The answer is about 25 times your annual expenses at retirement. Mr. Bernstein is wrong for decades, if you listen to him, chances you will never retire, especially if you invest in Treasury inflation-protected securities and inflation-adjusted immediate annuities. You must own some stocks and you can do so much better long term with Multisector funds. Investing in TIPS? really? TIPS made just 1.43% annually in the last 5 years, even BND is a better choice. I have been commenting about him for years on Morningstar.

Huh, nearly the complete opposite from Mr. Buffett. Interesting. At the moment I'm roughly 65-35 equities to PIMCO bond funds. All of my equities are invested in dividend aristocrats (companies who have raised their dividends consecutively for 25 years or more) or those who almost make the cut. I think I'll stay where I am.

FYI: On the heels of rewriting the rules of investing through its
groundbreaking ZERO offering, Fidelity Investments®, one of the largest financial service providers with
$6.7 trillion in total client assets, today announced the expansion of its commission-free exchange traded
fund (ETF) platform for individual investors and advisors to include more than 500 ETFs. The move will
offer clients access to high-quality, industry-leading ETFs and further exemplifies Fidelity’s ongoing
commitment to providing the best overall value in the industry. Fidelity has more than $380 billion in
ETF assets under administration, up nearly 80% over the last three years.1
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/press-release/Fidelity-Expands-Commission-Free-ETF-Lineup_021219.pdf

David, why would you need a CAPE stand in?
You turned me on to DSENX years ago and it remains one of my top holdings. FDSAX seems a poor substitute for DOD and it hasn't even kept up with the S&P500 let alone DSENX. Some times more is less. Maybe not even sometimes.

“Think you meant devaluation of the greenback ... “

Same thing @Sven - Value of a currency depreciates as assets appreciate in price (but not “real” value.) As consumers we tend to focus mainly on the inflation part (paying more for items). But, in actuality, it’s the paper we’re paying with that has depreciated (ie: been devalued).
Interesting debate. I’ve heard good arguments for both sides over the years. But I keep going back to that fancy new full-sized sedan I bought off a Detroit dealer’s lot for $2,800 back in 1970. Says something to me about how paper currencies behave over time.

I don't get the newsletter anymore but Dan Wiener used VG International Growth his main foreign fund for several years.

Appears the first 3 years made the most. I'll pass on this one.
Derf

@FD1000, you make a good point looking at the last 3 month spurt. In that case I agree the time to buy was 3 months ago (sounds like a Geico commercial :) ). I was looking at it as what to expect from a long term, next 3-5 years, investment in Munis (or maybe bonds in general) and in that way I wouldn't be comfortable that 1 year or 3 year Muni returns will out-perform CD's or even a money market like they did in past years. But who knows. And maybe that changes if in a taxable account versus tax deferred.
I agree with the point you made though.

I'm not seeing any evidence why Munis would return any more than the MM you are in. They have been a go-no-where investment for over 2 years now. Curious what you see that is going to change that? No, I don't think you can be late to the party. Quite a bit early maybe.

The numbers show a different story
year to date MUB is up 0.6% while a good MM FZDXX is only at 0.2%...for 3 months MUB is up 3.1% while FZDXX 0.6%
Matt is diffidently late because the next 3 month will not be at 3.1% for MUB. I continue to own Munis as long as they have their momentum.

(Unable to read the wsj article.)
I’ve normally gravitated to funds that preached value investing. There are are many different ways to define what a “value stock” represents. But the most important thing IMHO is that the “worst news” has already been discounted by the market so that these stocks aren’t likely to fall much further. Should be just the recipe for a patient long term investor.
Obviously, value hasn’t been the place to be for at least a decade. But it would be sad if managers who preach value investing were to begin acting contrary to the contract they have with their investors and stray from the value approach in search of better return.
Louis Navellier made 10 recommendations in late 2018 for stocks he felt were top value picks. https://investorplace.com/2018/11/10-value-stocks-to-buy-for-december/.
Here’s Navellier’s list:
Wendy’s, Boeing, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon?, Berkshire Hathaway, J.P. Morgan Chase, Proctor & Gamble, United Health Care, Chevron
Of the above, only one, United Health Care, is among OAKBX’s top 25 holdings (my previous post).
:) Just noticed OAKBX holds Phillip Morris. Hard to argue with that one. I think it’s been considered a “value stock” for about as long as I’ve been investing (50 years).

I’ve always been leary of EM equity funds. Perhaps unjustified - but it relates to approximately 35 years ago when a fee-based advisor moved me (and his other clients) from TEMWX, which at the time was a great fund, into TEGOX*, Templeton’s new EM fund. (At that time it represented 100% of my assets.) His stated reason was that the latter would outperform. But it never did as long as I was with him and Templeton. The first had lower fees and an enviable track record. Much easier to “digest” during falling markets. The second had high fees and poor erratic performance at that time.
I do like to own some EM bonds however. Currently own PREMX. I perceive them less risky than EM equities and still offering potential above average long term return. A big reason they’ve spiked recently is in response to the Fed’s 180-degree change in posture and the subsequent pullback in the dollar vs many foreign currencies. As for EM equities, many globally diversified equity funds commit anywhere from 5-25% of their assets to EM equities. (Read Prospectus / Fund Report.) Gets you the EM equity exposure while leaving the harder part (where, when, how much to commit) to the managers.
* Just noticed this fund has been liquidated.
FWIW

I'm not seeing any evidence why Munis would return any more than the MM you are in. They have been a go-no-where investment for over 2 years now. Curious what you see that is going to change that? No, I don't think you can be late to the party. Quite a bit early maybe.

We added EMQQ about 2 years ago after seeing a presentation by funds founder Kevin Carter, was very impressed with growth in internet commerce.

FYI: Every few years, Steve Romick pens a long letter to clients about looming risks for the stock market. His timing is usually too early—credit-default swaps in 2002, subprime mortgages in 2005, excess leverage in banks and investment banks in 2006—but eventually the dangers came to pass. Recently, Romick wrote his latest jeremiad, this time about the risks lurking in sovereign and corporate bonds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-winning-mutual-fund-prepares-for-the-next-storm-51549044547?mod=hp_DAY_10

FYI: The term aristocrat is usually associated with snobbery and status.
In the context of dividends, it’s a lot more down to earth and benevolent. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats have boosted their payouts for at least 25 straight years—a bar that usually reflects solid, durable underlying profit growth for a company. (For more on this group, see “These 5 Stocks Are In Line to Be the Next ‘Dividend Aristocrats.’”)
For retail investors, buying all 53 of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats can be cumbersome and expensive. But there are exchange-traded funds that can help investors that have this income bent. The accompanying table includes three such funds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-etfs-with-reliable-dividends-51548936003?mod=hp_DAY_7

Started at E.F. Hutton then went to Edward D. Jones, Pioneer Funds in here some place then A.G Edwards Dain Rauscher, City Group, Solomon Investment finally ended up at Fido for IRA's and Morgan Stanley for stocks and bonds. This has been over 56 years. I'm still here but a lot of my investment companies didn't make it.

@thundley459 and @slick,
thanks for sharing your thoughts on GQGPX and also PRIJX. Morningstar doesn't cover either. Can I ask what draws you to PRIJX? I see that its a top performer over the last 3 years. For GQGPX, I'm assuming Rajiv Jain's track record is the driver. thanks so much.
@AndyJ and @davfor.. thanks for providing your funds too.

Recently started positions in both iras for GQGPX, run by manager Rajiv Jain who left Virtus to start his own boutique firm in 2016. Owned his Virtus fund for 5 years prior to his leaving and it had an excellent record there. David highlighted his fund recently. I also own GSIHX which he subadvises, that one has a small portion in emerging markets, mainly foreign large growth.
I initially bought GQGPX at td Ameritrade last year until it was available Fidelity late 2018. Am adding to it each month.

@MikeW: I think value should make a comeback and also that TRP has the resources to support this fund. Quite a few prognosticators have picked EMs to do well in coming years, so I'm following them. Seafarer's value fund hasn't shown much yet, but others have commented favorably on it.

Hi @MikeW: I have two emerging market funds with the American Funds Group. One is their New World Fund (NEWFX) which I have owned for better than ten years. The other fund of theirs that I own is their Developing World Growth & Income Fund (DWGAX). I recently purchased my first buy step (of four) in this fund and I plan to continue to add to it through a postion cost average approach until I have the position fully built.
I have other funds that I own that have some exposure to emerging markets; but, these are the two funds that I own that are considered to be emerging market specific.
Also, I found an interesting article written about emerging market funds that might be of some interest. It is linked below for easy reference..
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/740785/5-top-emergingmarkets-funds-that-look-beyond-emerg.html

Thanks very much for sharing your holdings Skeet. New World fund is one I'm evaluating now also. Can I ask how you plan the timing of your buy steps into your funds? Is this something that you plan to do once on the same day each month until you get thru the 4th buy step? Or do you plan based on your market barometer and when its giving you a undervalued rating?
thanks for sharing the article too.