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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dividend Payers
    "If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
    "Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors", see above. He's also stated on numerous occasions how he loves collecting dividends from his holdings, just doesn't believe in paying any.
    "And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
    It says a lot." Yes, it says that not everyone thinks and/or invests like you say you do. Get over it.
    Your usual off mark.
    It's not about me it's about the data.
    I didn't invent it, the guys I mentioned did it for a good reason.
    This is not the off topic thread.
    This is about investing. If you can educate US, do it with research.
    Please get control of your anger.
  • HR-1 and the $1 Trillion Medicaid related cuts, 5 large companies affected today, JULY 2
    I will presume that companies in the Medicaid marketplace have been 'running the numbers' regarding impacts from HR-1 and funding cuts included in the legislation.
    My search is somewhat related to Michigan, but would apply to other states.
    NOTE: HR 1, also known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," has significant provisions related to Medicaid dollar cuts. The Senate recently passed an amended version of HR 1 that, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), would cut gross federal Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) spending by $1.02 trillion over the next ten years. This represents cuts that are even larger than those proposed in the House-passed version of the bill.
    --- July 2, closing; Medicaid affected companies
    EDIT: RGC in the list is an outlier to the domestic list. It is a Chinese herbal company being gamed by the day traders.
    Apologies. I should have checked the unfamiliar name.
    CNC Centene Corp, -40.4%
    RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd, -29.04%
    MOH Molina Healthcare Inc, -21.96%
    OSCR Oscar Health Inc, -18.69%
    ELV Elevance Health Inc, -11.50%

    --- Several major insurance companies offer Medicaid plans, with five large, publicly traded companies dominating the market. These include Centene, Elevance (formerly Anthem), UnitedHealth Group, Molina, and CVS Health. In Michigan, Priority Health is a prominent provider of Medicaid plans, including MIChild, Healthy Michigan Plan, and Children's Special Health Care Services.
    Here's a more detailed look:
    Dominant Players:
    Centene, Elevance, UnitedHealth, Molina, and CVS Health manage a significant portion of Medicaid enrollees nationally. These companies operate Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs) in many states.
    Michigan Medicaid:
    Priority Health is a major player in Michigan, offering Medicaid, MIChild, Healthy Michigan Plan, and Children's Special Health Care Services.
    Other Michigan Plans:
    Other options in Michigan include Aetna Better Health, UPMC for You, and UnitedHealthcare Community Plan.
    NCQA Ratings:
    The National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA) provides ratings for Medicaid health plans. Some Michigan plans with high ratings include Upper Peninsula Health Plan, Meridian Health Plan of Michigan, Priority Health, and Blue Cross Complete of Michigan.
    Managed Care:
    Many states use managed care to deliver Medicaid benefits, with comprehensive risk-based managed care being a common approach, according to Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC).
  • TCAF
    TCAF vs SPY will be a fascinating battle to watch play out over time. Need more time = 5 years.
    TCAF 15.74% avg annual return vs 16.56% SPY from inception 6/14/2023 thru March 31.
    TCAF higher ER which compounds over time. Other metrics in the same ballpark thus far.
  • Dividend Payers
    "If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
    "Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors", see above. He's also stated on numerous occasions how he loves collecting dividends from his holdings, just doesn't believe in paying any.
    "And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
    It says a lot." Yes, it says that not everyone thinks and/or invests like you say you do. Get over it.
  • Dividend Payers
    This debate of divvies vs the SP500 is decades old.
    Until the 1970s, many profitable companies paid dividends—it was the standard.
    But then came the tech revolution. It started in the '70s, gained momentum in the '80s, and exploded in the decades that followed.
    That shift proved something important: dividends are an outdated concept.
    Tech companies showed that instead of paying out cash, they could reinvest in R&D, acquire smaller companies, and execute massive stock buybacks—delivering far more value through total return.
    Today, total return is the only game in town.
    Yes, some dividend-paying companies still perform well, but dividend stocks with low performance are useless—you’re just collecting crumbs while losing real value.
    I always wonder:
    If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index?
    Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors, not a handpicked list of dividend payers?
    Why do top managers worldwide hold a diversified mix, not just dividend stocks?
    And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
    It says a lot.
  • Deferred Income Contract - Bonilla Day
    In 2000, Bobby Bonilla (NY Mets/MLB) put in $5.9 million in a deferred-income contract with the following terms:
    Lump-sum $5.9 million.
    Defer/hold for 10 years at 8%. The balance in 2010, $13.7 million.
    Uniform payout over 25 years (2011-35) at 8% assumed rate. Annual payout $1.2 million/yr on July 1 (Bonilla Day).
    TIAA Video (4:49) https://players.brightcove.net/958462654001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6374946029112
  • Dividend Payers
    "One of the original studies on dividends in the early 1960s said people shouldn’t care.
    Maximizing wealth is the point, and dividends are just part of investors’ total return.
    Any cash a company pays out reduces its value by an equal amount."

    "Data from the past 50 years compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the annualized return of dividend payers
    in the S&P 500 was 9.2% compared with only 4.3% for non-payers, and with less choppiness too."

    "Dividend payers would have left you with 10 times as much wealth before taxes.
    Meanwhile, owning an equal amount of every stock in the S&P 500, including payers and non-payers,
    returned just 7.65%."

    May be paywalled.
    https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-skuuhut-dhkydlthlk-r/
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    I don't usually post comments regarding The Week in Charts.
    Since the first half of the year has been "crazy", I'll make an exception today.
    What will the second half of the year bring for investors?
    Fourth worst S&P 500 performance through first 66 trading days (-15.3%) of 2025.
    Followed by tenth biggest 12-week S&P 500 total return (22.0%) from 1989-2025.
    Biggest 12-week $VIX decline (-64.0%) from 1990-2025.
    Frankly, I wasn't expecting this type of market behavior!
    Why is the market pricing in three Fed rate cuts in 2025?
    1) Stocks: all-time highs
    2) Home Prices: all-time highs
    3) Bitcoin: all-time highs
    4) Money Supply: all-time highs
    5) National Debt: all-time highs
    6) CPI: averaging 4% per year since 2020—double the Fed's "target"
    We'll get the non-farm payroll report this week but this isn't the jobs indicator to watch (subject to massive revisions). Better jobs indicator is 4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
    Existing single family home inventory is at the highest level since June 2020.
    New single family homes for sale are at their highest levels since November 2007.
    Sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 500,000.
    Perhaps this is an inflection point which will lead to a lower pace of home price appreciation?
    Of course, affordability is still a major problem.
    Home price inflation has far outpaced wage increases for many years.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    FD1000,
    I didn't realize you were an auto racing enthusiast.
    I'm curious why the Yugo was your platform of choice.
    These cars were slow and often criticized for poor safety and reliability.
    Did you swap the engine and modify the suspension?
    Perhaps an LSx V8 similar to the one referenced in the article below?
    https://www.thedrive.com/news/18974/this-unassuming-yugo-has-an-lsx-v-8
    Never in my life have I owned a Yugo. I owned Japanese Hondas and Toyotas for decades but recently changed to Korean.
    Mona is one of these posters that can't accept my portfolio risk/reward success. It's all water under the bridge. All their grim forecasts turned out to be pretty wrong. Look who's laughing last.
    Thanks for asking. :-)
    ====================
    The chances I will ever buy an American or European vehicle are slim. If the Koreans would not be reliable because I have owned vehicles for 10 years, I would buy only Toyotas.
    Last week I changed my insurance and saved over 20% on (Home+Umbrella+Autos). This time I used a local independent broker with hundreds of 5-star ratings from Google, and he did it in 10 minutes.
    Replacing auto parts has been expensive for many years already.
    Inflation is a great excuse for many companies, including insurance companies, to raise prices even more.
  • Global Investors Have New Reason To Pull Back From U.S. Debt (on hiatus pending a surge of comity)
    Just for the sake of argument/debate, and feel free to disagree, but doesn't a weaker dollar have certain advantages? One of them being that it makes our exports more affordable, thus more desirable? And, as far as domestic transactions, does dollar depreciation really matter? It being a ForEx situation.
    Now on the flip side, it does make our debt less attractive to foreign buyers. But, they were buyers at much lower rates over the past 10 years. And, as we all expect rates to be brought down sooner than later, is it not possibly a good time to buy bonds overall?
    Of course, a much bigger problem is we then see imports being more expensive, at the same time that Trump applies tariffs on nearly everything, adding to the problem. And wouldn't the rate cuts that Trump so desperately wants, make our debt even less attractive? Or is it possible that even with rate cuts on the short end, auction buyers will support continued high rates at the long end, regardless of FED actions? Which would not help our debt servicing situation? But, it would support a healthy yield curve.
    It is so complex, I'd like to hear more of what others think.
  • Schwab to roll out broader overnight trading platform
    @hank, no but people could trade stocks with 5% margin equity then. Pump-&-dump probably comes from that era - buildup excitement to create a rush to buy, then pull the rug to wipeout overleveraged people.
    I see!
    FWIW - the Meb Faber interview with Rob Arnott and Campbell Harvey I linked in the “Where to Invest Now” thread gets into the issue of a massive increase in retail trading in recent years. Not necessarily critical - but they see it as one market mover along with index / passive investing.
    I’ve only recently (5 years) become aware of how easy & inexpensive it is to trade just about anything, as I was mostly with just a few good fund houses before moving to Fido. Fortunes can quickly be made or lost. Puts my $1 nightly wagers on a MLB game to shame.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    It is not that we cannot do it, eventually. But, it will take time to get it all figured out on a much larger scale, and cost much, much more per unit. And while the cars may last 10-15 years, problems are inevitable as we try to do it all on home turf. Automotive service these days can get very pricey. And whatever we produce will, likely be uncompetitive in foreign markets, on price. Less units sold equals higher cost per unit.
    My guess is that Trump loses interest in a year or so, after a few questionable "deals", and calls it a day, basically moving on to other inanity. Some foreign automakers will increase output on U.S. soil. That is not a bad thing, to be fair.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
    Isn’t that awesome ? We prefer import care when we rent they in travel, where they are much move reliable. Can you afford spending $60,000 on a new car and having to replace it every 3 years ?
    The movie “Gung-ho” depicts American auto manufacturing (to a Japanese parent company). These is no QC on part sourcing, assembling, and testing, before the cars are rolling of the floor.
    michael keaton movie car manufacturer
    My first car was a Camry assembled in Kentucky with Japanese components. In was a nice touch to see a check list (in the glove compartment) with 50 items that were signed by individuals who carried they out. In was a very reliable that ran flawlessly for 20 years until our family grew.
  • Fidelity - Link External Bank Account
    micro-deposits have always been used to validate linked accounts
    As I posted elsewhere, it seems that these micro-deposit accounts can appear "spontaneously" years after the link is established. (Automated systems revalidating the link.)
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The whole American Made schtick is funny. Trump leases bandwidth on existing cellular networks and tries to sell cheap re-branded phones for $500 claiming they are American made. It turns out that these low-end phones are 100% Chinese made and they are caught out immediately, thus removing the claims from their website. Now trying to push cheap Chinese phones onto their MAGA base.
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Considering that a 2.5% annual inflation rate (rather average) would add up over 10 years to a cumulative 30%, In context, that is not particularly high. And people have been opting for more expensive, content-laden trucks/SUVs over time, pushing up total ownership costs.
    It is important to note that total cost of ownership should not be confused with purchase price. Car prices, like-for-like, have not gone up 30% in a decade. A 2025 Honda Accord base MSRP is only about $3000 more than a 2015 Accord was. Which is closer to 12% over 10 years. Well below even muted inflation rates.
    I wonder what impact tariffs will have on new car prices over time? I guess we will have to come back to that in a year or two.
  • Social Security Report
    Last week's annual Social Security report still projects that the retirement trust fund will be depleted in 2033.
    Across the board benefit cuts of approximately 23% will be required unless action is taken.
    "That leaves us hurtling toward the aforementioned 23% benefit cuts in just eight years
    an outcome that is both unacceptable and entirely avoidable."
    "There are just two ways to avoid that:
    1. When the solvency cliff is reached, Congress can inject general revenue into Social Security on an emergency basis to maintain benefits. Social Security would be partially financed through debt for the first time.
    2. We elect a Congress and president willing to push through a strong, progressive solution that does include tax increases."
    "And both of those things could occur - probably in that order.
    First a crisis, then a progressive solution that gets the program back on track."

    https://retirementrevised.substack.com/p/this-is-not-the-moment-for-social
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    ”We like to pay cash for new Honda and Toyota every 20 years.”
    No quarrel with paying cash. But no desire to drive a car for 20 years either. I love new cars. For years I was piling 20,000 + miles a year on everything with long commutes to work + frequent 5-hour weekend drives to the cabin and back. Vehicles weren’t worth much on a trade after 4 or 5 years. So drove them into the ground. Now, retired, I put less than half the miles on them. Still pretty good trade value after 4 or 5 years.
    The bells and whistles on newer vehicles are wonderful - like the blind spot warning (my first ever). And it even signals if a pedestrian walks behind when backing up. The lane tracing was good on the 2018 Honda, but much more accurate and reliable on the new Toyota. And the self dimming rear view mirror really works. Even the brightest high beams from tailgaters don’t bother me. Power seats. Heated seats & steering wheel. AWD. Put that in your pipe and smoke it when it’s 15 degrees out and pitch dark at 5 PM in January.
    Yes, it’s an extravagance. Not the best use of money. But I can do without other niceties. And if I want to “enjoy” 20 year old technology, I still have the rusting old pickup to drive. But driving it feels like torture compared to the new car. I always check insurance rates with my local agent before buying a new vehicle. Huge difference among different brands and models. The one I have now is quite reasonable.
  • Fidelity - Link External Bank Account
    Several years ago, I linked a bank account to the same Fidelity account.
    Didn't experience any issues—only took a few minutes.
  • Looks like the S&P will hit a record high right out of the gate Friday
    And yet, the 12 month return on SPY is 33rd on my watch list of ~95 US equity funds.
    At the moment, the top five are VVOIX, BSCRX, CGDV, WTV, and AICFX. I have to go back ten years to get it up to 14th.