Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • John Waggoner: Take 5: Oakmark's Bill Nygren Sees Value In Bank Stocks
    :) Might be more value to come from some financial sector holdings.....
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    Totally agree with fundalarm. A fund to invest in is the least of her concerns when there is so much other financial responsibility to contend with. Good advice fundalarm.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    i think she needs a financial advisor - just picking funds is not enough. someone needs to look at the entire picture. now that she is a sole provider for the tho teenagers, does she have enough life insurance?...she needs to put 2 kids through college while saving for her own retirement. does she have a 529 for each daugther?...
    investments are but one part of the family financial planning. she needs clarity on the whole picture.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    Tough call without knowing the person's risk tolerance, financial goals, and sources of funds. Since she has account with Vanguard, it would be equally as wise to talk with Vanguard advisors, even without using their advisor services.
  • Regression to the Mean will Happen
    Hi Guys,
    I wish you all a happy and safe Independence Day. I will definitely overeat.
    On recent posts some considerable concern has been expressed over the current length of several zero returns delivered by indices like the S&P 500. I don’t share that concern.
    It is not a rare happening. In a very rough measure, it occurs something like one-third of the time based on long term market history. Not to worry because a regression-to-the-mean is always operative. The data support this observation. Here is a Link to a recent article by excellent financial writer Morgan Housel that reviews that data:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/30/when-stocks-give-you-nothing.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
    Housel subtitled his piece: “the long wait”. That’s appropriate. Patience can be severely tested. The quandary for investors is that nobody can forecast how long that wait is and when it will end. But be confident that it will end. Figure 2 in the Housel article illustrates the potential length of that long wait from historical data.
    Nobody likes running in-place, but a regression-to-the-mean will eventually kick-in. Unfortunately, not any expert can predict when that will happen in a reliable, reproducible manner. That’s the nature of the equity marketplace. But as the zero return environment lengthens, the odds of a recovery to the historical average annual returns increases.
    I completely agree with Housel’s observations that patience and a cash reserve are mandatory requisites for successful investing. Incrementally increasing your equity positions during this difficult period will surely not maximize your total end wealth since only precisely picking the market bottoms can do that. But that’s an impossible goal; it can not be done.
    In that sense, investors should be satisficers and not maximizers. There just are too many fund choices and too much uncertainty to ever fully realize maximizer perfection. Any attempt to do so will ultimately end in unhappiness at our failures to accomplish that lofty target. Instead, being satisfied with near Index returns is easily accomplished with little effort and even little time commitment. I practice that discipline.
    The percentage of professional money managers who successfully maximize returns, using an Index as a measure of their success, is grimly low. The evidence is in their dismal performance records.
    Please enjoy the fireworks and the feasting.
    Best Regards.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    I agree with @Ted as to the funds he mentioned and KISS. I will add VWENX which is available to Vanguard account holders. This fund is active managed varying from 50-70% in equity. The long term return performance is excellent, with this fund having an expense ratio of .18%. Not knowing the tax status of current or these new monies, one may also consider a Vanguard muni bond fund for some of the monies, if investment taxation could be a problem. Also, if applicable; maximizing a Roth IRA contribution with some of the monies. The above is offered with the presumption that these monies are directed properly towards any and all other financial needs first, as deemed appropriate.
  • Laura Geritz (Wasatch) is out
    I invested in WAFMX because I wanted exposure to frontier markets and because I saw promise in its consumer-heavy weighting. There are not a lot of options for frontier markets funds in general, and I believe all the others are more focused on financial stocks. So that would make WAFMX still the best choice given what's available.
  • Calamos Discovery Growth Fund and Calamos Mid Cap Growth Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000119312516640530/d221359d497.htm
    497 1 d221359d497.htm 497
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-19228 and 811-05443
    CALAMOS® INVESTMENT TRUST
    Supplement dated July 1, 2016 to the CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS Summary Prospectuses for Class A, B and C and Class I and R of Calamos Mid Cap Growth Fund both dated February 29, 2016, the Summary Prospectuses for Class A and C and Class I and R of Calamos Discovery Growth Fund, both dated February 29, 2016, Prospectuses for Class A, B and C and Class I and R, both dated February 29, 2016, as supplemented on March 14, 2016 and on June 10, 2016, and the Statement of Additional Information dated February 29, 2016, as supplemented on March 14, 2016 and on June 10, 2016.
    The Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statements of Additional Information for the Calamos Investment Trust (the “Trust”) are hereby supplemented. The following information supersedes any information to the contrary regarding the Calamos Discovery Growth Fund and Calamos Mid Cap Growth Fund (each a “Fund” and, collectively, the “Funds”) each a series of the Trust, contained in the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statements of Additional Information:
    The Funds will be liquidated on or about October 6, 2016 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    Effective August 1, 2016, the Funds will stop accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders,
    except that defined contribution retirement plans that hold Fund shares as of July 1, 2016 may continue to purchase Fund shares through September 29, 2016 and existing shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gains distributions received from the Funds through September 29, 2016. The Funds reserve the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to a Fund’s liquidation. After the close of business on the Liquidation Date, the Funds will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    Each Fund intends to declare and pay any dividends required to distribute its investment company taxable income, net capital gains, and net tax-exempt income accrued in the Fund’s taxable year ending at to the Liquidation Date or any in any prior taxable year in which the Fund is eligible to declare and pay a dividend. These dividends will be taxable to shareholders who do not hold their shares in a tax-advantaged account such as an IRA or 401(k). You should check with your investment professional and tax professional regarding the potential impact of the Funds’ liquidation to your individual financial plan and tax situation.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of a Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth under the section “How can I sell (redeem) shares?” in the Prospectus, as supplemented. Shareholders may also exchange their shares, subject to the restrictions on exchanges as described under the section “How can I sell (redeem) shares? — By exchange” in the Prospectus, as supplemented. Any such redemption or exchange of a Fund’s shares for shares of another fund will generally be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes. Shareholders who hold their shares in a Fund through a financial intermediary should contact their financial representative to discuss their options with respect to the liquidation and the distribution of such shareholders’ redemption proceeds.
    Subsequent to the liquidation of the Funds, all references to the Funds in each Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information are hereby removed.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference
    MFSPT3 07/16
  • Brexit: What, Me Worry?
    If an investor utilizes an empirically derived, systematically based, risk managed process with a diversification over varied asset classes, then long term results and investment decisions are less affected by geopolitical events and emotionally driven financial news.
    I keep thinking of the Japanese.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}
    And the S&P with its double tops
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^GSPC;range=my
    Eventually, 'this time is different' happens.
    I don't think the Brexit will do it. I think will be acknowledging deflationary pressures will be the cause. We are not there yet. And it is a difficult idea for the news media to see and understand.
  • Brexit: What, Me Worry?
    Only a handful of geopolitical events have led to / accompanied major market corrections. One factor that has repeated over time has been the slowing of market activity / dry up of liquidity, the increase in market volatility because of exogenous events during the summer / fall months, and favorability of earnings reports, pick up of volume/liquidity and institutional allocations into equities in the fall / winter / spring months. If an investor utilizes an empirically derived, systematically based, risk managed process with a diversification over varied asset classes, then long term results and investment decisions are less affected by geopolitical events and emotionally driven financial news.
    For example, investing in a blend of small cap value and emerging small cap from Nov 1 to Apr 30 and then switching to utilities sector or cash equivalents ( depending on "high risk" signaling instruction from risk profile variable * ) from May 1 to Oct 31 of each year, forward 5 year total returns periods after 10 major geopolitical events over the last 60 years have produced: > 100% in 7 periods and 50% - 100% in 2 periods with no losing periods.
    A higher confidence of an investment process' returns involves a review of 5 year total returns after market peaks and then subsequent market corrections of > 5%.
    Since 1954, forward 5 year total returns periods for the small cap value / emerging small / utilities / cash process after the "peaks" have produced > 100% in 11 of 24 occurrences, between 50% and 100% in 8 out of 24, with no losing periods with median 5 year return = 87% vs. 43% for S&P500 buy & hold. Median 5 year return periods outside of correction occurrences = 114%.
    In summary, market corrections and geopolitical events are temporary. An investor who has utilized a robust tactical investment process combined with superior asset class selection, and has been disciplined and patient for at least 5 years has been well rewarded.
    * quantitative price based variable # 2 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1u5PjMjpeLICy8fa-34c89oHqV6bghPTipGO_0IY3VRc/edit?usp=sharing
  • Brexit: What, Me Worry?
    “Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t”. The data show that market forecasters are well practiced at that art.
    Love it.
    Thank you MJG.
    I fear Brexit is another example of "scorched-earth" politics, but one that actually succeeded. Hard to believe that such an important national decision could be decided with just a simple majority, instead of say two-thirds.
    (Another example of such politics is the refusal to vote on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland.)
    Financial sectors hammered Friday, since so-called passporting rules, which I believe allow banks based in London to operate seamlessly in other European countries, are now up in air.
    Might read the brilliant and perhaps more disturbing piece published in The Atlantic recently, entitled "How American Politics Went Insane".
    Thanks again.
    Hope all is well.
    c
  • Active Managers Start To Feel The Pain
    FYI: Even after the shock of the financial crisis, managing other people’s money remained a pretty great business. While banks shed jobs, employment at the largest publicly traded asset managers rose about 20 percent from 2008 to 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Now top executives at some of the largest fund companies, including Larry Fink at BlackRock and Gregory Johnson at Franklin Resources, are warning that a reckoning is coming.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/active-managers-start-to-feel-the-pain
  • Pathway Advisors Aggressive Growth and Conservative Funds to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580216000166/stickerpathwayfundsliquidati.htm
    497 1 stickerpathwayfundsliquidati.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    PATHWAY ADVISORS AGGRESSIVE GROWTH FUND
    PATHWAY ADVISORS CONSERVATIVE FUND
    Supplement dated June 20, 2016
    to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated August 31, 2015,
    for the Pathway Advisors Aggressive Growth Fund and Pathway Advisors Conservative Fund,
    each a series of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”)
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust, based upon the recommendation of Hanson McClain, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Pathway Advisors Aggressive Growth Fund and Pathway Advisors Conservative Fund (the “Funds”), each a series of the Trust, has determined to close and liquidate the Funds. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of each Fund and its shareholders that such Fund be closed and liquidated as series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on July 15, 2016.
    The Board approved a Plan of Termination, Dissolution and Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which each Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of each Fund’s liquidation, each Fund will be closed to new shareholder purchases effective as of the close of business on June 30, 2016 and closed to all existing shareholder purchases on July 5, 2016. However, any distributions declared to shareholders of a Fund after June 30, 2016, and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on July 15, 2016 will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although each Fund will be closed to any new purchases as of July 5, 2016, you may continue to redeem your shares of a Fund after July 5, 2016, as provided in the Prospectus. Please note, however, that each Fund will be liquidating its assets as of the close of business on July 15, 2016.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if a Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on July 15, 2016, the effective time of the liquidation, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of July 15, 2016, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    All expenses incurred in connection with the transactions contemplated by the Plan, other than the brokerage commissions associated with the sale of portfolio securities, will be paid by the Adviser.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
  • Flash Boys win approval for new IEX Group Stock Exchange
    The IEX has been a flash point in the broader debate over technological changes that have altered the basic functioning of the American stock markets over the last two decades. IEX won support — and financial backing — from several large mutual fund companies, which said that the exchange would help them trade more cheaply and efficiently, as well as from hundreds of small investors, many of whom read “Flash Boys” and wrote in to the S.E.C.
    Brad Katsuyama, the chief executive of IEX, said on Friday night that the company was “grateful and humbled by the support we’ve received from the investor community, without it, we may have faced a different result.”
    In addition to the speed bump, the IEX has said it will not offer the same fees or rebates that other exchanges do to attract traders, a common practice at other exchanges that has been criticized for distorting trading incentives. The IEX also offers fewer complicated ways to enter trades than other exchanges, in an effort to simplify trading.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/business/dealbook/iex-group-gains-approval-for-stock-exchange.html?_r=0
  • Consuelo Mack WealthTrack Preview: Guest Francois Trahan, Co-Founder, Cornerstone Macro
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    June 16, 2016
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    This week’s guest is telling clients to forget everything they’ve learned about investing, that the old rules are about to fail them and that we are in a new era.
    Interested? I am! So I invited Francois Trahan to join us for an exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview.
    Financial Thought leader Trahan is Co-Founder and Head of the Investment Strategy team at Cornerstone Macro, an independent macro research and strategy firm he and his partners launched in 2013. Trahan was ranked the #1 Portfolio Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine in 2015 for the fourth year in a row, as he has been for nine out of the last twelve years. As one institutional investor, who voted for Trahan told the magazine: “Francois is not afraid to make a bold call or to change his position when the data indicate that it is right to do so”.
    Among his recent bold calls was turning bullish on the stock market late last year, predicting a “global recovery, weaker dollar and higher oil prices” would drive stock markets higher when the exact opposite was happening. Needless to say he turned out to be right as the S&P 500 hit new highs last week.
    By far his boldest thesis is a macro one, which he characterizes as the most important in his career. According to Cornerstone Macro’s research, the economy has moved from the era known as the Great Moderation, also known as the “Goldilocks” period during the 1980s, 1990s and until the financial crisis, when inflation was tamed, interest rates declined and household debt increased, to the current era marked by deflation concerns, still declining interest rates and falling household debt.
    The Great Moderation also resulted in declining crisis risk - by one measure to the lowest level in 100 years - which totally reversed during the financial crisis, to the current era of elevated crisis risk.
    I asked Trahan what these changes mean for the markets and why they require a new investment approach.
    In my EXTRA interview with Trahan, available exclusively on our website, he will explain why he is watching for signs of inflation when everyone else is focusing on the risk of deflation. If you’d like to watch the show before the weekend it’s available to our PREMIUM viewers right now. You can also find the One Investment picks of our guests and my Action Points there.
    Thank you so much for watching. Have a happy Father’s Day this weekend! Make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
  • Ten Simple Rules for Investors
    Hi Guys,
    I almost always prefer and select simple over complex. Too, too much can go South with complex investment strategies. A ton of financial experts agree with that investment philosophy.
    There is the danger of oversimplification. However, here is a list of Ten Simple Rules for Investors advocated by one such famous expert. I won’t name that expert just yet, but if you have any doubts, those doubts will be completely eliminated by Rule number 10. Here is the list:
    1. Remember Reversion to the Mean
    2. Time Is Your Friend, Impulse Is Your Enemy
    3. Buy Right and Hold Tight
    4. Have Realistic Expectations
    5. Forget the Needle, Buy the Haystack
    6. Minimize the Croupier’s Take
    7. There’s No Escaping Risk
    8. Beware of Fighting the Last War
    9. The Hedgehog Bests the Fox
    10. Stay the Course!
    Yes, these are rules generated by Jack Bogle. Simple enough to understand, but sometimes extremely difficult to execute.
    Here is the Link to Bogle’s Chapter 9 of “The Clash of Cultures” book that contains his rules of the road:
    http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/c09.pdf
    Enjoy. Bogle is forever a stimulating read with solid investment advice. If there is one constant in the investment universe, that constant is Jack Bogle. He is a rock. Take care everyone.
    Best Regards.
  • Fidelity news & changes
    Well that reads like something put together between Fidelity's legal and marketing departments. Fidelity does a good job with index funds, but this is not a helpful press release.
    I was hoping for something better organized, since I got a ton of emails last night about lots of Fidelity funds opening, yet they weren't up on the Fidelity website. This is not the "scorecard" I was looking for. The bottom line is that Fidelity has added a few index funds (notably Total Int'l, i.e. all world ex-US), and is now more amenable to selling through third party platforms.
    Marketing: Instead of saying what Fidelity is doing, and then talking about the company (which seems to be the usual way of making financial announcements), it starts by saying how big and storied Fidelity is in the index fund space (really?). Then after describing the index fund changes, it goes on to say, but wait, Fidelity is really an active fund company that's doing so much better than its benchmarks. Say what?
    Legal: Technically everything written is legally correct, because it walks a very narrow path. Fidelity is indeed the second largest index mutual fund manager. Let's deconstruct that.
    If we include ETFs, which seem to be the preferred channel for index funds but are not legally mutual funds, then Fidelity falls behind such names as Blackrock and SSgA (SPDRs).
    Manage - if one thinks of management as the day-to-day running of the fund, Fidelity doesn't manage its index funds (or at least many of them, I haven't checked them all). HABDX is legally managed by Harbor but really run by Pimco, and BLYPX is managed by American Beacon but really run by Bridgeway. Likewise Fidelity index funds are legally managed by FMR but really run by Geode (formerly a Fidelity subsidiary, but now independent).
    The manager matters even for index funds, especially when sampling is used.
  • discussion topics for Teresa Kong, Matthews Asia Strategic Income and Credit Opportunities?
    I always ask the same question. How much should someone invest in Asian Fixed Income? Say that someone is a 50yo with a 50/50 stock/ bond ratio. Say they are 20-25 in foreign stocks. Say they have above average risk tolerance. Just a ballpark guess on her part. I realize this is not a fair question since she is not a financial advisor.
    What is she worried about in the future? Is she hedging for an Asian black swan?
    Best, Mike.
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    According to a recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis (6/3) my portfolio holds about 6.1% in real estate while the 500 Index hold about 2.4%. This is about 2.5 times what the Index holds so, with this, I plan to do nothing as some of my funds might be buying (maybe some selling). Anyway, 6% to 9% is all I wish to hold in any of the minority sectors of materials, real estate, communication services and utilities; and, 9% to 12% in any of the majority sectors of consumer cyclical, financial services, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive and healthcare. Overall in the minority sectors I am holding a total of 28% which is more than double the 500 Index weightings with the balance being held in the majority sectors (72%). On average this computes to about a 7% weighting in each of the minority sectors and a 10% average weighting in each of the majority sectors.
  • Get Real: Billions Set To Pour Into Real-Estate Investments
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    A big change is coming in how stock indexes measure the market, one that's likely to push tens of billions of dollars into real-estate investments, according to estimates. All that cash could drive further gains for a group of stocks that's already done quite well since the financial crisis. Critics say it could also make an area of the market that they call overvalued even more so.
    The deluge of cash is the result of a re-think by index providers about how they see the market's construction. The Standard & Poor's 500 and other indexes have long split the market into 10 main sectors, such as technology companies or utilities or industrials. After the market closes on Aug. 31, S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI will carve out real estate to become the 11th sector.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ebe0d17e6ae747f89df70a400299c2bd/get-real-billions-set-pour-real-estate-investments