When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down Hello all,
I want to thank all that made comment in this thread. Again, if you came to it lookin for a scientific answer ... well, you are probally still looking.
I'm going to share a recent happening within my own portfolio that took place over the past couple of
years. I am sure most remember when engery stocks tanked and the sector pulled back. For me, this was a no brainer in essence I doubbled down since I felt the sector was oversold and increased my allocation in engery. Over the past couple of
years, thus far, this has been very rewarding. This action came more from art and my right side brain thinking than from science. Wisdom gained through investing forumlates on the right side of the brain to recgonize patterns. And, through the
years I have at times bought the laggard sectors when I felt they were oversold figuring they would rebound. Would I completely cut and run form a sector "never." But, I sure would reduce a sectors weighting within my own portfolio should if feel it was overbought under the axiom "Buy low ... Sell high." Currently, I am underweight technology and discretionary because I'm thinking they are overbought. Again, right side brain thinking.
So, yes ... I have to a certain extent done both ... "Double Down" and Cut and Run."
Thanks again to those that made comment (the wizzards) and also to those that just stopped by to read. I hope you were able to gain some knowledge from the boards wizzards. We don't all think alike but that is what makes investing so great for those that can master it.
Want to become a master investor (wizzard) click on the below link. Enjoy the reading.
http://mastersinvest.com/tutorialnavigation
When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down “Individuals make decisions every day with their emotions assisting their judgment. It is part of who we are as human beings. Unfortunately making emotional decisions can be a detriment in the investing world. Individual investors who let their emotions guide them have a much harder time investing than people who have found ways to master their emotional decision making. Some investors try to master their emotional involvement by using a rules-based system, others use computers to make the decisions for them, and still others invest in indexes through ETFs or mutual funds. There are many ways to remove the emotional component from investing, but most investors don’t realize that their emotions are the problem. You can read my post about fear and greed investing or investing is not gambling to learn more.”
The link MJG posted is an advertisement for Investment Advisory Group. The writer’s name is Kirk Chisholm. He’s employed by Investment Advisory Group. I’ve noted the qualifications he provided at bottom. No accredited instructions or degrees are listed. No reference to specialized training in either finance or psychology is indicated.
(1) Correlative statistics: The writer cites statistics showing a correlation between poor investment outcomes and frequency of trading (higher trading being associated with poorer performance). I dont think many would doubt that correlation. It’s pretty widely accepted.
(2) Assumptions The writer makes numerous assumptions about the psychology of different investors which (presumably) led to some engaging in higher than average trading. What are the writer’s qualifications re human psychology? It’s a big leap to go from the correlation between trading frequency and performance to the particular psychology which led to that. At that point you’re likely delving into problems like compulsive personalities, low educational attainment, delusional thinking - and quite possibly substance abuse, gambling addiction and dysfunctional families. I don’t know what leads some investors to trade so frequently. I don’t think the author knows either. I’d suggest the he and his firm stick to dispensing investment advice.
(3) Causal relationship - I don’t think he’s demonstrated that convincingly. It is equally possible that those who trade frequently are poor money managers to begin with and would still have found a way to lose money in the markets. Their heightened trading activity might be more a consequence of more serious underlying issues (including financial) rather than the cause of their predicament. So, was the frequent trading the cause of their problem or was it the result of other problems?
Author: Kirk Chisholm is a Wealth Manager and Principal at Innovative Advisory Group (IAG). His roles at IAG are co-chair of the Investment Committee and Head of the Traditional Investment Risk Management Group. His background and areas of focus are portfolio management and investment analysis in both the traditional and non-traditional investment markets.
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I liked this thread in general. To me it does not appear to be about frequent trading. I suspect Old Skeet was more interested in that 2, 3 or 5% of an investor’s decisions based on strong conviction for / against a particular opportunity. “Doubling down” is a treacherous path to making money which nearly everyone has previously noted. “Cut and run” references selling a bad investment or fund. If you’ve invested for more than 50 years without ever making a bad investment (one you needed to sell) you are indeed fortunate.
The Closing Bell: Apple Hits $1 Trillion Mark, Boosts Nasdaq And S&P Keep in mind that about 20 years ago, when Apple was hitting bottom, GE was the largest company in the US if not the world. Now GE is in shambles with no end in sight. My, how the tables turn.
When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down Only two? Impressive. It appears to take me a dozen bad experiences for my greed to be dope-slapped and become averse or at least avoidant.
That said, I did hold some recent pharm bomb for years, yet another hindsight-terrible tip from some plutocrat friend, held it to his surprise, and ... it recently jumped up and I sold for a thin profit.
Probably equaling a percent a year of the holding period.
But I was made whole, so to speak. Many of those articles on idiot-investor psych apply to me.
When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down I doubled and tripled down on a bunch of financial stocks during the GFC (RDN and AXP mostly), made a lot of money and thought I was smart. Then I tried the same with a couple of energy and mining stocks a few years back. With one (BBL) I lost my guts and sold at pretty much the exact bottom (it's since recovered nicely) the other (TDW) I bravely held on all the way to bankruptcy.
Adding the two experiences together I broke even, more or less. I consider myself lucky to have done no worse and will never try it again.
When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down LLJB hit it on the head. Since today’s investors mostly have the attention span and patience of a fruit fly, it’s probably never a good idea. Yep, I’ve done it. Some winners. Some losers. Sometimes a draw.
Once you start “buying down” there’s no way to know when that asset will turn. You’re reasonably certain it will turn ... But no way to know when. Could be 20 days. Could be 20 years. Having good intuition helps. But still, it can be a long tough slog before you reap a reward.
Generally, I’d say spread your assets around a bit and sit back and wait. A lot easier on the nerves if nothing else.
FMI Third Quarter Report @Derf all Long term. I'm not a day trader :-D
I've ranted about WHEN vs WHAT when it comes to investing. I take profits regularly just like I take losses. I never carry a loss over to next year, so I will take some profit somewhere. I always pay capital gains taxes every year. I'm sure I'm not maximizing my profits on paper in the perfect la-la-land world of buying once, holding for 30
years and paying taxes once in your life. I'm happy with my real world situation regarding capital gains taxes.
FMI Third Quarter Report @VF Short term or long capital gain ? Just wonder. I'm a firm believer in different strokes for different folks.
As for paying taxes my father said he didn't mind paying them as long as he had the money to pay !
As for me I think the taxation has been out of hand for to many
years !!
Good investing to all,
Derf
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? Skeet, I'm the same way -- you said it perfectly!! (Though I do some research and place orders on the weekends when things are quiet, every now and then.)
But, investing is something that I enjoy and during my working years we opened our business most everyday except on holidays and weekends. With this, I open my investment shop most days except holidays and during the summer months where generally I take a gander weekly (reduced hours) but not as often as I do during the investing season (4th & 1st quarters).
With investing what may be right for one might not be right for others. Do what you feel is best for yourself and discard a lot of what the talking heads preach. My late father taught me if you have not picked up on a trend by the time it's printed in the papers ... Well, son, you are to late getting to the party as the big money has already been made.
Barron's Cover Story: The Top Robo Advisors: An Exclusive Ranking
WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution Related Story...interesting geo-political dynamics when it comes to the production and trade of resources:
For too long, Russia has enjoyed near-monopoly status as the main supplier of natural gas to our European allies, and wielded that power as a means of political coercion.
Simply stated, the United States wants to help our partners increase their energy security by increasing the diversity, not only of their supply, but of their suppliers as well.
energy-secretary-perry-true-energy-independence-is-finally-within-our-graspForbes Article:
The U.S. may continue to lead the world in natural gas production for a few more years, but the level of proved natural gas reserves implies that our lead could be short-lived.
The Middle East's proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet, nearly ten times U.S. proved reserves of 309 trillion cubic feet. For perspective, U.S. proved reserves are only 4.5% of the global total.
Russia has more proved natural gas reserves than any other country with 1.23 quadrillion cubic feet, followed by Iran with 1.17 quadrillion cubic feet. Total proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were enough to satisfy 2017 global production rates for 52.6 years.
the-u-s-is-still-the-global-natural-gas-king
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? Hello, Being an active retail investor I tabulate my portfolio's value on most market days. In this way I get a feel for what's moving and what's not. In addition, I update my market barometer weekly as I use it as an aid to help determine the better times to buy. Generally, I hold my positions for a good number of years with a few that I move in an out of as I feel warranted to tweak my equity allocation.
I can understand a passive investor looking at their stuff monthly or quarterly. But, investing is something that I enjoy and during my working years we opened our business most everyday except on holidays and weekends. With this, I open my investment shop most days except holidays and during the summer months where generally I take a gander weekly (reduced hours) but not as often as I do during the investing season (4th & 1st quarters). These are the two quarters that my portfolio has the stronger returns and where I generally make most of my money. However, I have found that stocks often go soft during the summer months and sometimes if the stars are aligned to my fancy, I'll do some buying as I did back in June (around the edges of course).
With investing what may be right for one might not be right for others. Do what you feel is best for yourself and discard a lot of what the talking heads preach. My late father taught me if you have not picked up on a trend by the time it's printed in the papers ... Well, son, you are to late getting to the party as the big money has already been made. This still pretty much still rings true today. This is why I watch my stuff closely looking for trends to put new money to work. And, at times letting some stuff go in the process. Although, the turnover ratio on some of my funds is pretty high and Morningstar estimates overall my mutual fund managers (on average) turn their positions every 24 months ... my average turnover computes to years.
By the way, turnover is the measure of how often an investor (or trader) buys and sells.
PRBLX finally dumps WFC Another parallel to WFC is VW, which deliberately cheated on emissions tests for its diesel engines to skirt regulations and sell more cars. The cheating at VW started at the top and was very intentional. I own a VW Golf (although not a diesel), and it’s been a fantastic car. All things else being equal, I would like to buy a Golf Sportwagen for my next car but can’t get past the whole emissions scandal. I worked most of my career in environmental protection and what VW did was unconscionable to me. I plan to keep my VW another year or so, but will probably replace it with a Honda, even though I like the VW better. My wife and I have owned a number of Hondas over the years, and my Golf has been just as reliable and it’s much more fun to drive. Resale value sucks, however, compared to Honda — a situation that hasn’t been helped by the scandal.
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? In my case there is no correlation between how many times a week I look and when I sell. It's just like looking at baseball scores. It's fun and involving. When I was 7 years old I was sooooo into knowing the latest numbers and rankings in both the National League and American League. My fave team was in the National League but I kept tabs on the other teams there *and* even in the other league. Each summer day I consulted the One Important Page of the local paper (when I could find one, as I lacked the coin to buy one). This did not encourage or precipitate any further action on my part. I wanted to know because I wanted to know. As a senior now, many decades later, my checking the state of my investments is very much the same.
Sometimes this has precipitated a buy.
Buy low/ sell high is of course the sensible approach. If I have contemplated buying shares of a particular fund — including shares of a fund I already own — how will I know the NAV has fallen to a level I consider "low" if I don't have a look? But, except for my first year of investing back in the previous century, I have never sold shares of a fund because of market fluctuations. I have sold because of changes in how the fund is run, because I needed money for something else, because a particular investment is no longer needed or appropriate, and in one instance because of how a fund manager was responding to a market dip. I cannot see a correlation between my selling and the few minutes spent most weekdays having a look at the "score". My initial buys were done after doing hours of research. After that I leave it to the fund manager to take action. S/he is far more qualified than I am.
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? I’m glad my medical doctors don’t subscribe to the don’t look school of medicine. Would have been dead many years ago. :)
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? I look at and take action from time to time on those assets in individual stocks, MFs, and ETFS that I manage myself. However, my retirement portfolio I touch only after consulting with my TIAA advisor, usually once per year. I could look at the latter daily, but don't; the other positions I monitor M-F because it's one of my hobbies. I'm aware of the contradictions and absurdities of my situation. If you asked me if I was a long-term investor, I'd say yes, but that I check on Asian markets and futures early every day. I've been doing this for more than 25 years, so I guess it is for the long term.
Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio? Umm ... What aspect of a portfolio?
I’m reminded of Patrick Henry’s “I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided”. That is that I want to be as disconnected from the major indexes as possible. I take roughly 30 seconds most weekdays to pull-up my financial app and compare my portfolio’s daily change with some other barometers. Up / down matters little. What I want (at 20+ years into retirement) is low volatility. Friday was a pretty typical day. My portfolio lost 0.03%. (That’s a bit overstated because it doesn’t include interest/dividends which accrue daily on many holdings.).
Some other baramoters Friday:
TRBCX -1.13%
KCMTX -0.96%
DSENX -0.68%
VFINX -0.66%
TRRIX -0.06%
Split Benchmark* +0.01%
* My combined split benchmark = 50% TRRIX and 50% RPSIX
Readers will note from the benchmark that aspirations for growth are very subdued. Hey - I’m 72 and have already lived longer than I deserved based on earlier lifestyle. Why push the envelope and reach for return?
I use a great (subscription based) app from Apple. Takes one-click and 30 seconds (or less) to view the relative daily volatility. Aside from that one measure, I could care less. Might spot-check YTD (at Lipper) on 5 or 6 funds once every month or so - purely out of curiosity.
Disclaimer: I am not qualified to give investment advice. I make no recommendations to others. One size does not fit all.
PRBLX finally dumps WFC My reason for dumping PRBLX years ago was because WFC clearly had major issues with the 'G'(overnance) in the Parnassus ESG investing framework, yet the fund kept the #1 holding for years as the various scandals piled up. Although I could care less about ESG ratings frankly[1] ... and gods know I own enough 'sin' stocks anyway. Rather, I like the composition of PRBLX and think it's a great blended fund that marches to its own drummer[2]... but it needed to dump WFC to live up to its self-proclaimed ESG mandate, imo. (or change their mandate)
I'm recently back in PRBLX for my Roth IRA, btw.
[1] It's why I bought VMVFX early on. I could care less about 'minimum volatility' in the name but upon closer inspection the fund is a nifty world stock fund that has (to me) a great allocation and fits nicely into what I wanted in my portfolio.
[2] It's also why I like PRGTX. It's a tech fund but it holds few if any of the 'usual suspects' in the space (ie, the FANGS, etc.) and does its own thing.