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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 4 funds that provide shelter from the storm
    I was a long time holder of FPACX but about 2 1/2 years ago I decided to bail.
    Very happy I did I believe there are many better options going forward.
    I do believe the increase increase in AUM has hurt the fund among other issues.
  • VLAAX
    Just bought a bit of VLAAX and VALIX. If market heads south will sell ICMAX and ICMCX and average over into the former. Intrepid funds I have held for years. At the very least they should change the freakin name...like Wimply funds.
  • Self-Directed 401(k) Investors Finish 2019 Strong With Average Account Balances up 19% Year-Over-Yea
    Don't be too impressed by these DIY investors. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI):
    for 2019 as a whole – well, in a year that the S&P 500 rose more than 28%, and the Dow gained 22% (the NASDAQ was up an even better 35%), the average 401(k) balance – buttressed not only by the markets, but by contributions – ended the year 44.9% higher for those workers aged 25-34 with less than 4 years of tenure, while workers with more than 20 years of tenure, aged 55-64, registered a 24.6% increase.
    The EBRI figures include 26 million participants working with all sorts of plan custodians, while Schwab's report covers just 142K participants using Schwab's services.
    As noted in the quoted paragraph, increases in account values include not only growth but contributions. So the "younger" the account, the greater the impact of a year's worth of contributions. This makes comparisons difficult without more details. Still, even older 401(k) investors did better on average than the Schwab DIY customers.
    A word about terminology: "self-directed" means something different when applied to 401(k)s and to IRAs. In the context of 401(k)s, it just means a brokerage window - the ability of participants to invest through a company-designated brokerage. Thus investments are not limited to the 401(k)s menu of options, typically mutual funds, ETFs, stable value funds, and company stock. But they are still limited to what one can buy in a "vanilla" brokerage.
    That's simply what one would expect with an "ordinary" IRA. In contrast, a self-directed IRA enables one to invest in virtually anything the IRS allows, including real estate, gold coins, etc. However it is a more complex vehicle. Very different from a 401(k) brokerage window.
  • 4 funds that provide shelter from the storm
    @johnN
    The only fund here that I have confidence in is VWELX and even then, if you want shelter I’d pick VWINX. VWINX is one of my funds that I have held for years and feel confident doing so. No homer’s not even doubles, but consistent singles. If I could only pick one fund I think VWINX would be “the one”. Don’t get me wrong, I like buying other funds and trying to maximize returns, but so far VWINX has been solid.
  • Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rate by .5%
    Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategy of AGF Investments said:
    "The downside is that the "saver class," which consists mostly of senior citizens, "have been hit again" because of falling yields. However, Valliere expects a "tremendous amount of refinancing."
    Great! I am going to suggest to my 85-year-old father who lives on his Social Security check and small savings, to refinance his condominium for 30 years.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    On March 1st I said "SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7"
    MFO fund screener(<a href="https://www.member.mfopremium.com/quicksearch/">link) says IOFIX is the best performer for 3 years for the Multi sector category.
    Please read the presentation by the fund (link). There is no guarantee of what will happen in the future. I think the worse was in 11/2018 when IOFIX lost more than 1% in one day.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @guilhermes
    ZEOIX had a good record for several years but HY have their problem when markets collapse. Losing -0.8% is a lot of money especially when you compare it to DHEIX which has over 80% in IG rating bonds. BTW, ZEOIX also lost -0.6% in Q4/2018.
    I'm just giving several options. If it was me and I was looking for a "cash sub" fund I would use DHEIX and not ZEOIX. See (chart)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @davidrmoran
    When I say 4.5% including inflation it means exactly that. These numbers are based on 3% inflation. In 2010 I planned my retirement date to be at the end of 2017. I postponed it by one year because private healthcare (ACA) triple in price. So, from 2010 to 2018 I gradually decrease our portfolio % in stocks and increase bonds. Since 2018, I mainly invest in bond + make several trades in riskier stuff(stocks,ETFs,CEFs) for days and weeks.
    I used to own a large % in PIMIX for years from 2011-2018. This is the performance of PIMIX vs 50/50 SPY/BND (link)
    The 6% is just a goal but I happened to make more in 2018-2019. According to my Schwab account, my portfolio SD for 2018-19 is 1.7. In Q4/2018 when the SP500 lost almost 20%, my portfolio was down less than 1%. In the last 2 weeks, when stocks lost 12+% my portfolio made money every day.
    Let's stay on the topic of this thread Bond fund analysis.
  • Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    https://www.fool.ca/2020/02/29/retirees-how-to-protect-your-rrsp-from-a-stock-market-crash/
    (Canadian article)
    Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    This week, markets have been crashing worldwide on fears that the ongoing COVID-19 spread will massively impact the global economy. Already, we’re seeing supply chains severely disrupted, as Chinese factories shut down and buyers like Apple tell investors to brace for weaker-than-anticipated earnings. For retirees who are banking on their RRSP to carry them through their golden years, it’s a scary time. While Canadian markets aren’t down as much as U.S. markets, we’re beginning to feel the heat at home, and virtually all equity markets are down worldwide.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Mark, I have heard this claim for years, the NAV is still OK but in reality, you trade the price and the only one you have access to your money ;-)
    I do agree the NAV is an important aspect of valuation+trading and in many cases, it's clearer to see when a fixed income CEF is on sale than a stock mutual fund.
    I also agree that PCI is a better value now but there is no way to know if we are closer to the bottom. In most cases, based on the past, you are correct..but, are we now in a similar case or different? the future will tell us :-)
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Rates of death 20s% over 80 years old, 14% 60 to 80 years old, less than 1% if younger than 60
    More than 1/5ths trump voters maybe out by end of may,/june
    Trump Biden bernie Bloomberg may be gone, high exposures to crowded areas
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    In case you missed it
    More cases in washington state one dating from specimen January 19th It has been circulating for weeks
    None with any travel history or contact. Possibly one in RI
    Faucci who is a hero for banging the drum about AIDS and has been head of NIH infectious disease institute since 1983,was scheduled for all five Sunday talk shows but was suddenly replaced by HHS secretary who is a pharmaceutical executive not a doc. Trump of course says he was not muzzled
    I am curious why Faucci is going along with these orders. He is almost 80 years old and has nothing to gain and a lot to loose by cooperating too much with the Trump morons.
    He must believe he can somehow influence them, and can still get out before the tar baby coats him and his stellar reputation goes down the drain.
    If I were him I would have a massive press conference, call a spade a spade and dare them to publicaly fire me
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Analysis at the end, after the performance.

    Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020

    Multi
    PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
    PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
    JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
    JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
    PTIAX….3.7….1.0
    Multi(high % securitized)
    PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
    EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
    VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
    IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
    SEMMX...1.8....0    (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    PHMIX…..4.6.....1
    NHMAX....5.35.....1
    MMHAX....4.15.…..1
    OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
    ORNAX….5.3……1.3
    GHYAX......4.4......1
    GWMEX….5.3…...1.5  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    NVHAX……2.8……0.4  (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
    BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
    PINCX……3.5..…0.9
    BND….......3.7…....1.1
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
    PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
    PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
    HY +EM
    HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
    PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
    ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SDCorporate
    PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
    VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
    Preferred
    PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
    OTHER
    FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4  (SP500)
    PCI………-5.4... -7.6  (CEF)
    “CASH SUB" (most with 3 years SD under 1 or close to it)
    SEMMX...1.8....0      
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35
    ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
    DBLSX…0.75….0.1
    LALDX….1.0….0.1
    SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2  (ST HY)
    MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
    PMZIX….1.3….0.25
    BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)
    Observations:
    Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.
    Multi- mixed bag last week.  PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds.
    Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down
    Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY.  I use this category only when I know rates are going up.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT
    HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.
    Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.
    SP500-in correction
    PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week.  At times like this CEFs are exposed.
    “CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD less than 1.  It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds.  SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.  OPTAX has done best YTD
    The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,PUCZX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX.  SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized.  JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise of losing just -0.1%. PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.
    “CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list)  as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link).  In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT
    IISIX disappointed.  Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner.  Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.
  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    Worst: Two weeks ago, HACAX was up 13% YTD. Now it's down 2% YTD. So it's still beating S&P 500 YTD. I've held it around 20 years. The shares come with a seatbelt and owner's manual.
    Best: DODIX.
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    US treasury and high quality investment grade bonds have done the best. Junk and emerging market (USD hedged or local currency) bonds had declined.
    When rates decline high rated bonds do great.
    As a mainly bondholder like me who wants to make more money in bonds, I'm looking for more flexible funds that do better in most markets.
    NHMAX (HY Muni) has over 70% below investment grade bonds but they still managed to make 1% last week.
    While most Multi lost money last week IOFIX made just 0.07 but PTIAX made 1% and VCFAX,SEMMX just lost -0.1%
    When rates will go up treasuries will lose a lot more.
    PUCZX+PIMIX disappointed last week. I use PIMIX as a second-tier fund since early 2018 and now added PUCZX to the same list. I can still use both for trading. PUCZX is rated at the top 5-9% for 1-3 years at M* but 49 for YTD. PIMIX is rated at YTD-63 one year-69 3 yr-23
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @mark
    This is a very unique time for me and why I will answer your question :-)
    My goals as a retiree are: I need to make only 4.5% including inflation (Based on 2019, maybe I need only 4%) average annually to sustain our standard of living. But, I still want to make 6% with the lowest volatility (SD < 3) and never lose more than 3% from any last top.
    YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Last Thursday, I sold half of NHMAX. On Friday, I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX. This YTD (chart) is the answer to why.
    So, why now? rates went low very quickly, NHMAX is up nicely YTD. I want to bank my sure money. Later. I will enter again depending on markets. Maybe a ST fund like NVHAX or less "risky" fund like OPTAX.
    IOFIX did so much better than most other Multisector funds, again, I'm taking my profit and watching. There is no way to be sure how IOFIX will do if markets go wild.
    VIX is extremely high and stocks crashed very quickly this week. I bet our Fed (and maybe other abroad) will do something, I will buy 10-20-30% stocks based on markets.
    Volatility is my friend.
    Generally, I'm rarely in cash. In the last 10 years, I was in cash for 2-3 weeks in 2013 and Q4/2018. I go to cash when I'm not confident about markets and especially about bonds.
    The above is beyond the scope of this thread and just for info purposes. As I posted before I like to keep this thread as BOND OEFS analysis.
    I don't mind discussing trades, my style or any other subjects (including stock funds or investment concepts) on a new thread.
    I will make another substential post tomorrow for the month of February and more thoughts.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    PUCZX is a fund with several moving parts and why it's harder to predict every move. PIMIX is another fund like that. PUCZX is down 1.4% from its top while PIMIX is down "only" 0.7% but for 3 years PUCZX performance is better than most. BTW, IOFOX SD is higher than many but its performance is way better than most.
    According to MFO databased when you search for Multi sector funds for 3 years + best martin ratio you get the following funds
    Fund performace
    ANFIX 5.3
    IOFIX 10.6
    SEMMX 5.1
    BDKNX 5.7
    ANGLX 4.2
    PUCZX 7.2
    ZEOIX 3.3
    IISIX 5.2
    TSIIX 4.9
    JMUIX 6.2
    RCTIX 7.8
    DPFNX 6.2
    ENIAX 3.9
    JMSIX 6.1
    MINC 2.9
    PIMIX 5.7
    For several years I have been using mainly a subsector of Multi which is securitized. The following funds have at least 85+% in it. DHEIX,SEMMX,VCFAX,DPFNX,IOFIX. In this category, SEMMX has the best performance for SD<1 and IOFIX has the best performance over 10% annually for SD< 2.7. There are only 2 Multi funds with performance over 7% RCTIX,PUCZX.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Most recent JAMA article 20% Chinese cases severe or critical
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
    Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
    The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
    "During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27 years (range,<1-92 years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
    Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
    What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
    While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
    When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
    What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    Hi @Derf
    I'll say laughingly that we sold all of our technology at near the high point, for the day, on Monday morning. We've held this position for a number of years and so have taken the money and "ran".
    However, we still have healthcare and med. tech. for equity. As there is not mercy today for equity, even these got whacked today.
    We're at:
    --- 45% bonds
    --- 27% cash
    --- 28% equity
    We would like the portfolio to be otherwise, but such is the nature of the business.
    Read my add at the COVID thread for other thoughts.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Benefits of the Premium Version of Morningstar compared to regular version.
    I use to have a M* Premium Membership when I used T.RowePrice extensively for my investments. T.Rowe would pay for that M* membership, and I enjoyed it, but I primarily valued the M* section that was free. Eventually, I switched to a full brokerage service, and TRP stopped paying for my Premium Membership. I pondered paying for the Premium Membership, but I just did not find enough value to do that. I still use M* free services extensively with the portfolio management section--I have my own portfolio there with a detailed section using their customized "view" section. I have a significant number of Portfolio watchlists, in which I monitor funds that I have screened and want to keep up with for potential changes in my portfolio, and to reference in the few discussion threads that I participate in. M* still has extensive information, on a very large number of funds, that I use in due diligence data gathering, and that is free for me. As a free service, I have actively participated in their Discussion Forum for years, but my participation has dwindled significantly in recent months. Daily, I still go the M* website for the free services they offered, but I have lost all interest in paying for their Premium services. I now visit websites of funds I am interested in, to get more information on specific funds I am interested in. I am now at Schwab brokerage for all of my investment holdings, and Schwab has a good Screener section I use extensively. So, I still find M* free services valuable, but there are plenty of other options at other websites, to get any additional information I want, without paying or M* Premium.