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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MFO 3Q Fund Metrics & Ratings - Tough Going Lately
    Hey, a closer look at SEQUX...
    image
    Its UI is actually quite low this past year, even three years. Unfortunately, the SP500 UI is even lower. Compounding this issue is excess return. Compared to SP500, SEQUX has delivered only half the return.
    During bull runs, equity volatility typically drops, and those funds that are more defensive, like SEQUX or many all-asset funds, drag, especially this past year as bond and commodity volatility is up.
    But that does not mean they are "wrong," at least with regard to the way they chose to handle risk, but their ratings will invariably suffer. (Look at COBYX, for example, and the whole list above.)
    Bottomline: If the market is always up, three years may not be very telling from a risk adjusted perspective.
    That is something I think we are in-g on.
    Thanks David. Hope all is well.
  • 5 reasons why cash is king [ just curious what is ur cash % holding?]
    Experience has taught me I am not good at market timing. So, I mostly let fund managers do this for me. My major fund holdings with substantial cash positions include FPACX, FPIVX, ICMBX, ARIVX, YAFFX, WEMMX, COBYX, and BERIX. The fund analyzing tool I use tells me my portfolio currently has 18% allocated to cash/near cash, with most of that coming from these holdings. I also have 6 % of my portfolio set aside in funds including RPHYX and MWCRX for use if there is a MAJOR (maybe 35% or more) decline in the stock market. I would be comfortable selling those two holdings with some loss in that situation. So, all told, I have about 25% of my portfolio currently waiting for a better time to invest in more volatile stuff. I also have just over 50% currently invested in the stock market and the remaining 25% in bond funds including OSTIX and RSIVX. The bond funds presently mostly tend towards short term and high yield.
  • MFO 3Q Fund Metrics & Ratings - Tough Going Lately
    So, some links below to current ratings on long term top-tier performers. All notable. All struggling this past year...or more.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=TCWAX+OAKIX+UMBWX+TIGAX+SHSAX+PRHSX+VCHSX+MHNAX+UNHIX+HABDX+PTTRX+AMANX+YAFFX+BBTEX+FEVAX+FMIHX+GABEX+MPGFX+MVPFX+PIXAX+&submit=Submit
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=CVGRX+FTQGX+MFCFX+SEQUX+PRGFX+WTEAX+AMRMX+ARDEX+AUXFX+FAIRX+BAEIX+FMIEX+IEF+PMHIX+VBLTX+ADAIX+BCMSX+ACRNX+MERDX+NBGNX+&submit=Submit
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=RYSEX+ARTQX+DEFIX+FPPTX+PHO+FOBAX+MACSX+PVFAX+RYSEX+PRSVX+WEMMX+VVPSX+CCASX+WAAEX+WSCVX+WSTCX+UNSCX+WGRNX&submit=Submit
    Broad category set.
    This board especially should recognize a lot of familiar names:
    Oakmark International I (OAKIX)
    Waddell & Reed High-Income A (UNHIX)
    PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX)
    AMG Yacktman Focused Service (YAFFX)
    BbH Core Select N (BBTEX)
    FMI Large Cap (FMIHX)
    Mairs & Power Growth Inv (MPGFX)
    PIMCO Fundamental IndexPLUS AR A (PIXAX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Sequoia (SEQUX)
    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX)
    American Funds American Mutual A (AMRMX)
    ASTON/River Road Dividend All Cap Val N (ARDEX)
    Auxier Focus Inv (AUXFX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
    AQR Diversified Arbitrage I (ADAIX)
    Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
    Neuberger Berman Genesis Inv (NBGNX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Artisan Mid Cap Value Investor (ARTQX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Tributary Balanced Instl (FOBAX)
    Matthews Asian Growth & Inc Investor (MACSX)
    Royce Special Equity Invmt (RYSEX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value (PRSVX)
    TETON Westwood Mighty Mites AAA (WEMMX)
    Vulcan Value Partners Small Cap (VVPSX)
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth (WAAEX)
    Walthausen Small Cap Value (WSCVX)
    Ivy Science & Technology C (WSTCX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)
    SEQUX, arguably greatest mutual fund ever...no longer a Great Owl.
    FAIRX, what a difference a decade makes...although, still top quintile across last two full cycles (through September anyway).
    Perhaps somehow related to bond yield? IEF or TLH?
    Valuations? Defensive funds not buying into current bull market?
    Or, just the normal ebb and flow of investing styles across cycles?
  • Fairholme Fund's Bruce Berkowitz On This Weekend's Wealthtrack
    Another fund with few stocks is Cobyx (I think) which is Cook and Bynum. Last time I looked at its website the fund was holding 8 stocks. Take COBYN and Fairholme and you can be a portfolio manager - - just keep up with their website postings and read this forum for updates.
    Found it, COBYX, 7 stocks.....
    image
  • FAIRX or individual stocks?
    There are multiple reasons I don't buy stock. I don't have time during the day. I don't trust numbers reported by companies. I want to find managers who are lucky than good and have some inside information (mostly called as research...BS!!!), which I don't have.
    I own FAIRX. I own COBYX. I'm good with that.
  • Fairholme Fund's Bruce Berkowitz On This Weekend's Wealthtrack
    Another fund with few stocks is Cobyx (I think) which is Cook and Bynum. Last time I looked at its website the fund was holding 8 stocks. Take COBYN and Fairholme and you can be a portfolio manager - - just keep up with their website postings and read this forum for updates.
  • How Expensive Are Stocks ? (Not Terribly)
    Both approaches sound good to me. Suspect one needs to take more of a long term view with funds. As several have pointed out above, valuations can stay above average for quite a while and folks can get frustrated (eg., ARIVX, COBYX). Longer term, I believe value wins out. Here's chart from GVAL book:
    image
  • article from Deysher
    manager of pinnacle value PVFIX about funds with high cash levels. My guess is that these funds will suffer for a while before being vindicated. This is just a guess (I don't know anything). I own the following funds from the article: FPACX, PVFIX, and FPIVX. I recently read a Q&A with Alice Schroeder (who wrote book about Buffett) and she mentions how Hussman has stuck to his guns. We shall see. The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent (I guess this is related to shorting maybe). Other funds mentioned in article with high cash stake: ARIVX (asto river), ICMAX (intrepid), COBYX (Cook & Bynum), LLSCX (longleaf), IVWIX (IVA), WPVLX (Weitz), YACKX (Yacktman), and SGOVX (first eagle).
    http://www.pinnaclevaluefund.com/reports/AAII Journal Cash Dilemma May 2014.pdf
  • Moderate portfolio allocation
    That said, I bet that, like me, you do not have everything in one or two or three of the AOx ETFs, nor does anyone else here either.
    But I often think investing 100% in VWINX or DODBX or VWELX or MAPOX or FPACX or WBMIX or SEQUX or COBYX would be just fine.
  • an "active share" threshold
    Reply to @equalizer: One of the things I'm curious about with this list is why the WSJ chose the indices for comparison they did. Creates a number which often doesn't jive with what the fund is saying.
    ARTGX, for instance, is indexed by the WSJ to the NASDAQ 100, which oddly creates an active share of 79%. In Artisan's fund literature, they list the number as 90.4%.
    FPACX, to pick another popular value oriented fund, is also linked to the NASDAQ 100, for a score of 78%. FPA lists it as 90.3%.
    PARNX is listed by WSJ as 79% against the NASDAQ, and by Parnassus as 92.6% against the S&P 500.
    DODWX is listed by WSJ against the "Russell Top 200 Value Tr", whatever that is, at 76%. Dodge and Cox don't provide the number, but the benchmark they use is the MSCI World Index.
    Some standardization would seem to be necessary for this to be useful.
    edit: Looking farther, a lot of the Journal's "most similar benchmark" choices are comical. In the same category "FTSE High Dividend Yield" you have COBYX, BRUFX, and LSFIX, as well as several each of natural resources, consumer products, and healthcare funds...
  • Professor David Snowball featured in Bottom Line Personal
    Thought the MFO community would like to know.
    David Snowball had an article featured in Bottom Line Personal (February 15, 2014 edition) titled “Actively Managed Funds with Low Volatility.” The three funds that he mentioned in the article were Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX) … FPA Crescent (FPACX) … and, Osterweis Fund (OSTFX).
    Old_Skeet
  • What were your "UP" funds today on a largely "down" day?
    Some other notables:
    COBYX
    DODIX
    DBLTX
    PTTRX
    PAUIX
    FOCIX
    RNSIX
  • Best Performing Funds On A Down Day (Friday)
    It's interesting to see which funds owned by readers held up best on a strong down day like today. Here are my "winners" for the day:
    Bond Funds
    RPHYX 0.00% change
    PFODX 0.00%
    Mixed Asset Funds
    MASNX -0.26%
    BERIX -0.71%
    Stock Funds
    COBYX 0.00% (hum!)
    ARIVX -0.35%
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show 12/9/13: Guest: Our Own David Snowball
    Here's the short version of a 17 minute chat.
    The available research points to three conclusions:
    1. we could close 80% of all mutual funds without any noticeable loss to anyone other than the managers.
    2. more and more money is pouring into doomed funds, something like 30% of inflows are into "closet index" funds.
    3. there are characteristics which increase the prospects for future outperformance. Those include a focused portfolio, independence from the index, an alignment of the advisor's interests with the shareholders (risk-consciousness generally flows from that alignment) and reasonable expenses. In general, those characteristics are difficult if not quite impossible to achieve in a very large fund.
    At Chuck's prompting ("well, David, can you name a fund ...") I singled out Beck, Mack & Oliver Partners (BMPEX) as part of a group of owner-operator funds which also includes Bretton, Cook & Bynum, Frank Value and Oakseed Opportunity. I also allowed that if one were interested in a large fund, you could do worse than Tweedy, Browne Global (TBGVX) or Vanguard STAR (VGSTX).
    In his "hold em' or fold 'em" round, which is one minute assessments of funds (made in complete ignorance of the investors' needs) submitted by his listeners, I dissed Royce Low-Priced (RYLPX) and Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and endorsed Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDAIX, with a side-note that this is not a high-dividend fund), Seafarer (SFGIX with a side-note that Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund and the yet-to-be-launched Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets would offer higher octane exposure to the same universe), and Cook & Bynum (COBYX).
    For what it's worth,
    David
  • Reminder: David Snowball On Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Monday, 12/9/13
    I'll play David...
    PRPFX - Fold
    COBYX - Hold
    SFGIX - Hold
    WAFMX - Hold

    RLPIX - Fold
    VDAIX - Hold
    VHDYX - Fold
  • Reminder: David Snowball On Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Monday, 12/9/13
    FYI: Funds to be discussed.
    Regards,
    Ted
    BMPEX, TBGVX, VGSTX During "Hold It or Fold It:" PRPFX, COBYX, SFGIX, WAFMX, RLPIX, VDAIX, VHDYX
  • Risk Management with MF portfolio
    Reply to @DavidV: On Beck, Mack, click on the Featured Funds tab at the top of the page to get to our profiles (written and audio) of the fund, plus an mp3 of a call with the manager and links to other resources.
    On the second, it depends on the family. Tweedy, Browne has the same team manage each fund and they use the same discipline with each. F P A has six different strategies, two of which (absolute return income, SMid-quality growth) are quite distinct from the others.
    In general, "absolute value" managers buy only when they find compelling values. Many of them have found nothing attractive in months, and have let huge cash warchests accumulate. These folks offer fair downside protection, though at the cost of some upside. Such managers include Mr. Romick at F P A Crescent (FPACX), Messrs Cook and Bynum of Cook & Bynum (COBYX), Mr. Pye of F P A International Value, Mr. Dodson of Bretton (BRTNX), Mr. Cinnamond of Aston River Road Independent Value (ARIVX) and Mr. Wydra of Beck, Mack. They often have very fine five (ten, fifteen and twenty) year years, but often look like slack witted losers in the one-to-three year range.
    On the general topic of risk management, you might look at a long/short fund. I have a minuscule position in Aston River Road Long/Short (ARLSX), which I opened as a way of motivating much closer examination of the fund. We've already profiled it and I wouldn't be surprised to find myself move more money in before too long.
    For what it's worth,
    David
  • A Few Good Reasons To Hoard Some Cash Now
    Not bad.
    Harder to swallow, however, when ERs are high.
    I love the portfolio managers at Cook & Bynum COBYX. But, they still charge 1.49%. Granted, they are still small (but no longer fledgling) at $138M AUM.
    Ditto for FPACX. Mr. Romick has done very well. But even this "Investor First" house charges too much at 1.16% on $15B AUM. Here's what M* thinks about the price of this (otherwise) Gold rated fund:
    image
    And then there's ARIVX at 1.42%, $727M and 64% cash...don't get me started. But, again, I love the manager, just hate the ER.
  • Any Comments on Raymond James?
    Hopefully, not as bad (notorious) as Edward Jones.
    Hey, why use a middle-man at all?
    Why not just open account(s) at Dodge & Cox? Invest in DODIX if your needs are fixed income.
    Or, Vanguard. Invest in VWIAX, if your needs are conservative.
    Or, open account with SEQUX, FPACX, WBMIX, or COBYX? If your needs are moderate.
    From what I've seen, anybody that can post on MFO does not need to pay Edward Jones, Raymond James, etc. to invest their money with attendant fees.
    Advisors, most anyway, are part of an endangered species. Seriously.
  • Investing: Some New Funds Worth Considering
    John and I had a nice chat over the noon hour yesterday. His general theme was "now we can get back to normal finance topics, rather than 24/7 debt crises." Mine was, "yep, but it's not going to get any easier." John does read MFO (you might be surprised by the wide variety of folks - from the WSJ, Baltimore Sun, NY Times and a slug of fund firms - who scan both the board and the fixed content) and suggested that he'd rather talk first, instead of just "borrowing" ideas.
    My suggestion was to look for managers who'd help investors make it through turbulent, rapidly shifting markets. I clustered those into two groups:
    • risk conscious managers with experience and flexibility in their investment mandates - Seafarer (SFGIX), F P A Paramount (FPRAX), RiverPark Strategic Income (RSIVX).
    • risk conscious managers who have a sensible, steady investment discipline that they might actually be able to get investors to understand and buy into - Beck Mack & Oliver Partners (BMPEX), Oakseed Opportunity SEEDX), Frank Value (FRNKX), Bretton (BRTNX), Cook & Bynum (COBYX).
    Afterwards, we talked about international travel and John's observation that being perceived as disrespectful was a much bigger problem than not speaking the local language. Romans, he noted, mostly spoke enough English to help you get by and enjoy the city -- unless you were wearing shorts and ball caps and galumphing around.
    For what interest it holds,
    David