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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I too am concerned this is illiquid. The NAV of funds like these as mentioned is estimated at fair value daily, and you have to take the funds word for it. If everyone wants out at the same time watch out. The fund has an incentive to fiddle with the fair value.
    I owned a Catalyst fund a few years ago. I sold it at the M* and broker published NAV one day but then when the trade settled I got a lower price. Neither the broker nor the fund would acknowledge the difference. It was only a couple of cents but it was a stark example of how the funds can manipulate things to their advantage.
  • Retirees: Don’t Make the Same Mistakes Before a Market Correction
    I wasn’t aware “qualifications” are required for publishing financial news & opinion. Mr. Dias appears to be a fee-based financial advisor based in Florida with 12 years experience, but no certifications.
    https://money.usnews.com/financial-advisors/advisor/carlos-dias-jr-5315390
    @Catch - A week’s stay at his ocean-side condo in Florida in March would be even better than the proverbial steak dinner. Yes, we have on-air “financial advisers” up here pitching annuities. Stay far away.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @Junkster
    R
    I'm not sure where they're still finding non-agency debt trading at 70 cents on the dollar of par value today. One of their major competitors, Angel Oak, at the end of 2018 said they were buying at 86 cents on the dollar: https://angeloakcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/4Q/Seeking_to_Improve_Quality_While_Maintaining_Income_Whitepaper-web.pdf
    Here's what Angel Oak says:
    For example, the prime, Alt-A, and option ARM legacy NA RMBS we target at the top of the capital structure are still at deep discounts relative to par at approximately 86 cents on the dollar.
    So if it's 70 cents, I assume it is probably lower credit quality, which could be fine so long as one is willing to accept the additional default risk. I see the distinction in your post is sub-prime so that must be it.
    Update: OK, I see here for AlphaCentric's own data, the portfolio is at 75 cents on the dollar and the entire market they say is 81 cents on the dollar: alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
    Yet it is interesting--one word for it, scary is another--how far down the capital structure with regard to collateral and credit quality you have to go to get to such discounts now. See page 19 to look at their example of the debt tranches. I'm not saying this strategy won't work, but clearly there are risks here.
    These subprime borrowers have now been in their homes 12 to 16 years and have built up equity instead of being upside down when the housing market cratered in 07/08. Dan Ivascyn mentioned in his recent interview how unlikely these borrowers would be to default now even if they their economic situation worsens. There may be another economic crisis but next time it may finally be the much ballyhooed corporate credit crisis. From my experience investors always want to relive the previous crisis not realizing they never immediately repeat. A classic example is the inflation crisis of the 70s. How many times have we heard since then another inflation crisis is just around the corner.
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    @Charles, Safari has served me well over the years just as IE, Chrome and Firefox on the Windows OS. So far Portfolio tool has been very useful while in exploring less correlated asset classes and lowering the overall risk over time.
    The Recovery time of each fund is another insightful parameter to consider during portfolio construction with respect to the drawdown. Vanguard Total International Stock Index has one of the longest recovery time - 114 months or 9.5 years after 2007 recession.
    Once again, thank you for making this tool available to MFO Premium members. I look forward to the next phase of development.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
    I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
    Yes, that was by far it’s worst one day performance. That was during the period when both stocks and bonds were being pummeled by rising rates. The current rise in the 10 year Treasury has me a bit spooked although it hasn’t impacted IOFIX much or its cousin DPFNX at all. The later holds less subprime. I may lighten up on IOFIX albeit not drastically. Me lightening to any degree works well as a contrarian indicator.
    @Charles, talked with Brian Loo yesterday. They still feel their holdings in their subprime non agency ( I don’t believe they hold any prime or alt-a non agency) has many more years of life left. Trading around 70 cents on the dollar. An ever shrinking asset class equals scarcity value.
    A lot more we discussed but you can give us more details when you update your report after visiting with the other principals in the firm. Of course when speaking with any fund managers how often will you hear anything but a rosy forecast, IOFIX being a niche fund has some unique things going its way. That is unless there is some major collapse in home prices and all those subprime borrowers get upside down on their loans again and this time decide to walk away.
    .
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
    I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???

    @johnN You noted: "Equities maybe still too high imho"
    From a technical view, and only one view type; as technical folks have their own favorite views of the numbers and what they mean, I offer two charts. These charts are set for 5 years of pricing data. One theory is that Relative Strength below 30 is oversold (buy, buy, buy) and over 70 is overbought (handle with caution). This RSI is shown near the top of the chart, and should appear as TEAL in color when over 70. BAGIX (a plain intermediate bond fund), in theory; should be sold, and at the least, not purchased at this point. BUT, what the heck do I/we know. The RSI is merely a gauge of buys and sells to obtain a price point over time. Obviously, the bond types in this fund have had folks buying for awhile, yes?
    As to ITOT (U.S. market etf), which is a twin of Vanguard's VTI for returns; one does not find at this time a RSI that suggests this market area is overbought (not too hot too handle at this time).
    I need to leave this as is for now..... other time commitments; but wanted to offer a view regarding your above statement.
    BAGIX , 5 year chart
    ITOT , 5 year chart
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???
    I don't believe it. This must be the first time in at least ten years that Ted has actually approved of a post by catch22!
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???
    WELL.......
    Negative rates are supposed to stimulate the economy, incentivising investment by making it less attractive to hold cash and spurring demand by making credit cheaper. But evidence of the theory working in practice is far from conclusive. Certainly Europe’s bankers are squealing, as they feel margins squeezed by low rates on lending and a reluctance to pass on negative rates to depositors.

    Why did Europe promote negative interest rates?

    Our Federal Reserve system and Treasury may operate within boundaries that are not available to the ECB (European Central Bank) functions, as the euro area's fiscal and financial rules are not similar. I will not expand this difference here. One may readily discover facts of their choice.
    Suffice to note that the U.S. moved to Quantitative Easing, while the Euro Zone remained with a policy of austerity after the market melt in 2008. Many here will recall the rough times in Europe for several years following the melt.

    As to investment grade bonds today
    . IMHO, one can not (yet) invest in bond funds that will allow for the steady eddy yield and pricing from the days of yesteryear; to take one's investment into the future without a care and the feeling of protection against the nasty's. Keeping in mind, that as long as there are buyers, don't be concerned with the yield; as your pricing/capital appreciation will out perform the yield expected.
    My own question(s) to these type of bonds, is how long will purchases remain in place; IF the yields continue to trend to the negative zone??? Purchasers being the big investment houses, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and individuals, etc.
    With some of this in mind, this house has not been inclined to purchase investment grade bond fund(s) for any sake of yield; as this is third place in thought. First and second place belong to a cushion against the current political strains globally and what this may also bring for global equity(s). Yes, a protective place generating some yield and more so; since the mini melt in December of 2018, decent price appreciation. Early 2018 found a U.S. equity blip in February and a few rough patches until the mini melt in December. Early equity market tremors? I won't begin to suggest this knowledge; but money continues to run to IG bonds.
    IF U.S. yields continue downward for whatever reason(s), what are the impacts?
    --- CD's.....the folks who do not and/or will not invest in the markets, and maintain monies in CD's
    --- financial institutions.....will they be able to maintain a proper spread (deposits/loans) to obtain a profit?
    --- consumer loans.....mortgage, auto, etc.; would consumers take on too much cheap debt?
    --- corporate bond issuance..... more or too much debt, and for what purpose?
    --- private pension funding
    --- insurance company(s) products, including annuities
    and more.
    I remain with the thought, as from 2009; This Time Is Different, at least for my investing period.
    Your thoughts please.
    Thank you for allowing my self therapy. :)
    Catch
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Waver As Investors Hope For Rate Cuts
    FYI: Major U.S. stock indexes swung between small gains and losses Monday as investors looked ahead to meetings later this month where central bankers are expected to cut interest rates.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19%.
    Monday’s move puts a pause on major indexes’ advance after two consecutive weeks of gains for stocks. Analysts said there was little new information to drive shares Monday.
    Last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point next week. Lower interest rates tend to spur investors to buy riskier assets, such as stocks, over bonds, gold and other havens. This time is no different, with expectations of looser monetary policy contributing to most of the stock market’s gains this year, analysts have said.
    Still, there is disagreement over how much the Fed should cut rates, leaving the stock market potentially vulnerable if the Fed fails to enact a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.
    Treasury yields pared some of their gains after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that inflation expectations a year and three years from now fell in August.
    Rising yields helped lift the S&P 500’s financials sector, which was one of the biggest gainers Monday, rising 1.4%.
    Beyond Monday’s broad gains, some individual stocks outpaced the broader market. Shares of AT&T jumped 2.7% after the activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the company and released a letter to the board laying out a series of potential changes that it said could boost the stock.
    Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3%. Data released Monday showed German exports unexpectedly rose in July, a bright spot following a string of negative economic data from Europe’s biggest economy, though analysts said concerns remained that U.S.-China trade tensions could affect the German economy.
    In commodities, Brent crude oil rose about 1.8% to $62.64 a barrel after Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman appointed Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an experienced oil official and son of the country’s king, as head of the powerful energy ministry. Prince Abdulaziz is expected to continue OPEC’s efforts to bolster energy prices by cutting production.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-point-higher-as-investors-look-to-central-banks-for-stimulus-2019-09-09/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-tick-higher-on-china-stimulus-11568016549
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-08/asian-stocks-set-for-muted-start-to-the-week-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-extends-win-streak-5-big-stocks-rally/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/dow-futures-move-higher-investors-wake-to-new-chinese-exports-data.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/stimulus-hopes-buoy-wall-street-financials-lead-gains-idUSKCN1VU17Y
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/uk-bluechips-give-up-gains-as-sterling-strengthens-idUKKCN1VU0KU
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-close-down-as-london-lags-banks-shine-idUSKCN1VU0L6
    Asia:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/asia-markets-september-9-us-china-trade-china-economy-currencies.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/us-treasury-yields-higher-ahead-of-new-data.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/forex-markets-us-economic-data-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/gold-markets-monetary-policy-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
    @FD1000, you and Morningstar must have a different definition of maximum drawdown than me. -0.87% over the past three years?? I mean it declined 1.29% on just one day alone last November.
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Any chance that D&C will offer a money market fund?
    Don’t hold your breath waiting. Have seen no indication.
    On that question, not sure what their gig is. Seemingly, being the savvy investors they are, they’d rather folks park cash in DODIX. That bothers me a bit. However, DODIX is quite conservatively run - probably out only about 3 years on the maturity curve at present. I don’t doubt that it will beat any money market fund hands-down over 5 and 10 year periods. But shorter term, has the potential for a couple lousy (negative) years.
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    I was thinking you were going to say T Rowe Price. They are great!
    No argument from me on that!
    I’m probably rare in that I’ve never owned a Vanguard fund. Our workplace offered (initially) load-based Templeton and than later TRP as 403B options. Since the 90s TRP has managed about 50% of my funds.
    Using custodian-to-custodian transfers some money was moved to others. D&C has about 25% - another highly respected house. The remainder is divided between Invesco ($$ formerly with Oppenheimer) and Permanent Portfolio. Re Oppenheimer / Invesco - I’ll grade them C overall based mostly on higher fees. But they offer some niche funds I use that Price doesn’t.
    Price has always run a first-rate shop. Their problem today, IMHO, is too many funds. Obviously they’re fighting for market share. Geez - 25 years ago I might have named every fund in their stable and told you how it invested. Today that’s hopeless.
  • Paul Merriman: Why Do These Two Nearly Identical Fidelity Funds Have Such Different Performance?
    Thank you @msf
    From Mr. Merriman's web site:
    "There’s a lot of money to be made from financial newsletters that give investment advice. But the money comes from selling the newsletters, not from taking the advice.
    Literally anybody can start and publish an investment newsletter. The key to success is to have a period of successful predictions that can be promoted as if it’s a sign that the publisher has talent, insight and an accurate handle on future performance.
    You can claim almost anything
    Despite their slick appearance, many investment newsletters are run from home. It’s easy to start a newsletter. You don’t need a college degree. You don’t need a license. You don’t need a track record. You can claim almost anything you want to as long as you aren’t actually being paid to manage money."
    >>> Some of his above would suggest some amount of due diligence, a self code of discovery.
    NOTE: I'm surely not in an intellectual position to discredit his years of work and sharing of information; but disappointed with this current write. His newsletter is free, although one may suspect some form of monetizing his work. I'm not inclined to give my time to such an investigation.
    Mr. Merriman's web site
    Perhaps too much coffee, for me, this A.M.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Why My Bohemian Friend Hates How I Invest
    FYI: Six years ago, my life was fairly normal. I taught full-time at a high school. Most of my colleagues had similar interests and values. They shared teaching strategies and how to help kids. Most of them, politically, leaned to the left.
    Other jobs attract more right-leaning folk. That became apparent when I quit teaching and began to give investment presentations. Right wing capitalism has a lot of fans. People packed auditoriums to hear me speak about making money. But these people weren’t drawn to my handsome face or my colorful jokes. Instead, they came for the topic. They wanted to increase their wealth.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/why-my-bohemian-friend-hates-how-i-invest
  • bondy diversification
    just did a prelim check, LBNDX tracks PDVAX very closely over the years, slightly above, slightly below, depending on period; marginally superior as you note except oddly inferior @ 1y
    Lipper gives them each a 2 for preservation, otherwise identically rated except LA much cheaper ... so one might be able to infer that Pimco leverage accounts for the higher ER, while adding little or no value ?
  • Sharpie Makes Its Mark As A Geography Lesson
    Hi @Old_Joe et al
    I recall that Roy let this stand and stay in place at FundAlarm; as there were periods when he allowed song titles and lyric to be posted to reflect market overviews through this medium.
    The below lyric travels into my mind from various scenarios over the years; and is more so reflective with current political scenarios now.
    I suspect some of the word plays at the time had to with ongoing sloppy markets after the melt. Their were still enough investors, large and small who were still wondering where everything was going to land.
    As for today, this fits more closely with politics; from which the ramifications continue to have large impacts upon various investing market types.
    Perhaps I'm merely fitting the words to what only I see or feel. Have a go for yourself.
    Hell, I may be starting phase one of becoming senile.
    The lyric eventually repeats, but I have placed the entirety.
    Take care and good evening,
    Catch
    Stuck in the Middle With You
    Stealers Wheel, 1973, Jerry Rafferty (RIP)
    Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
    I got the feeling that something ain't right,
    I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
    And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
    Clowns to the left of me,
    Jokers to the right, here I am,
    Stuck in the middle with you
    Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
    And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
    It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
    Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
    Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
    Here I am, stuck in the middle with you
    Well you started out with nothing,
    And you're proud that you're a self made man,
    And your friends, they all come crawlin,
    Slap you on the back and say,
    Please, please
    Trying to make some sense of it all,
    But I can see that it makes no sense at all,
    Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,
    'Cause I don't think that I can take anymore
    Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
    Here I am, stuck in the middle with you
    Well you started out with nothing,
    And you're proud that you're a self made man,
    And your friends, they all come crawlin,
    Slap you on the back and say,
    Please, please
    Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
    I got the feeling that something ain't right,
    I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
    And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
    Clowns to the left of me,
    Jokers to the right, here I am,
    Stuck in the middle with you,
    Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
    Stuck in the middle with you, here I am stuck in the middle with you
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
    1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like Pets.com and
    Webvan. Van Wagoner , Turner Microcap Growth, Strong and Janus funds come to mind. Some of them ultimately got in trouble for juicing their new fund returns with more shares of these IPOs than other funds at the shop and not acknowledging that it was IPOs doing the heavy lifting and that once the funds grew in size the IPO effect wouldn’t last. In fact, many of those IPOs subsequently flamed out. In any case, times have changed and we no longer have a 1990s IPO market for new funds to benefit from.
    2. I am fairly certain those Kobren and Charles Schwab studies did not adjust for survivorship bias. I would have to check but I did write about them back then—favorably too I believe—and I recall no mention of survivor bias. Please provide any evidence of the new fund effect that adjusts for survivor bias today if you have it. I doubt there is any evidence for it as I see bad new funds liquidated every day. In fact, their liquidations are tracked here. Nor is this to say I am against new funds. But I think newness must be accompanied with additional quantitative and qualitative research, the kind David does on this site. Fees should be part of that research in my view, and there is far more evidence of fees importance to performance than the new fund effect.
    3. Think of the kind of fund this is and what it’s investing in—non-agency debt. That debt has in the past become extraordinarily illiquid during times of market stress. And funds that invested in it have been crushed due to illiquidity. I suggest MFOers look up the Regions Morgan Keegan funds if they doubt the risks of a liquidity crunch. Such a sector is not the best fit for a mutual fund that must provide daily liquidity in my view especially if the fund concentrates in that sector to a high degree over more liquid mortgage bonds. The sector meanwhile is shrinking each year.
    4. At $2 billion in assets this fund collects $30 million in fees a year. At $3 billion it collects $45 million. The team required to investigate this one sector of the market must be highly compensated with that fee. Are they earning it with good Individual security selection or by concentrating in the riskiest sectors of the mortgage market more so than their lower cost peers. Regions Morgan Keegan once had a great record too before the housing bust by taking such risks.
    5. In a highly illiquid sector money managers often use a pricing system called fair value for estimating securities value in the portfolio. That can make the fund seem a lot more stable than it actually is and hides risk. It also creates an incentive for fraud in how securities prices are marked.
    #1 pretty much sums it up and very close to what I wrote in my book. Half my profits in 98 and 99 came from the new fund effect in tech and small cap growth because of allotments to hot IPOs. I can think of a few new funds from Janus and INVESCO that were up 15% to 25% in a month. Even used Strong’s new high yield fund to my advantage in 96 where it beat not only all its peers but the S&P. I also exploited datelining - probably the closest thing to a free lunch you could ever find on Wall Street. I make no bones about luck being on my side in the 90s. Funny thing about luck as I have also been lucky since 2000 too, especially the luckiest trade of my lifetime - junk bonds on 12/16/2008 when the Fed rang the loudest bell I have ever heard on Wall Street. Probably explains why The Luck Factor by Max Gunther is one of top three favorite books.
    As for IOFIX, I just think they are sitting on a gold mine in the legacy non agency rmbs they have remaining in their portfolio. Can’t think of any time since the Great Recession where there has been any illiquidity in those bonds. Can’t think of where there could be any wave of defaults from those legacy bonds issued between 04 and 07 especially from the equity that has now built up over the years by the homeowners behind such loans. But that is a story for another time. My main concern is IOFIX becomes a groupthink fund. I also worry what the managers do for an encore in the next couple years as the legacy market shrinks even further and they no longer have that to juice their returns. I am not wedded to IOFIX. If you read the archives you will see I went into junk bonds at the end of December but they petered out five months later and went back into other areas of Bondland.
  • How Many Mutual Funds Are Too Many?
    Extensive research shows that 99.6% of the time this topic is discussed on MFO a major recession starts within 36 hours.
    Thanks @Old_Joe ...... :)
    If I have time I’ll spend couple bucks and purchase the WSJ this is out of so can read it. My prejudice is showing through on this one, but for the life of me I’ve never been able to understand why the number of funds matters much to the average investor - as Dave Ramsey suggests. More ain’t better. If it were, than having 5 of Hussman’s would be better than owning one from T. Rowe.
    But it’s the final return that matters over time. So if you own 5 or 10 exceptional funds that march to different drummers over the short term but get the job done over 10, 15, 25 years, than why is that inferior to owning fewer? And this question seems to beg the larger question of what is the investor’s situation in life and what is he attempting to accomplish through his investments?
    Some folks have legit reasons to own a larger number of funds. Might have to do with estate planning, tax situation, what’s offered (now or previously) by their employer. Personally, I can’t come to grips with handing everything over to a single fund house. Would rather have a few different outfits managing my money. Now, the likelihood one of these guys will turn into idiots overnight or do something unscrupulous with my money is slight. But we don’t carry a life jacket in our boat expecting it to sink, or keep a fire extinguisher in our home expecting to ever use it.
    For those so moved, Google the subject. I’ll guarantee you’ll find 2 or 3 dozen articles on the question in rapid succession - a good many from intelligent sources. So, the question gets a lot of play for whatever reason.
  • M* Understanding American Funds' Equity Lineup: Text & Video Presentation
    We own, or have owned at various times, the following of Old-Skeets funds: ANCFX, CWGIX, AMCPX, ANWPX, SMCWX, ABALX, AMECX & CAIBX. Additionally, AHITX, ANEFX, TAFTX, & AMHIX.
    Very satisfied with American Funds overall. Investing with them for many years has helped to allow us to remain living in SF, and that's saying something.