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(New) Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
I did a February 2014 month ending Xray analysis on my portfolio this morning to see how my fund managers might have changed their positioning. I hold a good number of hybrid type funds (about a third) within my fifty two fund portfolio which is divided into twelve sleeves with each sleeve holding between three to six funds with the exception being the two cash sleeves. I wanted to find out how my fund mamagers might have tweaked their fund's assets. I discovered that they had collectively reduced fixed income by (-3%) and alternative type assets by (-1%) and raised their allocation to cash by (+1%) and domestic stocks by (+1%) and foreign stocks by (+2%). Within equities some of the note worthy changes were LCV was decreased and LCG and MCG were increased along with emerging markets which went form 3.8% to 5.6%. This is "partly" due to a little buying I have done in e/m since the first of the year but this only represents a small amount of the increase.
Year-to-date I am up 1.8% while my bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up 1.6%.
Although I have been doing very little … it seems my fund managers have been active.
In my play money portfolio, closed out QLD for a small profit. Holding EEV and FXP. Recently purchased HYD and URE. Waiting for entry into KBE and/or KRE.
Bought starter positions in GPROX and RNDLX & added a little to PMHIX. I'm probably a little late getting started on RNDLX, but it still looks like better valuation than high yield right now.
I had a placeholder here for when I rolled a 401K into my Schwab IRA account...but wasn't getting a clear signal from Schwab as to my ability to add to this after March 5...even after speaking with multiple VPs.
Took some money from MACSX for this allocation...so, better safe than sorry.
I just began an initial $2,000 allocation to POAGX and GPEOX. I also bought FNMA (Fannie Mae) back in August and added to it in January and February. I own three of the Fairholme funds and added to them as well. FNMA has actually been my best stock so far this year. It's also my biggest question mark going forward because of its political history/future.
Used collateral damage from XOM news today to get back into APA. Perhaps lady luck will look more kindly on me this go. Last time I bought APA, it was at $90. It closed today under $80. Can't keep dropping forever, right? (Ha!)
I'm pondering the idea that now might be a perfect time to start dollar cost averaging into an emerging markets fund. Safest thought I have there is EEMV.
If I were to start a new position in a domestic equity fund I think I would go with MPGFX.
Despite the relatively enthusiastic MFO profile, the M* chart is underwhelming. It lacks the proof of protection against serious losses as in 2008 and it doesn't beat its comparator over LOF. The anointment seems premature. I realize one can't automatically punish funds that lacked the opportunity to prove themselves in 2008, but I'd like to see an ER multiple of outperformance against a reasonable comparator. Dodson probably is a nice guy and his family trusts him with their money, but he exceeds his comparators over 3 yr by less than his ER and lags subsequently.
BRTNX did well protecting against loss in Q3 '11, and it's the only U.S. stock fund I've followed that was positive in Q2 '12, other than health care sector funds. The up-down capture ratio numbers are good ... but not hugely compelling. I'd put AKREX a notch above it for return:risk, but it's still very good by that metric. A fund like BRTNX shouldn't be expected to beat funds that don't do much if any risk avoidance during a very bullish market run.
The M* quantitative rating pretty much has it pegged: Avg+ return, Low risk.
I'll weigh in here since I think most active funds are over priced.
I compare everybody against D&C, which is only 0.53 for DODGX and 0.65 for DODWX (global). Single share class. No load.
My back goes up at anything over 1%, unless it is long short, hedged, or perhaps EM.
I'm OK with young funds to be higher on low AUM. But, I really want to see that come down as AUM grows.
If I remember, BB capped ER at 1%, even when FAIRX launched.
Reading David, I think he's a bit more fundamental and flexible. He looks to see if the manager adds value, evidenced ultimately by superior returns over long run.
I compare everybody against D&C, which is only 0.53 for DODGX and 0.65 for DODWX (global). Single share class. No load.
My back goes up at anything over 1%, unless it is long short, hedged, or perhaps EM.
I'm OK with young funds to be higher on low AUM. But, I really want to see that come down as AUM grows.
If I remember, BB capped ER at 1%, even when FAIRX launched.
Reading David, I think he's a bit more fundamental and flexible. He looks to see if the manager adds value, evidenced ultimately by superior returns over long run.
Used the pullbacks this week to populate my play money portfolio with a hedged country strategy, energy and banking.
Countries aren't all correlated at the moment. I am continuing short position in broad EM (EEV) and China (FXP) until they get stopped out but bought long positions in specific country ETFs - Germany (EWG), Australia (EWA), Hong Kong (EWH) and South Korea (EWY). Taiwan (EWT) is on the shopping list.
In addition, bought positions in Energy (IYE, USO) and Banking (KRE).
Over the last several weeks, I have been slowly selling FAIRX and buying PYSAX (load waived at Schwab), individual dividend paying stocks (TGT, BLK), a little DFE as momentum play. Momentum portfolio continues to hold QQQ, XLV, IWO.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Year-to-date I am up 1.8% while my bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up 1.6%.
Although I have been doing very little … it seems my fund managers have been active.
Old_Skeet
Stay warm, Derf
early last week.
I've got a wee mo play on with silver miners - ASM, MGN and the etf SIL.
rono
I had a placeholder here for when I rolled a 401K into my Schwab IRA account...but wasn't getting a clear signal from Schwab as to my ability to add to this after March 5...even after speaking with multiple VPs.
Took some money from MACSX for this allocation...so, better safe than sorry.
Anyone got the sand to play nat gas? Have you been watching the price. Wow. Nose bleed action.
rono
I just began an initial $2,000 allocation to POAGX and GPEOX. I also bought FNMA (Fannie Mae) back in August and added to it in January and February. I own three of the Fairholme funds and added to them as well. FNMA has actually been my best stock so far this year. It's also my biggest question mark going forward because of its political history/future.
Martha
If I were to start a new position in a domestic equity fund I think I would go with MPGFX.
Boring I know, but that's just the way we like it
Here's link to David's proile:http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/03/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgix/
But if you do decide to own it, you'll probably be subject to some "group think" (aka, lemming) criticism on the board. Comes with the territory
Given that you seem to be more risk averse, I like Bretton Fund more and more...BTRNX. Maybe you too should consider.
Here is M* performance plot since inception:
Something tells me that Stephen Dodson will turn out to be for mid caps/all caps what the great Charlie Dreifus (RYSEX) has been for small caps.
And, I trust that as AUM increases, ER will come down...substantially.
Here is David's profile: http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/06/bretton-fund-brtnx/
I realize one can't automatically punish funds that lacked the opportunity to prove themselves in 2008, but I'd like to see an ER multiple of outperformance against a reasonable comparator. Dodson probably is a nice guy and his family trusts him with their money, but he exceeds his comparators over 3 yr by less than his ER and lags subsequently.
The M* quantitative rating pretty much has it pegged: Avg+ return, Low risk.
I compare everybody against D&C, which is only 0.53 for DODGX and 0.65 for DODWX (global). Single share class. No load.
My back goes up at anything over 1%, unless it is long short, hedged, or perhaps EM.
I'm OK with young funds to be higher on low AUM. But, I really want to see that come down as AUM grows.
If I remember, BB capped ER at 1%, even when FAIRX launched.
Reading David, I think he's a bit more fundamental and flexible. He looks to see if the manager adds value, evidenced ultimately by superior returns over long run.
Countries aren't all correlated at the moment. I am continuing short position in broad EM (EEV) and China (FXP) until they get stopped out but bought long positions in specific country ETFs - Germany (EWG), Australia (EWA), Hong Kong (EWH) and South Korea (EWY). Taiwan (EWT) is on the shopping list.
In addition, bought positions in Energy (IYE, USO) and Banking (KRE).
Real estate (URE) got stopped out with a profit.