Post-FOMC Notes
Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40% (generous), discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Inflation-expectations remain high now but should be headed down longer term. Rate increases cannot be ruled out, but they have very low probability for the next few years. Prospects of tariff-inflation are unclear. GDP growth has been distorted by abnormal imports/exports ahead of tariffs. Oil & gasoline prices have move up on Israel-Iran skirmishes, but those hikes may not stick (or, may). The US is almost self-sufficient in oil & gas, so it's less vulnerable to external disturbances.
Labor market is solid. Wage growth is moderate. The unemployment rate of 4.2% is still near full employment. Both labor supply & demand have deteriorated, but they remain in balance. This may explain why tougher immigration hasn't affected the labor data yet. However, it's harder to find new jobs or replacement jobs.
Housing has additional complexity in that its short- and long- term outlooks are different.
Uncertainties have diminished but remain elevated due to tariffs, trade, immigration & geopolitics. These have caused wider dispersions in the SEPs. However, pay more attention to short-term projections.
Effects of AI may be positive (general prosperity) or negative (deflationary). AI may augment the labor or replace it. But changes would be transformational.
Fed is data dependent but also forward-looking, so he couldn't be tied down to what the past data showed.
Economic data collection is important because good data benefits all - public, businesses, government. It's an investment in the future.
US fiscal policies & big global economic changes aren't within the purview of the Fed, so it will wait & react to those as they come.
New SEPs (summaries of economic projections) were released.
5-yr review of the Fed about policies & communications is almost complete. These reviews have been done since 2012 - they were done annually at one time, but now every 5 yrs. It's not affected by changes in Fed leadership. Fed staffing level has been reduced as the government shrinks overall. Powell declined comment on whether he will stay on as Fed Governor after his term as Chair expires (that may determine whether the new Fed Chair after 05/2026 may be internal or external); he also declined to address President Trump's comments about him in the media.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2048/thread

PIMCO All Asset and PIMCO All Asset All Authority funds are just so so funds after tracking for many years.

the most amazing thing regarding barry ritholtz is his ability to get top-of-the-line guests.
there are several exchanges where barry pits his years of investing heuristics against bill's more probabilistic backed approach. it did not appear barry was going to let go regardless.
but as a middle-of-the-road conservative, nothing was more telling than barry's inability to understand the likely mid-long term disaster of trump. barry tried to portray big panics (dotcom, 9\11,covid...) as regular things investors survive, but history mostly forgets those that didnt survive.
so while economic outcomes of panics may be the same, this is a singular cause by the most powerful person in the world with unprecedented incompetence.
then both went on to giggle over the infamous clip, where trump (& family) at the peak of his mental powers, could not do simple math, and expended more time defending his error then attempting a correct recalc.

but as with other topics, i doubt barry walked away agreeing trump is uniquely highly probable disaster.

One article on the question
A late night listen prompted me to consider the possibility. Guest was Whitney Baker (audio linked at end). Among the concerns she noted is the amount of leverage (borrowed money) in the system. I’m playing that game myself on small scale by (1) carrying a recent home upgrade on a (interest-free for 18 months) credit card so the money can stay invested in a Roth as long as possible. And I carry a small 3% mortgage on my home preferring to risk the money in the markets rather than pay off the loan. Suspect I’m not alone here in that thinking. Of course these are minuscule amounts of “leverage” compared to what hedge funds or CEFs engage in.
Alan Greenspan famously said in the 90s that you can’t recognize a bubble until it has burst. He’s been laughed at for the remark. I get it. But he’s not a dumb person. I won’t list them, but several “authorities” believe there is a market bubble (and they have been scorned in recent years). Bill Fleckenstein is one. Fleck cites passive inflows into retirement savings plans along with index investing. Don’t laugh too loud. He’s certainly been right for several years on gold which has more than doubled over only 2 or 3 years. And highly respected James Stack has his investors at 57% invested and 43% in cash or T-bills. That’s very conservative for him.
Of course, you can cite even more “authorities” who insist there is no bubble. Honestly, I’m not making the case either way. But the question is one worth considering. In a real market crash it’s very hard to “log-in” and sell your plummeting investments and virtually impossible to speak to your friendly fund rep. It gets very crazy. We had a small sneak-preview in late March.
I’ve looked up the P/E (one measure of relative value) on M* for some funds of interest. They all seem tame to me - not signifying a bubble. I have no idea how M* calculates these.
PRWCX: 21.91
DODBX: 13.65
LCORX: 14.08
PRFDX: 14.73
OAKBX: 13.04
Link to Meb Faber May 2025 interview with Whitney Baker

Here’s an improved link to the transcript
Audio Link
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read.
A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.

Looks like I'm having a computer malfunction.

The board’s software is really difficult to work with this evening!

This ties into what I was saying a few weeks ago about the dollar's dominance on the world stage being questioned due to FOTUS and his policies....coupled w/America's blooming debt.
I still think over the next several years global trade/economics will be restructured around, but not necessarily through, the US and USD.

@FD1000: Concerning your comments (just above), I am in close agreement.

Thank you.
We should concentrate on investments and money on this site.
=======================
Watches: In the last 10 years, I kept buying cheap Chinese watches that look like Apple Watches and have about 80% of their capabilities for about $25-30. Every 3 years I threw them away and bought a new one with better technologies.
I bought 2 Seikos in my life. They are just indestructible. They got banged, fell on the floor, and still work, but I haven't used them for years because I like digital and lighter watches. I also like to read my messages and receive phone calls.
Seikos are great watches; anything more expensive than that is just a showoff. Just call it men's jewelry. Most people carry their phone everywhere; you really don't need a watch.

I drive an M Roadster. I bought it 25 years ago. Used. Paid cash.
Well, yes, we also have a Volvo, bought in 2015, At the factory. Cash.
To my son's considerable distress, I don't feel a need for the most modern car.
At the end of my career, we got a new VP. She called us together for a chat. "When you first graduated, you drove a Toyota, but now you would certainly drive a Lexus." I was driving a Honda. Yeah, I didn't think much of her other ideas, either. This is the part where having a larger investment portfolio came in. Picture my hands in a weighing motion. I was fairly sanguine with the conclusion - I don't need this (the VP experience).

European stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks for more than a decade.
The S&P 500 gained more than 500% since 2010 while European stocks
were up less than 150% during the same period.
Conversely, European stocks gained 220% during the previous 15 years
(1995 - 2009) while the S&P 500 went up only 130%.
What has changed during the past 15 years and will these changes revert?
"The trade-off confronting investors: The U.S.’s biggest stocks are more innovative and profitable
but also far more expensive, while Europe’s are much less interesting but are cheap and have stimulus,
plus an appeal to investors looking to diversify away from their highly concentrated U.S. holdings."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/it-s-a-scary-world-but-investing-abroad-has-new-attractions/ar-AA1GJfVH

Individuals and family groups can also invest with Bowen, Hanes & Company.
The minimum required investment is not disclosed on their website.
"The firm operates according to a carefully formulated strategy, and is dedicated to our primary mission,
meeting the needs and long-term objectives of our clients, including pension funds,
profit sharing plans, foundations, endowments, individuals and family groups."
https://www.bowenhanes.com/

I ain't got fifty years to work with anymore anyway.

- The only two sources of financial stress are risk and debt.
FD: It depends. Risk is in your head; change your thinking or maybe change your style.
The right debt is healthy and welcome. Example: buying a house with a loan.
- A home is not an investment.
FD: Home is the best investment for most Americans. Most retirees have small portfolios.
- Trying to get ahead by cutting down on expenses is a loser’s game.
FD: Cutting expenses is one of the best choices for most people because Americans spend too much money and have small portfolios at retirement.
- Increasing income is the key to financial happiness.
FD: If income is a higher salary, probably. Increasing investment income isn't the key.
If someone makes $150K annually, is she happier than another who makes $100K?
If someone's portfolio is worth 10 million, is she happier than another who has "only" 5 million?
- A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life
FD: Again, if you are a student or just started working in NYC, you are doing fine.
- Driving a 10-15 year old (rusty) vehicle also represents a lack of success in life.
FD: Really? So, why did Sam Walton drive an old vehicle?
- Never finance a new vehicle. Always pay cash.
FD: Know how to negotiate new vehicles and always finance it when the rate is low at 0-1.99% while your investments do much better.
- Don’t skimp on insurance.
FD: too generic. You need the proper insurance.
We always had Home, Auto, and Umbrella. When we had young kids, we had term life insurance. As retirees with grown kids, we stopped it years ago.
- Always give large outsized tips for services well rendered.
FD: Please define "well rendered."
Wait, I have one. Save a million by age 35. The devil is in the details :-)

I have a couple of Citizen watches along with a Seiko watch.
Inherited an Omega gold watch that my father earned in 1976 for 25 years of service with his employer.
This watch is in mint condition and has never been worn.
Might be worth a decent amount but I think I'll keep the Omega
for sentimental reasons plus it's a very nice looking watch.

I got a lot out of reading their massive reports years ago. However, when they sold the firm to that "fund" manger ( I forgot the name) and justified it for "estate planning purposes ( even though two of them were bachelors) I lost all interest.

I don’t know. But that photo of a late 1940s telecommunications switchboard (or computer bank?) resembles the complexity of the article. I’ve never liked bonds. Stick to 1-3 years out on the curve investment grade. Just me.
Randall Forsyth 2-3 weeks ago (May 30) had a Barron’s piece titled, ”I Never Thought I’d Say This: Buy TIPS”. His argument was that … “the current yield on 30-year TIPS recently reached 2.7%, the highest for that TIPS maturity going back to 2010.”
That “fat” 2.7% + the inflation adjustment on principle makes them desirable (I guess). Realize however that Forsyth is talking about owning the bonds directly. Maybe so. But I wouldn’t own them in a fund which can behave much differently than a bond does.
FWIW - An article in Barron’s this week says munis are currently attractively priced.
Article: ”Munis Are Still Cheap” by Amy Stone
(Take that with a huge grain of salt.)
Elsewhere in Barron’s this week it’s reported that the spread between junk and high quality bonds has narrowed significantly after having temporarily widened back in March and April. So they have become less attractive as investments now.

Youtube interview: How to beat the market over 50 years w/ Jay Bowen

2008-09 was a tough year overall. UTF is a solid fund, if purchased at the proper point...which goes for many funds. I've owned it for the last 5 years and it's done well, though it's richly valued currently.

Thanks @yogibearbull. Yes, one common criticism of this one is the ROC portion of dividends. But that can be said of a lot of CEFs. If I ever hear that Gabelli has sold his big chunk I’ll head for the exit. Forsyth did a (mostly complementary) piece on the fund in Barron’s a few years ago. Mentioned Gabelli’s personal investment.
PS - I spoke too early. The CEF pulled back to $8.29 late morning, which makes perfect sense. I can’t account for the brief spike in price that was reflected on several different pricing platforms. But CEFs do behave in erratic ways!

Several weeks ago I opened up a good sized position in Gabelli’s GDL fund. Had owned a much smaller amount for a couple months. Thinly traded with only a $95.7 Mil asset base. Took hours to acquire the desired number of shares. The CEF is an arbitrage fund that skims small profits from pending or nearly completed mergers & acquisitions. It’s the tamest CEF Gabelli offers with a record dating back 15+ years and which I’d expect to outpace cash by a percent or two over longer periods. (Gabelli himself is reported to own a big chunk.)
Averaging in at $8.32, the fund has gone nowhere in the short time I owned it. Held steady around $8.32. Today’s the ex-dividend date (12-cents per share). While the fund opened lower as expected ($8.26) it quickly bounced to $8.35, well above its average price in recent days. I would not have expected it to go x-dividend and then jump in price over what it closed the day before - especially with the present Mid-East turmoil.
I really don’t understand the logic here in a fund jumping higher on ex-dividend date after the dividend has been declared / pulled out. It would make more sense for investors to be pushing the price up in the days before the dividend is declared. Would be instructive to better understand investor behavior & psychology is these matters.
I

(my kind of investing ... and why I went into my state's 403(b) versus the state pension system.)
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit. It doesn’t hire consultants to help it pick outside managers. Instead, for the past 50 years, its investments in stocks and bonds have been overseen by a single manager, Bowen, Hanes & Co., a nine-person firm led by Harold “Jay” Bowen III. In short, Tampa and Bowen Hanes do one thing, and the rest of the institutional world does something else.
Consider the Tampa fund’s performance, though. It racked up a 32.2% return in the fiscal year ended in September. “Fiscal 2024 was—not only was it our 50th year, it was the best year the plan’s ever had,” says Bowen, 63. The return was good enough to rank the Tampa plan as the best performer for the period in the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service’s database of plans with more than $1 billion in assets under management. Tampa was also No. 1 for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years.
When the firm started by Bowen’s father began managing the Tampa Fire & Police pension in 1974, the plan had $12.1 million in assets. Fifty years later, in September 2024, the plan’s assets totaled $3.2 billion. What’s more, net of contributions, the system had paid out $1.8 billion to retirees. That means by investing in stocks and bonds, Bowen Hanes had in effect turned $12 million into almost $5 billion over 50 years.
< - >
Full archive link: https://archive.ph/3nTUd
Fund holdings as of September 2024: https://www.tampa.gov/document/september-30-2024-fiscal-year-financial-statements-115286

I just want to thank the OP for helping to bring about a very lively and informative discussion, even if the outcome was not what he intended. It may just be a matter of time before the rose-colored glasses are out of season, or go way up in price.

So far, the numbers speak for themselves—the outcome has been good, and yet you still can’t admit it.
How can you keep insisting everything is terrible when key indicators—like inflation and markets—are saying otherwise?
Sure, the future could be worse. If and when that happens, we’ll deal with it. But let’s not rewrite the present based on hypotheticals.
We should be looking at the overall state of the economy and markets, not filtering everything through politics. Ironically, I don’t remember hearing much noise here when:
2022, under Biden, brought the highest inflation in four decades
Bonds had their worst performance in 30–40 years
Stocks were also down, hitting millions of Americans, especially those relying on bonds to protect their portfolios
That was a truly bad outcome—and it'll be hard to top that kind of damage.
As for Powell: he should be cutting rates, but he’s clearly hesitant—possibly because he doesn’t want to repeat past mistakes. Meanwhile, other central banks are already easing.
So far YTD: SPY + QQQ made money, Europe made a lot more, bonds made money. After 50% in 2023+24 for SPY, any positive performance in 2025 will be great.