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‘Extreme’ S&P 500 Momentum, VIX Signal Drop

edited January 2012 in Off-Topic
Time to be getting nervous?

⇒ Bloomberg Article

Comments

  • edited January 2012
    Maybe I should go to the bank and get a CD, which pays 0.000000000001%. I remember I had an ING 6MO CD around '08 that paid 4.5%. The CDs I'm seeing are not even worth the trip to the bank (and some are not even advertising/posting short-term CD rates.) Everbank has foreign currency CDs (some of which pay decent yields), but meh. Within the last two weeks, I've gotten more aggressive (a mix of ETFs, funds and a couple of new long-term stock holdings/additions to current holdings) and I think what happened yesterday reinforces the need to continue to stay invested to at least a comfortable degree, whether I agree with what's going on or not.

  • Well, of course I'm not suggesting dumping everything into those highly rewarding alternatives that you mention. But I'm looking at the 40/50k that we're ahead ytd and thinking about skimming that off the table...
  • edited January 2012
    Hey OJ & Scott ~ It's been a smooth uphill ride thus far in 2012. I'm also thinking of taking some profits as 2008-9 is still fresh in this Pop Tart's mind, and the S&P is up so much from the October lows. However the Fed just juiced the markets by saying that rates won't change until at least late 2014, so maybe we'll go even higher. I dunno...

    I haven't skimmed any profits yet because the greedy side of me says to stay in until something weird happens, and my greedy side usually wins. On the other hand, this nice rise since Oct. is kinda weird in itself. Plain old profit-taking could cause a sell-off. I have lotsa skin in the game but at the first sign of a waterfall, I'm taking some profits to be reinvested later. Btw, my micro cap & tech holdings have done the best so far this year with the miners picking up steam. FWIW : )
  • Reply to @Old_Joe: Certainly, and taking some off the table is understandable. Just irritated at the lack of cash alternatives. Paypal apparently now has a Microlending (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroPlace) site that provides a yield, but I haven't looked into it much yet.
  • edited January 2012
    Reply to @scott: We still keep $$ on deposit at local bank. Tell me why we bother? Wouldn't cash be safer in a safety box at bank or elsewhere? Think of what can go wrong with a bank account: bank failure, identity theft, fraud, embezzlement, accounting or computer error. Then there's possible actions by creditors, tax collectors, x-spouses or other litigants. Why accept these (admittedly small) risks for 0.00000000001% interest?
  • Reply to @hank: I dunno... if you remember the Beagle Boys, they were pretty good at Scrooge's safe deposit boxes...
  • edited January 2012
    Reply to @Old_Joe: Not familiar with Beagle Boys ... but get the drift. Come to think of it - a 65+years old f*** trying to keep track of all them paper bills is itself scary. Can't even remember my phone number some days.:-)
  • edited January 2012
    Reply to @hank: the villains of Scrooge McDuck. I watched every episode of "Duck Tales" as a kid.
  • Reply to @scott: Another generation gap! Didn't even know about "Duck Tales" (Tails?). Got my fix from the comic books.
  • edited January 2012
    Yep, saw something similar re Baltic Shipping Index. Rates falling is a bad portent - and they have been. Never understood TA or paid much attention, but admire those who follow It and make money. Do know, however, ya might well have talked self out of taking any market risk past decade - to your detriment. Indexes lookin pretty anemic over 15 years. Yet, many funds waded through the muck to manage decent returns. Check out: PRPFX, PRWCX, OAKBX. No, don't accept those technicals if calling for prolonged bear. However, believe they're correct if lookin for brief pullback followed by resumption of upward trend. With indexes up near 15% past 6 months, we pulled bit off the table this week - hoping to put it to work @ lower prices next few months. FWIW .......

    (PS This turkey was substantially revised morning after)
  • edited January 2012
    Reply to @Old_Joe: "Duck Tales" was part of the last great era of Saturday Morning Cartoons (or the last era really, it doesn't seem like there's much Saturday Morning programming for kids anymore, aside from hyperactive nonsense).

    "Tales", which was arguably the most successful of Disney's several animated shows during the time period (and continues to have something of a cult following 20+ years later), was Scrooge McDuck taking care of his nephews (Huey, Dewey and Louie) and going on adventures with them around the globe in search of treasure, or just trying to avoid villains (such as the Beagle Boys.)

    As for safety deposit box issues, I found this article from a few years back:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-safe-deposit-box-is-not-the-safest-place-to-stash-your-cash
  • Morn'in scott,

    Good note about safe deposit boxes.

    A few other notes; as I am familiar with this subject:

    ---the legal access per court order and related is correct
    ---the linked article in your note has one problem, in that it states customers closed bank/cu accts and then stashing monies in SD boxes. One needs to have an active acct with a financial institution to obtain the right to rent a SD box; with the exception of a private secured facility.
    ---flooding, as noted about Hurricane Katrina may cause damage to contents; but this depends upon the vintage of the vault door and/or whether the SD box is actually located within a walk-in vault. Some box sections are located outside of a vault, due to limited space in a vault and customer demand. Many older walk-in vaults have such fine machining for the stainless steel vault door and matched door frame, that water leakage into the interior is not a concern; with the exception of water levels higher than 4 feet. To the positive side of a full walk-in vault is that it is virtually proofed against tornados and/or fire; and when time locked (door closed, is most difficult to access from the outside by bad guys.
    ---SD box contracts should always have more than one signer for access
    ---the most common problem related to SD boxes is that whomever else has legal access; and there is a death or other problem, person(s) number 2 who do have contractual access to the box.......can not find either (2 customer keys are issued) key that is hidden away at home. All parties with access need to know where the keys are stashed.
    ---related to "don't know where the keys are"; is that this causes problems when access is needed because insurance policy and related documents are in the SD box; and a family member needs these documents to process, especially in the event of a death. This is an important area of consideration, as to what goes into a SD box.
    ---in the event of lost keys, whether during a family emergency or other; the customer now must process legal documents to obtain access in some cases, and at the very least; expect to pay about $150 to have the box drilled open.
    ---lastly, except for a private facility in a large metro area; one's access times are limited to the operational hours of the bank/cu.

    Take care,
    Catch














  • A fine morning to you, Mr. Catch! Up early (5am out here).

    Re "most difficult to access from the outside by bad guys"- not the Beagle Boys- they can get into anything. Just ask Scrooge!
  • Wow, a Duck Tales reference, that's awesome. Scott, you just exposed your age -- got to be early 30s!
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