Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds @hank, I-Bond sales data are available as Excel download,
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_tdsecuritiesissued.xlsmMonthly I-Bond Sales10/2021 $0.23 billion
11/2021 $1.07 billion (new rate 7.12%)
12/2021 $2.78 billion
01/2022 $3.26 billion
02/2022 $0.91 billion
As noted in the I-Bond thread, one can bunch up lot of buying as gift I-Bonds. So, let us say that you have 5 favorite relatives and friends (include me, if you want (-:)), then you can buy, say, $100K for EACH in gift I-Bonds to HOLD in your Treasury Direct account, and dole/DELIVER them out at $10K/yr/person over 10
years. That would be $510K total in I-Bond purchases NOW or ON 5/1/22, $500K in gift I-Bonds and "puny" $10K for yourself (-:). Well, this a hypothetical for those who complain about not being able to buy enough but think of the estate and asset transfer angle. Of course, you cannot have the gifted bonds yourself for any reason (actions are irreversible).
What if the I-Bond rate collapses in a year or two? Well, then you still go through your estate plan but the receiver can sell them and buy something else.
Edit/Add: Treasury Direct also has linkable history of Savings Bond sales, 1935-2012. Sales peak (including all types of Savings Bonds) were in 1944 ($16.04 billion; WW II time), 1978 ($7.96 billion), 1986 ($11.91 billion), 1992 ($17.70 billion), 2001 ($11.58 billion), 2005 ($22.43 billion). I am sure there is a good story behind the ups and downs in the Savings Bond sales.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/history/history_sbsales.htm
While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again FAIRX ranks in the top 1 % percentile for Large Value funds (YTD)...rising from last in class...the fund's bifurcated performance over the last decade has been a very bumpy ride for shareholders. I exited the fund
years ago. M* places FAIRX in the LV category yet describes it's investment style as Small Growth.
77% of the fund is one company (St Joe = JOE) which probably was bought at a low in 2008. JOE's weight seems to skew it into the SG investment style while the other holdings (24% of portfolio) appears more LV. 42% of JOE is owned by Fairholme. For that privileged Fairholme shareholders pay a 1% ER. Ouch!
Anyone use this fund in small amounts? Attempt to buy the lows, not the highs when it comes to the fund.

What are you buying - if anything? The only munis I follow are the short-intermediate high yield ones. IMHO they are bottoming right now. PRIHX will be off nearly 7% YTD after today’s small drop. Depends on what muni(s) you own. But, generally speaking, states are flush with cash. Pension funds are in the best shape they’ve been in for
years. I’d not be selling their bonds at this point. But that 5-7% on I-Bonds sounds nice if you want to lock up a sum for a year. (I knocked a couple % off the advertised rate because there’s a penalty for unloading within 5
years.)
Thanks for adding to the thread
@BaluBalu. :)
Not sure if we've hit bottom on the munis, their dip seems to be lagging the taxable space...but definitely moving into excellent buying opportunity. The best market moves I've made in my entire investing life was going big into Vanguard HY corporate on its lows and same with Vanguard HY Tax exempt mainly when people thought that market was going to implode. Just keep buying more and either you will get capital appreciation, higher yield or both. Yes, I know, rates could just keep rising to the sky...but if that happens then all our plans will be laid to waste, not an investing strategy IMO. Just need to be patient, and collect the income while you wait.
Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds With a lot of discussion about folks building up cash %age, note that fund flows into equities have not slowed this year, while flows into bond funds are negative (redemptions, no surprise there!) and to my amazement, flows into money market funds are also negative this year. The latest 3 mo flows out of MM funds is twice as much as the outflows from bond funds. This data is from Fidelity.
(I also wanted to bump up this thread lest folks forget about it when rates start going down for a few days.)
Outflows from MM funds is an interesting phenomenon when total outflows from MM plus bond funds together constitute 50% more than the inflows into equity funds. And working folks are constantly earning new money and so, I expect MM funds to continuously have inflows. Are folks starting to draw down MM funds to fill their online savings accounts + buy (treasury?) bonds directly? or is there a bigger phenomenon such as private equity + venture investing + multiple home / rental real estate + alternate assets investing?
In the last 4+ years, the only time MM funds saw this much (or bigger) outflows is during the last six months of 2020 when folks were buying first bond funds and then equity funds with both hands, drawing down the trillions of $$ of MM funds built up during the first six months of 2020.
Teach your children well,,,,,,,, It's not unusual for the Primecap team to experience periods of underperformance.
VPMAX trailed the S&P 500 the past three calendar years.
Their funds have always bounced back.
I'm fairly certain that VPMAX will generate good long-term returns for your daughter.
She is fortunate to have this fund available in her 401(k).
What are you buying - if anything? The only munis I follow are the short-intermediate high yield ones. IMHO they are bottoming right now. PRIHX will be off nearly 7% YTD after today’s small drop. Depends on what muni(s) you own. But, generally speaking, states are flush with cash. Pension funds are in the best shape they’ve been in for
years. I’d not be selling their bonds at this point. But that 5-7% on I-Bonds sounds nice if you want to lock up a sum for a year. (I knocked a couple % off the advertised rate because there’s a penalty for unloading within 5
years.)
Thanks for adding to the thread
@BaluBalu. :)
Phaeacian Accent International Value & Global Value Funds to be liquidated In its 5/24/21 issue, Barron's noted that value had been down for so long that many older value managers died, retired, quit or became GARP managers. But it identified a handful of the "next generation" of value managers who had at least 10+
years of career ahead of them. Ironically, Pierre Py was among those. May be it is just a business setback for him.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/140/thread
Phaeacian Accent International Value & Global Value Funds to be liquidated Sorry to see these two go. International Value still has a strong long-term record--3, 5 and 10 years. Key man risk I imagine. As for a pronounceable name, well, isn't that like an American saying at a shop overseas, "What's this in real money?"
It is ever thus...bonds! Thanks
@wxman123. I hope you are right.
The author definitely leaves this open to interpretation. I interpret what this says as we "may" be starting into a prolonged inflationary rising-rate environment like maybe the 60's-70's. I don't take that as a good buying opportunity for total return when what you show is that trends tend to last 10-20
years. As an older guy, I do hope you are right though. It would be nice if bond funds continued to playout as a good diversification role in a portfolio with returns in the 4-6% range again and not a weight that continues to be just a slow(er) money loss than equities.
from the article:
Inflation picked up in the 1960s and rates followed its lead. Prices spiked even higher in the 1970s and inflation didn’t let
up until the Fed raised rates to more than 20% by the early-1980s. That bear market lasted more than 20 years.
Is this the end? Is the four-decade bond bull market over? Should investors prepare for a bear market in bonds?
I’m not smart enough to know these answers, but I thought it would be helpful to look at what happened the last time
bonds were in a sustained rising rate environment.
Teach your children well,,,,,,,, Any of you help your adult kids with their investments? Sometimes it’s a challenge to put my 72 year old mind in the place of a 30 year old accumulator. Happily my kid can max her 401K and she let me pick the funds. My eyes lit up when I saw she could get PRIMECAP Admiral shares with no minimum and I set that at 90% allocation. The remaining 10% went to Total Bond. Six years later I don’t know that she ever looks at it. So today I sent her a Text message gently suggesting she sell the bond fund and replace it with a stable value fund. I explained that her bond fund was likely to do poorly for the near future. Immediately she called me,,,, something doesn’t happen too often, and she read me the riot act. “ Dad,,,, you taught me I was investing for 35 years from now and not to look at it too much and just keep investing.” She told me she didn’t want to make any change and it would be fine. I was shocked. I had unwittingly raised a BOGLEHEAD. I had no idea until today.
Neighbor chat. Inheritance. Minimize tax burden, investing via a taxable account I will tell you for sure
@catch22, if I was handed a 1/2 million dollars at 70
years old to supplement my retirement days, I personally would not seek financial opinions from a posting board. I would go straight to a financial advisor.
Obviously there are a few, if not more than a few posters here that are more than capable of giving good fund-investment advice (yes-also known as opinions). That group very much includes yourself. But none can set up an individualized plan for this couple for the rest of their lives. None can tell them how to set up their investments which seems to include both taxable and non-taxable savings, real estate, a business, SS and maybe more. None of us understands their goals and time horizon, how to safely spend down, where to pull income and in what investment order to divest, how to reduce their tax exposure, ect, ect, ect...
"not random opinions from a posting board."
Random opinions can be good advice or bad advice. Time will tell which is which.
Neighbor chat. Inheritance. Minimize tax burden, investing via a taxable account @yogibearbull Thank you for the follow-up.
Their investing experience is zero, as far personal knowledge of investing choices available. This is why I mentioned a 30% piece of the monies to be in a U.S. equity etf to allow for a type of conservative allocation mix. A starting point, more or less.
@MikeMI didn't mention an advisor in the initial write. I know that several
years ago they had a "retail" advisor affiliated with a large firm to manage a less than $50K T-IRA. I don't know the status of this relationship at this time.
As to a fee only advisor opinion, yes. At least 3 opinions should be adequate. Not unlike a quote/bid/opinion as to a major expenditure for a home remodel or similar expense, one needs more than just one review.
However, you noted:
"not random opinions from a posting board."
I'm fully disappointed with this, from you; regarding valid investing information one is able to obtain at MFO. At the very least, opinions here about this subject provides more input for their future decisions.
There are a number individuals here, who I would place against any chosen "advisor", as to quality investing knowledge and opinion.
Otherwise, there is not much of value for one to be involved with this board, be that a reader or a poster; and one would be as well suited to use an "electronic robo-advisor", yes?
Remain curious,
Catch
FMSDX - Time to Sell? I was sure that there was a MFO piece on FMSDX but I couldn't find it on search. Then I realized that MFO Home is a different site than MFO Discussion, and there I found that piece by
@lynnbolin2021 that I was looking for (
LINK0). This piece compared 5 funds for 5
years then from 10/2017 using Fido charting. I have updated that for 3 funds, FMSDX, FSRRX, FADMX (FAYZX, FSRIX used for longer PV run) using PV charting (it allows 3 funds only) since 10/2017.
LINK1Looking for FMSDX piece in October 18, 2021 Barron's? Check Summary, Part 2 in
LINK2.