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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Matthews Asia
    @LLJB Sorry for somewhat highjacking your thread, LLJB. Are you getting anything outta this back-and-forth? Yes, most all of what they write is a bit too sanguine for my taste, but it has been this way since Mathews' inception--- never too effusive in their enthusiasm, and never too blue about any setback to investments in the region. They are a good shop, and a person can do well by them, esp. if one has cash available for forming "a good base" in one or more of their funds when things go down and are stinky after a major correction. And that's my plan (at least, until tomorrow :) ).
    @JohnChisum My apologies for "mis-remembering;" yes, it was the Pacific Tiger from which you "took leave," and your rationale for the exit was clear and sensible, and your timing seemed right (to me).
    With respect to when this REIT stuff happened, the MAPIX semiannual shows 22% financial (end of June) and the most recent MAPIX fact sheet (end of Sept) shows 14% financial. Like most foreign MFs, MAPIX's investments are reported by country, so it is hard to tell which holding companies were involved, and when.
  • Matthews Asia
    Thanks to quite a few discussions here I've become a bigger fan of Matthews Asia and have added to investments I had previously (MAPIX), made investments in new funds that fit my needs (MEASX) and started tracking funds that I find interesting and/or possible future additions to my portfolio (MSMLX, MAINX).
    When I read their literature, which I do on a regular basis as I suspect many others do because most of it is kindly linked here, I'm excited about the opportunities in Asia. I'm also aware that they don't write much that's negative about Asia and in many cases they take on what they apparently consider misperceptions about Asia. They have recently defended China's property market, China's growth prospects and they have suggested that China's perceived protectionism is a healthy aspect of financial reform.
    While I don't disagree with many of their points I continue to worry a little that they have an incentive to market arguments that are supportive of their funds rather than a purely objective analysis of each topic. I would welcome any thoughts about Matthews' literature, investing in Asia generally or any other related topics.
  • This Week's Top Bond Market Stories 11/22/14
    A little overdone on the headline,but an issue to contemplate:
    Fund boards, management go on high alert around bond liquidity
    BY JESSICA TOONKEL Reuters.com
    NEW YORK Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:05am EST
    The concern is this: As the Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, which many expect will begin to happen next year, investors will rush to sell bonds as their value drops in a rising interest rate environment. Historically Wall Street banks have been the buyers of these bonds, but regulations and capital requirements imposed since the financial crisis have forced these firms to slash their inventories.
    "I look around and ask 'at the end of the day how easy would it be to sell what I own?', and the answer is it is much more challenging," said Jason Brady, a fixed income portfolio manager at Sante Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management, which has $70 billion in assets under management, $17 billion of which is in fixed income.
    In the end, however, the best way managers can get comfortable with liquidity concerns is to be prepared to hold on to the bonds in their portfolio for the long-term, said Margie Patel, senior portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management, speaking Thursday at the Reuters summit.
    "Liquidity is illusory for most bonds," she said. "The only time you need it is when you can't get it."
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/24/funds-bondholders-alert-idUSL2N0TA1CH20141124
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Bruce Berkowitz: (Revisited) Powerful Financials ?
    Regardless whether the government is right or wrong to the shareholders, this is an example of downside risk of narrowly focus (financial) and concentrated mutual funds.
  • The Four Best Investment Newsletters For Funds
    FYI: Most investment newsletters are worthless. What’s worse, some are dangerous to your financial health. But a handful are first-rate. Thanks to the work of Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, who has been painstakingly tracking newsletter recommendations for 34 years, it’s possible to separate the gold from the dross.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=12993
  • George Invests $500,000,000 With Bill
    Is there any doubt?
    that:"We're all Keynesians (Krugmans)now."The last two paragraphs from a Bill Gross perspective posted today @ Seeking Alpha
    "But now at 500% to 600% of GDP (shadow debt included), it’s a Sisyphean struggle just to stay above water. Inflation, in other words – or in simple math – is required to pay for prior inflation. Deflation is no longer acceptable.
    Such is the dilemma facing central bankers (and supposedly fiscal authorities) in 2014 and beyond: How to create inflation. They’ve made a damn fine attempt at it – have they not? Four trillion dollars in the U.S., two trillion U.S. dollar equivalents in Japan, and a trillion U.S. dollars coming from the ECB’s Draghi in the eurozone. Not working like it used to, the trillions seem to seep through the sandy loam of investment and innovation straight into the cement mixer of the marketplace. Prices go up, but not the right prices. Alibaba’s stock goes from $68 on opening day to $92 in the first minute, but wages simply sit there for years on end. One economy (the financial one) thrives while the other economy (the real one) withers.
    Perhaps sooner rather than later, investors must recognize that modern day inflation, while a necessary condition for survival, is not a sufficient condition for increasing wealth at a rate necessary to satisfy future liabilities associated with education, health care, and a satisfactory retirement. The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, Grant’s deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity."
    -William H. Gross
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2699545-the-trouble-with-porosity-and-prosperity
  • Buffett and Munger: Latticework of Models
    Hi Guys,
    Thank you for responding to my post.
    I really hope I motivated you to think about the general and specific market advice that Munger cobbled together in his outstanding lecture. That lecture might just be the very best that I’ve ever read. If it appears that I’m goading just a little, I think it is warranted given the overall quality of the proffered wisdom.
    The Munger advice to extract and merge operational methods and rules from various hard disciplines (mostly scientific) is particularly useful. Familiarity, and not expertise, is all that is required. Anyone can do it.
    The trick is to connect concept A from one scientific discipline with concept B from another area of expertise. That’s all Munger is proposing; he is not inventing anything new; he is simply integrating findings in several disciplines to investment decision-making. The lecture is terrific stuff.
    Yes, I pulled the aircraft armament story from a book. I try to attract attention to somewhat dry scientific studies with practical stories. Stories are better at this goal than bland statistics. I’m not sure, but I believe I read the aircraft story in Peter Bevelin’s fine book “Seeking Wisdom, from Darwin to Munger”. I highly recommend the book.
    It is perplexing that almost all investors, especially those who participate in the MFO discussions, deploy Conditional Probability methods without acknowledging that they do so. I suspect it is related to their shortfall in High School level math skills.
    The typical US citizen exhibits both a math and a science skill deficiency. Based on comparable test scores, International institutions consistently place the US population in the lower one-third of the National groupings in math and science. That hurts investing decisions.
    Physics professor John Allen Paulos said; “Innumeracy …… plagues far too many otherwise knowledgeable citizens”. I agree, therefore I post on this subject on the MFO Board.
    There are many ways to introduce and explain Conditional Probability. I especially like MFOer Shostakovich’s unique way of expressing it. He said: “ Always update your prior. …….. And recognize that in many situations even a weakly informative prior can save you(r) bacon.” Indeed, small adjustments can integrate into an oversized positive impact over time.
    The main theme of Nate Silver’s book “The Signal and the Noise” also emphasizes the huge influence that Conditional Probability plays in updating forecasts. Chapters in Silver’s book highlight both successes and failures in numerous applications. Weather predicting is a success story; earthquake predicting is a failure at this juncture. He details the issues with financial forecasting in a chapter titled “If You Can’t Beat’em”. The book deserves your focused notice too.
    Once again, thanks for your kind attention.
    Best Wishes.
  • Experts Say Stocks Are Going To Crash—So What Are You Going To Do About It?
    Anytime an article or headline starts with "Experts", you can bet it will be full of crazy predictions. Just look at Faber. He got the 1987 call right, but has missed almost every big prediction since then. But he is considered an "expert" by the financial press. Go figure. And most of the so-called experts are really trying to sell their worthless newsletters for ridiculously high prices.
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    Best- and worst-performing alternatives funds
    Ranked by one-year total returns
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119924
    Largest alternatives funds
    Ranked by net assets
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119925
    Off-Topic
    FOREIGN POLICY UNVEILS SIXTH ANNUAL
    “100 LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS” ISSUE
    Krugman not on list, Thomas Piketty is.A two to three paragraph synopsis of people who have impacted 2014 to date.
    November 17, 2014 — WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Foreign Policy released its sixth annual “100 Leading Global Thinkers” issue, recognizing a year of tumult, protest, inspiration, and new beginnings.
    “Each year our list of leading Global Thinkers spotlights those who have translated their ideas into actions, impacting millions worldwide,” said David Rothkopf, Editor and CEO of The FP Group. “It is a chance to reflect on who and what is driving change today and who will shape it tomorrow.”
    The issue, and the Global Thinkers, will be honored at a dinner celebration in Washington on the evening of the 17th. Between 40 and 50 of the honorees, coming in from all parts of the world, will participate in a Town Hall discussion at The Four Seasons Hotel. Earlier, they will also join panel discussions as part of "Transformational Trends: A Year of Disruptive Thinking", an innovative policy conference, now in its 3rd year, jointly sponsored by FP and the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff. Secretary of State John Kerry is the keynote speaker of the conference.
    This year’s issue focuses on the events that disrupted the global order – for better or for worse. In a year when Russia annexed Crimea and the Islamic State redefined the very nature of terrorism, a group of Indian scientists and engineers also showed the world how to send a spacecraft to Mars on a budget, and a Japanese naturalist demonstrated how trees could be used to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. In this issue, Foreign Policy celebrates those who have meaningfully contributed to improving our global community, and acknowledge the impact of those who have disrupted it.
    This year’s diverse group of Global Thinker honorees are organized into ten categories:
    The “Decision Makers” includes India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Mexico’s Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray; the “Challengers,” who have defied the norm and reshuffled the deck, include journalist Kara Swisher, and Joshua Wong, the student leader of the Hong Kong protests; among the “Naturals” is Ruth Buendia, the Peruvian activist; “The Innovators” includes Harvard engineer Jennifer Lewis and microbiologist Janet Iwasa; and “The Advocates,” those who risk everything to fight for what they believe in, include civic activist Hanna Hopko.
    “The Chroniclers,” are the masters of storytelling, among them political television personality John Oliver; there are “The Healers,” such as Drs. Kevin Whaley and Larry Zeitlin who created ZMapp, a major breakthrough for Ebola treatment; “The Artists” includes sculptor and artist Kara Walker; “The Moguls,” including Jack Ma of Alibaba Group, are a collection of individuals always looking for “the next big thing”; and finally there are “The Agitators”, among them terrorist leaders, ideologues, and wily financiers, including the Islamic State’s Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. When its history is written, 2014 will be remembered as a year when remarkable individuals changed the world as we know it.
    From the Editor’s Letter: "Take our cover image, a Molotov cocktail in mid-explosion. It’s a metaphor for violence, certainly, but also one for defiance, for resistance, for unleashing the startlingly new. The image, like the majority of Global Thinkers on our list, is a reminder that change can start at any second: change that is destructive, beautiful, inspirational – sometimes all at once."
    Also in the latest issue, journalist and author George Packer writes about today’s “Agitators”, from the annexation of Crimea to the rise of ISIS; Gillian Tett, award- winning journalist from the Financial Times discusses the public’s enthrallment with Thomas Piketty; and environmentalist Bill McKibben writes an essay on the climate change crisis in 2014.
    VISIT THE INTERACTIVE SITE FOR FP’S LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2014 HERE
    http://globalthinkers.foreignpolicy.com
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    While politics does have an effect on investments (especially some sectors), one should be able to separate politics from broad investment choices, although I think some can't when it comes to their party versus the other.
    Rodriguez should read Hugh Hendry's letter.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/hugh-hendry-i-believe-central-bankers-are-terrified#comments
    "However, I clearly confused everyone with my choice of language. What I should have said is that investors are perhaps misconstruing rising equity prices as a traditional bull market spurred on by revenue and earnings growth, and becoming fearful of a reversal, when instead the persistent upwards drift in stock markets is more a reflection of the steady erosion of the soundness of the global monetary system and therefore the rise in stock prices is something that is likely to prevail for some time. There is more to it of course, as I will attempt to explain, but not much.
    This should be a great time to be a macro manager. It is almost without precedent: the world's monetary authorities are targeting higher risk asset prices as a policy response to restoke economic demand. Whether you agree with such a policy is irrelevant. You need to own stocks. And yet, remarkably, the most contentious thing you can say in the macro world today is “I’m bullish”."
    "October is simply another example. US stocks fell over 10%. I don't really know why. Was it the threat of the end of QE or a global pandemic or more misgivings as to the state of affairs in Greece and Europe's enduringly weak economy? It doesn't really matter. Such is the perceived risk in the financial system that enough investors now anticipate a policy response whenever the S&P falls more than 10%. This ensured that shorts were covered and volatility sold in mid-October. The fixed income market's expectations for hawkish future Fed rate hikes evaporated with stock price weakness and other risk markets soon rallied; the S&P is now back to its all-time high.
    Pity the macro manager then who had to stop loss mid-month; that used to be me. But I widened my tolerance for loss. We have no desire to lose money but unless something tangible happens to challenge our narrative we are less willing to automatically reduce our risk taking in response to modest, if rapid, short term market gyrations. Making money requires making the right calls of course but just as importantly it necessitates that we provide trades with enough breathing space to develop and hopefully prosper.
    So why all this enthusiasm for upside equity risk?
    To my mind the current period is analogous to the Plaza Accord of 1985 when central bankers agreed to intervene in the currency market to drive the value of the dollar lower. The fast moving world of FX was deemed a more expeditious way of correcting for the huge US current account deficit than the laborious and slow process of waiting for the totality of countless micro wage and productivity deals to rectify the yawning trade gap. No one really knew for sure how high the yen or Deutsche Mark should trade back then but this didn’t stop macro managers from being very long such positions."
    etc etc
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    While I agree with Clancy and DavidMoran, I think there's an important underlying point to be made: Politics does very much impact investors in all the various markets (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.). Whether you're talking fiscal policy, regulation of financial markets and institutions, or the subtle (and not so subtle) pressures brought to bear on the Fed, politics matters.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    FYI: Legendary fund manager Robert Rodriguez, who forecast the global financial crisis, sees money managers and advisors in peril. They will be victims of their own heedlessness, he says.
    The day of reckoning will come within three years in a financial crisis at least as big and pernicious as The Great Recession, he told ThinkAdvisor in a recent, exclusive interview. The country is treading a tenuous path toward another disaster of massive proportions, according to Rodriguez.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/10/27/bob-rodriguez-new-great-recession-coming-in-3-year?page_all=1
    M* Snapshot Of FPA Capital Funds: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/fpa/0C00001YR9/fund-list.aspx
  • G-20 agrees to boost growth by $2 trillion
    Simpson-Bowles anyone ?
    "The summit also included agreements to crack down on tax dodging, strengthen the financial system, deal with climate change and a transatlantic trade deal between the U.S. and EU.Such meetings are typically marked by grandiose promises that are seldom met, so the summit agreed on a new regime, run by the IMF and the OECD, to hold countries accountable if they do not deliver."
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2130215-g20-commits-to-grow-economy-russia-isolated-over-ukraine
    OECD uses its wealth of information on a broad range of topics to help governments foster prosperity and fight poverty through economic growth and financial stability. We help ensure the environmental implications of economic and social development are taken into account.
    http://www.oecd.org/about/whatwedoandhow/
    I M F anyone? No selfies here!
    http://www.hedgeho.com/wp-content/uploads/strauss-kahn.jpg
    Elsewhere:
    Tokyo shares skid as Japan slips into recession
    Reuters By Lisa Twaronite
    - Japanese stocks skidded on Monday, helping the yen rebound from a fresh seven-year low against the dollar touched after data showed Japan unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter as its economy shrank.
    The shockingly downbeat report reinforced expectations Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will delay a sales tax hike, set for October next year, after a hike in the tax in April took a heavy toll on consumption.
    The disappointing GDP data sent the Nikkei stock average <.N225> tumbling 2 percent
  • NASDAQ - next stop all time highs?
    Anyone believe the March 2000 all time high in the NASDAQ will be taken out sooner than later? It's less than 10% away. I would have preferred to have played this via technology funds ala say a PRGTX, but instead find myself with AAPL, SWKS, MSFT and as of this A.M. BABA, albeit the later is not on the NASDAQ. Does anyone have a favorite technology stock and one that is a tight rising channel as the aforementioned.
    Edit: I am less than 10% away from my penultimate (next to last) financial goal and would be nice if it could be achieved via tech. But more likely junk funds if and when they ever come back to life.
  • Is Someone Scamming Vanguard Investors?
    Don't see anything from Vanguard, but someone from Chase wanted my NEW address change, when I Called (not Chase) they wanted ALL my personal financial info. to stop any address changes (all BS). So I closed my chase account. Done with them...
    They wouldn't admit it but they knew of the email, and notified no one!
  • Art Cashin won't say it - UK Inflation below 1%, not a good sign
    Not sure what Art Cashin has to do with it.
    The financial media won't talk about a lot of things in regards to the economy. Like talk about this:
    http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/223578-obamacare-architect-lack-of-transparency-helped-law-pass
    "ObamaCare architect: 'Stupidity' of voters helped bill pass"
    or this:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/fed-won-americas-01-are-now-wealthier-bottom-90
    But yeah, Europe/UK are not in great shape.
  • Is Someone Scamming Vanguard Investors?
    FYI: Phishing for emails and financial account numbers is a dastardly game that’s often played through email.
    But some Vanguard investors with accounts at Vanguard Brokerage have received letters (real, honest-to-goodness snail-mail letters delivered by the U.S. Postal Service) that look like they are from Vanguard Brokerage, notifying them that automatic email delivery of shareholder materials, like annual reports from outside funds, has been suspended.
    The letters then offer up a couple of website URLs, instructing the recipient to visit the site to re-enroll. One is called myedocumentsuite.com, and the other I’ve seen is netxinvestor.com.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2014/11/vanguard-investors-phishing-scam/print
  • Are Alternatives an Asset Class?
    This is totally Cray Cray:

    “Over 60% of investors aren’t quite sure what a liquid alternative is, but over 50% would buy it if their [financial adviser] would recommend it ... ”

    Oh, and let me complete the math: 100% of the managers of liquid alternative funds will pay themselves handsomely with generous management fees.
    Sorry, but I have yet to see any objective evidence that common investors must own alternative funds as part of a diversified portfolio.
    Kevin
  • 10 Best Investing Sites for Mobile Users: 2014
    FYI: Dalbar names financial services companies with mobile websites that stand out. Hello John Chisum & Scott
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/11/11/10-best-investing-sites-for-mobile-users-2014?t=mutual-funds&page_all=1
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    I hope this is an appropriate addition to this thread... (not generally a good start to any message, I realize).
    This year looks like it will be a record year for capital gains distributions. After years of thinking about it, I've put together a free website to serve as a one-stop shop for gathering capital gains estimates. My database has 250 firms and already has links to nearly 90 firms' estimates. The information I share is less valuable to the folks that are reviewing this thread, but I do think the site is more accessible and I do provide additonal information. (I'm currently posting links to preliminary information or even 2013 links if that's all that is available.)
    The site is CapGainsValet.com. Although the site is free, like MFO, I am asking for financial support. In my case, I'm asking for donations to my favorite charity.
    This is the first place I am notifying about the site. I could not think of a better group to reach out to before I try to spread the word. Please let me know your thoughts and recommendations.