Uranium prices have jumped a lot recently, as new meme stock traders have suddenly gotten interested in trading shares of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, symbol SRUUF on OTCMKTS, or U-U.TO on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Relationship of Uranium and Gold.
Uranium’s Message For Gold into 2022

The message from uranium prices is that gold prices are headed higher. And I have no idea why this relationship works.
Six years ago, I uncovered an interesting leading indication relationship, wherein the movements of uranium prices tend to show up again about 7 months later in the movements of gold prices. I cannot think of any reason why this should matter for gold prices, nor why 7 months seems to be the magical lag time.

weekly_chart/uraniums_message_for_gold_into_2022

I have tried a number of different managed futures funds over the years, and find that AHLPX has the best track record. BLNDX has beaten it with about the same risk, but I assume that is because BLNDX can use equities.
M* says BLNDX started in 1/2020 and lost 8% during Covid, beating other hedged equity funds like JHQAX and GATEX, as you might suspect. AHLPX made money that month, however.
Another MFO hedging favorite CTFAX also lost 9%
Lots of different ways to hedge the downside, but it is hard to predict in advance which one will be most effective.

I rarely own Alternative funds but have again been scoping some recently. So please bear with me with this question.
AHLPX is in the same Alternatives subcategory of "Systemic Trends" as PQTAX. Not sure of their respective managed futures exposures and portfolios could be significantly different,
That said, if it were me deciding between the two, all performance metrics I usually review would point me to selecting PQTAX over AHLPX. Volatility is not as an important a metric to me as I subscribe to the axiom of a venerable, former M* who routinely reminded us, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
Could/would you have time to compare/contrast these two funds, especially their holdings which are a wee bit above my pay grade, and state why you would/did select AHLPX over PQTAX.
TIA and understand if not interested in responding.

I have tried a number of different managed futures funds over the years, and find that AHLPX has the best track record. BLNDX has beaten it with about the same risk, but I assume that is because BLNDX can use equities.
M* says BLNDX started in 1/2020 and lost 8% during Covid, beating other hedged equity funds like JHQAX and GATEX, as you might suspect. AHLPX made money that month, however.
Another MFO hedging favorite CTFAX also lost 9%
Lots of different ways to hedge the downside, but it is hard to predict in advance which one will be most effective.

Came across this elsewhere. Thought I’d pass it along.
Story on I Bonds
READ the conditions. The rate is guaranteed only for the first 6 months before it resets. Must keep for 1 year. 3 months penalty if redeemed in under 5 years. Taxes apply when redeemed.

Our state (MI) sets spirit prices for some weird reason. Retailers can charge more if want - but rarely do. Overall, Scotch hasn’t moved much over past several years. One of the better values is Dewars 12-Year at $30 - a noticeable cut above their popular White Label. JW Black, a favorite of mine, runs $40 - occasionally $2 less. Aberfeldy (single malt) at $40 is the best buy going IMHO.
Services seem to be where the prices have risen the most. Noticed big jump picking up a few shirts I had laundered recently. As I remarked on another thread, there’s a 2-3 week wait in our area for car / truck repair. A $335 bill for replacing a front wheel bearing on my pickup nearly knocked me over. But when I checked online, the price was right in the ballpark.

Yes, I see stale and incorrect stuff on Portfolio Manager. I sure am happy NOT to be paying for PREMIUM, myself. This has been repeated over and over already: they just don't care anymore, going back several years. If they get stuff right, then it's right. Otherwise... Yawn.

I've looked into this fund as a domestic micro-cap growth fund as I don't need another small-cap growth fund.
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=NESGX&region=usa&culture=en-US
M* has given it five stars. It has been a top quarterly performer in the WSJ at least on one occasion that I can remember (one was the April 5, 2020 edition, "Hanging In: Stock Funds’ No. 1 Manager Gained 12.8%." There may have been a couple of other occasions, but I can neither find nor remember.
If you don't have a small cap growth fund, this may be a good option as it has been a good performer for the last several years.
From Needham:
https://www.needhamfunds.com/commentary-insight/in-the-news/?news-category=all&news-topic=all&news-year=all
https://www.needhamfunds.com/mutual-funds/small-cap-growth-fund/
Another article:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210311005645/en/Needham-Small-Cap-Growth-Fund-Wins-Two-2021-Refinitiv-Lipper-Fund-Awards

Wonder what others’ thoughts are on this fund which is classified by Lipper as Small-Cap Core and is a Great Owl over 3/5/10 years?
It has a five-year upside capture ratio of 112.86, downside capture ratio of 63.68, and max drawdown of 16.24%.
Max drawdown over its lifetime (since May 2002) is 35.75%.
The investor class NESGX is a bit pricey with an ER of 1.89 plus 12b-1 of .25 but its institutional class with ER of 1.22 is available at Schwab with a minimum of $2,500/$1,000 (IRA) and the usual TF.

Thanks, @msf. I tried (copy-paste) the link from your post in both firefox and Microsoft edge. In firefox, it led me to the previous process of Yodlee or print and snail mail. In Edge, it took me through a process similar to what you had posted, eventually getting to the Review and e-Sign tab. In the Review and e-Sign tab it does not have any space for e-signing and dating the application but has a Submit button. I clicked the submit button, another popup opened asking me to accept electronic communication for new account opening. Because I did not ask for a new account, I did not accept and so it said the transfer request can not be completed. I logged out, closed the browser. Reopened Edge and started the process again and this time I accepted the electronic communication for new account opening, even though that is not what I was doing. That took me to the next page which is Print and Mail the application asking me to print the pre-filled form and snail mail.
So, bottom line is, a third process with all the promise and the same Vanguard result.
Enough with asset transfers to Vanguard. I am sorry we wasted so much of everybody time on the weekend trying to make Vanguard work for us.
The current CEO of Vanguard was hired in 2002 when he was a 30 yr old as Chief Information Officer to bring Vanguard into the electronic age. He spent in that role for four years and was rewarded for his work eventually leading to his current role which he has held for the past three years.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mortimerjbuckley/

My TDA accounts are grandfathered for a commission rate of just $15 to purchase non-NTF mutual funds such as Dodge and Cox or Vanguard. I'm waiting to see if Schwab honors that rate. (I suspect that I would lose that benefit if I transferred my TDA accounts to Schwab before the integration.)

May be call Schwab and ask the question. If they agree to honor, then transfer now to lock in; otherwise, enjoy the benefit for another 2 years. They may honor now not to lose you to a competitor who may offer large incentives to get your accounts.

Most of Vanguard's index funds offer ETF class shares, so one can avoid using the Vanguard platform to invest in those funds. However, none of Vanguard's allocation index funds (target date, target risk, or "traditional balanced") or tax managed index funds have ETF class shares.
Oddly, neither does VFTAX even though Vanguard has three ETF-only ESG funds.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/esg/
I agree with you about the last three firms you mentioned. I find Vanguard serviceable, the others not so much.
E*Trade - ran my employer's stock purchase plan. Refused to let us sell shares of a new company created in a spinoff. Forced us to open a new retail E*Trade account or to pay E*Trade to get the shares out. I didn't appreciate being held captive.
Merrill Edge - here's the thread I started a couple of years ago; 'nuff said.
TIAA - impossible to navigate, reducing offerings. They used to offer a simple, vanilla brokerage IRA. No longer. Now all they offer is an IRA annuity with a brokerage window. Since it's an annuity you can't just have another brokerage pull your assets (not even cash). And to open this oddball IRA you have to be "eligible".
https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/eligibility_flyer_external.pdf

A few years ago, I tried to transfer a fund from Fidelity IRA to Vanguard IRA and Vanguard required that I obtain a medallion signature on the Vanguard paper work. I was not going to jump through the hoops and did not transfer - the Vanguard customer service told me if I transfer cash, then medallion signature would not be required - did not make any sense to me but I was not going to be out of the market to accommodate Vanguard. This time I am trying to transfer from taxable to taxable. Selling else where and transferring cash to rebuy at Vanguard is not a viable option. May be I will wait for Vanguard to become a for profit company or will consolidate assets from Vanguard to a different brokerage which Vanguard allows very easily.

According to the Oct 21, 2021 issue of "Investment News," Schwab hopes to move the individual T.D. Ameritrade accounts into Schwab by "the second half of 2023." That's still around two years away!
I had expected it would be faster.

Following up on BenWP -
I drove to West Virginia several years ago just for pleasure. Stayed about a week. What gorgeous mountain vistas!. Very nice / friendly people - but a lot of poverty. Like any scenic region, there’s also a few secluded areas of opulence.
Yes - Manchin is a bit of a political paradox. Tough state to be a Dem. (I suppose we could try and analyze / understand the tendency of some groups to vote against their own self-interest.)
Here’s some demographics.

@LewisBraham and @rono: in the case of Manchin, it may not be party affiliation but the state he represents. A close friend, native of SE MI, moved a few years ago to WVA because his spouse got a new job. He says it’s an entirely different world there, even though the driving distance amounts to 6 hours. I have no reason to doubt him based on the anecdotes he has supplied.

15% on all forms for income (wages, cap gains, rents, interest, etc.) with zero deductions. None. Give every person (including corporations) a $25,000 personal exemption. This would mean a family of four wouldn't start paying taxes until they hit $100,000. Very easy - just pay at the window.
rono

Nice. I would add a deduction (childcare credit for working parents) or stay at home credit for parents with kids under 5 years of age. If you choose to stay home, a credit. SS and Medicare deductions worked into that credit to recognize that staying at home raising kids is a job. Stay at home requirement - both the child and the parent participant in Pre-K /Adult Training offered in the same facility.
Corporations and small businesses offer a paid / government supported entry level work program for graduating parents. This offers offers full-time pay of $50K / year.
Which leads me to the question of how do we get a handle the welfare side of government programs? Can this be simplified as well?

You’d have made less than a half-percent annually had you bought the fund when it opened 21 years ago.

That is really sad. After 2% inflation, the investors are behind every year.

Why not BGHIX? I've lived with this fund also HIXr years (including prior to the recent BrandwineGlobal affiliation), and its fantastic.

This 21 year old fund’s a former board favorite. John Hussman’s writings were often displayed and discussed. Real looser of a fund however. You’d have made less than a half-percent annually had you bought the fund when it opened 21 years ago.
I owned the fund for a year or so and sold it probably 15 years ago. But can’t stop from tracking it and hoping this seemingly gifted financial analyst and writer could somehow turn his floundering fund around. HSGFX got off to a good start this year and everything looked promising. But the fund’s been in a nose-dive now for several weeks. Today’s negative 0.49% return puts the fund into negative territory YTD.
I can sympathize with him if he thinks the markets are overvalued and has pulled back./ gotten defensive. I happen to agree with that prognosis. But, managing a fund like this is “big league” stuff. More is expected.
HSGFX
ER 1.23%
Early Redemption Fee 1.50%
Lipper Link
Chart

davidr,
My interpretation of Joe's question: the 1 Million doesn't grow with inflation, but the annual spends increase each year.
An example. For convenience, say the annual inflation rate is 2%
So in Year 1, Joe's spending is 40,000;
in Year 2, Joe's spending is (1.02)*40,000 = 40,800;
in Year 3, Joe's spending is (1.02)*40,800 = (1.02^2)*40,000 =41,616;
in Year 4, Joe's spending is (1.02)*41,616 = (1.02^3)*40,000 =42,448.32;
etc, etc
in Year 25, Joe's spending is (1.02^24)*40,000 =64,337.49.
(For those of you unfamiliar with the jargon,
2*3 means 2 times 3, and
2^3 means 2 raised to the 3rd power.)
The question then becomes: what's the sum of all the annual spends?
That is, 40,000 +(1.02)*40,000+(1.02^2)*40,000+
(1.02^3)*40,000 + ...+(1.02^24)*40,000.
If we factor out the 40,000, then this total spending is
40,000 (1 +1.02+1.02^2+1.02^3+1.02^4+ ... + 1.02^24).
You could get out a calculator to add the 25 terms in the parentheses, but ...
wait for it
wait for it
there's a formula!
1 +1.02+1.02^2+1.02^3+1.02^4+ ... + 1.02^24 =(1.02^25 -1)/.02
A calculator can handle the 25th power term, to get
(.64061)/.02 = 32.031,
so the total amount Joe needs to live on for 25 years is
40,000*32.031 = $1,281,212.
So he needs to find 281,212 more dollars to stash away under his mattress.
The final answers:
for inflation rate 2%, the total initial amount needed is $1,281,212;
for inflation rate 2.5%, the total initial amount needed is $1,366,311;
for inflation rate 3%, the total initial amount needed is $1,458,371;
for inflation rate 6%, the total initial amount needed is $2,194,581.
David