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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Pimco Has A Manager Who Tops Dan Ivascyn. His Name? Dan Ivascyn
    IMHO and those of others 42.5% leverage is highly leveraged. Maximum allowed is 50% as per the Investment Company Regulation act of 1940 and the median amount of leverage for cef's is about 33%. My post was to highlight the fact that in a financial downturn this leverage will still require payment on the debt ,which will cause increased shareholder loss. In addition ,losses will be magnified by the leverage with interest rate declines, especially in the longer maturity securities. The 26% of fund holdings in MBS in PDI is of the non agency variety ie subprime with higher yields. In a downturn when folks are running to the exits this fund will likely have liquidity issues/problems. I do own CEF's and know about the potential downsides. Sugarcoating PDI does not do it justice. PONDXPIMIX is a buy and hold fund and PDI is not, IMHO. I own PIMIX as a satellite fund in my portfolio and sleep well with it there
  • What Will You do When the Bear Arrives?
    Hi @Old_Skeet
    You noted: "but, let me ask a question. How much of the reflected outsized performance for the securities shown in the chart was the result of the FOMC's bond buying program? Generally, back then most bond yields fell as bond valutations increased. I'm thinking this performance would be hard to repeat again in the nearterm to midterm based upon current low bond yields."
    >>>From the market melt in 2007/2008 through today; global central bank policies have indeed "perverted" returns in both equity and bond sectors. This perversion remains today. I have noted before (2009 FundAlarm) and still maintain that "this time is different". Consumer side economic damage took place during the market melt and many folks, IMO; have not fully recovered. For a very short list, the continued low interest rate policies from central banks and technology advances will maintain pressures going forward to determine the winners and losers in the equity and bond arenas.
    While interest rates are indeed low and the potential for out sized returns likely no longer exists as related to the market melt returns; financial or political events would likely push up prices on investment grade bonds, being corporate and more so U.S. government issues.
    While the current view of policies and politics, as viewed from outside the U.S., is likely not as favorable as with past administrations; future turmoil globally, be it economic or military will still find the large money buying the safety of U.S. treasury bond issues.
    World Largest Economies, 2017
    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/
    Yes, we live during interesting times, eh?
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Please reschedule Webinars for working stiffs
    I am posting to see if there is enough interest in asking for a delayed broadcast of the Webinars or another time (not during working hours) for those of us who have 9 to 5 jobs and whose bosses look disparagingly at using work internet for personal financial work
    David please reschedule for working stiffs!
  • What Will You do When the Bear Arrives?
    Well ... If everyone buys, than the market won't go down. Will it?
    ---
    Edit: The above was a quick shoot from the hip reaction to the thread. No intent to disparage anyone.
    Truth is, you really don't know what you'll do until it happens. In '08 the picture was bleak. Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary, was on TV trying to reassure a panicked public. Lehman Brothers - a giant financial institution - had crumpled in days. Money market funds, previously considered safe, were on the ropes and might well have collapsed without emergency government backing. As bad as it was here, international markets plummeted even more. I saw people who were retired and thought they were smart investors literally in tears after watching their retirement nest egg disintegrate 50% in a year's time.
    There are options other than simple buy or sell. If you think the sell-off is overdone consider rotating out of conservative funds and into more aggressive ones at a slow and steady pace. Also, if your money is in Traditional IRAs, consider converting to a Roth while markets are depressed. Personally, I'm mostly buy and hold, but do adjust cash position upward or downward a bit as markets evolve (risk on/risk off). Generally, cash stays between 10% and 25% - so there's not a lot of leeway there to buy equities.
    Just some rambling thoughts.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Rating The Robo-Advisors
    Apparently Barron's (the source of the scorecard table) is offering its article free, via google:
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Barrons+rating+robo+advisors&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
    The article with the table is "Rating the Robo Advisors" (first non-ad link in search).
    There's a companion piece as well: Which Robo is Best for Your Portfolio?
    Unfortunately the table (with only 1 year and YTD data) is undated, so we don't know what timeframes the data represent. The Barron's article does cite the ultimate source of the data - Backend Benchmarking. You can get the full report there for free, but you have to register (I haven't done this, at least yet):
    https://theroboreport.com/
    There's an informative graphic in the Barron's article that shows the asset allocations of three of the test portfolios (Vanguard, Betterment, and Schwab). That image seems not to be firewalled:
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-CF390_Cov3Po_16U_20170728221049.jpg
    The companion piece points out that there's more to deciding among systems than raw performance. It notes, for example, that Schwab is achieving its performance by relying on EM bonds ("not exactly a risk-free strategy"). More generally, it observes a "general bias toward value investing and a significant exposure to international markets."
    Finally, from the table I see that TradeKing was acquired by Ally. I missed that completely when it happened last year:
    https://media.ally.com/2016-04-05-Ally-Financial-Announces-Acquisition-of-TradeKing-Group
  • T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund to close to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1116626/000111662617000007/gtfstatsticker8117-may2.htm
    497 1 gtfstatsticker8117-may2.htm
    T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated May 1, 2017
    In section 1, the information under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, September 29, 2017, the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund will be closed to new investors and new accounts, subject to certain exceptions. Investors who already hold shares of the fund at the close of business on Friday, September 29, 2017, will be permitted to continue to purchase additional shares.
    In section 3, the information under “More Information About the Fund and Its Investment Risks” is supplemented as follows:
    Subject to certain exceptions, the fund will be closed to new investors and will no longer accept new accounts, effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange (normally 4 p.m. ET) on Friday, September 29, 2017.
    After September 29, 2017, purchases will be permitted for participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund already serves as an investment option. Additional purchases will also be permitted for an investor who already holds fund shares in an account directly with T. Rowe Price; however, purchases will be limited to that account and the investor may not open another account in the fund. Additional purchases will generally be permitted if you already hold the fund through a financial intermediary; however, you should check with the financial intermediary to confirm your eligibility to continue purchasing shares of the fund.
    After September 29, 2017, new T. Rowe Price IRAs in the fund may be opened only through a direct rollover from an employer-sponsored retirement plan. If permitted by T. Rowe Price, the fund may also be purchased by new investors in intermediary wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs when the fund is an existing investment in the intermediary’s program. Investors may convert from one share class of the fund to a different share class of the fund, provided the investor meets the eligibility criteria for the new share class.
    The fund’s closure to new investor accounts will not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account after September 29, 2017, will not be permitted to reestablish the account and purchase shares until the fund is reopened to new investors. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may restrict the ability to purchase additional shares.
    The fund reserves the right, when in the judgment of T. Rowe Price it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain types of investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
    The date of this supplement is August 1, 2017.
    F132-041 8/1/17
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    Not so fast. Gundlach's pretty bright and probably bought the wine as an investment.
    http://www.wineinvestment.com/wine-investment/alternative-investments/
    "The term ‘alternative investments’ is relatively loose, and includes tangible assets such as precious metals, art, wine, antiques, coins and stamps, plus some financial assets such as property, venture capital, funds and trusts.
    "Investing in wine, whether that be a rare bottle, a case of highly-regarded First Growths or an entire cellar, has consistently yielded decent low-risk returns. In fact, for the last 50 years the fine wine market has remained stable, despite the world’s economic crises ..."

    Agree with @Mark. Wine around here's often on sale at 20-30% below list. Some stores offer an additional 10% off if you buy 4. You can almost always find decent tasting Californias for around $10.
  • Dreyfus Strategic Beta Global Equity Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111178/000111117817000041/sticker6336.htm
    497 1 sticker6336.htm SUPPLEMENT TO PROSPECTUS
    July 26, 2017
    DREYFUS OPPORTUNITY FUNDS
    - DREYFUS STRATEGIC BETA GLOBAL EQUITY FUND
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus
    The Board of Trustees of Dreyfus Opportunity Funds (the “Trust”) has approved the liquidation of Dreyfus Strategic Beta Global Equity Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, effective on or about September 8, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”). Before the Liquidation Date, and at the discretion of Fund management, the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the Fund will cease to pursue its investment objective and policies. The liquidation of the Fund may result in one or more taxable events for shareholders subject to federal income tax.
    Accordingly, effective on or about August 31, 2017 (the “Closing Date”), the Fund will be closed to any investments for new accounts, except that new accounts may be established by participants in group retirement plans (and their successor plans) if the Fund is established as an investment option under the plans before the Closing Date. The Fund will continue to accept subsequent investments until the Liquidation Date, except that subsequent investments made by check or pursuant to Dreyfus TeleTransfer or Dreyfus Automatic Asset Builder® no longer will be accepted as of August 24, 2017. However, subsequent investments by Dreyfus-sponsored Individual Retirement Accounts and Dreyfus-sponsored retirement plans (collectively, “Dreyfus Retirement Plans”) pursuant to Dreyfus TeleTransfer and Dreyfus Automatic Asset Builder® will be accepted on or after August 24, 2017.
    Effective on the Closing Date, the front-end sales load applicable to purchases of the Fund’s Class A shares will be waived on investments made in the Fund’s Class A shares. In addition, as of that date, the contingent deferred sales charge (“CDSC”) applicable to redemptions of Class C shares and certain Class A shares of the Fund will be waived on any redemption of such Fund shares.
    To the extent subsequent investments are made in the Fund on or after the Closing Date, the Fund’s distributor will not compensate financial institutions (which may include banks, securities dealers and other industry professionals) for selling Class C shares or Class A shares subject to a CDSC at the time of purchase.
    Fund shares held on the Liquidation Date in Dreyfus Retirement Plans will be exchanged for Dreyfus Class shares of General Government Securities Money Market Fund (“GGSMMF”) to avoid penalties that may be imposed on holders of Dreyfus Retirement Plans under the Internal Revenue Code if their Fund shares were redeemed in cash. Investors may obtain a copy of the Prospectus of GGSMMF by calling 1-800-DREYFUS.
    6336STK0717
  • Investing According To Your Values Can Also Make You Money
    @Jojo26
    The RBC study you referenced looks at the KLD 400 Index. According to MSCI, the index's owner: "The MSCI KLD 400 Social Index is maintained in two stages. First, securities of companies involved in Nuclear Power, Tobacco, Alcohol, Gambling, Military Weapons, Civilian Firearms, GMOs and Adult Entertainment are excluded." https://msci.com/documents/10199/904492e6-527e-4d64-9904-c710bf1533c6
    It is precisely such exclusionary screens for SRI funds I stated the research was neutral about, revealing that such exclusionary indexes/funds either match the market or lag it slightly. It is ESG rankings in which every sector is included but the worst ranked ESG companies are minimized or eliminated that there is strong corroborative evidence for. Since you didn't read the links I provided to the DB report, here is an important excerpt:
    The evidence is compelling: Sustainable Investing can be a clear win for investors and for companies. However, many SRI fund managers, who have tended to use exclusionary screens, have historically struggled to capture this. We believe that ESG analysis should be built into the investment processes of every serious investor, and into the corporate strategy of every company that cares about shareholder value. ESG best-in-class focused funds should be able to capture superior risk-adjusted returns if well executed.
    This is the key finding of our report in which we looked at more than 100 academic studies of sustainable investing around the world, and then closely examined and categorized 56 research papers, as well as 2 literature reviews and 4 meta studies – we believe this is one of the most comprehensive reviews of the literature ever undertaken.
    Frequently, Sustainable Investing is stated to yield ‘mixed results”. However, by breaking down our analysis into different categories (SRI, CSR, and ESG) we have identified exactly where in the sprawling, diverse universe of so-called Sustainable Investment, value has been found.
    By applying what we believe to be a unique methodology, we show that “Corporate Social Responsibility” (CSR) and most importantly, “Environmental, Social and Governance” (ESG) factors are correlated with superior risk-adjusted returns at a securities level. In conducting this analysis, it became evident that CSR has essentially evolved into ESG. At the same time, we are able to show that studies of fund performance – which have been classified “Socially Responsible Investing” (SRI) in the academic literature and have tended to rely on exclusionary screens – show SRI adds little upside, although it does not underperform either. Exclusion, in many senses, is essentially a values-based or ethical consideration for investors.
    We were surprised by the clarity of the results we uncovered:
    100% of the academic studies agree that companies with high ratings for CSR and ESG factors have a lower cost of capital in terms of debt (loans and bonds) and equity. In effect, the market recognizes that these companies are lower risk than other companies and rewards them accordingly. This finding alone should put the issue of Sustainability squarely into the office of the Chief Financial Officer, if not the board, of every company.
    89% of the studies we examined show that companies with high ratings for ESG factors exhibit market-based outperformance, while 85% of the studies show these types of company’s exhibit accounting-based outperformance. Here a gain, the market is showing correlation between financial performance of companies and what it perceives as advantageous ESG strategies, at least over the medium (3-5 years) to long term (5-10 years).
    The single most important of these factors, and the most looked at by academics to date, is Governance (G), with 20 studies focusing in on this component of ESG (relative to 10 studies focusing on E and 8 studies on S). In other words, any company that thinks it does not need to bother with improving its systems of corporate governance is, in effect, thumbing its nose at the market and hurting its own performance all at the same time. In the hierarchy of factors that count with investors and the markets in general, Environment is the next most important, followed closely by Social factors.
    Most importantly, when we turn to fund returns, it is notable that these are all clustered into the SRI category. Here, 88% of studies of actual SRI fund returns show neutral or mixed results. Looking at the compositions of the fund universes included in the academic studies we see a lot of exclusionary screens being used. However, that is not to say that SRI funds have generally underperformed. In other words, we have found that SRI fund managers have struggled to capture outperformance in the broad SRI category but they have, at least, not lost money in the attempt.
    These conclusions go a long way towards explaining why the concept of sustainable investing has taken so long to gain acceptance and even now inspires indifference and even cynicism among many investors. It has been too closely associated for too long with the SRI fund manager results which are not only an extremely broad category (i.e. in terms of investment mandate), but historically were based more on exclusionary – as opposed to positive or best-in-class – screening. ESG investing, by contrast, takes the best-in-class approach. By analyzing the various categories within the universe of sustainable investing, we can now say confidently that the ESG approach, at an analytical level, works for investors and for companies both in terms of cost of capital and corporate financial performance (on a market and accounting basis). It is now a question of ESG best-in-class funds capturing the available returns.
  • Investing Lessons From Edward Thorp, Quant Pioneer And Card Counter
    FYI: Edward O. Thorp pioneered the use of quantitative investment techniques in the financial markets. He is the author of “Beat the Dealer,” which was the first book to prove mathematically that blackjack could be beaten by card counting, and “Beat the Market,” which showed how warrant option markets could be priced and beaten.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-lessons-from-edward-thorp-quant-pioneer-and-card-counter-2017-07-25/print
  • Investing According To Your Values Can Also Make You Money
    @Maurice Yes, except reductive binary arguments--sustainable/unsustainable--are false childish ones. We live in a world of scales and spectrum and there are many shades of grey between sustainable and unsustainable. Last I heard muni bonds weren't used to support wars and revolutions. But by saying everything's unsustainable it rationalizes investing in everything (or nothing if you're on the other side of this childish argument) when some companies and governments are much worse or better than others.
    Here's how the federal government spent the 2016 Federal Budget according to Investopedia:
    investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/
    What Goes into the Current National Debt?
    As indicated above, debt is the net accumulation of budget deficits. It is important to look at the top expenses, as they constitute the major factors of national debt. The top expenses in the U.S. are identified as follows (based on the Federal Budget 2016 Total Outlay Figures):
    Healthcare Programs (includes Medicare & Medicaid): A total of $1.1 trillion (USD) is allocated to healthcare benefit programs, which includes Medicare and Medicaid.
    Social Security Program/Pensions: Aimed at providing financial security to the retired, the total Social Security and other expenditures are $1 trillion.
    Defense Budget Expenses: The portion of national budget which is allocated for military related expenditures. Currently, $1.1 trillion is earmarked for the U.S. Defense Budget.
    Others: Transportation, veteran benefits, international affairs, education and training, etc. are also expenses the government has to take care of. Interestingly, the common public belief is that spending on international affairs consumes a lot of resources and expenses, but in truth, such expenditures lie within the lower rung in the list.
    So even on the federal level it's not just wars. But you already knew that.
  • Jonathan Clements: Looking Bad
    Not to knock Clements. I'm sure he writes from the heart. His 3 indictments of market watching:
    Promotes hasty decision making and excessive trading.
    It shouldn't if you have a long range clearly defined plan (as one of the comments in the link points out). Heck, this argument that viewing something causes irrational behavior is often used to indict (and try to censor) films, video games, a lot of TV drama and the shopping networks. Point is that impulsive people act impulsively.
    It's mindless entertainment
    Has anyone watched CNN lately? And couldn't you say the same re sports viewing, films, gaming, etc?
    Creates the illusion of control over the markets
    These people got a real problem! Get burned in the markets a few times and you quickly learn you have no control over them. I can't imagine watching Bloomberg or reading the WSJ would promote this illusion of control.
    Fact is that knowledge = power. I've never felt that any learning was useless. But if folks would prefer to turn off the electronic medium and shun financial publications, that's their right I suppose. If market watching is keeping you from engaging in other activities, that's a different issue. But Clements doesn't appear to lament that he wasn't doing other, presumably more worthwhile, things during the time he watched markets.
  • Fund Manager #@$%*! Fired as Trump's Communications Director
    It is the way of his tweeted support and his snark, his wording (brief) and what it seems to convey and what is behind it, that seems something other than and beyond expedience. That's all.
    Clintons' policy history even in its variety and evolutions over the decades doesn't seem notably at odds with their core values wrt the social issues I listed. Maybe I'm naive, and for sure am ignorant compared w your recitation.
    I have often wondered about the greed policy monolithicity, or variety of thought, among plutocrats. Of the half-dozen financial moguls I know pretty well, meaning play weekly geezerball with for decades, none of them opposes or has opposed higher taxes and past recent regs on their amassing. Of course Singers and Mercers tend not to live in Boston suburbs, so surely my sample is skewed.
  • Fund Manager #@$%*! Fired as Trump's Communications Director
    @Davidrmoran There are obvious differences between these politicians. What I am saying is Mooch's once supporting Dems doesn't strike me as a sign of moderation but more so a hedge fund manager's expedience. (Or does expedience count as moderation these days? I'm not asking that facetiously.) A number of hedge fund managers supported Clinton and Obama in 2008 and then when Dodd Frank and the Consumer Protection Act came out switched teams, resenting any form of regulation.
    There was a track record for them to believe especially in Clinton's case that she would be a friend to the Street. Both parties have been. While Republicans designed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act or the Financial Services Modernization Act which deregulated Wall Street in 1999, Bill Clinton eagerly signed it into law. He was also a supporter of much of the deregulation that occurred in the 1990s--deregulation that allowed many financial service firms to make a mint off M& A activity.
    There is no moral equivalency I am claiming though between these three, merely stating that Wall Street never saw any of them until recently as enemies.
  • Fund Manager #@$%*! Fired as Trump's Communications Director
    @davidrmoran There are two things going on--one is the pursuit of raw power regardless of which party. Trump himself was once a Clinton donor until it no longer suited his ends. The other is an undying love for all things Wall Street. Both Trump and Hillary are friends of Wall Street no matter what either of them says otherwise. As was Obama, contrary to popular belief:
    https://opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?cid=n00009638
    While such a pro-Street ideology might be suitable for the head of an exchange or investment bank, it is not necessarily ideal for the communications director to the most powerful public servant in the world. I wonder if this will affect the fiduciary rule in some way.
    Here's an interesting take on the appointment from one financial adviser who supports the fiduciary rule:
    https://riabiz.com/a/2017/7/22/in-letter-to-riabiz-ron-rhoades-reacts-to-the-ardent-of-dol-rule-detractor-commandeering-the-white-house-microphone
    Obviously hedge funds charging 2% of assets and 20% of profits might not fair so well in a world where advisers must always put their clients interests first.
  • Q&A With Dennis Gartman, Editor, The Gartman Letter
    FYI: Dennis Gartman is the man behind The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter discussing global capital markets. For almost 30 years, The Gartman Letter has tackled the political, economic and social trends shaping the world's markets. ETF.com recently caught up with Gartman to discuss the latest developments in the financial markets.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/gartmans-favorite-trades-right-now?nopaging=1
  • M*: An Outstanding Large-Cap Fund For Patient Investors: (DODGX)
    failed? 'elevated downside capture' etc.
    \\\ have come with elevated volatility and downside capture levels. This was evident during the financial crisis of 2007-09, and the fund also lagged in a volatile 2011. But the fund has bounced back: During the trailing five-year period ended June 2017, the fund’s 16.4% annualized gain outpaced the Russell 1000 Value’s 13.9% gain as well as 99% of its large-value peers.
  • No Mercy / No Malice: Every Seven Years
    FYI: Jamie Dimon’s (CEO of JPM) definition of a financial crisis is “something that happens every five to seven years.” It’s been eight since the last recession. As you get old enough to observe cycles, as actual cycles, you begin to recognize the economic time you’re in is a point on a curved line and, sooner than you think, the direction of the line will change. Better or worse.
    An asset bubble is a wave of optimism that lifts prices beyond levels warranted by fundamentals, ending in a crash. I promised myself that I’d be smarter the next time. “Next” meaning on the cusp of a pop or recession. So, how do you ID when we’ve entered the danger zone, and should you adjust your behavior / actions?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.l2inc.com/daily-insights/no-mercy-no-malice/every-seven-years
  • LPL Prepares Mutual Fund Platform To Comply With DOL Rule
    FYI: As the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule takes effect, the nation’s largest independent broker-dealer will roll out a new mutual fund platform intended to remove conflicts of interest in advisor compensation.
    Charlotte-based LPL Financial has announced that beginning in 2018 it will offer a “mutual fund only” (MFO) platform with standardized commissions.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/lpl-reveals--mutual-fund-only--platform-to-standardize-commssions-33689.html?print
  • Which Mutual Fund? Retirement Income Distribution comparison (VWINX, USBLX, JGRBX, PRPFX)
    It looks like they all did only that some did it better than the others. The only trouble I have is the usual and customary past performance is ..... blah-blah.
    Yeah - Me too. If humans lived to be 300 and spent 100 years in retirement these kinds of simulations would be a lot easier. Market cycles are more predictable over 100 years.
    Just for fun, from January, 1992:
    Dow - around 3000.
    NASDAQ - around 600
    10-year Treasury - around 7%
    Gold - around $350
    Never considered PRPFX an income fund. Not sure why it was included. If anything, it's a "wild card" - liable to do almost anything over 25 years - with the potential to hold up better during periods of unusual financial stress due to investments in precious metals (25%) and Swiss Francs (10%).
    Personally, I don't think in these terms (generating income in retirement). Probably because my overall positioning is quite conservative, having a lot of hybrid products, I pull distributions "off the top" without the concern about market fluctuations many voice. (That's not to say I don't include income generating investments for diversification within the whole mix.) Guess my approach is quite unorthodox - based on board discussions.
    @Mark - I hope @ Old_Joe gives us the color of those things he never thinks about. :)