Yes. Be careful out there. Remember the tech bubble in 2000? Global financial crisis in 2007? S&P 500 declined 45-50% over a couple of years and took more years to recover. It happens.
Stock markets may be in the early stages of such decline, maybe not. But risks to the downside seem far greater now than any lost opportunity to the upside. Just my view as I continue to lighten my exposure.

These past few years, it's been difficult to imagine what events could finally drag down an unflinching bull market in equities. Then COVID did.....but only for 6 weeks. It was barely a blip on the radar screen.
Today we mix sky high inflation & supply disruptions + Russian conflict + rising interest rates along with Fed Balance Sheet reduction + talks of possible recession, etc. Its certainly not all doom and gloom, just reversion a bit closer to historical norms......temporarily.......until the next series of Fed interventions. Rest assured that the backstop can't be removed for too long. The Fed will always tinker. Raising rates by 50 bp per meeting must be absolutely killing Powell. God forbid he goes to 75. I wonder if he pumps his own gas or buys groceries.

PRWAX has outperformed TRBCX as well as FDGRX over the last few years.

TurboTax maker will pay $141M in settlement over misleading ads for free tax-filing
AP, via NPR

California-based Intuit Inc. will suspend TurboTax's "free, free, free" ad campaign and pay restitution to nearly 4.4 million taxpayers ...
Under the agreement, Intuit will provide restitution to consumers who started using the commercial TurboTax Free Edition for tax years 2016 through 2018 and were told that they had to pay to file even though they were eligible for the version of TurboTax offered as part of the IRS Free File program.
Consumers are expected to receive a direct payment of approximately $30 for each year that they were deceived into paying for filing services, [NY State Attorney General] James said. They will automatically receive notices and checks by mail.

Friends added soxl tsla fngu lots tech
I added brk.b Amazon tsla and vang2055 past few 7d along with Ford bonds
Cpa Merrill edge advisor told me 3d ago
Maybe soft landing prob 5-10% more down lots volatility next 4 8 wks but he does not see large recession
Prob have rally by fall winter
Expect banks commodities techs cryptos energy do well next 6 12 months
He is 58 years old...70% stocks 30% bonds fix income will retire 7 8 yrs
Personally i think could be large resistance sp500 ~3960 next 4- 10 days -if breaks may go 3700....maybe bloody red summer

The way I look at it, you’ll get at least 75% of the current inflation rate investing in I-Bonds, assuming you cash out before holding five years.
You may want to take a closer look. Here's a simple example:
- 0% inflation for the period 6-12 months ago
- 6% annualized inflation over the past six months (i.e. prices went up 3%)
If you buy an I-bond "now" and cash out in a year, you'll get 0% for six months, 3% for the next six months, and then forfeit 1.5% (the interest over the last three months). That's a net 1.5% for the twelve months you hold the savings bond - just half of the amount that prices increased over the past six (or twelve) months.
If one is cashing out before the end of five years, what one wants to do is cash out three months after the rates dip. That way, one forfeits the interest during three low-rate months. The example I gave was the opposite, where you'd be forfeiting the three highest paying months - a disproportionately high penalty.

@sma3 “If he expects a significant downturn, I would have thought he would wait.”<— He doesn’t invest this way by timing the market. He just looks at the value of the company relative to the current price and he must have thought the price was reasonable enough. That said, if he’s finding companies that are reasonably priced (finally) then perhaps we are close to a bottom after all.
Re Energy… listened to the CEO of Chevron this AM… and he said that he sees energy prices remaining high for YEARS and not just for quarters.

The way I look at it, you’ll get at least 75% of the current inflation rate investing in I-Bonds, assuming you cash out before holding five years. I bought bonds when the rate was 7.1%, and it will go up to 9.6% for the next six months. So I’m guaranteed at least 6% return, even if inflation plummets later this year. If inflation stays high, I’ll stay invested and appreciate the gains. If it drops, I’ll lose three months interest but still gain more than currently possible with any guaranteed investment.

I get occasional commentary emails from this guy Keith McCullough. Here's what he had to say yesterday. It's never all that hard to figure out where he's coming from.
"After stimulating the economy with largesse for two years, the Fed has finally been tasked to pick up their rate hike axe and break sh*t tomorrow at the FOMC Meeting. The market sees the Fed loading up 250 basis points of additional rate increases as the modal outcome for Fed Operation Break Sh*t #FOBS. And first on the chopping block? Housing."

Are not downturns by whatever we choose to name them part and parcel of our economic system? I was a grad student in American history a million years ago. It’s part of the American experience. Good times. Bad times. They come and go,,,,, sure as high tide follows the low. As the headline says ,,,, “ Recession is inevitable.” Only the timing is newsworthy.
LB

Just a reminder that overnight futures are a poor indicator of the next day's activity. I've seen it flip back the other way too many times.
Make a plan if you don't have one, and then stick to it (even if that means holding tight). Maybe now more than in recent years, its probably a good idea to re-assess your risk tolerance and adjust accordingly.

“So the market has not bottomed yet.”
There’s a 99% chance that’s true. “The market” may not bottom for many months or years yet. If someone has a reliable indicator that will signal the exact bottom, please share. Better still, if someone can announce that one day ahead of time, it would allow us extra time to begin aggressive buying. :)
Now - if you thought a certain fund was worth owning or buying 5 or 6 months ago when it was 10-15% more expensive than today, wouldn’t you love to buy more at today’s 10-15% discount? Or were we blindsided back than - completely unaware that inflation was rising, Russia had designs on Ukraine and had already annexed Crimea, and interest rates were absurdly low and would surely need to rise some day?
Here’s an article from the NYT dated December 4 saying that Russia appears to be preparing to invade Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html

No deployment of dry powder yet. First deployment will be to AA funds mid/end of summer, then into riskier stuff, depending on war in Ukarine. In general I use a 20% downturn as a buy switch in transitional periods such as these. I am a good 10-15 years from retirement and quite comfortable being 30% cash / stable value in my company 401k.

I ask because I’m at a loss. Hopefully some of you have a firmer grip on where we are than I do. I generally look at return on funds I’ve either owned at one time or follow regularly to try to get a bearing. A few I’ve used as reliable benchmarks in years past are bleeding now - normally a signal that it’s a good time to buy.
TRRIX -8.7% YTD
PRSIX -9.4% YTD
TRBCX -25% YTD
The above have lagged far behind their historical performance, Other than for the aberrant 2007-2009 severe market turmoil / destruction, I can’t remember anything close to those numbers. (Maybe briefly in March 2020?)
I also monitor the Dow & the S&P thinking that:
- a 10% near term drop looks interesting
- a 20% drop looks inviting
- a 30% drop seems compelling
Currently, the Dow is off 9.25% this year and the S&P down 13.3%.
However, this time it may be different. The conundrum of higher inflation, Fed tightening, war in Europe may have tilted the tables so that past indicators are no longer reliable.
Here’s an old thread from last October about Buying the Dip recovered from the trash bin. In it I commented: “I’ll bet you a nickel the Dow closes below 34,000 again at some future point this year.” I was wrong. The Dow stayed above that level thru December 31. However, we all know where it’s gone this year. The Dow closed at 32,977 Friday.

Don’t have much dry powder. Have a small limit order in place (adding to existing equity holding) for Monday’s open. Might add bit more if markets become “unglued” early in the week. A 7% weighting in TAIL helped Friday as it rose about 2%. Overall, portfolio was down in line with my tracker.
Carrying dry powder has been expensive in recent years with the very low rates of return. Expecting some fireworks the second half of next week as markets digest the FOMC actions + press conference.

.....Just in general, re: 2022 damage: it's a crazy, volatile year! Nice to see TODAY, but there's a downside coming, always, and it 's seldom been mild, in '22 so far. I'm watching Natgas... Since uncle Vladimir the pus-licker shut off Poland and Bulgaria. Not his biggest markets, of course. He's sending a signal. Maybe it will finally prompt the EU to stop their typical dithering and actually coalesce in order to DECIDE about something, and then (God forbid!) DO it! Creation of the EU is a smart thing, rather than go to war every 20-30 years against each other. But the bureaucracy is insane.

Some analysis from Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal (4/27/22):
“Now he faces fresh challenges. Mr. Musk has hocked roughly $60 billion of his Tesla Inc. stock—about one third of his stake—as collateral for bank loans, tying his personal fortune to Twitter’s. He must come up with $21 billion more in cash, which could mean selling additional shares in Tesla, just as the company is hitting its stride. Tesla shares have lost about 8% since Mr. Musk first disclosed a Twitter stake, suggesting investors are worried he will be distracted or financially stretched. Twitter will be saddled with hundreds of millions of dollars in annual interest payments, a risk for any company but especially in this case, as Mr. Musk has said he doesn’t care whether it makes money—it has had trouble doing so over the years.”
I share all the concerns mentioned in this thread. But I wouldn’t want to bet against this guy. He’s usually 3 steps ahead of everybody else. That said, SpaceX and Tesla came darned close to failing before he turned them around thru grit and perseverance. Worth remembering that Musk was co-founder of what is now PayPal where he made his initial millions - a revolutionary concept at the time. I’m thinking he views Twitter as primarily a launching platform for all kinds of innovative / lucrative ventures into finance and media which we haven’t even begun to comprehend yet. Why does the already wealthiest person on the planet need even more money? Imagine the cost of establishing a permanent human colony on Mars - his ultimate goal.
(Comments posted using Starlink internet service)

TQQQ = 3X leverage QQQ. Some would accept hitting a home run once every 5 years.

@MikeM - Yep. As you know the miners don’t always run in sync with the metal. I’ve held mining fund OPGSX for years and haven’t bought or sold any for about a year. Dead flat in my case. Lipper shows it up about 1% YTD, but down 5% for a full year.
Gold flirted with $2,000 the past month than fell to around $1900 recently. Has been below $1800 during the past 12-15 months. Have a bit in mining company WPM. So, when I want to add or cut exposure to the miners it’s easier to buy or sell WPM than messing with a mutual fund & the restrictions they impose.
Haven’t held bullion, but PRPFX does.

@rforno Capital International Group has a 560M stake and Blackrock a 700M stake in MSTR. MSTR owns almost 1% of all available Bitcoin at a low cost basis. While I'm not a personal fan of leveraging Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin (as they have recently in a big way), it's being done with full board approval and transparently. I don't like their debt to equity ratio.
It's a software company that generates huge cash flow that instead of placing that cash in a bank and earning negative interest, they buy Bitcoin. So far, that gamble has paid off handsomely. Free cash flow has grown dramatically in the last couple of years. The point I was trying to make is the direct correlation of MSTR to Bitcoin with lower costs.
To MSTR, Bitcoin is just a better store of value. I do own a tiny bit.
@Anna imho my answers are: No, No, Depends if you meant speculative vs. contrarian.