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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PIMCO Hires John Studzinski
    FYI: PIMCO, one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers, has hired John Studzinski as Managing Director and Vice Chairman of PIMCO in its Executive Office. Mr. Studzinski, who has spent most of his career working in Asia and Europe, brings to PIMCO 30 years of experience as a trusted financial and strategic advisor who has forged deep bonds among the world’s leaders in business, finance, government and NGOs. He will be based in PIMCO’s New York office and will report to Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO’s Chief Executive Officer.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-hires-john-studzinski-managing-113000116.html
  • SStocks Near Record Highs, but Risks Continue to Mount
    @Ted: An excerpt from a current Washington Post Article:
    "Turkey’s woes could be just the start as record global debt bills come due"
    "Ten years after the worst financial panic since the 1930s, growing debt burdens in key developing economies are fueling fears of a new crisis. For now, few experts think that a broader crisis is imminent. But the danger of a financial contagion should be taken more seriously in light of a massive increase in global debt since the 2008 downturn, the economists said."
  • SFGIX/SIGIX Open Again?
    I see no evidence that total assets is the culprit for SFGIX under-performance. 2.2B is not at all to high for an EM fund concentrated on large caps. Look at the T. Rowe Price fund, PREMX. It has 5.5B in assets. 2.2B for a large cap fund should not be a problem IMHO.
    Read what Foster says in his reviews. He is pretty honest about the funds short-falls and under-performance. Basically, wrong bets on stock picks, countries and sectors. He talks about how he thought he positioned the fund for downside protection - and it didn't pan out. Quite honest.
    The Fund’s poor performance relative to the benchmark stemmed from several holdings that produced acceptable financial results, but which disappointed some segment of investors (but not Seafarer). Many of these companies operate in the information technology sector, either in software or manufacturing: Venture of Singapore (a contract manufacturer of high-end electronic devices); TOTVS of Brazil (a commercial software company); and Delta of Taiwan (a diversified manufacturer of electronic systems and components). These three companies saw their share prices slump sharply in response to passable (but apparently disappointing) results. In all three cases, I believe the market’s response was grossly over-exaggerated.
    https://www.seafarerfunds.com/funds/ogi/portfolio-review#performance-review
  • M*: How Our T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolios Have Performed: Christine vs. Linkster
    Thanks again @davidmoran
    Re tutorial (noun) - Cambridge Dictionary
    1. a period of study with a tutor involving one student or a small group
    2. a period of study with a tutor and a small group of students
    3. IT a document or website on a computer that shows you how to use a product in a series of easy stages:
    Albeit, you used the adverb form of the word (which is rarely used). So to tie things together:
    tutorially: in the manner of a tutorial (Collins Dictionary)
    Here’s how M* describes Ms. Benz’s role and purpose: “Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz has developed a series of hypothetical portfolios for savers and retirees. These portfolios are offered as general examples for investors' reference. These portfolios are not personalized recommendations, nor are they investable products offered by Morningstar.”
    Hope I’m not nit-picking. Just trying to understand why I should be particularly interested in her advice over, say, someone like Ol’Skeet here who does a great job explaining his long standing bucket approach or the folks at T. Rowe Price who present models by example. (ie - I can take apart a given target date retirement fund designed by them and visualize how much they allocate to different funds or sectors.) I’m not saying Christine Benz’s is bad advice. Just asking why she deserves more credence than someone else who’s equally (possibly more) experienced?
    Nothing in Benz’s listed educational background (below) suggests any type of financial training or certification. All I see there is political science and East European history. Also, I’ve never thought of M* as an advisory firm. Always thought their forte was in statistical analysis of fund data. (But, I’ll admit to rarely looking at them.)
    Christine Benz’s Experience (Linkedin) https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-benz-b83b523/
    Director of Personal Finance
    Morningstar, Inc.
    2008 – Present (10 years)
    Director of Mutual Fund Analysis
    Morningstar, Inc.
    February 2006 – March 2008 (2 years 2 months)
    Education
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
    BA, Political Science, Russian and East European Studies
    Lyons Township High School
    From Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Christine-Benz/e/B002PICOLS
    “Christine (Benz) holds a bachelor's degree in political science and Russian/East European studies from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. She lives in the Chicago suburbs with her husband, Greg. She is an avid cook, a political junkie, and a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan.”
  • M*: How Our T. Rowe Price Retirement Saver Portfolios Have Performed: Christine vs. Linkster
    Thanks @davidmoran
    Who employs her? (some company or agency, wealthy individuals directly, financial planners)?
    40 years is a long time. If she’s wrong, you wouldn’t know for a long time. I suppose it doesn’t matter because there’s probably no legal accountability anyway.
    3 years (advertised by some here) doesn’t serm very meaningful to me. In a 40 year span (first investment to time of drawdown) a 3 year streak (positive or negative) would appear trivial.
  • Retirement Planning In High School? It’s Never Too Early, Experts Say
    FYI: It might seem odd to open a retirement account for a high school student.
    But teenagers can get a big head start on long-term savings, financial advisers say, by stashing some of their earnings in a Roth individual retirement account.
    Now is a good time to talk with teenagers about long-term savings using a Roth I.R.A. because they may have earned money from summer jobs, said Patricia A. Seaman, a spokeswoman for the National Endowment for Financial Education, a nonprofit organization that promotes financial literacy.
    Teenagers can benefit from tax-free growth of investments in a Roth account years before they have the opportunity to contribute to a workplace retirement plan, Ms. Seaman said. And five decades of growth allows plenty of time to ride out market swings.
    “The earlier you start,” Ms. Seaman said, “the more the time value of money works for you.”
    A Roth I.R.A. for someone under 18 must be opened and managed by an adult custodian, like a parent or grandparent. The teenager must have earned income, whether from a formal job or from gigs like babysitting and lawn mowing. Children can contribute their total annual earnings up to $5,500.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/your-money/roth-ira-retirement-teenagers.html
  • 7 bear market funds
    As to the "cash" as a place to run to in the event of an equity melt. Well, if one is able to pull the evacuate equity soon enough, and choose not to go to U.S. bonds or notes, our current default core cash at Fidelity yields, 1.6%.
    @Catch22,
    Love the wry humor here. Pulling the “evacuate (cord)” fast enough and running to cash would work - I suppose. However, should Mr. “Know All” post the evacuate alarm on this forum (as I believe he intends), than wouldn’t everyone who reads the financial internet be pulling their evacuate cords all at the same time? And if that happened, the result might well resemble a bunch of bumper-cars all colliding mid-air. I shudder to think how that might turn out.
    Also, some of us aging boomers suffer from arthritis and/or other incapacitations. The way my right shoulder feels some days, I fear I’d be among the last to yank that cord.
    :)
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Ted...obviously you didn't watch the video. All of these issues are discussed in detail. The main point is that a reverse mortgage is a financial tool that might help retirees avoid sequence of return risk. This strategy increases final Inheritance (total net worth). One would open the reverse mortgage at 62 (pay the set up fees), have a small principal balance (As little as $50) and let the line of credit grow. It is the line of credit (available in a reverse mortgage) that one would want to tap (and then later pay off the borrowed amount) if markets dropped for a period of time.
    Just one tool available to add buffer assets to your portfolio.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Bounce Back As Investors Shake Off Turkish Tantrum
    An explanation of how Turkey got over cooked:
    From Cullen Roche:
    ...here’s a totally inadequate summary of what’s happening:
    -Turkey wanted to spark growth and liberalized bank lending rules.
    -Banks and local businesses borrowed a lot of foreign denominated debt.
    -A boom ensued.
    -A bust is now ensuing.
    Here's the details:
    Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites: Some Rhymes with the Asian Crisis, but Not a Repeat
    https://cfr.org/blog/gone-fishing-0
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    Bit short on time. But would love for somebody to dissect this fund and explain in detail how this fund continues to chalk-up double digit (or near double-digit) returns given its positioning by Price as “... a conservative value approach” to equity investing. The fund currently holds 4% in Price’s institutional money market fund. It is huge at over 30 Bil AUM (Lipper). That’s double DODBX or OAKBX according to the Lipper numbers I consulted. A glance at the top 10 holdings displays nothing remarkable save for the 4% money market position. It’s got automotive, financial and (a bit surprising - Microsoft) within the top 10. Fees are typical of other TRP funds at about 0.7%.
    I’ve owned a small chunk of the fund for most of the 25 years I’ve been with Price. Have seen the fund go from a small opportunist (and nimble) mid-cap fund to a large hard to maneuver blue chip fund to whatever it’s morphed into today. Recent reading indicates they’ve been selling puts on equity funds. I’m not well versed on options, but gather that they limit both the potential upside and potential loss on a stock by doing this. The put-option also apparently generates additional income.
    I’d be interested in knowing whether investor flows into the fund continued after it closed its doors to new investors. That’s hard to know, since AUM would have increased by benefit of fund performance as well. But if money is continuing to flow in that would partially explain (not completely) the fund’s sizzling performance, since that new money might well be driving up the individual assets which the fund owns - and would be buying with the new money.
    Price has a great research and analytical team. I doubt there’s few better in the mutual fund universe. And, they do tilt their investment approach one way or the other depending on their very thorough macro economic readings. By now, the fund has become a bit of a flagship for the firm, so likely to receive their best money management people going forward. A loyal stable investor base goes a long way in aiding performance, as the need to sell holdings during market downturns is lessened.
    I also hold OAKBX- which I believe should be about equal in performance. However, it has done nowhere near as well for several years. But OAKBX did survive the last bear market (‘07-‘09) with significantly smaller losses. And, I believe it would likely sustain smaller losses in another major downturn.
  • Vanguard Brings Unrivaled Access To ETFs With Launch Of Industry’s Largest Commission-Free Platform
    I am told by my ML handholder that etn status is not the reason, but its use of derivatives. Or something like that.
    $7 is good; Fido is $5, if I am reading correctly; dunno why I balk, sez the guy who drives 3 miles to save $3 on scotch.
    That Elements link is the single funniest piece of financial writing I have read in very many months.
    But these are highly comical too, directly or indirectly.
    https://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23314-the-worst-etf-in-the-world.html
    https://www.elementsetn.com/ElementsETNUI/SPECTRUM-U.S.-ETN.aspx
    Up a dime today. $4M in assets, sez M*. Strategy almost CAPE-like, har.
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    I would add Commandment #11 -- Exercise.
    Perhaps that should be #1.
    (I'll grant that the focus of the article's "comfortable" retirement was financial issues. But not much else matters without good health.)
    David
    + 1 Too bad most don’t worry about their health until it is too late.
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    I would add Commandment #11 -- Exercise.
    Perhaps that should be #1.
    (I'll grant that the focus of the article's "comfortable" retirement was financial issues. But not much else matters without good health.)
    David
  • Trump Pushes To Study An End To Quarterly Earnings Reports
    @davidrmoran Fine for Singer, but it's this that I have a real problem with:
    Like many financiers who have achieved his level of success, Singer sees himself as more than a skillful player in the markets; he conducts himself like a public intellectual whose ideas on policy—on everything from taxation to regulation, education, and foreign affairs—should be heeded by politicians and other decision-makers on both a national and a local level.
    That makes about as much sense as asking a pediatrician how to fix your plumbing, yet I see it again and again in the financial sphere--because people are good at making money by any means necessary they assume they should be running the country. Their me-first Ayn Randian inspired philosophy is exactly the opposite of what you need in the public-servant sphere. The other thing I've discovered through long experience is that many of these superb investors aren't exceptionally bright in general, just good at the one thing--making money--and crass ignoramouses otherwise. I won't name names, but you've named a couple yourself in the past.
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    Over the past couple of decades, there have been a few $0 TF services. Not surprisingly virtually all have fallen by the wayside. Mutual funds are generally not sold short, so there's no money to be made in lending the shares. Unlike Fidelity offering up a couple of loss leaders (losing but a few basis points) to draw profitable business traffic, providing a full menu of competing products below cost won't drive customers to proprietary products and services.
    A good reference for 2001 brokerages and rates (I take 0 TF funds offered to mean all are NTF):
    https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/discount-broker-shopping-guide-mutual-fund-supermarkets
    At the time, Baker & Co, NetVest, Scottrade, and York Securities sold all the funds they offered without a transaction fee. I've never heard of the first two. Scottrade offered all funds NTF from roughly 2001 (based on skimming Wayback Machine pages) to the end of 2004.
    I do recognize the name York Securities, but never tracked it. It's still around, though no longer selling all its fund offerings without commissions.
    FWIW, here's Baker & Co's site (I think). Finding NetVest is trickier. The website listed with NetVest in 2001 takes you to an investing app startup. Possibly NetVest became NetVest Financial. In any case, Baker and NetVest Financial are now focused on financial services, not low cost brokerage services.
    Apparently, Firstrade also offered all the funds it sold without commissions in the early 2000's (though not in 2001). That rings a faint bell with me.
    Other financial institutions have tried to offer all funds without transaction but only to investors keeping significant assets with them:
    WellsTrade required you to keep a PMA account ($25K+) with Wells Fargo to get 100 trades/year. Grandfathered accounts, no new ones for the past several years.
    Scudder Preferred Investment Plus ($100K+ in assets) - 1998-1999 unlimited trades
    Vanguard: 25 free trades/year for Flagship customers ($1M+ in Vanguard funds), 100 trades/year for Flagship Select customers ($5M+ in Vanguard funds).
    Vanguard looks to be in it for the long term, but think about how they're doing it. You must funnel seven figures to their money managers, not just into their brokerage account. Fidelity may offer some good funds, but I don't see their customers having the same loyalty to their proprietary funds. Their customers are not likely to commit $1M to Fidelity funds just to be able to trade non-Fidelity funds without a fee.
    Who else could make a go of this business model? T. Rowe Price? It recently upped its min in proprietary funds from $100K to $250 for a free M* membership. Would its customers spring for $1M to invest in outside funds w/o a fee? Or could they make a go of it with a min below $1M?
  • Q&A With Jeffrey Saut, CIO, Raymond James: Market Sweet Spots: Small & Midcaps
    FYI: Jeffrey Saut is chief investment strategist for Raymond James & Associates, which has more than $750 billion in assets under management. He is well-known for his insightful commentary regarding the stock market, and makes regular appearances on major financial news networks. ETF.com recently spoke with Saut to discuss his outlook for the U.S. economy and stocks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/market-sweet-spots-small-midcaps
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    @MikeW
    Our house has been with Fidelity for 40 years and we're "self-educated" regarding investing. Our family backgrounds provided for learning and experiences from our parents which allowed both of us to be prudent in the area of personal finance and investing. No financial planners or advisors.
    Thank you for being gracious enough to share your particular investment needs.
    Not knowing your background or comfort level with investing; I tend to agree with @slick
    that: "I think you are on the right track of finding a fee only planner but managing the assets yourself with occasional meetings to make sure you stay on track."
    You noted, Schwab. I'm aware of the roboadviser, but not familiar with its functions as used by Schwab for guidance for an individual investor.
    You also mentioned changing investments. Do you feel your current portfolio mix is not suitable?
    Making a decision to use an investment advisor , would be a tough chew for me today (not to be confused with other estate planning functions). He/she would soon become tired of my questions.
    Got to get pillow time. Perhaps other tomorrow.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    @Mikew, I hired an advisor who was a certified financial planner ar ML whom I knew for a few years with my work for a nonprofit after I inherited money from my spouse. It was more than I had managed previously so I thought it wise. She created a plan for me and transferred my assets from Fido. There were some funds that would not transfer so substituted a few, which were perfectly good funds. We did buy stocks, but she was not a fan of etfs as I was. There were some funds I wanted that I could not buy because they were not compensated, and frankly I found I was better at fund picking than she was. I ended up transferring back to Fido after 3 years, and manage my own assets, but do have use of an advisor with whom I meet with quarterly, no charge. I had more of an issue with ML than my advisor there, and we are still friends. I think you are on the right track of finding a fee only planner but managing the assets yourself with occasional meetings to make sure you stay on track. Fido also has advisors for half the cost of ML if you choose that route.
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    Edelman does this kind of thing all the time and I have heard various of their CFPs talk (they have a good weekly radio show) about just this subject. However, they are a bit more than 1%, I think. Like any good CFP outfit they are plugged into local trust and estate and special situations attorneys. I am not saying they are better than what you can find elsewhere, but they are honest and low-key from all repute and their radio show is good.
    https://www.edelmanfinancial.com/financial-planner-offices/washington-dc/north-bethesda
    https://www.edelmanfinancial.com/financial-planner-offices/washington-dc/
  • Identifying a good financial planner
    @catch22,
    Great to connect with you again Catch. So I was referred to ML and specifically to an advisor that specializes in working with families with special needs kids -- my situation. I haven't decided to go with this person at ML which is why I was asking the question about identifying other advisors. But that's a great suggestion to ask for people's experiences with ML. I'm curious -- as I recall you work with T Rowe Price. Did you work with a financial planner there and if so what were your experiences? thanks.