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Absolutely super post Hank. One that younger investors should save as a reference.Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?
Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an“uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
*From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909
Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an “uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?
It’s also possible she had it right initially and her editors / spell-checker changed it. Either way it’s frustrating to see something like that make it to publication.her eds also let through her stupid misspelling of pique in the lede
It’s called Downsizing Old Joe.Perhaps one of the "financial questions" was "Do you know how to post a link properly on a financial site?".
No more kids for you @old_joe?Too many children. Now, there's an interesting financial subject that I can't recall being discussed on MFO in the last ten years or so.
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