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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AMIDEX35 Israel Fund to be liquidated
    For those who absolutely must have an Israel fund, be of good cheer. There's still TPIAX (NTF at TD Ameritrade). 60 stocks instead of 30, $70M AUM instead of $6M.
    Years ago, before AMDEX started, there was an Israel fund managed by David Herro. Load fund only, and died a relatively quick death. I don't know of any other funds that invested exclusively in companies connected to Israel.
    https://www.investmentnews.com/fund-betting-israieli-oasis-is-no-miragepast-offerings-counted-on-jewish-community-which-wasnt-buying-2046 (Oct 18, 1999)
    “Open-end single country funds are problematic, especially for a smaller market like Israel,” says Bill Rocco, an analyst with Chicago-based fund tracker Morningstar Inc.
    That’s why, he says, most single country funds are closed-end. Managers of those funds don’t have to sell holdings to meet redemptions.
    “It’s not an accident that most single country funds are closed-end,” he says.
  • IOFIX/IOFAX marketing materials/prospectus
    Re: IOFIX
    Somehow received (Lipper’s) “Multi-sector income” classification
    1.50% ER / Inception: May 2015
    The chart : Steady climb upward following inception, gaining over 50% for investors in fewer than 5 years - during an era of 2% (or lower) interest rates on investment grade paper. Leverage and / or derivatives had at work to achieve that stunning record. Dropped completely “off the radar” in mid-March and plunged to the ground with breathtaking speed. Without really having the data, obviously there was a rapid exodus of investors heading for the gate when things started to come unglued. Harkens back to the liquidity issue addressed by many here, including Lewis Braham most recently.
    I’ve never observed a chart like that nor seen a fund fall so precipitously so fast. I can empathize with those who were taken to the cleaners. (There but for the grace of God ... ) On the other hand, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. The only thing remotely similar in my memory would be Oppenheimer’s “Core Bond” and their “Champion Income” funds - both of which imploded in 2008 and resulted in numerous (successful) lawsuits. The difference: Oppenheimer was a large long established full-feature fund house and the travesty involved a couple funds that had been in existence many years. For some reason they decided to reach for yield and ended up wrecking the funds ... likely contributing to their own future demise.
  • We’re in a new paradigm for stocks, this analyst argues. Get ready for permanently higher valuations
    Shades of Irving Fisher ... I must say flipping channels back and forth last evening to occasionally catch the global “futures markets” while observing the spreading protests / violence in this country seemed a bit surreal. Yes - guns at our state capital and outside the Governor’s residence. The symbolism of armed (masked and unmasked) men confronting a female Governor and AG shouldn’t be dismissed.
    So much paradox.
    Most of the Michigan gun-wielders possess an economic philosophy and political doctrine one would find quite contrary to that of the protesters on the streets of NYC, DC, Minneapolis, Atlanta.
    Than there’s the paradox of billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warning repeatedly in recent years of civil strife / eventual revolution if the widening abyss between wealth and poverty isn’t rectified peaceably. https://observer.com/2019/04/ray-dalio-explain-capitalism-weath-gap-inequality/
    Throw in the paradox of an intense election debate four years ago over building walls - both figuratively and literally - when we need desperately to tear down walls for our own survival.
    Like I said, lots of paradox. Take your pick.
  • Mutual Fund / ETF Research Newsletter ... June 1, 2020 edition
    In this months newsletter below is Dr. Madell's opening paragraphs. They read as follows:
    With all the pandemic, economic, geopolitical, and now societal angst being felt worldwide recently, it should be no surprise that many stock funds have taken it on the chin lately. On the other hand, most bond funds have proven to be a ballast during this period, as discussed in last month's Newsletter. This once again proves that, for many, in order to more safely avoid the risks of an all-stock portfolio, one containing both these asset classes makes a whole lot of sense. (Of course, the reverse is true as well: If bonds enter a prolonged period of poor or even negative performance, it should prove to be wise to be a holder of at least some stocks as well as bonds, as the two asset classes tend to go in somewhat different directions.)
    But what is truly surprising is how well stocks have confounded our worst fears which might have suggested a more drastic collapse. In fact, for those who have been long-term holders, it might almost appear that nothing at all has been happening. In particular, had one stayed in the game over the last 10 years, the majority of holders of quality stock funds and ETFs, if they, similar to Rip Van Winkle, had just woken up from a one decade long sleep and took a glance at the performance of their portfolio, they would hardly be aware of anything out of the ordinary having happened.
    As you will see in the many performance results presented in this article, Armageddon has not yet occurred for most stock investors, although that is certainly no guarantee that things may still not get worse rather than better.
    To continue reading click on the link below.
    http://funds-newsletter.com/jun20-newsletter/jun20.htm
  • IOFIX/IOFAX marketing materials/prospectus
    Here's link to April marketing brief:
    http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
    No mention of liquidity crisis.
    Just: "Turn in Q1 2020 Marks The Sharpest Reversal in History"
    Once the Fed stepped-in and the redemptions stopped (aka once it survived a run on the fund), the fund has rebounded nicely, if still a long way to go.
    I still like the strategy, but as an MBS value trade, not for no-drawdown, steady-eddy behavior the fund displayed for nearly 5 years.
    At the end of the day, it's still a high-yield, non-investment grade bond fund ... concentrated in one sector.
    Allocate accordingly unless you are willing to treat it as a trade and exit at first sign of trouble.
    Eyes wide open and fearful everyday you own it.
  • We’re in a new paradigm for stocks, this analyst argues. Get ready for permanently higher valuations
    I've been thinking that for years... too greedy and you'll tip the cart, don't push it...we're getting close. Do you really need that 3rd yacht and 5th multi-million dollar house? Be careful or you'll watch them burn to the ground.
  • We’re in a new paradigm for stocks, this analyst argues. Get ready for permanently higher valuations
    This short article discusses changes Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTreck Research, thinks have taken place during the 21st century compared to the prior 50 years. He thinks these changes have increased what the stock market accepts to be reasonable valuations. Its interesting he includes a "DC Put" in his description of the crisis response tools the markets will expect to be utilized going forward.
    A new model for assessing stocks may include higher valuations, as the old paradigm is no longer valid, according to a research note from DataTrek Research on Tuesday.
    More aggressive Fed interventions will keep the stock market bottoms higher, and low interest rates and more innovation can boost the tops.
    https://marketwatch.com/story/were-in-a-new-paradigm-for-stocks-this-analyst-argues-get-ready-for-permanently-higher-valuations-2020-05-19?mod=home-page
  • Stocks Are Too Risky. What GMO’s Inker Says to Buy Instead.
    GMO has been wrong for 10 years already. I posted about them for years. Their forecast for US stocks were off significantly, they prefered EM stocks which lagged by a lot too.
    I kept GMO forecast fro 2010, see the (link)
    Since 2008-9 and massive intervention by the Fed all the following forecasts were wrong GMO, Bogle, Gundlach, Arnott(PAUIX), PE, PE10, inverted yield
    Follow the charts and trends and dismiss all the forecasts.
  • How Much of the Bear Market Losses Have Been Recovered?
    Hi @MikeM,
    PARHX is a good fund, no doubt, and for some it might be a better choice over what they are presently doing.
    For me, it would be very costly for me to switch to any one fund such as PARHX. Being an investor since the age of 12 (now age 72+) I built my portfolio over the years (comprised of several accounts) and presently I have now built up huge gains through organic growth. If I were to sell out there would be a sizeable tax bill associated with this as well and some other negative factors (resulting from a bulk sell out) such as increased medicare premiums, so on and so forth.
    In addition, owning just one fund does nothing to manage fund manager and strategy risk. Look what happened with one of the board's darlings ... IOFAX. Just ask yourself where would you be if you had gone all in with this one fund?
    Moving on ... This is why the board is so great as we can exchange ideas and concepts. What might be right for one just might not be so right for another. And, by all means ... I'm not saying what I am doing is the absolute best.
    With this, I wish you the very best with your investing endeavors and that you will come up with something that brings you the results you seek.
    Old_Skeet
  • Stocks Are Too Risky. What GMO’s Inker Says to Buy Instead.
    GMO has been saying EM will out preform for years.. Eventually by the roll of the dice they will be right I guess. I think they base a lot of their opinion on valuations. This outpreformance may eventually be is true but the only thing Brazil is out preforming on now is new Covid cases and deaths, for example. I think Covid will decimate EM.
    GMO website has many very long and very thoughtfully argued position papers, including a number by Grantham that are valuable about climate change, but I have never mad any money following their advice.
    Inker has just cut equities to 25% in GBMFX the global allocation fund he has run for decades.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/analysis
    Mere mortals can't get into this fund, although it is not clear why you would want to with it's middling record over the last few years. TIAA offered it for years in their retirement plans, but recently removed it probably because of nonperformance. My wife's account would have been better off in VWINX which has a ten year return of 105% vs GBMFX 38%
    Every dog may have it's day....
    You can get into Inker's GMO fund. WARCX Wells Fargo Absolute Return is a feeder fund into GBMFX. However the expense ratio is 2.28% and a 1% differed load. Its track record is not stellar.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Analysis at the end, after the performance.

    Performance......One month...YTD as of 5/29/2020

    Multi
    PDIIX…3.1....-2.35
    PUCZX…3.8…-3.7
    JMUTX....4.0....-5.1
    TSIIX.....3.1….-0.1
    PTIAX….1.9….-0.2
    Multi(high % securitized)
    PIMIX.....2.3….-3.4
    EIXIX…..3.1….-0.4
    VCFAX...2.8....-10.8
    IOFIX.....6.3....-26.3
    HY Munis
    PHMIX…..3.4.....-3.1
    NHMAX....4.6.....-7.3
    OPTAX.....3.2.....0.15.
    ORNAX….3.9…-5.25
    BSNIX....2.8....3.4
    GWMEX….5.0…..-3.1 (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    NVHAX…1.5…-6.2 (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    SAMFX.......0.7.....8.0
    BCOIX......1.3…...4.4
    SCCIX.....1.3....11.2
    ANBEX……1.6....12..9
    BND….......0.7…...5.7
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    EIFAX.......4.3.....-8.2
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    IISIX..........3.0....-6.3
    PMZIX......1.5….-0.1
    JSIAX……1.5….-0.3
    HY +EM
    HYG.........2.95.....-4.5
    PHIYX.......4.0.....-4.1
    FNMIX……7.5……-6.4
    Corporate
    PIGIX….…1.7.….0.1
    VCIT……..2.7…..3.5
    Preferred
    PFINX…...2.7……-6.0
    OTHER
    FXAIX.…..3.8..…-5.0 (SP500)
    PCI………7.0... -23.7 (CEF)
    Observations:
    Last month was another rebound month. Several bond funds made as much money as stocks.
    Multi- did great. TSIIX(multi) + EIXIX(Multi securitized continues to show the best risk/reward. JMUTX shows good momo. IOFIX shows the best momo but I can’t forget its meltdown
    HY Munis had a great rebound in May. BSNIX had the best risk/reward. GWMEX had the best momo.
    Inter term – did well. If you doubt about finding better funds then look at ANBEX.
    Bank loans – Good rebound but still big losses YTD
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-PMZIX with great risk/reward but if you want to make money look at IISIX,JSIAX.
    HY+EM – Good rebound in May.
    Corp – In a tough market VCIT beat PIGIX.
    SP500-Just -5% for YTD. The price crossed the 200 moving average, that means to start buying if you were out.
    PCI-CEF got crushed more than stocks YTD and are still behind. If markets stabilize they will make more money than stocks.
    ===========================
    My own portfolio
    As expected from a trader I go where I see momentum but still look at risk/reward. The market looks better than before and why I start taking more risks.
    Early in the month, I had 3 holdings but mostly in ANBEX(core plus)+BSNIX(HY Munis) but I switched to GWMEX(HY Munis)+TSIIX(Multi) + EIXIX. I have over 50% in GWMEX, a smaller position in TSIIX, and a much smaller in EIXIX.
    Stats: My portfolio made over 8% YTD.
    For 3 years I made over 9% average annually with SD lower than 2 (remember, my goals were 6+% and SD lower than 3). My portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top. So, when they tell you that bonds (I also trade stocks,CEFs) are boring with no future I keep chuckling and the unbelievers will continue to dismiss the numbers.
    FUND...3 YR...SD
    SPY.....10.15...16.9
    VBINX...8......10.7
    VWIAX...6.4...6.9
    Mine.....9+....under 2
    It looks better after the rebound but at the end of March(see below), it was so much worse. See PV(link)
    FUND...3 YR...SD
    SPY.....5......14.9
    VBINX...4.45....9.3
    VWIAX...4.17...6
    Mine.....not far from the above
    The above is not a recommendation, you must do your own due diligence. My holdings can change at any time :-)
  • Stocks Are Too Risky. What GMO’s Inker Says to Buy Instead.
    Don't know @bee. I'm not defending what Inker is saying has value. Just copy pasted Inker's response to why they have been recommending EM as where to be for the last 3 years. I never know if those without a subscription to Barron's can read these articles.
    Actually I thought the interviewer called out GMO pretty well on there wrong (to date) predictions.
  • Bond Investors Are Better Off in ‘Interval Funds.’ Here’s Why.
    Personally, I enjoy reading articles like the one under discussion for the added insights into the workings of funds it conveys. So, I never view any particular fund approach being depicted by an author as “good”, “bad”, applicable or non-applicable to me. I just enjoy the extra depth of knowledge conveyed. In “Investing 101” some decades ago I learned that a “bond fund” is not a “bond.” They’re very different animals and behave differently. Pretty simple stuff. I assume most here who own bond funds understand that distinction.
    What has changed is that 25 years ago prevailing rates were much higher. The manager had “wiggle room” to play the rate curve and grab off a decent return for his investors without taking great risk. But with rates as low as they are, managers are in a real bind and the risks of substantial loss (even on investment grade paper) are much higher today; while the potential return is paltry. That doesn’t even begin to address the complex rating issues for lower rated bonds. Nor does it address the substantial changes in trading habits that have evolved since the day when one called in his fund exchanges over the telephone (the corded variety).
  • market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?
    @bee, Depending on which phase the investors are in, retirees may have have 5.5 years timeframe to recover. The recent 30% drawdown would require 47% return just to reach the break-even point.
    Assuming the retirees chose a more conservative allocation, say 50/50 as they approach the retirement date, the drawdown of their portfolio would near 15% and that is more manageable. Challenge today is finding bond funds with yields north of 2% without incurring higher risk including junk and EM bonds. Even the investment grade bonds went down to 8% during the sell off in early March as investors fled to cash. The market has recovered some in recent weeks but now the trade war with China just flare up again.
  • market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?
    @catch22: I don't recall seeing any daily/weekly trade(s) conformation here as to what is stated by @FD1000 for his account(s) returns.
    You don't have to believe anything I say. The chance I will post all/any of my trades are slim. The following are several points from the past.
    1) I retired after 23 years after starting investing 1995-2018. It's all from savings and investing. Never got any help, stock options, or inheritance in the past or in the future.
    2) In the last 3 years, my portfolio performance was above 9% average annually with SD < 2 (it's 1.91). I never lost more than 1% from any last top. My goal was to make 6+% with SD<3 which means I easily passed it.
    3) My portfolio now is about 33 times our yearly expenses and we still don't take out SS.
    If you think the above is a dream then I'm OK with it
  • market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?
    A T. Rowe Price Read:
    An Overview of Market Resilience
    On average, each of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II has lasted almost 22 months, and market recovery times have ranged from two months to a little over five-and-a-half years
    Charts of previous Recessions:
    https://screencast.com/t/nMBImzT5lAvV
    Article:
    Market_Resilience
  • Stocks Are Too Risky. What GMO’s Inker Says to Buy Instead.
    The interviewer asked the question about their EM predictions. This was the question and response from the article:
    You’ve recommended emerging market stocks since 2017. That hasn’t panned out. Why do you still like them?
    The average emerging stock is trading at half the valuation of the average U.S. large-cap stock. We’ve seen in emerging the same thing we’ve seen in the developed world: A relatively small handful of growth stocks have outperformed the indexes hugely, and half of the universe or more has been left behind. As a result, you can put together a portfolio of decent companies trading at about one times book value and seven times trailing earnings, with a trailing dividend yield of over 6%. That’s pricing in a really bad outcome, which is comforting. If you think earnings are merely going to be stable, you have an earnings yield of 14%. You don’t need to imagine good things happening to get good returns out of companies trading at those valuations.
    Another pointed question on their accuracy around the US stock market:
    Does that cause you to wonder if you should tweak your model to take secular changes into account?
    Over the course of those 20 years, we have done a lot of digging into our assumptions, to understand where things have played out differently than we expected. One of the striking [observations]: Profitability around most of the world has been stable. Profitability for U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks has been stable. The one place that was absolutely not the case is U.S. large- caps, which have seen profitability, and their apparent return on capital, move up in a way that is fairly unique.
  • Stocks Are Too Risky. What GMO’s Inker Says to Buy Instead.
    GMO has been saying EM will out preform for years.. Eventually by the roll of the dice they will be right I guess. I think they base a lot of their opinion on valuations. This outpreformance may eventually be is true but the only thing Brazil is out preforming on now is new Covid cases and deaths, for example. I think Covid will decimate EM.
    GMO website has many very long and very thoughtfully argued position papers, including a number by Grantham that are valuable about climate change, but I have never mad any money following their advice.
    Inker has just cut equities to 25% in GBMFX the global allocation fund he has run for decades.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/analysis
    Mere mortals can't get into this fund, although it is not clear why you would want to with it's middling record over the last few years. TIAA offered it for years in their retirement plans, but recently removed it probably because of nonperformance. My wife's account would have been better off in VWINX which has a ten year return of 105% vs GBMFX 38%
    Every dog may have it's day....
  • market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?
    twas just kidding about FD and my moolah, and forget about him posting his trades, etc. i do take him at his word, however, as regards his returns.
    meanwhile, ben f is an ancestor of mine ... and i've got the massive forehead to prove it, if not the brains behind it.
    Thanks @linter,
    I’ve no reason to doubt FD1000’s word either. Everything posted here - including by me - should be taken within the context, as I think @Catch22 intended, of being non-verifiable assertion. It also needs to be considered within the context of the poster’s age and circumstance. For younger investors, a couple 10% “down years” followed by a couple 25-30% “up years” ain’t too bad. For others that might be too much volatility.
    I’ve resolved in the past to reveal as little as possible here of the investments I own, recognizing that such information / comment is largely non-verifiable and possibly non-applicable to others. Like Franklin, I sometimes find resolutions difficult to keep.
    -
    @WABC - You just made my day with your above Franklin link. :) Here it is again for benefit of others: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/98062-in-all-your-amours-you-should-prefer-old-women-to / It begins, “In all your Amours you should prefer old Women to young ones ... “
    Such despicable thoughts. So eloquently stated. Now, me wonders if it might have been intended as satire; while being fully aware that in life Franklin bore a rather raucous reputation, reputedly fathering several children out of wedlock.
  • Today’s Interest Rate Environment - A Challenge For Investors And Their Fixed Income Allocation
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/randywarren/2020/05/27/todays-interest-rate-environmenta-challenge-for-investors-and-their-fixed-income-allocation/#479fbfa6caf9
    Today’s Interest Rate Environment - A Challenge For Investors And Their Fixed Income Allocation
    The Role of Bonds in a Portfolio while Interest Rates are Low
    /Today’s interest rate environment poses a challenge for investors and their fixed income allocation. In the US and around the world government bond yields are at extremely low levels, at the time of writing this report, the US Treasury 10 year is at .70% and some other countries’ yields are zero or negative. Over the years investors have looked to bonds for income, capital preservation and a hedge against inflation. Investors have enjoyed a bull market in fixed income securities/bonds over the last 40 years!/
    Have not sold bonds and bonds etf in our other vsnguard portfolio, we did not see a large drop compared to DOWS Or SPY, but of course now its still going up slowly not like our merrilledge portfolio all stocks...at least we sleep better at night....
    Another interesting read gives good ideas but from oversea INDIA
    https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/351139