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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dodge and Cox

    Anyway, let me add that FXAIX does not outperform either Vanguard SP500 product if you go back to their spring 1988 origin, only more recently.

    Nothing to do with insecurity, trying to be accurate. FXAIX didn't perform better because it didn't have a lower ER all these years. The main difference between me and others is that I supply numbers and not just narrative ;-)
    As you're a numbers sort of person, could you provide some numbers to go along with your narrative? The story saying that FXAIX "didn't have a lower ER all these years"?
    I can find some early years over the lifetime span when VFINX had an ER more than a single basis point below FXAIX's. But there aren't very many years like that, and the VFINX advantage in those years was just 6-9 basis points. In contrast, there are a greater number of later years where FXIAX had the advantage. More sizeable to boot, 8-15 basis points.
    From what little I can find, it seems that FXAIX overall had the lower ER all these years. I look forward to seeing the ER numbers for "all these years".
  • Dodge and Cox
    I don't have a dog in the fight, but I did take a quick look at upside/downside capture ratios for DODFX on M* and they are terrible for 3, 5 and 10 years. T
    It is well know that large cap is the hardest category for a fund manager to "beat" the index. It is very unlikely that it can be done and if it can be the investor picking the "the winner" ahead of those 3, 5 or 10 years is close to impossible. If the case for owning a managed LC fund is a smoother ride or principle conservation and not beating the index return (which it is for me), the up/down statistic is a good one to judge performance.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Your contrib is so valuable, but are you really so insecure you have to impugn ('obsess') anyone who offers even mild corrections or challenges ?
    Anyway, let me add that FXAIX does not outperform either Vanguard SP500 product if you go back to their spring 1988 origin, only more recently.
    Nothing to do with insecurity, trying to be accurate. FXAIX didn't perform better because it didn't have a lower ER all these years. The main difference between me and others is that I supply numbers and not just narrative ;-)
    As of (04/07/2020) FXAIX did better than VFIAX for 3 + 5 years by only 0.02% annually.
  • Bond Stock Gap Is Bullish Signal ... Leuthold Group ... Jim Paulsen
    “This relatively rare condition of intense stock market fear, combined with a generally calm bond market, has proved to be a powerful combination for ensuing stock market returns,” Paulsen wrote in a note Tuesday.
    When the VIX is above the 80th percentile and MOVE is below the 50th percentile, the average annualized S&P 500 price performance has been “remarkable -- at nearly +21% compared to only a little more than +7% the rest of the time,” he said.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/bond-stock-volatility-gap-is-bullish-equity-signal-for-leuthold
    In checking the stock futures, about an hour before the markets open, this morning, it looks like the market is set to build on Monday's gains.
    The futures ... https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Old_Skeet has been a buyer of equites during this downdraft believing that program trading had the markets oversold. It is now nice to see the stock market rebounding since ... as the saying goes ... I caught some falling knives. I'm thinking ... as the 500 Index begins to approach the 2700 to 2800 range things will slow and we will trade off of TTM earnings projected by S&P to be in the $130's. This could take us sideways and in a trading range through summer. Hopefully, though, when fall comes forward earnings will start looking better (possible in the 150's to 160's) and this will set stocks up for a nice fall stock market rally.
    Anyway ... this is how I see it.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am, Old_Skeet
    @mcmarasco ... Matt you asked for a signal. Jim Paulsen is one I have followed for years. I have found that his thinking has been pretty much on spot. Hope this helps you sort things out. Anyway, his comments confirmed my thinking. By the way ... my fixed income sleeve took a beating much more than I thought it would. With bond valuations being down I have now begun to buy in the fixed income area of my portfolio.
  • IRA Conversion to Roth -- start a new Roth?
    Going the other way - if the OP were to open a new account, would he need to wait 5 years before making any “qualified” distributions?
  • Dodge and Cox
    I think you got the mandate wrong there. D&C is not required to beat the S&P 500. They are acting to select value stocks which they deem safer and worthy of their clients money. It's obvious to me that many investors do, judging by the AUM. For many of them it's not just all about who has the biggest pile of money at the end of the day. Not everyone can make trades after the fact.
    See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
    As of 3/31/2020
    15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
    15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
    The SP500 made close to 2% more performance annually. If you invested $100K in each(VFIAX vs DODGX) 15 years ago, you would have now $293.2K in VFIAX but only $223K in DODGX
    But DODGX had almost 20% more SD=volatility.

    This means the SP500 was a better risk/reward fund than DODGX. Unless you disregard the numbers above, how can you explain "safer"?
    BTW, for 10 years (link), the numbers for DODGX get even worse. VFIAX had 2.33%(11.04 vs 8.7%) better annual performance (instead of close to 2% for 15 years) + SD is still worse(higher) for DODGX by over 20%
    To the question of size? "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." The SP500 + US Tot Index (VTI) are so much bigger than DODGX but wait, most of the saved money is thru 401K, employers now must in most cases use indexes, especially for US LC and/or very cheap funds such as Target funds (mainly based on indexes) because it is very difficult to defend fiduciary duty.
    and we already discussed that VFIAX expense ratio is so much cheaper too at 0.04% but VOO=0.03% while DODFX = 0.52%
    Finally, nobody can stop you investing in DODGX, after all, it's your money but the above was a pretty clear case, at least for me :-)
  • Investor who predicted the start of the 2009 bull market: Beware of a double bottom
    Nothing new here but it may be worth repeating...
    Legendary investor Mark Mobius.....was asked Monday if the recent 20% rally off the bottom of the quickest bear market in history signaled an all-clear for investors...Mobius cautioned investors....“I think it's a little early to predict that because given the lockdown that we have seen globally in so many countries around the world, the impact of this lockdown on businesses, it's not going to be seen immediately..... I believe that once the numbers start coming in, people will be somewhat disappointed.”
    ...historical bear markets on a global scale have averaged a larger 30% to 50% drawdown spread out over the span of roughly two years. “The most expensive words in the world are ‘This time is different.’ I don't think this time it's different,” he said. “I think we’re probably maybe going to do a double bottom, jumping down again and pushing up again.”
    “The recovery may take longer than people expect,” he predicted, barring any absence of a New Deal-like work program. “It's going to be a real challenge to get these people back to work.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-who-predicted-the-start-of-the-2009-bull-market-were-not-in-the-clear-yet-104234346.html
  • Dodge and Cox
    When I said best, I meant what the market thinks is best. It doesn't matter what I, you , Buffett or DC managers think. The market thru the price is the best voting machine. It's the final aggregate of all decisions, it's what actual investors pay for that company. The SP500 isn't a value or growth index, it's market-capitalization-weighted index. There is a good reason there are so many articles and research about it and why Buffett recommended it.
    Example:
    GE looked really great 30-40 years ago, where is today?
    AMZN didn't exist 20 years ago and now it's huge
    It's reflected in the SP500, no need to do any research or make a decision.
    Finally, you look at volatility(=Standard Deviation) and if the DODGX managers can't beat the index on performance + volatility it's a double strike, after all, these managers have to justify their paycheck and they failed on both.
  • Dodge and Cox
    I do sometimes wonder when there are contentious posters who rarely comment on this board and then suddenly do to insult folks if some people don't have multiple identities here. I know it's happened before.
    D&C has a number of positive traits analysts like--low fees, low turnover or trading costs, long tenured managers, carefully thought out products without an excess of launches, a lack of celebrity jerk managers from the team approach and consistency of style. All of that said, value has been a terrible place to be since the end of the 2008 crash. D&C are value managers and ones that sometimes take on more risk than they should, investing in particular in financial stocks that can suffer from leverage problems for instance. That is a value managers' bread and butter, but some competing value managers have done better with more of a quality overlay. High quality value--with less leverage and more consistent earnings--is not as cheap as "value classic," but it tends to hold up better in downturns.
    Oh, regarding the S&P 500 fund(s), it most definitely isn't a value fund. The way it works is at the beginning of a bull market it has value characteristics and at the end of one it has growth characteristics as the largest most popular stocks dominate it. What it really is is a momentum fund, and when the momentum is positive as it has been for a long time until now, the most popular stocks get an increasingly large weighting and they are invariably the growthiest names. Comparing it to D&C most definitely is wrong.
    The larger question that seems to get asked repeatedly on this board is is value investing dead? A better question I think is do you think the tech sector darlings that comprise the lion's share of growth indexes will continue to dominate the world forever or will other less popular sectors eventually make a comeback? The academics would have us believe that as the ur-factor bigger than JC in finance, it must eventually come back. But much of what constitutes financial academia is really weak science at best. There is a lot more evidence for anthropogenic climate change, and a significant portion of failed scientists/poor mathematicians and snakeoil salesmen in finance don't believe in that, yet do believe in the value factor or say they do to sell their actively managed higher cost products.
    Can't claim the expense ratio card when VTV beat DODGX
    D&C love financial and it costs them. That tells me they are stubborn instead of looking for better choices.
    No, we don't question value, we question DODGX for short+long term. It's already 15 years that they fall behind the "stupid" VTV.
    How can you make excuses for DODGX when this value fund was worse on the way up and much worse in market meltdowns
    Well, why not make up a unique fund strategy such as the following...our goals are to invest mostly in LC but if we find good value in SC+MC we can use too...and this way nobody can compare our fund to anything ;-)
    The whole idea of the SP500 is the fact that the best companies get to the top and why this simple "stupid" cheap brilliant idea works, so now you say, wait, no more, not fair...really?
    But I always let the numbers talk, after all, numbers are more objective. I looked up MFO database for the last 10 years for LC value. For MFO,Sharpe,Martin rating DODGX ranks at 3 out of 5, there are so many better options. VTV=VIVAX is at the top ranking at 5.
    VTV has better performance than DODGX from 1 to 15 years but also lower SD. VTV is based on "an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index" how can you defend thousands of hours of analysis fall short to an index? :-)
    So, I'm expecting someone to post...well, if you look for 20-25-30 years then...nope, 15 years is long enough and year to date looks awful for DODGX. Sure, you can wait another 10 years and hope for better results.
    BTW, do you expect the financial to get you back to even? :-)
    Lastly, posters who defend DODGX probably own it.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Other than DODIX, I would not own any other D&C funds. I got burned by DODGX during the financial crisis in 2008 and vowed never to return once I got to a point where I felt comfortable selling. IMHO, they are operating on their past reputation pre-2008. I'm not surprised to see DODGX and DODFX doing worse than their respective categories during this current mess. There are plenty of better alternatives, IMHO.
    Well put and what I have been saying for years. I think maybe D&C managers are more comfortable investing in financial/banking stocks which were their biggest category and not realizing this category has been lagging the SP500 while the high tech is where you have all the value+growth.
    @davidrmoran: har, imagine saying of FAIRX, CGMFX, or even FMAGX that they were operating on their pre 08 rep
    I used to own FAIRX,OAKBX,SGENX for about 7-8 years until 2009. In these years when I own a very high % in stocks, it fit my criteria for good risk/reward funds. PV (link) I don't believe in investing based on prior reputation.
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    @MikeM I guess I can rephrase that. I found the info on the fact sheet of the fund to give me what I needed to determine what the bond portfolio looked like. I then looked at the holdings of other funds and landed on the low duration fund.
    I think my issue is the fund down a little more than than the s&p or large value and there seems to be the thought of something wrong with it when Mstar shows it is more volatile.
    @Bitzer I agree with you but I am probably 50/50 or so not 90/10. I have been on the site since FundAlarm and I have gone through the list over the years and many funds are no longer around or sounded promising and just weren't. I guess just like the Spiva reports we are lucky to find any funds that consistently beat the benchmarks or at least do well on a risk adjusted basis. I started using mostly factor ETFs/Funds like DSEEX kind of is because of this.
  • Has anyone considered long/short or market neutral given where we are today?
    Still own Calamos Market Neutral (CVSIX) and Invenomic Investor class (BIVRX). Bought BIVRX about a month before the market fell off a cliff. Waiting for BIVRX's NAV to climb again.
    I have had CVSIX for many years so I am still ahead with it.
  • Bullions shortage
    Howdy folks,
    @johnN, I've dealt with apmex.com for years for bullion although not exclusively. They're painless. To buy higher end coins, the clearing house is collectorscorner.com . These are mostly slabbed coins and you'll find the top 10-15 dealers listing their coins here. I'm very fortunate where I live here in mid Michigan because Liberty Coins is here and I've dealt with them for years. https://libertycoinservice.com/
    Never, ever, ever buy anything off of TV. It's all marked up about 50% over common retail. Also, you CAN get some buys on Ebay but it's tough and you really have to shop and know your sellers.
    good luck,
    rono
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    @Mark- Well, I'm about out of ideas. As Catch22 noted it does seem suggestive that there was an update about the time that your problem seems to have appeared. You may just have to use the MFO "return links" , at least for the time being.
    As a background note, I learned years ago, the hard way, to never allow automatic updates of any kind, without asking permission first. If it's working well, then leave it the hell alone.
    I never update the operating system without having a backup using the existing one. Exactly because of this kind of crap.
  • "Generational event"
    @catch22
    My wife and I owned a small winter home for several years in a middle class neighborhood adjacent to Lemon Bay in the village of Englewood along the gulf coast of central Florida. Our neighbors were in general very "down to earth", friendly, and helpful people who would sometimes self categorize themselves as rednecks. We still keep in touch with some of them, me only by email, and my wife by email and Facebook. Here are a couple of observations.
    It has done me and my wife little good to respond to "political opinion" emails we receive with fact laced responses. Their emails are intended to preach to the choir. Unless their hymn book gets changed, our fact based arguments will be ignored. (That is why I found the Bill Gates interview I posted this morning with the link to Fox to be encouraging.)
    They are in general "show me" people who are inclined to ignore potential problems until the problems personally hit them square in the face (or perhaps the lungs in this case). This ties to the problem with making data/model/science based arguments. Hopefully, convincing the choir leaders to update their hymn books can help in this regard too.
  • "Generational event"
    Hi @davfor First, thank you for the article post.
    I have not read the write in full, but much had been discussed here; about forward impacts in so many areas. The economy will be damaged very deeply, just look around with what you know and understand about the state you reside. The cranial-rectal inversion syndrome crowd, for whatever reason, remain impaired with critical thinking. Data page (I'll try the full open link at the end, below my name. It will not link properly at this time when embedded) for the young who don't/didn't know better
    and why I did and do still fear the number of retired snowbirds when they leave their southern nests and return to Michigan, let alone the young invincible and the southern states who refused to close the beaches, etc. The data related link in bold is for the danger that has already arrived regarding the young ones. Surely, they didn't THINK that they might be involved in the deaths of family members or friends who are more "at risk".
    As to the adults with "the cranial-rectal inversion syndrome", well; so many of the older ones I know are not fixable; although some are beginning to "see the light". I/we use Facebook as linkage to our local school system. 'Course, we had to create a page/name; but there is nothing to see at the page........blank city. However, this allows me to visit other pages to read some posts (can't see everything without being a "friend"); but I see most of the posts and replies. Pretty sad bunch on the right side of the fence; folks I've know for decades. They're still posting about getting rid of Pelosi.....they have stopped the posts about COVID not being more of a problem than the common FLU. I emailed 5 of the people I've known for many years, ranging in age from 60-76. I noted to them that I know 3 of you were and/or are still smokers and that 2 of you have had mild heart conditions; and are you aware that if you contract the virus that your odds of surviving are very small. No replies yet.
    A last note regarding Facebook pages I viewed this morning (April 5). A known (I know him) right winger placed a post (data source unknown, as is usual) stated that the virus "success" rate for recovery is 98.54%, "Why isn't this number being talked about on TV/media. Using a rounded figure of 330 million for U.S. population, his math works out to a death number of, 4,818,000. Geez.
    AS to the adults who remain with the "cranial-rectal inversion syndrome" here's the game being played by Gov. Kemp of Georgia. The link has
    multiple choices for reading....especially the Tybee Island Mayor.
    Personal summary = We do our best here to stay out of harms way to avoid contracting the virus; and there remains so many dumb asses in the pathway to safety. I'd like to take them all to Detroit to help the paramedics and hospital staff. OH, and you want to wear a mask.......and you didn't bring your own........sorry, we're out of stock. Check Amazon.
    Talk about part of our society being so screwed up in the brain cell area. I do believe they are in the land of OZ and I know which character they are.....
    I'm done, I'm tired of writing about all of this.
    Nap time is in my future.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
    https://t.co/3A3ePn9Vin" Click the map, enlarge and unmute on sound. About 1:15 minutes
  • FUND reopenings
    Not happy Fidelity reopened FSMEX. I’ve been invested in it for three+ years now and I thought the AUM was more than high enough.
    The AUM is still over $5 billion. I presume they see great “value”in their space. I sure hope that’s the reason!
  • Bullions shortage
    Howdy folks,
    Author is a bit of a gold bug but spot on.
    I can assure you that the vast majority of those holding physical bullion are NOT selling. There is very little available supply of gold or silver. If you are able to find some, the premium is so high you're not even on the same page as the spot price. Oh, and delivery is weeks, if not months away.
    Where this is starting to explode is with the London and Comex exchanges as no one is able to take delivery of real bullion. They've changed the rules almost daily to block anyone from even thinking about taking delivery on a contract. [Silly rabbits, this is Paper gold not the real stuff.]
    For years there has been a sizable number of people who believed the paper bullion market was a fraud and it was double and triple counting all the physical bullion supposedly backing it. They warned that if anyone actually tried to take delivery the system would implode. No gold in Fort knox, etc.
    This is what appears to be happening.
    Now please don't lump me in with the latter conspiracy theory bunch. There is no plot or conspiracy. The reality is that everyone acts in their own self interest and if they are positioned to manipulate a market to their advantage- they will. You would and so would I.
    I do think there is a LOT of double counting and there isn't nearly the correct amount of real bullion behind the paper bullion instruments that exist. Hell, at times there was more short interest than all the bullion that ever existed. However this is allowed under the rules by which we play the game.
    I play the bullion market like any other market subject to artificial price controls. There's no difference. When the official price is higher than the price you feel your supply is worth, you either don't sell (supply shortages) or you increase the premium to the street price - if you legally can. Or both.
    I watch the divergence between the spot price (paper) and the street price (spot + premium). This is my "canary in the coal mine", if you will. The greater the divergence the louder the canary's chirps. Think of it as a Fear index.
    That little rascal is screaming his ass off right now.
    Please people, buckle TF up. This is Not a drill.
    And so it goes
    Peace and Flatten the Curve
    Rono
  • Matthews China Small Companies MCSMX
    This is such a niche fund holding. I'd be very careful. If youre interested in EM take a look at ARTYX. Its done quite well in its 3 years. Has also held up well compared to its category. MY favorite intl holding though is MFAIX. Best risk adjusted returns over 3, 5 and 7 years
  • Dodge and Cox
    VTV is not SP500 value, right? That would be VOOV.
    3/4 as many stocks.
    And if you write and edit fund prospectuses, you recognize that the D&C language nuance / emphasis are subtly more different from than similar to the TRP language.
    My main point, for years now, that many put D&C on a pedestal because their team management style, LT investing history, lower rates which I know all about but the numbers don't back it up and then I hear the excuses.
    Any fund can make up a more complicated strategy and claim...well, it's not really the same so you can't compare it.
    LC US stocks is the main category investors use and if a fund can't perform better for 1-3-5-10-15 years than the SP500 + its volatility is higher than the SP500 there are no buts or ifs. We are talking short-term + long-term
    See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
    As of 3/31/2020
    15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
    15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
    Below is the more current results as of 04/03/2020
    image