Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Analysis at the end, after the performance.
Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
PTIAX….3.7….1.0
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
SEMMX...1.8....0 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
HY Munis
PHMIX…..4.6.....1
NHMAX....5.35.....1
MMHAX....4.15.…..1
OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
ORNAX….5.3……1.3
GHYAX......4.4......1
GWMEX….5.3…...1.5 (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
NVHAX……2.8……0.4 (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
PINCX……3.5..…0.9
BND….......3.7…....1.1
Bank Loans/Floating rate
EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
Uncontrain/Nontrad
IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
HY +EM
HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SDCorporate
PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
Preferred
PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
OTHER
FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4 (SP500)
PCI………-5.4... -7.6 (CEF)
“CASH SUB" (most with 3 years SD under 1 or close to it)
SEMMX...1.8....0
DHEIX….1.4….0.35
ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
DBLSX…0.75….0.1
LALDX….1.0….0.1
SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2 (ST HY)
MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
PMZIX….1.3….0.25
BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)
Observations:
Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.
Multi- mixed bag last week. PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK
HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds.
Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down
Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY. I use this category only when I know rates are going up.
Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT
HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.
Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.
SP500-in correction
PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week. At times like this CEFs are exposed.
“CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD less than 1. It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds. SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.
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Generic Views
My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX. OPTAX has done best YTD
The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,PUCZX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX. SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized. JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise of losing just -0.1%. PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.
“CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list) as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link). In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT
IISIX disappointed. Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner. Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.
What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days? Worst: Two weeks ago, HACAX was up 13% YTD. Now it's down 2% YTD. So it's still beating S&P 500 YTD. I've held it around 20 years. The shares come with a seatbelt and owner's manual.
Best: DODIX.
PIMIX vs PUCZX US treasury and high quality investment grade bonds have done the best. Junk and emerging market (USD hedged or local currency) bonds had declined.
When rates decline high rated bonds do great.
As a mainly bondholder like me who wants to make more money in bonds, I'm looking for more flexible funds that do better in most markets.
NHMAX (HY Muni) has over 70% below investment grade bonds but they still managed to make 1% last week.
While most Multi lost money last week IOFIX made just 0.07 but PTIAX made 1% and VCFAX,SEMMX just lost -0.1%
When rates will go up treasuries will lose a lot more.
PUCZX+PIMIX disappointed last week. I use PIMIX as a second-tier fund since early 2018 and now added PUCZX to the same list. I can still use both for trading. PUCZX is rated at the top 5-9% for 1-3
years at M* but 49 for YTD. PIMIX is rated at YTD-63 one year-69 3 yr-23
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! @markThis is a very unique time for me and why I will answer your question :-)
My goals as a retiree are: I need to make only 4.5% including inflation (Based on 2019, maybe I need only 4%) average annually to sustain our standard of living. But, I still want to make 6% with the lowest volatility (SD < 3) and never lose more than 3% from any last top.
YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Last Thursday, I sold half of NHMAX. On Friday, I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX. This YTD (
chart) is the answer to why.
So, why now? rates went low very quickly, NHMAX is up nicely YTD. I want to bank my sure money. Later. I will enter again depending on markets. Maybe a ST fund like NVHAX or less "risky" fund like OPTAX.
IOFIX did so much better than most other Multisector funds, again, I'm taking my profit and watching. There is no way to be sure how IOFIX will do if markets go wild.
VIX is extremely high and stocks crashed very quickly this week. I bet our Fed (and maybe other abroad) will do something, I will buy 10-20-30% stocks based on markets.
Volatility is my friend.
Generally, I'm rarely in cash. In the last 10
years, I was in cash for 2-3 weeks in 2013 and Q4/2018. I go to cash when I'm not confident about markets and especially about bonds.
The above is beyond the scope of this thread and just for info purposes. As I posted before I like to keep this thread as BOND OEFS analysis.
I don't mind discussing trades, my style or any other subjects (including stock funds or investment concepts) on a new thread.
I will make another substential post tomorrow for the month of February and more thoughts.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! PUCZX is a fund with several moving parts and why it's harder to predict every move. PIMIX is another fund like that. PUCZX is down 1.4% from its top while PIMIX is down "only" 0.7% but for 3 years PUCZX performance is better than most. BTW, IOFOX SD is higher than many but its performance is way better than most.
According to MFO databased when you search for Multi sector funds for 3 years + best martin ratio you get the following funds
Fund performace
ANFIX 5.3
IOFIX 10.6
SEMMX 5.1
BDKNX 5.7
ANGLX 4.2
PUCZX 7.2
ZEOIX 3.3
IISIX 5.2
TSIIX 4.9
JMUIX 6.2
RCTIX 7.8
DPFNX 6.2
ENIAX 3.9
JMSIX 6.1
MINC 2.9
PIMIX 5.7
For several years I have been using mainly a subsector of Multi which is securitized. The following funds have at least 85+% in it. DHEIX,SEMMX,VCFAX,DPFNX,IOFIX. In this category, SEMMX has the best performance for SD<1 and IOFIX has the best performance over 10% annually for SD< 2.7. There are only 2 Multi funds with performance over 7% RCTIX,PUCZX.
COVID-19 and the portfolio Most recent JAMA article 20% Chinese cases severe or critical
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
"During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27
years (range,<1-92
years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50
years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.
A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets...... Hi
@DerfI'll say laughingly that we sold all of our technology at near the high point, for the day, on Monday morning. We've held this position for a number of
years and so have taken the money and "ran".
However, we still have healthcare and med. tech. for equity. As there is not mercy today for equity, even these got whacked today.
We're at:
--- 45% bonds
--- 27% cash
--- 28% equity
We would like the portfolio to be otherwise, but such is the nature of the business.
Read my add at the COVID thread for other thoughts.
Take care,
Catch
The Benefits of the Premium Version of Morningstar compared to regular version. I use to have a M* Premium Membership when I used T.RowePrice extensively for my investments. T.Rowe would pay for that M* membership, and I enjoyed it, but I primarily valued the M* section that was free. Eventually, I switched to a full brokerage service, and TRP stopped paying for my Premium Membership. I pondered paying for the Premium Membership, but I just did not find enough value to do that. I still use M* free services extensively with the portfolio management section--I have my own portfolio there with a detailed section using their customized "view" section. I have a significant number of Portfolio watchlists, in which I monitor funds that I have screened and want to keep up with for potential changes in my portfolio, and to reference in the few discussion threads that I participate in. M* still has extensive information, on a very large number of funds, that I use in due diligence data gathering, and that is free for me. As a free service, I have actively participated in their Discussion Forum for years, but my participation has dwindled significantly in recent months. Daily, I still go the M* website for the free services they offered, but I have lost all interest in paying for their Premium services. I now visit websites of funds I am interested in, to get more information on specific funds I am interested in. I am now at Schwab brokerage for all of my investment holdings, and Schwab has a good Screener section I use extensively. So, I still find M* free services valuable, but there are plenty of other options at other websites, to get any additional information I want, without paying or M* Premium.