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How the pandemic will change financial markets foreverQuestion: You’re not predicting outstanding returns from equities either.
Answer: No, but you will have some returns. The traditional 60/40 equity/bond split, which earned 10% a year over the past 40 to 50 years, is now down to 3½%. Even if you’re tilted to equities, you’re still not going to get 10% again. You’re going to get something below 5%, but investors really have to contemplate what their overall asset-allocation parameters will be. In a world of zero yields, Is 80/20 the way to go? Asset classes that are a hybrid between “safe” bonds and equities—such as high-yield bonds and loans, collateralized loan obligations, commercial mortgage-backed securities, convertibles, and equity and mortgage REITs—offer equity-like returns. There’s a case for emerging market debt, because I think yields will have to come down further in emerging markets as well. China is going into [J.P. Morgan’s global bond] index this year, and our longer-term view is that China is going toward zero yield.
What other "I" funds are there? The Queens Road announcement mentions FPA Queens Road Value Fund and its new "I" shares. So far, that's the only other FPA fund I can find with "I" shares.
FPPTX is less than double the size of total AUM ($200 million) larger than QRSVX ($132 million). Keeping the "I" shares will be interesting. Can I exchange money into other FPA "I" funds?
What are the lessons I take from all this? First and most important, the experience illustrates how much wealth you can build even if you don’t invest in just the right stock funds. Buying, holding and watching your money grow is really hard to do—witness the Giftrust lawsuits—but it usually pays off.
But I also learned that every investment strategy goes in and out of style. And so it was with Giftrust’s momentum strategy. What’s more, Giftrust was 20% more volatile than the S&P over the past 15 years. I’ve never known a fund that didn’t ultimately pay the price for such high volatility. In investing, slow and steady really does win the race.
It's documented in this thread(link)+1 Yes-maybe FD1000 should start his own hedge fund and reap the benefits of the 2/20 fee structure.
Correct, my portfolio just passed 35 times our annual expense, and we didn't start taking our SS. The results in the last 3 years were beyond anything I anticipated.davidrmoran: with his reported performance, again and again, he has no need of 2/20
Yes. I believe it well at some point. But the timing is uncertain. Once the genie is out of the bottle there will be hell to pay. You can’t just pull a lever and turn inflation off. I’m cursed with a good memory. Still recall what prices were when I retired in the late 90s. To me, there’s been a lot of inflation over those 20+ years. An early addition I had added to the house back than would easily cost 2 (if not 3) times as much today.Wouldn't you think that all of the money Congress is pumping out (which I'm totally in favor of, BTW) would do the trick?
Generally, it's correct. If you do a bit more analysis you knew that the biggest high tech companies are the most dominated forThe lesson: The stock market doesn’t follow a predictable playbook. Even when it seems to follow a pattern, that pattern is subject to change without notice. Result: Efforts to outsmart the market often turn into exercises in frustration. In my view, though, this is actually a benefit: It means that you don’t need to spend much time, if any, trying to stay ahead of the market.
I have been saying it for years disregard the economy, unemployment, hundreds of articles and "experts" I only look at what’s happening right now by using charts and trend. The price is your best indicator real time, it is what sellers and buyers agreed on and definitely don't invest based on predictions since many are wrong and/or months/years away.Investment legend Peter Lynch said it best: “I think if you spent over 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted over 10 minutes. I mean, it’s not helpful. Everybody wants to predict the future, and I’ve tried to call the 1-800 psychic hotlines. It hasn’t helped. The only thing I would look at is what’s happening right now.”
I'm a trader and why I pay a lot more attention and YTD made more trades than my usual, getting out before the crash, trading stocks/ETF/CEFs in March and back to bond funds in April.These "experts" missed the fact that the Fed is controlling these markets since 2009 and conventional ideas are not working.
Basically, I disregard all "experts" and articles, their job is to sell you something and/or can't predict the future and definitely can't predict what will happen in the next several months ;-)
I'ld set the clock back to Greenspan. But that's just quibbling
Under the circumstances I find I pay less attention to my portfolio than I have in years.
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