20 Year Returns Because returns compound, what you're computing is a multiplicative, or "geometric" average, rather than an additive, or "arithmetic" average. But the concepts are the same, so I'll try to address your question using the more familiar arithmetic average.
If I start with $100, and just add amounts every year (say, by savings, not by earnings), after 5 years I can ask: on average how much did I add per year?
Say I add $20, $50, $30, $40, $35. You can compute the average increment by adding them all up (to $175) and dividing by 5. (It's $35).
If I already know the ending amount of $275 (which is $100 + $20 + $50 + $30 + $40 + $35), then I know that all the yearly additions added up to (end value - start value) = $275 - $100 = $175. I divide by the number of years (5).
The point is that if you have the start and end values, you know what the difference is and you don't have to use all the individual values to compute their sum. If you don't have the end value, then it's easier to add up year by year. Either way, you divide by the number of years.
Same idea with annualized returns, except we're dealing with multiplication instead of addition.
For instance, if my $100 earns 10% one year and 20% the next, then after 1 year I've got $110 (10% more than $100), and after two years, I've got $132 (20% more than $110). That's 32% more than I started with. I don't get this by adding 10% and 20%, but by multiplying
(1 + 10%) x (1 + 20%) = (1 + 32%).
As with the arithmetic average, if you've already got the end value, you can get the result of all the multiplications by dividing the end value by the start value. But if you don't have the end value, you multiply (1 + annual return pct) for each year, take the nth root (where N is the number of years), and subtract 1.
In my shortened example above, I multiplied the two years (10% and 20%), and got 132% (before subtracting 1). The 2nd (square) root of 132% is 1.1489, so the average annual yield is 0.1489, or 14.89%. A little less than you get by simply "averaging" 10% and 20%.
On the other hand, if I know that I started with $100 and ended with $132, I don't have to know how I got there. I just take 132/100 (i.e. 132%), and calculate as before. The 2nd (square) root is 1.1489, so the annualized yield is 14.89%.
Buffet investing in Japanese Companies https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55234/japanese-stocks-are-well-placed-to-confound-the-skepticsSince I posted the above story 6 months ago, Price’s PRJPX is up about 9.4%. YTD it’s up by 10%, and for one year It’s up 26%. Their Nikkei stock market is still recovering from one of the greatest boom & bust cycles in recorded history. I’m not recommending it as an investment, though I do like multi-nation funds that have maybe 10-25% exposure to Japan.
(Above cited data from Yahoo and Lipper)
The 2018 Accord Hybrid I bought 2
years ago is a superbly designed auto for its price range (mid-20s). Probably the best overall build-quality of anything I’ve owned. The car was assembled in Ohio, but the engine was imported from Japan.
Sony still makes some fine electronics. I have two of its SRX series bluetooth speakers. It’s amazing what the SRX-XB41 can do. (Completely waterproof too, in case I decide to take it swimming.)
+1
@MikeM -
Barron’s is still a fine read. Nice broad education in financial & investment thinking. When you get down to it, the ability to weigh data and compare subjective opinions and than fashion your own investing approach is much more valuable and longer lasting than the latest “hot tip” on what to buy. I hear Barron’s doesn’t have the charts / data it once did. That’s probably true. Who needs it with everything on the internet now?
Saving for Retirement Is Never Easy. The Covid Pandemic Has Made It Even Harder.
20 Year Returns What is the best source for finding 20 year returns for mutual funds? 15 years is the longest term the main Morningstar site provides. The only place I have found the 20 year returns is on the wells fargo site. The information is provided by and branded as Morningstar. It's calculated once a month at the conclusion of the month and takes a few days to appear. Any alternatives?
A lot of red today That guy isn't even speaking English. Inflation is inflation. In my grammar school daze, a big station wagon cost about $3,000.00. Makes me giggle, the terminology: "shelter inflation." I guess they mean rent or mortgage. And hasn't Japan been going through deflation for many years? Mom used to send me to the corner supermarket. There aren't ANY more of THOSE--- to get hamburger at $0.39 cents per pound. My wife just got back from Costco. Burger was $3.99/pound. Insurance. Gas. Bottled water. (Who'd have DREAMED of water in a bottle as an everyday commodity, back then? When the water from the tap was trustworthy and tasty? And even if I was locked out of the house, I could still get it.) Tires, vegetables, milk for the kid. Spaghetti, sauce. Coffee, tea. Name me anything that's not been outrageously inflated, since back when soldiers smoked cigarettes for FREE from the USO. Seems to me, I noticed the inflation (in my own lifetime) started in earnest during th LBJ years. He had to pay for the Vietnam debacle--- in which a lot of real patriots of character died in uniform. Not to mention the civilians.
A lot of red today @hankYou make it easy to deploy what you object to. Please, name one person on the face of the Earth, anyone, who thinks this:
>> People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that.
A lot of red today Reply to: “No one but no one thinks there has been no inflation over those spans.”
@davidrmoran, All that proves is that you and I happen to know different people.(Duh).
I’ve cautioned you before about making universal blanket assertions and attempting to communicate using such
linguistic absolutes .
More to the point, I happen to know some folks that don’t bother to check or challenge their faulty belief by running the multi-decade comparison suggested in my post. These are people, often poorly educated, who live very much “for the day” and likely have problems with credit, delinquency, low standard of living, etc. Most don’t buy new cars. If I wanted to fall into your linguistic trap I might have said “Everybody believes ... ”. But I didn’t. I imagine these people base their misconception on overheard news blurbs about the Federal Reserve fighting to raise inflation to 2% and draw unwarranted inferences from that. And they recall a couple recent
years when there was no COLA added to their Social Security check.
A couple excerpts from another work I found for you to read:
The problem: “Universal Quantifiers” is the label for words such as: always, never, all, every, everybody, (nobody) and every time. They are linguistic generalizations that restrict or omit possibilities to see, hear, and feel a different experience. They create boundary conditions around segments of life, based upon past experiences, and they limit our ability to think outside the barn now and in the future. In neuro-linguistic programming terms, they impoverish our model of the world.”
The solution:
Consciously replace the word.
Always – often
Never – rarely
Every time – frequently
Everybody – a lot of people
All – many https://www.thinkinoutsidethebarn.com/e-zine-archives/never-ever-syndrome/Please work on it as it’s a waste of time having to set you straight every time you jump on one of my posts with meaningless comments like that.
A lot of red today
People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that.
No one but no one thinks there has been no inflation over those spans. I mean, duh. It is more recently where there is reasonable disagreement.
A lot of red today Personally, equities have been good to me for the past 50 years, with a few scary times in between. So, I’m not about to “jump ship”, although at nearly 74, I’m widely diversified with perhaps 30-40% in equities. Some bonds. Some commodities. Some cash. Some hedge-type funds. People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that. Sure, TVs and computers have fallen in price. You can’t eat them, drive them or sleep inside of on
You are doing fine going forward with your balanced allocation. Lots of uncertainty and volatility now. Being rational is not easy. got luck out when I rebalanced several week ago. Now I can sit back and watch the slow train wreck.
A lot of red today Nice to read stuff not connected to politics. :) Ritholtz is good - but the link didn’t provide much in the way of his opinions.
Lot of smart people been warning us for years about the excesses. Alas! What to do? Possibly cash at 0% is the “better” option at this time. What do I know? Stan Druckenmiller is another smart one who’s worried about valuations. And a reading of Mutual Fund Observer‘s back issues for several years brings up cautionary flags from David and others. I’m weird. I like Fleckenstein and subscribe to his daily rants. He’s about as bearish on equities as it gets. I don’t recommend him to most because I think he’d scare the **** out of you and have you run to cash - or gold which he likes.
Personally, equities have been good to me for the past 50 years, with a few scary times in between. So, I’m not about to “jump ship”, although at nearly 74, I’m widely diversified with perhaps 30-40% in equities. Some bonds. Some commodities. Some cash. Some hedge-type funds. People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that. Sure, TVs and computers have fallen in price. You can’t eat them, drive them or sleep inside of one.