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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    That is not an accurate comparison. VWINX focuses on income (bonds) as the primary objective, and capital appreciation (stocks) as the secondary objective. Holding more long bonds is Wellington choice. FPACX is the other way around, and cash is treated as their tactical position.
    When LC tilting growth beat value for 15 years, many claimed it's not an accurate comparison instead of admitting their selection did that.
    FPACX beat VWELX (similar % in stocks) by over 60% in the last 5 years: 90+% vs 56+%.
    If you invested in VGIT=treasuries in the last 10 years, you made just over 1% per year.
    My point about VWIAX is the fact that even with 20% less in equities, PFACX did a much better job in general because performance was 3+ times better.
    See chart of all 3 funds (https://schrts.co/KjQvIJBP).
  • Oakmark International Funds
    OAKIX annual returns were often inconsistent.
    It wasn't uncommon for 1 yr., 3 yr., and 5 yr. fund category returns
    to alternate from top decile to bottom decile and vice versa.
    I haven't paid close attention to Oakmark funds for quite some time.
    I just checked OAKIX and noticed it hasn't been doing well in recent years.
    OAKIX returns in 2022 and 2024 were in the bottom 5% of the Foreign Value category according to M*.
    I have an article about Morningstar's International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year nominees in 2013.
    Here's a snippet which references David Herro and Oakmark International.
    "Herro is no stranger to internationally minded investors.
    He won the 2006 Morningstar International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year award
    and also received Morningstar's Manager of the Decade prize for international funds in 2010.
    Herro has been running this fund, on his own and with comanagers, since its 1992 inception,
    and its long-term record is certainly attention-getting.
    It hasn't slowed down, either: Oakmark International has ranked in the top 3% of its category
    in four of the past five calendar years.
    Not surprisingly, money has poured in, and the fund now has $28 billion in assets."

    Note: I've previously owned OAKIX (exited July 2014).
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Yikes, as a former OAKIX shareholder I recoil at the description of Herro as a "renowned investor." I think we can all see who drove the out-performance of the fund many years ago by comparing OAKIX with ARTKX.
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    The expense ratio is something that many have complained about for decades. You can't argue too much about it until you find the exceptions, and that's the problem.
    Funds like PRWCX,PIMIX proved it for years within their categories. I never cared how the manager invests; I only care about results.
    I used to treat my portfolio as an NBA team, the best 5 players play. I don't care if one used to be a star; if he isn't now, I replace him. This process makes sure my team goes to the playoffs almost every year.
    But, looking at 5 years shows that FPACX made 3+ times as much as VWIAX. See chart (https://schrts.co/dshhyMyg) and that includes the expense ratio. Sure, FPACX has more stocks but VWIAX can't hide behind these numbers with about 20% less in stocks. This is where flexible manager earns his fees.
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    @larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
    - ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
    - all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
    - 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
    - top ranked returns 3 of last 4 years.
    - and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
    So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    @FD. Agree with you in that I want to know what do Monday each week. But with no certainty about government policy from one hour to the next,,, and no indication that the regime has a clue what it wants to do or is even connected to reality ,,, it is literally impossible to know anything. This applies to small investors ,, big investors, institutional investors and businesses of all sizes. The only folks who KNOW how to invest with any certainty are getting inside information from the regime.
    This is your opinion, and several others on this board that keep posting similar posts daily.
    Of course, the lib media keep feeding you what you want to hear too. After all, they are selling a product.
    The previous administration had the biggest inflation in the last 40 years and 2022 was one of the worst for bonds but none of the same people and media freaked out and posted daily hundreds times about the end of American dream.
    That time was much worse.
    We are in a transition time until things will settle. It will take months to resolve the unfair tariff practices.
    In his term Trump asked the NATO countries to increase their defense budget, they all laughed and dismissed it until he told them the USA will defend them and they increased their budgets.
    I could be wrong but no one else achieved it.
    TDS is a major lib illness.
    What can you do now
    1) stop reading the same sources that claim the US is close to destruction.
    2) most investors should hold their asset allocation according to their goals and hardly trade.
  • CLO Troubles
    @yogibearbull
    Thank for sharing this CLO information.
    In recent years, I considered investing in a dedicated CLO fund¹.
    CLO funds with high credit ratings offered greater yields than other bond funds with similar credit ratings.
    Default risk was said to be low and apparently there were zero defaults for the nearly 7,000 AAA-rated
    CLO debt tranches issued between 1993 and 2022.
    The fact that the vast majority of CLO ETFs (13/16) were in existence for less than 3 years (inception dates listed below) gave me pause. Six CLO ETFs were introduced while the Fed was hiking interest rates
    from March 2022 - July 2023. Since CLOs are floating-rate instruments, rate hikes are obviously advantageous.
    It wasn't clear to me how CLO ETFs would react during certain less favorable market environments.
    AAA (09/08/2020)
    JAAA (10/16/2020)
    JBBB (01/11/2022)
    CLOI (06/21/2022)
    ICLO (12/09/2022)
    CLOA (01/10/2023)
    CLOZ (01/23/2023)
    CLOX (07/18/2023)
    PAAA (07/19/2023)
    PSQA (09/11/2024)
    ACLO (11/15/2024)
    PCLO (12/02/2024)
    PCMM (12/02/2024)
    NCLO (12/10/2024)
    CLOB (12/24/2024)
    BCLO (01/19/2025)
    ¹ For several years I owned RCTIX which often had a sizable allocation to CLOs.
  • 3 more Matthews Portfolio Managers exit
    Sven,
    Fund liquidations and fund mergers are distinct possibilities.
    In light of recent events, I too question whether Matthews can effectively run their business
    and wouldn't be surprised if they were acquired by another firm.
    I don't pay much attention to Matthews anymore but I've owned MAPIX and MAPTX years ago.
  • CLO Troubles
    Thanks for the article. I did not know why but after I held CLOs for over 1.5 years, I sold it several weeks ago because the price started going down.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Help me with the reasons for why foreign countries hold US Treasuries.
    Trade is one very big reason.
    The US, for many years, exported US inflation by buying cheaper imports from around the world.
    These countries, in turn, brought US Treasuries to absorb those purchases and control inflation in their respective economies.
    UST are a shock absorber for dealing with inflation and a benefit to both parties.
    Selling Treasuries comes with it's own set of risks by the countries that hold them, but potentially a bigger risk when they sell them as it can be inflationary for their economies.
    Think Chess verse checkers.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Michael Manelli, a comanager on OAKIX and OAKEX, will retire at year's end.
    The following notes for OAKEX are from Morningstar Fund Investor (April 2025).
    Our Take: Manelli is leaving unexpectedly in the prime of his career,
    and his experience and investment acumen will surely be missed by the firm.
    Manelli’s departure disrupts what was a clear succession plan for renowned investor David Herro.
    Although Herro remains a comanager, he had delegated significant responsibilities here to Manelli and comanager Justin Hance, who will now take on an expanded role. Hance’s presence provides continuity:
    He’s been with the firm since 2010, has 18 years of experience, and has been a comanager here since 2016.
    Like Manelli, Hance has proved to be a savvy small/mid-cap investor under Herro’s mentorship and invests heavily in the offering.
  • 3 more Matthews Portfolio Managers exit
    Just read the following short note about Matthews China Fund in M* Fund Investor (April 2025).
    Matthews Asia dismissed five additional portfolio managers along with two analysts earlier this year.
    Matthews China recently lost one of its comanagers amid yet another flurry of investment-team departures
    at the firm.
    Our Take: Investment team turnover has long been a serious problem at Matthews,
    and the firm dismissed five more portfolio managers and two more analysts earlier this year,
    including Hardy Zhu, who was serving as a comanager on this and two other strategies.
    Zhu only became a comanager on the three strategies in April 2024,
    but he had worked as a China analyst at the firm for 14 years, so his departure is significant.
    Moreover, Matthews has lost 13 portfolio managers and four analysts in total during the past 2.5 years. (The firm also added one portfolio manager and one analyst during the period.)
    We lowered the People rating to Average and the Morningstar Medalist Rating to Neutral.
  • Tariffs
    "All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down since the announcement, with energy the hardest hit. That is because oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2021 on fears that a global recession will curb demand."
    "The materials and consumer-discretionary sectors are both down sharply because of their reliance on imports, while real estate and financials were hit hard by worries about slowing growth."
    "A bond selloff that began Monday turned into the biggest weekly climb in the 10-year yield in almost 25 years, alarming traders."
    "Traders are bracing for more big moves ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expectations for the size of stock swings over the next 30 days, just touched the highest level since March 2020."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-companies-and-markets-hit-hardest-by-trump-s-tariffs/ar-AA1CPk0a
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Interesting article. Resharing iPhone manufacturing in the States is impossible (lack of skill labor) and high labor cost. Some calculated that an American-made iPhone 16 would cost at least $2,000.
    In 2017 Cook said if there is a tooling meeting being held in US, there may be a handful of workers to be held in a conference room, whereas the same meeting being held in China, it would take several football fields. Foxconn has done a masterful job in mass manufacturing of high valued products. If US wants to compete, where are the training, education and funding for new “skill” workers ?
    Apple has attempted to move manufacturing to Vietnam, but the lacking of the number of skilled workers limited its potential. India is more successful but there are more local political hurdles and infrastructure (reliable power grid) to overcome in order to make a full transition from China.
    I understand that iPhones have very high profit margins and customers often upgrade their $1,000 phones in 2 years. iPads and Mac computers are more like commodity products having much longer service life. My Mac computers are still running well after 10 years.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    @Crash, thank you for this comprehensive article. Good reminder that the Canadian Bloomberg has many free good articles.
    FYI, the future market for 2, 5, 10, and 30 years Treasuries are up slightly.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Let’s see how the bond market plays out next week.
  • Tariffs
    I didn't get screwed; it was how corporate America does business. You can whine or start looking for a job or do both.
    Gov/State employees are the ones that don't care; after all, they think they deserve lifetime employment. As I said before, I worked many years at Gov/State places and saw the abuse, waste and laziness.
    I'm discussing principles, not emotions, like Dems love to do.
  • Major budget cuts proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    This administration also wants to dismantle FEMA and push the disaster relief responsibility to the states. Do you think Florida state can handle hurricane Katrina alone? We have witnessed how difficult to recover after Katrina even with FEMA assistance.
    FEMA has denied North Carolina’s request to continue matching 100% of the state’s spending on Hurricane Helene recovery.
    ...
    The agency’s decision means that North Carolina will lose a critical share of federal assistance in what’s expected to be a years-long rebuild process.
    After Helene struck in late September, the Biden administration gave the green light for FEMA to reimburse North Carolina on 100% of disaster relief assistance — particularly with debris removal and emergency protective services. The cost-share allowed state officials to plow ahead on time-sensitive needs more quickly.
    In December, FEMA also set the federal cost-share for all other categories of assistance at 90%. But the 100% period for debris cleanup and other services was set to end after six months.
    https://ncnewsline.com/2025/04/12/fema-will-stop-matching-100-of-helene-recovery-money-in-nc-stein-says/
    I am just waiting to see if FEMA/budget will be cut by DOGE? Govt. should not be in business to provide insurance.
    FEMA assistance is not the same as insurance. Assistance only provides the basic needs for a home to be safe, sanitary and livable. ... FEMA assistance will allow you to make basic home repairs. Expenses for repairs that exceed the conditions to make a home safe, sanitary and livable are ineligible.
    https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/understanding-what-uninsured-losses-fema-may-cover
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    "It’s the kind of friendly treatment that industry was envisioning when Apple CEO Tim Cook, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos assembled behind the president during his Jan. 20 inauguration. That united display of fealty reflected Big Tech’s hopes that Trump would be more accommodating than President Joe Biden’s administration’s and help propel an already booming industry to even greater heights."
    "Apple won praise from Trump in late February when the Cupertino, California, company committed to invest $500 billion and add 20,000 jobs in the U.S. during the next four years. The pledge was an echo of a $350 billion investment commitment in the U.S. that Apple made during Trump’s first term when the iPhone was exempted from China tariffs."
    apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-smartphones-electronics-laptops-apple-10c31e91d7790bfe8fb004f547109359
  • Tariffs
    ”Please limit comments to how tariffs may impact the economy or investing.
    This thread is not intended for political diatribes - please use Off Topic for that.”
    Thanks. I needed that!
    The President’s name is attached to these and he’s exercising questionable executive authority in announcing / imposing them. However, the tariffs / tariff proposals are the product of his broader administration, surely taking into account the views of those inside. “Tariffs” might work as a caption.
    My gut reaction having watched the circus for about 10 days is that a lot of this was a ”trial balloon”. Announce them. Watch. Wait. And and see how markets and other nations react. Obviously, it didn’t go swimmingly well. The goal would have been to find an alternative government funding method to the income tax with its progressive structure - thereby despised by many of the richest. A tariff tax hits everyone “equally” as do sales taxes.
    Bottom line: They nearly tanked the markets and economy and quickly backed off from the most extreme proposals. What next? Tariffs won’t be as draconian as first proposed. How then to pay for the tax cuts? The federal budget deficit will likely grow, increasing the debt load - a more desirable option (easier to kick down the road) than tanking the economy and causing a catastrophic global recession / depression. There will be tax cuts come hell or high water. If my thesis is correct, this will lead to much higher inflation in coming years. And there may still be a recession. Can’t rule that out.
    Rather than listen to me, I’m linking a very good Meb Faber interview with Paul Donovan of UBS Global Wealth. Neither Faber nor Donovan are fans of tariffs. Donovan understands how they affect consumers (and how they do not) a lot better than most of us. (Disclaimer: I no longer hold any of Faber’s funds.)

  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    And also, as I posted on yogi's Death Cross thread:
    Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
    With all due respect to those NOT inclined to use T/A, in my 45 years of investing, I've found that NOT using T/A during times like these is akin to flying blind. Currently, T/A has allowed me to completely remove emotion, develop a strategy for re-deployment of proceeds from our March 31 sales of 50% of our stocks, and simply connect the dots, so to speak. YMMV.