I do find these Johnny-Come-Lately pieces advising to index and keep it simple nine years into a bull market a little suspect. Such a piece would be far more interesting and provocative in June of 2009 instead of 2018.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
Business is full of acronyms, some better than others. A favorite of mine is KISS — Keep It Simple, Stupid, which has surprising relevance when it comes to wealth management secrets.
And that’s the explanation, in fittingly modest Midwestern terms, that we get from the manager of the equally modest endowment of Carthage College in Kenosha, Wis.
In the 10 years ending June 2017, that manager — a former beer company executive named Bill Abt — simply slayed the big, fancy endowments, including Harvard.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wealth-management-secrets-that-beat-the-ivy-league-2018-06-05/print

@Old_Skeet Many years ago, I thought PIMCO was an overall good fund house and I would "shop" there for new and exciting products, much like I would at the grocery store.
I got burned by many PIMCO funds including PCLDX, managed futures and Rob Arnott funds. In all fairness, PONAX was a good find which I still hold, but I no longer go "shopping" at PIMCO. PIMCO was mostly the fund house that convinced me to go with a modified 4 fund portfolio.

For years I have fearfully held PDI, PTY, and PCI, all of which are regularly debunked for high premia --- fwiw. (I guess PCI less than the others.) PDI and to a lesser extent PTY have had spectacular results.

@Maurice: my statement came from Waggoner’s article that lead off this discussion. For my part, I don’t think I have been rewarded for the risk taken in foreign securities since EMs went nuts in 2007. 2017 was a decent year for international in general, but the most generous thing I could say about maintaining a healthy allocation to foreign stocks in the intervening 10 years is that I was “early.”

David provides an interesting profile of Centaur Total Return (TILDX). The returns, risk-adjusted, are enticing; for my part, I avoid funds with ruinous ER's (2.10%) and high turnover ratios (over 100%). This fund has saddled owners in taxable accounts with huge short-term capital gains distributions in recent years. Last year's total distribution was $1.48 at NAV of $12.90, for example. Maybe other prospective customers have seen the same drawbacks as they have stayed away.

My point about the difference between holding a successful global fund and a pure foreign fund may have been expressed with too much understatement. My point was that there are several large-cap growth global funds that have thrived recently; they hold FAANG stocks and Chinese internet companies. No manager in this category has done better than Kristian Heugh of MS. It's worth noting that his foreign fund also relies on the same type of stocks that have fueled the global fund's rise. As a shareholder, I am aware that they will not provide any diversification when LCG stocks tank. The original linked article points out that US investors saw no benefit to holding LC foreign stocks over the past 10 years, with the exception of a few funds, namely Kristian Heugh's. I must say I am skeptical of putting new money into the category, but it's hard to argue with Heugh's success since 2008.

Hi @BenWP,
Thanks for making comment on taking profits in commodities.
I have noticed that commodities have drifted downward as we now start to move into summer which I felt they would. However, they have from what I have observed in the past start to trend back upwards come fall. I'm still with my commodity position (PCLAX) but I can also understand you booking your profits. I'm pretty close to rounding out my commodity position and will complete it sometime during the summer months while they are soft thinking good times will be hear again come fall. Also, once commodities start their run (which I feel they have) I have also noticed that they do this for a good number of years.
We'll see if this happens since they are coming off their lows. I too, have been wrong before. However, I am still up about 8% this year alone in my commodity strategy fund which I started buying this past fall (2017). I'm also hoping I stay net positive in it through the summer.

The fact that Gross did better at PIMCO may relate to having a better research base at PIMCO than at Janus (as another poster already alluded to). “One-man bands” are more likely to run hot and cold. No? I think we underestimate the contribution the entire operation (multiple research capabilities and analytical specialists) contributes. Sure, a single person can hit home runs for a while. But likely the law of averages catches up and he’ll pay for that with some bad years. Not to rag on John Hussman, but I’ve always wondered how deep his supporting team runs? Compare that to an outfit like T. Rowe Price which is extremely deep.
While “bonds” are often perceived as “safer” or more conservative than stocks - when you get into derivatives, playing one currency against another, short selling or zero coupon bonds a lot of bad things can happen.
Additional thought: Near everybody and his brother have been expecting the 10-20 year interest rate cycle to reverse. So, it’s natural that fund managers (and investors) might look for ways to make money in a rising interest rate environment. Unfortunately, doing so involves additional risks,

FYI: Charley Lau is widely respected in baseball circles as one of the greatest hitting coaches in the history of Major League Baseball.
His book, The Art of Hitting .300, is regarded as one of the best instructional guides into the science behind a good swing.
Here’s the problem — Lau never hit .300 in a single season during his years as a professional baseball player. In fact, his career batting average was just .255.
Experience can help in certain areas but it’s often overrated in terms of separating the winners from the losers.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/05/experience-is-overrated/

JUCIX is down -5.60% YTD. Not good. 100th percentile YTD, 99th for 1 year and 89th for 3 years. Not good at all.

@Old_Joe,
What you say is true re splinter parties. Heck, I had professors 50 years ago using Italy in class as a “model” of a failed (or failing) democracy due to the splintered approach to governing. The reasons it was so splintered were unclear to me at the time, and you’ve shed some bright light on them.
However, the immigration thing is now tearing several countries apart. Moderates like Merkel in Germany are facing increasingly fierce opposition from right wingers using the issue to rouse public sentiment. Some of the more moderate leaders in Europe embrace a humanitarian approach and have tried to accept a certain numbers of immigrants under a shared quota system. But they’re an easy target for the anti-immigrant forces.
Here’s one ya really ought to take a look at re Sebastian Kurtz in Austria. Ring any bells?
“Make Austria Great Again” - http://www.dw.com/en/make-austria-great-again-the-rapid-rise-of-sebastian-kurz/a-40313720

Unfortunately, they sold near the bottom but it could get worse. If I was a WF customer, I would have switched banks a long time ago.

Yeah. I was railing against them holding it like 2 years ago, and ended up selling on principle and moving into TWEIX. I'm not an 'ethical' or 'social' investor but given Parnassus' investment strategy/philosophy they should have dumped it MUCH MUCH sooner than they did. (They were quite nice when I called them about it, I might add.)
The fund now looks quite nice, imo, and has never fallen off my 'attractive' list ..... after this news, I may switch back to it in my Roth.

Looks like they finally cut Wells Fargo from its otherwise excellent holdings recently -- which now (on principle) puts the fund back 'in play' for me both in taxable and retirement accounts I used to hold it in my Roth, but swapped it for TWEIX a few years ago.
From their 3/31 commentary...
The Fund remains underweight financial services because most companies offer inadequate upside potential at current valuations. That said, proceeds from the Wells Fargo sale were invested into two competitively advantaged financial institutions. The first is American Express, the world’s largest card issuer by purchase volume. American Express has built a global payments network that generates high returns on equity and maintains its prestigious brand through its best-in-class customer service, innovative digital platform and strong security.
First Republic, a private bank focused on attractive markets, such as San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles and Boston, was the Fund’s second addition. The bank’s excellent customer service attracts affluent individuals and successful small businesses, which leads to outsized loan growth with pristine credit quality. First Republic’s recent rollout of an innovative student loan refinancing program should attract the next generation of affluent customers and accelerate the bank’s growth.

Gold has been in a horrendous bear market from 2011 to 2015, and all that selling is behind us. So I don’t think there is a lot of selling pressure, and I think the downside risk is very minimal because we’ve been through that bear market.
Huh? Forget Secretary of Education, I want this guys job. And also the job of the Barron's interviewer. Why isn't second question WTF something going down suddenly will go up?
Oh wait...this is why...part 2 of the answer convenient before immediately going into discussing the holdings.

Secondly, I think things are changing that favor gold. We are seeing elevated levels of geopolitical risk, a lot of uncertainty around the Trump presidency, and more recently there are early worries of inflationary pressures. ... blah, blah, blah...
Inflationary pressures. So Gold will return how much over next 5 years?
In the next year or two, we are going to be faced with an economic downturn and probably a general stock market downturn that will bring out a lot of the warts in the financial system—and that could propel gold much higher.
We have a rising rate environment which should put a floor under the dollar. How's that for ANALysis. Then WTF should Gold skyrocket?
Seriously, how do I find period of sustained downturn against how Gold did well AND also when Interest Rates are rising?

Not to belabor the point, but here’s what Ted quoted in his OP:
“FYI: t’s often tempting for mutual fund investors to buy whatever has been doing well recently and to avoid funds that have lost money or lagged the market. Almost inevitably, funds that go on a hot streak attract lots of new assets, while investors tend to flee from funds going through a slump.”
I got the idea from @Ted’s blurb that he sees a contrarian fund as one that has been experiencing a slump - likely a prolonged one. It would seem to strain credulity to think a fund manager could be turning out 10% annual returns over a full decade while most investors were avoiding his fund or avoiding the same investments he holds. Also, why would investors avoid a fund with that fine a record? It’s better than PRWCX generated over the last decade (9.14%) And folks have been clamoring for ways to get into that one - despite Price’s having shut the door to new investors years ago.
@MikeM, Thanks for the response. The gold fund I cited wasn’t a good example. Best I could offer up. The last real contrarian fund I owned was HSGFX. We both know how that one worked out. Yes - I’m a certified contrarian. :)
@slick, Thanks for the thoughtful response. Good points - although I think MikeM nailed it pretty well with the term “deep value.” Sounds like a great manager and fund. Hope you continue to prosper from it.

@hank,
Thanks for the question.
I hope all is well with you and your family.
Years back before I developed my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system I cut my stock allocation by about 5% during the summer months. And, come fall I'd overweight it. Today, I let the matrix be my guide (along with a few other indicators) in setting my equity allocation weighting within my portfolio.
I'll explain.
Currently, my equity weighting is around 52% to 53% of my portfolio with the high range being 60% and the low range being 40%. Generally, I move between these percentages (45% to 55%). The movement of the barometer reading drives the equity weighting matrix's suggested portfolio's equity allocation. Should stocks go soft during the summer I look for the barometer to key on this softness thus raising the suggested equity allocation in the matrix. As of now, I'm not reducing my equity allocation because it is already inline with what the matrix is calling for. It is indeed possible I will add to my equity allocation later in the summer should softness in stocks develop.
Remember, the three main feeds of the barometer are an earnings feed, a breadth feed, and a technical score feed. Although I will not be posting weekly barometer readings during the summer months should market conditions warrant I'll make a special post plus doing summer monthly postings.
Thanks again for the question.
Old_Skeet

I'm thinking stocks may start to slide next as we move into summer. Seems, a seasonal shift might be coming where stocks go soft during the summer months.

@Old_Skeet,
Speaking of “seasonal” - Are you still following the “Sell in May” mantra as, if memory serves, you have normally done in past years?
Thanks.

My submission as a contrarian fund fund that I own would be OPGSX because it’s off 7.5% YTD and has lost an average of 5.5% over 10 years. Clearly the thing it invests in (gold) has been out of favor with investors over the past decade and continues to be.

@Hank, YOU would be contrarian to buy a PM fund, not the fund itself. A contrarian fund I believe means the manger buys out of favor stocks - buy low. Not sure that is much different to a 'deep value' fund/manager. Just terms that identify the managers style I think.

Point of Order here ...
Wouldn’t a contrarian fund be something that hasn’t done well in recent years? I observe one mentioned in the thread as being contrarian that pulled a solid 10% over the past year and also 10% annually over the past decade. I hate to sound contrarian, but that one sounds more like an agreeable fund to me than a contrarian one. Maybe I just don’t understand contrarian.
Let’s see ... Located a definition in Collins Dictionary ... “A person who typically acts or thinks in a way contrary to popular or accepted opinion; specif., an investor who seeks to make a profit by acting in opposition to majority opinion, prevailing wisdom, etc., as by buying a company's stock when it is out of favor with the majority of investors”. https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/contrarian
My submission as a contrarian fund fund that I own would be OPGSX because it’s off 7.5% YTD and has lost an average of 5.5% over 10 years. Clearly the thing it invests in (gold) has been out of favor with investors over the past decade and continues to be.
Just saying ...