the HSA funds can be used tax-free for qualified medical expenses and in retirement (so, it’s like a super-401k/403b). HSAs are also portable. But HSA contribution must stop when Medicare begins; however, the HSA-funds can still be used for medical expenses. (Incorrect MFO hyperlink for HSA)
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/board/12/market-insights
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Adding more to 6 month T bill and RSIIX, River Park Strategic Income, Institutional. This fund is on NTF platform at Vanguard whereas Fidelity charges $50.
    David provided a detailed write-up on RSIIX/RSIVX.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/04/riverpark-strategic-income-fund-rsivx-april-2023/
  • Bonds: Why you should invest in short-term bonds over longer-term securities.
    Until the end of May 2023, I traded HY Munis. Since then, I'm in funds with short duration and low volatility.
    I don't listen to a perma bear such as David Rosenberg. Most generic typical core funds can't handle the situation too well. DODIX, a good fund, made YTD just 1.6% with high volatility of 4% from peak to trough, while MM=VMFXX made 2.8% and RSIIX/RSIVX+CBLDX did a much better job.
    see (https://schrts.co/mnyiJCSG)
  • RiverPark Strategic Income Fund now advised by CrossingBridge Advisors
    @davidsherman RSIVX/RSIIX appear to no longer be available at Vanguard. A couple of weeks ago, they were listed under Riverpark funds, but I could not place an order presumably due to the change in advisor. Now they have disappeared from the Riverpark list, but Crossing Bridge is not listed as a possible fund family. Any chance these funds will be available at Vanguard again?
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    On April 17th, I simulated the @davidsherman contest with some mad money, by investing in both RSIVX and OSTIX. So far, they are neck ‘n neck.
  • MFO March 1, 2023 Commentary!
    Hi, sma!
    Hmmm ... I may have lost my claim to being a Weeble ("Weebles wobble, but they don't fall down!") but I'm still moving forward more than back.
    Working on setting up manager interviews. Seafarer Value (the only EM fund that didn't crash last year, top 3% since inception), Osterweis Strategic Income (they're one of the shortlist for my rebalanced toward bonds, RSIVX would be an option but I like spreading manager risk a bit), Leuthold Core (in an ongoing effort to give folks an option in a market that refuses to make sense; their portfolio makes frequent small shifts in response to outputs from their quant model) and Standpoint Multi Asset (for about the same reason, just with a shorter track record).
    I need to think about what I need to ask. My worst screw-ups come when I simply listen to the sweet song of a passionate manager or become enchanted by "the story." My better work starts with getting the facts down then pursuing the two or three questions that the public record doesn't allow me to answer.
    Then there's a mystery of North Star Microcap, a fund that Morningstar agrees has a micro-value portfolio but which, in the face of that, they moved to small-core. Up until 2022, they booked double-digit absolute returns in the prior two years when they had bottom tier relative ones. Then 2022 and a complete dump. Hmmm ...
    Oh, right. Also grading, rebuilding the Honors program and meeting a new faculty member and three student research groups today!
    Life's a party.
    David
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Great tip, @carew388. All my TRP stuff is sequestered and married to TRP in the T-IRA. I will be saving-up cash and hopefully buy RSIVX via my brokerage.... *Edited to add: the divs. look lean, but of course, it's Total Return that matters. Thanks, again.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Crash if you're committed to the high-yield sector RSIVX has lost less than half a percent. My Fidelity screener indicated that short-term HY has lost less than HY, and funds from Fidelity, Janus and MetWest have been hammered like TUHYX
  • I Bond Question
    The M* bank loan category lost money YTD.
    By category return, M* means "simply the average of the returns for all the funds in a given category. The standard category average calculation is based on constituents of the category at the end of the period."
    For bank loan funds YTD, I offer two figures:
    Daily return through April 8, 2022: -0.23%
    Quarterly return through March 31, 2022: -0.55%
    Data source:
    https://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FDAAX
    (See the category line in the Trailing Total Returns section; click on quarterly tab for quarterly data.)
    Certainly there are some bank loan funds that made money YTD. The link above (FDAAX) is one such fund. There are also bond funds in several other categories that made money YTD, including:
    High yield bond, e.g. RSIVX 0.50%/0.83% (daily/quarterly)
    Inflation protected, e.g. EARRX 0.17%/0.36%
    Multisector, e.g. ICMUX 0.05%/0.16%
    Muni short, e.g. FHMIX 0.08%/0.07%
    Nontraditional, e.g. RPIEX 3.98%/2.98%
    Short term, i.e. CMFIX 0.10%/0.29%
    Ultrashort, e.g. REPOX 0.08%/0.07%
    World bond, e.g. TPINX 1.14%/1.14% [sic]
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    RSIVX Riverpark Strategic Income Fund is a unique fund in that it invests in various debt securities (some less liquid and many non-rated), distressed debt, with a decent allocation to foreign, some convertibles, and a 15% slug to equities.
    Some holdings are duplicated from RPHYX, which is Riverpark's short-term HY fund. That's probably the more conservative sleeve.
    As @Junkster had mentioned earlier, its held up quite well recently. I think that it's energy and utility investments might have helped there. Its up +0.44% YTD, and over 6% for the past year.
    RSIVX is kind of a "go anywhere bond fund", but with a small allocation to stocks added on. Its been working pretty well in this environment.
  • M* -- Bond Investors Facing Worst Losses in Years
    Fixed income has definitively been a total return blood bath since 3Q21; the math is simple - price moves conversely with duration. Some spread widening has occurred which can be partly attributed to Fed attempts to reduce balance sheet.
    But no bloodbath in your income fund - RSIVX. Curious what lit a fire under it last year and how it is positive YTD this year. You are certainly doing something right.
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    . Also RiverPark has RSIVX…somewhat longer duration than RPHYX, but performing relatively well this year it seems.
    Honestly, if you’re ok with courting risk, IOFIX is as steady as they come ....
    RSIVX is doing great this year; hadn't thought about it in a long, long time. It's been a dog for most of its life, but must be doing something right this year. Will look into it.
    Agree on IOFIX too. Several other securitized OEFs have fallen off the pace lately, but it's keeping on keeping on.
    JD's RCTRX suggestion looks pretty good in securitized, too - never heard of it till this thread.
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    OSTIX, Osterweis Strategic Income (TF at most brokerage houses)…..or ZEOIX, Zeo Short Duration Income (also TF). Also RiverPark has RSIVX…somewhat longer duration than RPHYX, but performing relatively well this year it seems.
    Honestly, if you’re ok with courting risk, IOFIX is as steady as they come (the once-in-a-decade, plus, COVID crash notwithstanding….). 4-5% yield and it generally goes up or stays flat most days. I know it’s not high yield! Don’t kill me for suggesting it haha.
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Not a particular judgement on the funds, but simply matter of not wanting to pay taxes because of all my put income this year. Some of them have indeed stunk up the place, though. In a market they are supposed to excel, they have been found wanting.
    Would like to hear from others which funds they gave up on because I don't want to land in those funds without having the full picture.
    At this point completely out of these funds
    BPRRX, BGRSX (to cut a long story short ...no pun intended)
    APPLX (selling each of last 3 years...what the effing F)
    GRSPX (meh...)
    MDISX, MQIFX (last of the funds I fell in love with the idea of owning, gotten over that the day I sold HSGFX)
    All Artisan funds I owned with "value" in the name but looking to buy back (still one I own, see below)
    RPHYX, RSIVX, WMCNX (Sorry people, I can do better selling puts)
    PRIJX (hoodwinked into the emerging markets value will do well idea, was in my MILs account)
    PVFIX (found alternative, see below)
    Funds I sold partially and still hold
    FMIMX
    ARTKX (if I sell it will generate capital gains)
    COBYX (my condolence to the manager's family who passed, but really when are you going to turn around?)
    Funds looking to sell at least some off to capture tax loss, hard decisions
    IVWAX (my bad luck has to be excellent, manager has to leave, and with all that cash still stinks)
    VGPMX (not "golden" any more)
    VSIAX (bad timing)
    WHGIX, FEVAX (not too worried, but since I don't reinvest dividends, have a loss on cost basis)
    Moves that paid off
    TMSRX (For MILs account)
    PVCMX (Mr Cinnamond, you are not allowed to closed and then re-open new fund any more, it's illegal)
    VLAAX, VALIX (lucky timing)
    ONERX (Jeff Wrona found God. M* says NEGATIVE. F Them. Rock On)
    Out of curiosity, why do you hold so many funds? I'm ballparking statistically here, but if most funds fail to beat the market, aren't you raising your chances of under performing the market with each fund you add?
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Not a particular judgement on the funds, but simply matter of not wanting to pay taxes because of all my put income this year. Some of them have indeed stunk up the place, though. In a market they are supposed to excel, they have been found wanting.
    Would like to hear from others which funds they gave up on because I don't want to land in those funds without having the full picture.
    At this point completely out of these funds
    BPRRX, BGRSX (to cut a long story short ...no pun intended)
    APPLX (selling each of last 3 years...what the effing F)
    GRSPX (meh...)
    MDISX, MQIFX (last of the funds I fell in love with the idea of owning, gotten over that the day I sold HSGFX)
    All Artisan funds I owned with "value" in the name but looking to buy back (still one I own, see below)
    RPHYX, RSIVX, WMCNX (Sorry people, I can do better selling puts)
    PRIJX (hoodwinked into the emerging markets value will do well idea, was in my MILs account)
    PVFIX (found alternative, see below)
    Funds I sold partially and still hold
    FMIMX
    ARTKX (if I sell it will generate capital gains)
    COBYX (my condolence to the manager's family who passed, but really when are you going to turn around?)
    Funds looking to sell at least some off to capture tax loss, hard decisions
    IVWAX (my bad luck has to be excellent, manager has to leave, and with all that cash still stinks)
    VGPMX (not "golden" any more)
    VSIAX (bad timing)
    WHGIX, FEVAX (not too worried, but since I don't reinvest dividends, have a loss on cost basis)
    Moves that paid off
    TMSRX (For MILs account)
    PVCMX (Mr Cinnamond, you are not allowed to closed and then re-open new fund any more, it's illegal)
    VLAAX, VALIX (lucky timing)
    ONERX (Jeff Wrona found God. M* says NEGATIVE. F Them. Rock On)
  • How are your bond funds holding up?
    I've moved on from bond funds. I never understood them, and I made that clear several times on MFO. With my newly discovered freedom selling puts, I have absolutely no use for them.
    The only out and out bond funds I owned were RSIVX and RPHYX. I expect to lose them by EOY. SIRIX and SSIIX I have to think about. I might get rid of some balanced funds as well. This year I'm going to greatly reduce the number of funds I own. I have previously belittled nonsense about owning "too many funds". I still don't have issue with it. Just that I've found a better mousetrap.
    Most of all, I'm sorry to say WFH due to Covid has been good to my health as well as wealth. I will not apologize for it. 007 can take a hike AFAIC.