@Starchild: It's me again. I pulled Dr. Madell's recommended funds form his recent newsletter. They are listed below for your review. It looks like VWIGX is his recommended international choice. You might wish to look at TBGVX as it is also on his short list. And, VTMGX looks interesting as well.
My Recommended Stock Funds:
-Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXMX)
-Vanguard Small Cap Growth Idx (VISGX)
-Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX)
-Vanguard Equity Income (VEIPX)
-Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX)
-Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
-Vanguard Growth Idx (VIGRX)
-Vanguard Pacific Index (VPACX)
-Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX)
-Vanguard Europe Idx (VEURX)
-Vanguard Emerging Markets Idx (VEIEX)
-Tweedy, Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
-Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv (VTSMX)
-Vanguard Developed Markets Idx Adm (VTMGX)
My Recommended Bond Funds:
-Vanguard California Interm-Term Tax-Exempt (VCAIX)
-PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX)
-Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX)
-Vanguard High Yield (VWEHX)
-Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX)
-PIMCO International Bond Adm (PFRAX)
-Vanguard Total International Bond Index (VTIBX)
Some Tips Form Skeet
You might wish to visit how much risk you have within your portfolio. I have seen, through the years, some of my buddies taking on too much risk in an attemp to meet targeted returns. Have you done a risk assessment of your portfolio? And, is it set to your tolerance? If in doubt then you might wish to do a risk profile on yourself. I have linked one below just in case it might interest you.
https://www.calcxml.com/do/inv08
In doing a look back into Dr. Madell's October 2018 newsletter below are his published model asset allocations.
Overall Allocations to Stocks, Bonds, and Cash
Recommended For Moderate Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 57% (57%)
Bonds 24 (25)
Cash 19 (18)
Recommended For Aggressive Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 73% (73%)
Bonds 14 (14)
Cash 13 (13)
Recommended For Conservative Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 20% (20%)
Bonds 35 (35)
Cash 45 (45)
While my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity might not be right for you it is what I have recently moved to being 70+ years in age and retired. This asset allocation affords me enough cash reserves should I need a cash infusion, enough income generation from my income area along with enough growth from my equity area to grow my principal over time. Generally, I take no more than one half (in dollars) of what my five year annual average returns have been. In this way principal grows over time. And, as my principal grows so do my distributions.
In addition, I'd do an Instant Xray of my portfolio before I add new positions and then with the proposed changes to make sure the changes reflect the way I want to head.
Morningstar's Instant Xray tool is linked below. In addition to looking at your portfolio as a whole you might wish to look at each fund in Xray to see how it is compiled. This should help in making better fit choices.
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolio.html?requestUrl=/RtPort/Free/InstantXRayDEntry.aspx?dt=0.7055475
Again, I wish you good investing in the years to come.
Old_Skeet

@Starchild: It's me again. I pulled Dr. Madell's recommended funds form his recent newsletter. They are listed below for your review. It looks like VWIGX is his recommended international choice. You might wish to look at TBGVX as it is also on his short list. And, VTMGX looks interesting as well.
My Recommended Stock Funds:
-Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXMX)
-Vanguard Small Cap Growth Idx (VISGX)
-Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX)
-Vanguard Equity Income (VEIPX)
-Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX)
-Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
-Vanguard Growth Idx (VIGRX)
-Vanguard Pacific Index (VPACX)
-Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX)
-Vanguard Europe Idx (VEURX)
-Vanguard Emerging Markets Idx (VEIEX)
-Tweedy, Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
-Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv (VTSMX)
-Vanguard Developed Markets Idx Adm (VTMGX)
My Recommended Bond Funds:
-Vanguard California Interm-Term Tax-Exempt (VCAIX)
-PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX)
-Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX)
-Vanguard High Yield (VWEHX)
-Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX)
-PIMCO International Bond Adm (PFRAX)
-Vanguard Total International Bond Index (VTIBX)
Some Tips Form Skeet
You might wish to visit how much risk you have within your portfolio. I have seen, through the years, some of my buddies taking on too much risk in an attemp to meet targeted returns. Have you done a risk assessment of your portfolio? And, is it set to your tolerance? If in doubt then you might wish to do a risk profile on yourself. I have linked one below just in case it might interest you.
https://www.calcxml.com/do/inv08
In doing a look back into Dr. Madell's October 2018 newsletter below are his published model asset allocations.
Overall Allocations to Stocks, Bonds, and Cash
Recommended For Moderate Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 57% (57%)
Bonds 24 (25)
Cash 19 (18)
Recommended For Aggressive Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 73% (73%)
Bonds 14 (14)
Cash 13 (13)
Recommended For Conservative Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 20% (20%)
Bonds 35 (35)
Cash 45 (45)
While my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity might not be right for you it is what I have recently moved to being 70+ years in age and retired. This asset allocation affords me enough cash reserves should I need a cash infusion, enough income generation from my income area along with enough growth from my equity area to grow my principal over time. Generally, I take no more than one half (in dollars) of what my five year annual average returns have been. In this way principal grows over time. And, as my principal grows so do my distributions.
In addition, I'd do an Instant Xray of my portfolio before I add new positions and then with the proposed changes to make sure the changes reflect the way I want to head.
Morningstar's Instant Xray tool is linked below. In addition to looking at your portfolio as a whole you might wish to look at each fund in Xray to see how it is compiled. This should help in making better fit choices.
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolio.html?requestUrl=/RtPort/Free/InstantXRayDEntry.aspx?dt=0.7055475
Again, I wish you good investing in the years to come.
Old_Skeet

Wow! Over the top help @ old_skeet. I really appreciate it and will take it all in.

FYI: Whenever I do a town hall about Social Security, one issue invariably rises to the top: cost-of-living adjustments (or COLAs).
Retirees across America consistently tell us that their annual COLAs simply are not adequate. And they have a reason to be concerned. Though the 2019 COLA is a decent 2.8%, these adjustments historically have not kept pace with seniors’ rising expenses. In fact, for three of the past 10 years there were no cost-of-living increases — zero. In 2017, the COLA was a scant 0.3% — or a meager $4 a month for the average beneficiary.
Simply put, retirees need a COLA that accurately reflects the effects of inflation on their cost of living. The current index, the CPI-W, is pegged to urban wage earners’ living expenses, and tends to underestimate what seniors spend on big ticket items like housing and medical care. By the same token, retirees purchase less gasoline than working-age Americans, even though the cost of gas figures prominently into the current inflation index. As the Center for Retirement Security explains, “In 2016, retirees received no COLA specifically because the cost of oil plummeted. The low cost of gasoline offset [actual inflation] in other areas.”
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/improved-social-security-cola-would-help-seniors-stay-ahead-of-inflation-2019-02-28/print

@Starchild: It's me again. I pulled Dr. Madell's recommended funds form his recent newsletter. They are listed below for your review. It looks like VWIGX is his recommended international choice. You might wish to look at TBGVX as it is also on his short list. And, VTMGX looks interesting as well.
My Recommended Stock Funds:
-Vanguard Extended Market Idx (VEXMX)
-Vanguard Small Cap Growth Idx (VISGX)
-Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX)
-Vanguard Equity Income (VEIPX)
-Vanguard Windsor II (VWNFX)
-Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
-Vanguard Growth Idx (VIGRX)
-Vanguard Pacific Index (VPACX)
-Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX)
-Vanguard Europe Idx (VEURX)
-Vanguard Emerging Markets Idx (VEIEX)
-Tweedy, Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
-Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv (VTSMX)
-Vanguard Developed Markets Idx Adm (VTMGX)
My Recommended Bond Funds:
-Vanguard California Interm-Term Tax-Exempt (VCAIX)
-PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX)
-Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX)
-Vanguard High Yield (VWEHX)
-Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX)
-PIMCO International Bond Adm (PFRAX)
-Vanguard Total International Bond Index (VTIBX)
Some Tips Form Skeet
You might wish to visit how much risk you have within your portfolio. I have seen, through the years, some of my buddies taking on too much risk in an attemp to meet targeted returns. Have you done a risk assessment of your portfolio? And, is it set to your tolerance? If in doubt then you might wish to do a risk profile on yourself. I have linked one below just in case it might interest you.
https://www.calcxml.com/do/inv08
In doing a look back into Dr. Madell's October 2018 newsletter below are his published model asset allocations.
Overall Allocations to Stocks, Bonds, and Cash
Recommended For Moderate Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 57% (57%)
Bonds 24 (25)
Cash 19 (18)
Recommended For Aggressive Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 73% (73%)
Bonds 14 (14)
Cash 13 (13)
Recommended For Conservative Risk Investors
Asset Current (Last Qtr.)
Stocks 20% (20%)
Bonds 35 (35)
Cash 45 (45)
While my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity might not be right for you it is what I have recently moved to being 70+ years in age and retired. This asset allocation affords me enough cash reserves should I need a cash infusion, enough income generation from my income area along with enough growth from my equity area to grow my principal over time. Generally, I take no more than one half (in dollars) of what my five year annual average returns have been. In this way principal grows over time. And, as my principal grows so do my distributions.
In addition, I'd do an Instant Xray of my portfolio before I add new positions and then with the proposed changes to make sure the changes reflect the way I want to head.
Morningstar's Instant Xray tool is linked below. In addition to looking at your portfolio as a whole you might wish to look at each fund in Xray to see how it is compiled. This should help in making better fit choices.
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolio.html?requestUrl=/RtPort/Free/InstantXRayDEntry.aspx?dt=0.7055475
Again, I wish you good investing in the years to come.
Old_Skeet

@Starchild: I have provided a link to Dr. Tom Madel's mutual fund newsletter. You can review current and past newsletters once you open the link. I'm sure, being a new investor, there is a weath of information contained in these newsletter from asset allocation models and recommended fund selections that will be of some benefit.
http://funds-newsletter.com
You might wish to give a shout out to @JoJo26 as she seems to be of the new school spirited type investor for her thoughts. In addition, perhaps @tmadell might have a thought or two for you. I'm of the old school type and invest the traditional way via broker and financial advisor.
I wish you the very best in the coming years with your investing endeavors.
Old_Skeet

Thanks Skeet! Much appreciated.

@Starchild: I have provided a link to Dr. Tom Madel's mutual fund newsletter. You can review current and past newsletters once you open the link. I'm sure, being a new investor, there is a weath of information contained in these newsletter from asset allocation models and recommended fund selections that will be of some benefit.
http://funds-newsletter.com
You might wish to give a shout out to @JoJo26 as she seems to be of the new school spirited type investor for her thoughts. In addition, perhaps @tmadell might have a thought or two for you. I'm of the old school type and invest the traditional way via broker and financial advisor.
I wish you the very best in the coming years with your investing endeavors.
Old_Skeet

I agree with the conclusion, but with little else here. Slott plays to his crowd: the government is bad, the government is out to get you, the government lies.
Look at the quote Gary gave (gov said SS would never be taxed). Here's what SSA says about that:

Originally, Social Security benefits were not taxable income. This was not, however, a provision of the law, nor anything that President Roosevelt did or could have "promised." It was the result of a series of administrative rulings issued by the Treasury Department in the early years of the program. ...
In 1983 Congress changed the law by specifically authorizing the taxation of Social Security benefits. This was part of the 1983 Amendments, and this law overrode the earlier administrative rulings from the Treasury Department.

I suspect Slott would be bringing up notch babies, except that nearly all of this part of his crowd has died off. (They'd be over 100 years old.)
He said that people who had already made Roth contributions would be grandfathered in. IMHO he's being too generous here. Previous contributions and previous earnings would be grandfathered in, but not people. Future earnings in Roths by people who already had Roths could be taxed easily.
The reasons why I believe that, and not what he described would be the worst case are twofold:
1 - Government honesty (seriously). Governments (federal, state, local) may individually tax the same income (e.g. fed and state tax the same W2 income), but a single government entity does not tax the same income twice. (The IRS may tax corp. earning and then tax dividends paid out of those earnings, but those are taxes levied on two different taxpayers, at two different levels.) Roth contributions have already been taxed as personal income; they will not be taxed again.
2 - Pragmatics. No one is required to maintain records of contributions or earnings in Roth IRAs (at least once the five year requirements have been met). So it would be difficult for the government to tax past earnings on contributions. It would be very easy for it to tax future earnings. Just change the law so that people (and financial institutions) are required to keep track of those earnings.

@Starchild: FWIW.
Since, the S&P 500 Index now derives better than 40% of it's earnings outside the US I use mostly global funds to gain additional foreign exposure. Please know that it has not always been this way since I became an investor some fifty years ago. So, to gain additional foreign exposure, years back, I used some global funds to offer me more foreign exposure. And, I still do today.
In the growth and income area of my portfolio my global equity sleeve consist of: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX and EADIX. All of these funds pay good dividends.
In the growth area of my portfolio my global growth sleeve consist of: ANWPX, NEWFX and SMCWX.
Then there are global allocation funds that can also provide both domestic and foreign exposure. I own a good number of hybrid type funds. Three of them found in the growth & income area of my portfolio in the global hybrid sleeve are CAIBX, TEQIX and TIBAX. All of these funds pay good dividends.
My thinking, today, is still to use global funds which allows the fund manager to be somewhat adaptive to the markets by leaning towards which are felt to be the better performers between domestic or foreign holdings while still holding some of each.
Most of the above funds I have owned for better than ten years with some more than twenty five.
Best of luck in your seach for an international or global fund that finds your fancy.

This is a big help @Old_Skeet, thanks for taking the time to help a newer investor. I don't really have the means to invest in so many offerings, but hoping to establish some type of fund or two that will act as a solid core with foreign exposure I can put money into when I can, at least for now. I will look into these suggestions. So far, I've been leaning towards VWIGX, Vangurd's int'l growth fund, that's been around a long time and seemingly consistent, with a good mix US/Foreign. Are any of these, or something else in line with this strategy? Or is the Vanguard a solid one for this in your mind?

Talked about Bob Evans as I remember they were over priced and didn't last long in our community. The menu was full of descriptive BS that made You feel like you were buying something special. Only thing special was the bill as I remember. About like Boston Market. Thaler's mutual fund 2 month's track record don't know about it. Will come back in 10 years and look at it.

@Starchild: FWIW.
Since, the S&P 500 Index now derives better than 40% of it's earnings outside the US I use mostly global funds to gain additional foreign exposure. Please know that it has not always been this way since I became an investor some fifty years ago. So, to gain additional foreign exposure, years back, I used some global funds to offer me more foreign exposure. And, I still do today. My thinking, today, is to still use global funds which allows the fund manager to be somewhat adaptive to the markets by leaning towards which are felt to be the better performers between domestic or foreign holdings while still holding some of each.
In the growth and income area of my portfolio my global equity sleeve consist of: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX and EADIX. All of these funds pay good dividends.
In the growth area of my portfolio my global growth sleeve consist of: ANWPX, NEWFX and SMCWX.
Then there are global allocation funds that can also provide both domestic and foreign exposure. I own a good number of hybrid type funds. Three of them found in the growth & income area of my portfolio in the global hybrid sleeve are CAIBX, TEQIX and TIBAX. All of these funds pay good dividends.
Most of the above funds I have owned for better than ten years with some more than twenty five.
Best of luck in your seach for an international or global fund that finds your fancy.

Well, international markets have not been great in the last few years and those active funds that kept more money in cash did better than the index fund. Index funds area almost always 100% invested.
If you prefer a little less volatile fund take at FMIJX.

What international or global funds do you have? That way perhaps the recommendations could be better tuned to your portfolio. You do not want too much overlap among funds.

My portfolio only contains VTIAX (Vanguard Int'l Total Market), and at a small %, but I've not been exactly thrilled with its performance over the years I've had it, and considering active as a better strategy for foreign. Thanks again for your help.

@MikeW: The barometer follows the S&P 500 Index. Another means that I use to find value is to see how far below a fund is trading form it's 52 week high. Take my two emerging market funds. DWGAX is off its 52 week high by about 12% while NEWFX is off its 52 week high by about 8%. With this, I'm finding more value in DWGAX than NEWFX. One of my investment strategies through the years has been to buy some in my most out of favor holdings in belief that they will again find favor with investors. Most of the time they do. And, for me, this has worked better through the years than momentum based strategies (buying what is hot and in favor).

You are correct in your description of the AF management approach, with different entities looking at different "sleeves". That's not really a "committee", as you rightly observe. However, if you actually look at the list of the various names of these Portfolio Managers, it's apparent that it is hardly a so-called "star system" either. That said, their management style has worked just fine for us.
A significant portion of our AF assets are in IRA accounts. AF considers the total of all account assets, IRA or other, in the determination of their load schedule, which helps greatly in achieving no-load status. Additionally, some load funds also impose a load on shares purchased through dividend reinvestment. American Funds did not do that- all dividend reinvestment was always at NAV. Additionally, if one sold a fund, transferring the proceeds to their MMKT fund, and then later redeployed those proceeds for a fund purchase there was no load on that purchase either. These details are quite important in comparing one "load fund" company against another.
Indexing was not an option in the years when we were building the majority of our asset base. I do use some indexing with our Schwab account, which was established for additional asset flexibility well after that major part of our asset building was accomplished.

He may be right. Blackrock’s Larry Fink recently appeared on CNBC and mentioned “The Law of Unintended Consequences”. If, as appears likely, the China trade deal improves the U.S./ China trade balance (by their buying more U.S. products), China will need to unload part of their huge slug of U.S. Treasuries to pay for the increased imports. Less demand from China for U.S, Treasuries spells higher interest rates in order to attract new buyers.
I also continue to believe we’re going to see a ramp-up in inflation. Folks forget that it’s cumulative. So get into a 3+% annual and you’re looking at a 10% increase in prices over just 3 years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/24/larry-fink-on-us-china-trade.html

Thank you @Old_Skeet for drilling down more into your methodology. Your definition of overbought largely coincides with that of Investopedia - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asp. While valuation is mentioned by both of you, it appears to be a largely inferential determination based on recent market price behavior: ie: S&P falls 12% over 2 months and becomes oversold. Than it rises 10% over 2 months and becomes overbought. Inferentially one might conclude that the underlying assets had greater intrinsic value when the market was depressed than after it became elevated. That sounds to me very much like a technical indicator based largely on recent market price trend lines.
I’ll agree that’s one good way to describe near-term conditions and to time one’s entry and exit points if one is a market trader. But it doesn’t help much with understanding valuations over longer periods (5, 10, 20 years). You said: “... markets can stay overbought and oversold for extended periods of time.” That may possibly be. However, if it were really the case there would seldom be a need to change the barometer from oversold to overbought within a few weeks’ or months’ time. So I’d modify that statement to read: “... markets can stay overvalued and undervalued for extended periods of time“.
What’s the difference? Valuations are based on the intrinsic worth of the individual companies within the index. While complex, that involves appraising different attributes like: underlying assets, debt levels, bond ratings, profit margins, P/E ratios, pending litigation, competitive market advantages and long term growth prospects. In a nutshell: Valuation is much harder to measure than a temporary overbought or oversold condition based largely on a 3-6 month chart.
Warren Buffet was on CNBC this morning and so is on my mind. I do feel his successful methodology leans very heavily towards the “valuation” end of the spectrum and much less so towards temporary technical overbought / underbought nomenclatures.
There are many successful ways to invest. Thanks for your insights into your barometer and how you apply it.

FYI: YOU KNOW HOW certain things people say stick in your mind. Often, it’s a hurtful insult. But for me, the words I can’t forget are, “You’re wealthy.”
I live in a 90-year-old house on a small lot, my wife’s car is 12 years old, our television is 10 years old and the last time I bought a new suit was a dozen years ago. Okay, it’s true, I don’t wear suits very often these days.
Still, until someone uttered those two words to me, I’d never thought of myself as wealthy. But the data shows I am. Who knew?
Regards,
Ted
https://humbledollar.com/2019/02/dont-call-me-that/

Lost my enthusiasm for ETF's years ago, thinly traded and too much manipulation involved.

Hi @hank: Thank you for your inquiry about Old_Skeet's investment mythology.
Here is the defination of overbought. The term a stock is "overbought" when the stock reaches a point in trading where technical indicators suggest the next price move of the stock will be down. When a stock's price has risen too far, too fast and it is beginning to look expensive to investors, it is overbought.
While I'm not an analyst and just a retail investor much like others on the board I have been working on someting to measures market value. Through my fifty plus years of investing I developed my barometer to aid me in determining better times to add new money to my portfolio. This lead me to develope a market barometer to help measue value in the S&P 500 Index. With this, I came up with three main feeds in my barometer plus some minor feeds. The barometer's three main feeds are a breadth feed, an earnings feed and a technical score feed. These three feeds are scaled and when combined produce a barometric number. The barometric number is then scaled into extremely overbought, overbought, overvalued, fair value, undervalued, oversold, and extremely oversold scalings. When looking for direction I often use the minor feeds to help determine this. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. At the first of the year the barometer had a reading of 183 which based upon the barometer metrics indicated the Index was extemely oversold. Presently, the barometer reading of 133 indicates that the Index is extremely overbought. So, in two months the Index has moved from extremely oversold to extremely overbought. Remember, at the end of last year many hedge funds were closing and sold into a vaccum on Christmas Eve. This selling pressure drove stock prices extremely low. Also, the FOMC had been on an interest rate increase campaign plus a number of other market distractors were taking place as well. This selling pressure created an extremely oversold market. As we have now progressed into the new year there has been good investor interest in stocks and their prices have been driven upward through some furrious buying to the point that they are now reaching a buying climax and by the metrics of the barometer become extremely overbought.
As you know (or should know) markets can stay overbought and oversold for extended periods of time. However, for the past couple of weeks I have detected a softening in the money flow. This means, to me, investors have been booking some profit. In addition, there seems to be a good number of companies recently reporting a decline in their earnings and anticipated revenue growth. Will it be enough for the Index to pull back? Perhaps. So, unless there is some news event that would entergize the market and encourage investors to pay up even more for stocks I'm following the barometer reading and looking for a nearterm pullback.
Just because I'm looking for a pullback does not mean that it will take place. But, until I see some higher barometer readings (indicating there is more investment value in the Index) I'm not putting any new money to work at this time. And, since I have no open special investment positions (spiffs) I'm not selling at this time either as the barometer generally drives my purchase and selling of spiffs. If I had any spiffs in play I'd have already closed them.
I hope this helps you have a better understanding of Old_Skeet's investment mythology because my market barometer has help me have a better understaning of stock market movements. With this, I'm posting this for information purposes only. It is not meant (or should not be taken) as investment advice.

Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 133 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely overbought based upon the metrics of the barometer.

Thanks @Old_Skeet for your discussion of how you are positioned.
- I’m curious what you believe an “overbought” reading for the S&P implies for whatever action(s) one should take? I realize you are not offering investment advice, but it still leaves open the question of what an overbought reading might suggest the investor should do? Some obvious choices are: (1) Ignore the overbought reading and stay put, (2) move some or all of the overbought asset to cash, (3) move some or all of that overbought asset into a different asset - perhaps one having a reading of “underbought”.
- Are your metrics based primarily on valuations or on technicals? Perhaps a 50/50 slice of each?
- While it might be discouraging to be buying into an overbought market, a really long time horizon helps. Had you poured all your $$ into the S&P when it was arguably overbought in the 1997-98 period, I believe you would still be very happy with your return today, some 20 years later. :)
Appreciate any thoughts.

If you compare AUEIX to BRK.B they are pretty close over the six years AUEIX has been in existence. But what's the point? If you want to invest like Warren, invest with Warren. I doubt the investment philosophy will change once even after the dies or retires.There has been little turnover in the top positions at Berkshire in the last ten years and the key people have been there for decades.