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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    If you play with this chart:.......FLPSX,IJH,NAESX.....
    FLPSX performed well PRIOR to 2005 but after that, for the last 15 years, it has been an index hugger.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    >> For several years, FLPSX was a small cap fund ... 1997
    With a few exceptions, iirc, owning the occasional low-priced LC stock --- e.g., I believe I recall its owning B, Barnes Group, and Nav, Navistar, and then later Vz and T when the criterion moved above $25. (Not positive; those were just stocks I followed / owned individually at the same time as FLPSX.)
    I suppose the first two might not have qualified at LC, but no one thought of them as SC.
    Tillinghast's abiding interest in overseas companies has been a drag for some time now.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    I've had a hard time finding a similar fund. The closest I could come was PGVFX. The two funds tracked well 2015-2020, but diverged substantially in March.
    Tillinghast had one of the shortest hiatuses on record (4 months).
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fidelity-tillinghast/star-fidelity-manager-tillinghast-to-take-leave-idUSTRE76C6C520110713
    Prospectus, September 29, 2011:
    "Effective September 6, 2011 the following have been named interim portfolio managers of the fund while the fund's portfolio manager, Joel Tillinghast is on a leave of absence from the firm. Mr. Tillinghast is expected to return in the first quarter of 2012."
    Same prospectus, As Revised January 9, 2012
    No mention of leave of absence, just this sentence: "Joel Tillinghast is lead portfolio manager of the fund, which he has managed since December 1989." That was followed by a list of co-managers who had managed the fund "since September 2011."
    For several years, FLPSX was a small cap fund, e.g. from 1997: "Exceptional stock selection has been a hallmark of Fidelity Low-Priced Stock, the biggest fund not only among this select threesome [FLPSX, Royce Low Priced, and Robertson Stephens Global Low Priced] but also among all funds that buy small stocks."
    https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/30/business/mutual-funds-is-there-a-pound-of-wisdom-in-a-pennywise-strategy.html
    It did have an auspicious start, albeit as a low-load (3%) fund. (See 1994 prospectus). "The fund, which celebrates its first birthday this week [Dec 23, 1990], was down 3.1 percent at the end of November. That compared to an 8.9 percent drop for the 77 small-company stock funds tracked by Morningstar Inc."
    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-1990-12-23-9003040100-story.html
    The 1997 NYTimes article cited above adds that "several weeks ago it raised the price it is willing to pay to $35 for a share from $25. When the fund began in 1989, its price limit was $15 a share."
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    Tillinghast took some time off several years ago and the Liw Priced fund was ran by a large team. It was a great fund when the asset was under $500M back in the early 90's. I believe there are better candidates out there with small asset and equally skillful manager.
  • This 50-year-old Vanguard mutual fund is holding its own against younger rivals
    Check the duration on the bond sleeve and see if you feel comfortable with that going forward.
    If the Fed is successful in raising the inflation rate will interest rates rise as well?
    I don't plan to sell out. But I do take profits out every few year to put elsewhere.
    Let me know when you see inflation. They are talking about it for several years while high tech is taking over and it will increase and this time it will take away higher paying jobs. The people who keep their salaries upgraded are the STEM ones.
    Price competition decrease margins too. All I need is to google something I want to buy and find the best price online which means more actual stores will lose.
  • The value-growth spread Explained - Value is short tech
    For sure that is something to watch out for. Reduced growth funds several weeks ago so to lessen FAANG stocks exposure.
    Going forward trade war will likely get uglier as China flexes their influence. Unfortunately that is the downside of globalization.
    Buffett turned 90 years old. It seems his successors are making more of key changes. Still he holds lots of financial.
  • International Currency Hedging
    Majority of my foreign exposure to equities and bonds are unhedged against USD. My timing was bad in 2007 when my local currency EM Pimco bond tanked badly and took over 3 years to recovered. Think it was my mistake of jumping in all at once instead building up the position over 6-12 months.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    Janus Henderson Mid Cap Value JNVSX
    Did you mean Janus (JNMCX) or Jensen (JNVSX), or both?
    Toward the end of their fund management tenure with JNMCX, the Perkins seemed to have lost their mojo. In the past few (about 5) years the change in management has brought some improvement. Still, nothing to get excited about. FWIW the cheaper Janus D shares recently reopened.
    @Observant1 identified another fund recently reopened, TRMCX. That's a better fund. TRP has one of the best records in handling changes in management, transitioning slowly and not surprising investors.
    I agree with the others about NMVAX's high turnover rate. The prospectus even declares: "The Fund’s annual portfolio turnover rate will generally be 100% or greater." So the high turnover last year isn't an exception. While M* says that the fund's portfolio has been blend for the past three years, it still classifies the fund as value. OTOH, Lipper classifies it as midcap core (blend). The high turnover might suggest that the fund will follow market trends, drifting more quickly to value if there is rotation. Or the fund might simply be a value poseur.
    Another factor you might want to consider if you're thinking about market rotation is the possibility that foreign equities could start outperforming domestic ones. Small and midcap funds tend not to invest as much abroad. Exceptions include TRMCX (15%, of which 1/5 is EM), and NMVAX (20% but no EM). FLPSX (41%, but only about 1/15 EM) is in a class by itself here, holding more foreign stocks than some global funds including Fidelity's own Worldwide FWWFX (37%, 1/8 EM) (mentioned for reference purposes only).
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    I have no idea if there will be a rotation to value or mid-caps in the near-future. Regarding turnover, I generally avoid equity funds with turnover greater than 40%.
    The ARTQX management team outperformed the mid-cap value category for a number of years based on total return/risk-adjusted return. However, poor stock selection and the retirement of one of the senior managers seems to have taken a toll. ARTQX has lagged its category every calendar year from 2014 - 2019 (except 2016).
    TRMCX is a good fund. Although there is some key-person risk, T. Rowe Price is well-resourced and generally handles manager transitions well. Purchase of this fund may be restricted to customers who trade directly with T. Rowe Price.
    If you're not opposed to indexing, VMVAX may also be worthy of consideration.
  • Does 40% bond allocation make sense in today's portfolio
    Mine: Cash 6%
    US stocks 27
    Foreign: 8%
    Bonds: 57%
    Other: 2%
    I'm happy. 66 years old last month. The plan is to take a chunk from the IRA which is not insignificant, each January, but that presumes a positive Market, so that the portfolio rises and makes-up that amount through the rest of the year. Otherwise, things are staying untouched. Taxable stuff is in a bond fund, but it's just 8% of total. Distributions are still being re-invested. Wife still works.
  • 20 Year Returns
    Because returns compound, what you're computing is a multiplicative, or "geometric" average, rather than an additive, or "arithmetic" average. But the concepts are the same, so I'll try to address your question using the more familiar arithmetic average.
    If I start with $100, and just add amounts every year (say, by savings, not by earnings), after 5 years I can ask: on average how much did I add per year?
    Say I add $20, $50, $30, $40, $35. You can compute the average increment by adding them all up (to $175) and dividing by 5. (It's $35).
    If I already know the ending amount of $275 (which is $100 + $20 + $50 + $30 + $40 + $35), then I know that all the yearly additions added up to (end value - start value) = $275 - $100 = $175. I divide by the number of years (5).
    The point is that if you have the start and end values, you know what the difference is and you don't have to use all the individual values to compute their sum. If you don't have the end value, then it's easier to add up year by year. Either way, you divide by the number of years.
    Same idea with annualized returns, except we're dealing with multiplication instead of addition.
    For instance, if my $100 earns 10% one year and 20% the next, then after 1 year I've got $110 (10% more than $100), and after two years, I've got $132 (20% more than $110). That's 32% more than I started with. I don't get this by adding 10% and 20%, but by multiplying
    (1 + 10%) x (1 + 20%) = (1 + 32%).
    As with the arithmetic average, if you've already got the end value, you can get the result of all the multiplications by dividing the end value by the start value. But if you don't have the end value, you multiply (1 + annual return pct) for each year, take the nth root (where N is the number of years), and subtract 1.
    In my shortened example above, I multiplied the two years (10% and 20%), and got 132% (before subtracting 1). The 2nd (square) root of 132% is 1.1489, so the average annual yield is 0.1489, or 14.89%. A little less than you get by simply "averaging" 10% and 20%.
    On the other hand, if I know that I started with $100 and ended with $132, I don't have to know how I got there. I just take 132/100 (i.e. 132%), and calculate as before. The 2nd (square) root is 1.1489, so the annualized yield is 14.89%.
  • Buffet investing in Japanese Companies
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55234/japanese-stocks-are-well-placed-to-confound-the-skeptics
    Since I posted the above story 6 months ago, Price’s PRJPX is up about 9.4%. YTD it’s up by 10%, and for one year It’s up 26%. Their Nikkei stock market is still recovering from one of the greatest boom & bust cycles in recorded history. I’m not recommending it as an investment, though I do like multi-nation funds that have maybe 10-25% exposure to Japan.
    (Above cited data from Yahoo and Lipper)
    The 2018 Accord Hybrid I bought 2 years ago is a superbly designed auto for its price range (mid-20s). Probably the best overall build-quality of anything I’ve owned. The car was assembled in Ohio, but the engine was imported from Japan.
    Sony still makes some fine electronics. I have two of its SRX series bluetooth speakers. It’s amazing what the SRX-XB41 can do. (Completely waterproof too, in case I decide to take it swimming.)
    +1 @MikeM - Barron’s is still a fine read. Nice broad education in financial & investment thinking. When you get down to it, the ability to weigh data and compare subjective opinions and than fashion your own investing approach is much more valuable and longer lasting than the latest “hot tip” on what to buy. I hear Barron’s doesn’t have the charts / data it once did. That’s probably true. Who needs it with everything on the internet now?
  • Saving for Retirement Is Never Easy. The Covid Pandemic Has Made It Even Harder.
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=IR5WX4rLGbKvtgWqkLvICQ&q=Saving+for+Retirement+Is+Never+Easy.+The+Covid+Pandemic+Has+Made+It+Even+Harder.&oq=Saving+for+Retirement+Is+Never+Easy.+The+Covid+Pandemic+Has+Made+It+Even+Harder.&gs_lcp=ChFtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1ocBADUKsYWKsYYPIiaABwAHgAgAHZAYgB2QGSAQMyLTGYAQCgAQKgAQGwAQA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp
    Saving for Retirement Is Never Easy. The Covid Pandemic Has Made It Even Harder.
    Ed Daizovi, a 57-year-old career diplomat, entered the retirement homestretch earlier this year: He had just moved back from Africa and was setting up a new home in Miami where he planned to retire next year with his wife of 29 years, after investing diligently to fund a comfortable retirement.
    But the coronavirus pandemic—and the volatility stirred first by the market’s crash and quick recovery, and now by uncertainty heading into the election—is making Daizovi wary about his retirement timeline
    Many folks indeed are suffering. We hope c19 conditions improve in the near future and more peoplemay get their old jobs back/lives back in orders. Heard so many personal stories of misdeeds, financial turmoils/ family restrains and conflicts previously.
  • 20 Year Returns
    What is the best source for finding 20 year returns for mutual funds? 15 years is the longest term the main Morningstar site provides. The only place I have found the 20 year returns is on the wells fargo site. The information is provided by and branded as Morningstar. It's calculated once a month at the conclusion of the month and takes a few days to appear. Any alternatives?
  • A lot of red today
    That guy isn't even speaking English. Inflation is inflation. In my grammar school daze, a big station wagon cost about $3,000.00. Makes me giggle, the terminology: "shelter inflation." I guess they mean rent or mortgage. And hasn't Japan been going through deflation for many years? Mom used to send me to the corner supermarket. There aren't ANY more of THOSE--- to get hamburger at $0.39 cents per pound. My wife just got back from Costco. Burger was $3.99/pound. Insurance. Gas. Bottled water. (Who'd have DREAMED of water in a bottle as an everyday commodity, back then? When the water from the tap was trustworthy and tasty? And even if I was locked out of the house, I could still get it.) Tires, vegetables, milk for the kid. Spaghetti, sauce. Coffee, tea. Name me anything that's not been outrageously inflated, since back when soldiers smoked cigarettes for FREE from the USO. Seems to me, I noticed the inflation (in my own lifetime) started in earnest during th LBJ years. He had to pay for the Vietnam debacle--- in which a lot of real patriots of character died in uniform. Not to mention the civilians.
  • A lot of red today
    @hank
    You make it easy to deploy what you object to. Please, name one person on the face of the Earth, anyone, who thinks this:
    >> People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that.
  • A lot of red today
    Reply to: “No one but no one thinks there has been no inflation over those spans.”
    @davidrmoran, All that proves is that you and I happen to know different people.(Duh).
    I’ve cautioned you before about making universal blanket assertions and attempting to communicate using such linguistic absolutes .
    More to the point, I happen to know some folks that don’t bother to check or challenge their faulty belief by running the multi-decade comparison suggested in my post. These are people, often poorly educated, who live very much “for the day” and likely have problems with credit, delinquency, low standard of living, etc. Most don’t buy new cars. If I wanted to fall into your linguistic trap I might have said “Everybody believes ... ”. But I didn’t. I imagine these people base their misconception on overheard news blurbs about the Federal Reserve fighting to raise inflation to 2% and draw unwarranted inferences from that. And they recall a couple recent years when there was no COLA added to their Social Security check.
    A couple excerpts from another work I found for you to read:
    The problem: “Universal Quantifiers” is the label for words such as: always, never, all, every, everybody, (nobody) and every time. They are linguistic generalizations that restrict or omit possibilities to see, hear, and feel a different experience. They create boundary conditions around segments of life, based upon past experiences, and they limit our ability to think outside the barn now and in the future. In neuro-linguistic programming terms, they impoverish our model of the world.”
    The solution: Consciously replace the word.
    Always – often
    Never – rarely
    Every time – frequently
    Everybody – a lot of people
    All – many

    https://www.thinkinoutsidethebarn.com/e-zine-archives/never-ever-syndrome/
    Please work on it as it’s a waste of time having to set you straight every time you jump on one of my posts with meaningless comments like that.
  • A lot of red today

    People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that.
    No one but no one thinks there has been no inflation over those spans. I mean, duh. It is more recently where there is reasonable disagreement.
  • A lot of red today
    Personally, equities have been good to me for the past 50 years, with a few scary times in between. So, I’m not about to “jump ship”, although at nearly 74, I’m widely diversified with perhaps 30-40% in equities. Some bonds. Some commodities. Some cash. Some hedge-type funds. People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that. Sure, TVs and computers have fallen in price. You can’t eat them, drive them or sleep inside of on
    You are doing fine going forward with your balanced allocation. Lots of uncertainty and volatility now. Being rational is not easy. got luck out when I rebalanced several week ago. Now I can sit back and watch the slow train wreck.
  • A lot of red today
    Nice to read stuff not connected to politics. :) Ritholtz is good - but the link didn’t provide much in the way of his opinions.
    Lot of smart people been warning us for years about the excesses. Alas! What to do? Possibly cash at 0% is the “better” option at this time. What do I know? Stan Druckenmiller is another smart one who’s worried about valuations. And a reading of Mutual Fund Observer‘s back issues for several years brings up cautionary flags from David and others. I’m weird. I like Fleckenstein and subscribe to his daily rants. He’s about as bearish on equities as it gets. I don’t recommend him to most because I think he’d scare the **** out of you and have you run to cash - or gold which he likes.
    Personally, equities have been good to me for the past 50 years, with a few scary times in between. So, I’m not about to “jump ship”, although at nearly 74, I’m widely diversified with perhaps 30-40% in equities. Some bonds. Some commodities. Some cash. Some hedge-type funds. People don’t think there’s inflation. Look at what you paid for a house or a new addition to your home or a new car 10, 20, 30 years ago and tell me that. Sure, TVs and computers have fallen in price. You can’t eat them, drive them or sleep inside of one.