What's the thinking behind the list of "Top Emerging Market Funds To Buy"?
It seems this is the top half (10/21) of US News' list of Emerging Markets Bond funds.
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/emerging-markets-bond
US News' rankings don't represent buy recommendations. They're just aggregations of five other sources of rankings ("Morningstar, Lipper, Zacks, TheStreet.com, and CFRA") , where those other rankings likewise don't represent buy recommendations.
https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/investing/articles/2010/02/23/about-the-us-news-mutual-fund-score
For example, for M*, US News links to M*'s star rating methodology. The star ratings are retrospective. In contrast, M*'s analyst ratings are intended to be used prospectively. But those aren't the ratings that US News is looking at.
With respect to funds that invest primarily in emerging market bonds, how about TGBAX? Aside from cash and short term (9 month or shorter) holdings in Treasuries, virtually all of this fund's bond holdings are in EM bonds (per semi-annual statement), and AFAIK have been for several years.
It has beaten all the funds listed over the past year (1.81%). It sports an ER (0.71%) that's within one basis point of the cheapest fund posted.
From the ETF column, we see that at least Jeff Reeves over at US News likes the idea of hedging yens and Euros. Now if one doesn't like having exposure to these currencies, why stop at neutral? That's Hassenstab's thinking (TGBAX) as well. "We also continued to hold net-negative positions in the euro and Japanese yen as hedges against a broadly strengthening US dollar..."
Semiannual report, June 30, 2018.

So, this time is different still applies, yes?
One may diversify to a point of a wash of profits potential.
Although it appears that the "save the markets" QE program saved our financial butts (U.S.) for the time being has worked......the price for this may have to be paid again.
The U.S. still remains the front runner in the financial turd pile.
The below chart has only a few non-U.S. choices. DXJ being the only close match for returns over the past 4 years. A longer time frame chart would indicate better performance for the U.S. equity market against others.
DXJ has much of its stimulus/growth from the Bank of Japan and its large ownership of Japanese equity sectors.
Wishing the best, to those, in choosing where to diversify globally for the positive benefit of the portfolio.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IXUS,IEUR,DXJ,FNMIX&p=6&O=011000
NEW !!! This WSJ article did open w/o subscription.........don't know how you'll do with this. NOPE.......won't open again. The link line tells much of the story for BOJ and its involvement with their marketplace.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japans-bond-and-stock-holdings-top-100-of-gdp-1542086889

FYI: This week the White House press secretary tweeted out a doctored video of an alleged assault on an intern by a journalist in order to change the narrative from that day’s scandal du jour. Making an enemy of the free press seems to be one of the primary aims of this administration. By casting doubt on anything and everything, the President and his policies get an unlimited free pass. This tactic has been called “gaslighting” and it’s something that has been a truly destabilizing force in American politics over the last few years.
Regards,
Ted
https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/11/11/my-favorite-tax/

FYI:
Regards,Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Ray Dalio, who is founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. Dalio has been a global macro investor for more than 45 years, having started Bridgewater out of a two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975. He is known for the practical yet unconventional theory of economics he spells out in his video series "How the Economic Machine Works," and is the author of the New York Times bestseller "Principles: Life and Work." His newest book, "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises," was published this month.
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-11-08/ray-dalio-discusses-major-financial-crises-podcast-jo96qfgi

FYI: There seems to be no shortage of worries to keep a chief investment officer up at night. Yet, when asked for a quick take on the fixed-income market, Ken Taubes, 60, offers some consolation. “I actually think we’re getting back to a more normal economy, at least in the U.S.,” he says. “Even if the politics seem abnormal.”
The question that has for years been weighing on investors—how bond markets would react to rising interest rates—has largely been answered. “Most of the damage has been done, or it has been priced in,” says Taubes, who has managed the $5 billion Pioneer Bond fund (ticker: PIOBX) for the past 20 years. The fund has returned an average of 5.4% a year over the past decade, better than more than 80% of the Morningstar intermediate bond category; along with its peers and the benchmark, the fund is down 2.4% so far in 2018.
Regards,
Ted
M* Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PIOBX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/piobx
PIOBX Is Rand #22 In The (IB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/intermediate-term-bond/pioneer-bond-fund/piobx

I believe America will face a recession within 1-2 year and it wiil be severe one after 10 years of bull market. Based on previous experience EM and China will not be doing well at that time. It makes sense to postpone buying EM till after the recession.

@Catch22- Well, as a (half) Italian veteran, I must admit that I'm pretty confused by all of this. It was especially irksome when I had to go to work on Veteran's Day, while my totally non-veteran wife got the day off. Then again, after teaching for 35 years in the SF Public School "system", perhaps she deserves to be considered an honorary veteran.

Hi all, One more question. Sorry. At this point in my life, I am more worried about downside protection vs. upside. As a result, I own the following funds with large allocation to cash: FPA Crescent, FPA International value, IVA worldwide, Pinnacle value, Artisan international value and Fairholme (please don't laugh). Yes, I am (and have been) overweight value which has not paid off in the past 9 years (just an FYI, not a complaint). In addition to the above reason, I bought these funds as I turned cautious on the market when the S&P hit 1500 a while ago and Mr. Grantham (GMO) warned of a bubble (boy was Mr. Grantham WRONG/EARLY as the S&P went ahead and almost doubled). Here is my question. On the one hand these funds could let you sleep at night. However, that comes at a price (sometimes heavy price) as they all charge fees above 1% (1.44% in the case of pinnacle value). Sometimes I wonder if it is better to sit in cash instead. Although I am hoping that the managers can buy at the right price in the case of a downturn (no guarantees). Wondering what your thoughts are. In hindsight, now might be a good time to pile in these funds (not a few years ago).

Ouch! Parnassus has had huge distributions for two years in a row now.

No problem if in an IRA.

@Ted: Thanks much for all the post you have made here at MFO and FundAlarm. I found a good number of them to be very beneficial. Even though you are going to retire from being active in the markets I hope you will continue to post. Wishing you the very best in the coming years. Cordially, Old_Skeet

Hi @Mark
Reminds of a company I worked for, for a number of years. The company always observed Columbus Day as a paid holiday, but not Veteran's Day. Over 4 different years I submitted a paper request to change this policy going forward. My last request became totally to the absurd side of life in a final attempt to attach more attention to the situation ....."As there are more military veterans, versus those of Italian heritage; among the 1,000's of employees, I humbly request that this holiday observance day be changed."
'Course, the change never took place.
Take care,
Catch

Ouch! Parnassus has had huge distributions for two years in a row now.

@MFO Members: Litman Gregory has used the well known multi-manager theme for years, its nothing more than a marketing ploy with less that stellar performance numbers.
Regard,
Ted

FYI: After being locked out of power for the past two years, Democrats won a seat at the table in the midterm elections by taking control of the House of Representatives.
But what should the new Democratic majority focus on? During the past few years, I have been writing about middle-of-the-road issues where there are signs of consensus -- issues with significant economic and market implications that make good policy for the entire country.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-07/four-agenda-items-new-congress-should-embrace

FYI: After years of underperforming large company stocks, small companies and mid-caps have made a comeback this year. And Lamar Villere, who co-manages the Villere Balanced Fund, thinks the stage is set for these smaller names to assume a market leadership position in the years to come.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-next-act-for-small-caps-41495.html?print
M* Snapshot VILLX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VILLX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot VILLX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/villx
VILLX Is Ranked #22 In The (A70/85E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-70-to-85-equity/villere-balanced-fund/villx

FYI: Kathleen tied the again—at age 71. Four years into widowhood, I met Charlie online. Also widowed, he and I began dating cautiously, each respectful of our late spouses and those marriages, as well as our adult children and grandchildren.
Regards,
Ted

@crash
I was expecting a nice gain for PRWCX that day as well and was even in denial for awhile that evening thinking the NAV had not been updated yet. :) Once reality set in I took comfort in knowing how much PRWCX had killed it over the past 12 years of our being shareholders of the fund. Every actively managed fund will have a day where it is out of step with the market. Otherwise, it's an index fund.

Hi @AndyJ
Thank you for the reference (St. Louis Fed.), and @David_Snowball for the Leuthold "info" and posting same.
The "liquidity" .................an area I attempt to ascertain and distinguish from other items within the financial world.
We investors live within a financial world; were aside from a boatload of money sloshing about in places known and unknown to us; must also have a full faith in the system that the quality of money between/among parties does not fall apart and become a problem of liquidity. My "investors" reference is not just related to the folks here; but must also include most of the big kids, too. They are subject to having their investment pants pulled down, too.
The full faith in the system is very critical, IMHO; and as we have witnessed in the past, can develop flaws and cracks from real reasons which then may begin a massive lost of faith that monetary functions can be maintained in some form of civil fashion and not cause great stress to the system.
Indebtedness is global; but relative to this country, as you noted; the debt piles are so large from a corporate measure, and the debt pile continues down into the public sector.
One example, the auto companies, in their advertising; do everything possible to pull in the "sub-prime" customer. Hey, folks; we can help you afford that $55k truck you're wanting. Okay, this will end well, eh? Too many in our society have no mental discipline for a budget and the spending involved with same. A recent report indicates the following for the regular folks:
---average American credit card debt = $6,375, average household = $17,000 and average annual credit card interest = $1,300.
None of this bodes well at some point down the road.
I continue to watch the bond side of money for cracks in the system, as I feel this could be the problem area that places cracks into the equity side.
Sadly, I/we are running out of time at this household; as we've been at this investment party for 40 years. We got "lucky" leaving the party early in 2008 while there were still chairs available before the music stopped. I'm not so sure we can be "lucky" twice in such a short time frame.
The rough part will be leaving a passion and breaking a habit; as well as deciding where to park the money in a hands off mode.
Lastly, @AndyJ ; have you anything else in particular that you watch for cracks and stress in the world of bonds and debt? Any reference links would be most appreciated. Thank you.
Take care,
Catch

The folks at the Leuthold Group have an almost-daily subscriber newsletter that discusses their most recent research and, occasionally, how they're positioning their fund portfolios.
Today's note might have been titled, "we've seen this picture before."

Today’s backdrop from an economic, liquidity, and technical perspective is very reminiscent of all three of those prior tops (1990, 2000, 2007) in ways that are too numerous to cover here. But one that’s especially worrisome is the blowout in spreads on low- grade corporate bonds. The yield gap between Moody’s BAA corporates and the 10-year Treasury yield is up about 50 basis points since the January stock market high, poking above the 2% level that preceded several U.S. recessions. Note the market tops of 2000 and 2007 featured similar patterns of credit deterioration just as the stock market was issuing the “all-clear” signal by breaking above its pre-correction highs. Credit patterns did not show similar deterioration leading into the 1990 bull market top; even the “bond guys” sometimes get it wrong. But we are not inclined to bet against their message here.Stay defensive.

They reported earlier this week that their flagship Leuthold Core Fund (LCORX) had moved to its portfolio to the most defensive positioning permitted by prospectus. I suspect their ongoing concern about the market's health is reflected in the fund's changing beta values. Over the past three years, beta has been about .60 but over the past 10 and 15 year periods they've allowed it to live above 1.00.
David

I wondered how a manager would have to pay out so much in distributions. The answer is that the rats have been abandoning ship. A glance at the Premium portfolio holdings tab shows that Rolfe has been selling from every single position in America's best growth stocks. And M* says to stick with him! A one star, bronze rated fund is now on sale.

M* was totally behind Arnott and PAUIX for years too, as I recall. Even as PAUIX and its 20% short SPX position dragged the fund lower and lower during the 'bull' market of the past 10 years, they kept saying it was a good fund and praising his discipline. Puh-lease.
M* stars, picks, and recommendations are just noise in the machine, at least to me. Some useful nuggets in the analyst reports from time to time, but I don't pay any attention to their star ratings or their (or anyone's) list of stocks-to-buy-now, stocks-that-are-undervalued, etc....