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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • YBB’s weekly Barron’s summaries
    Thanks for the reminder. Interesting take on Warren Buffet’s recent move.
    Pg 18. Berkshire Hathaway (fwd P/E 23.4; P/B 1.6; P/E 19 on look-through earnings; WB owns/controls 14%). Stocks are rallying, but Warren Buffett (96) keeps selling, leaving billions on the table. His recent sales seem to be poorly timed. He has almost stopped buybacks. The cash (mostly T-Bills) is now $311 billion (31.1% of market-cap). BRK stock has done well (+28% YTD, and another near-trillion-dollar company) and its operational businesses will benefit from the economic boom. WB has been waiting for an elephant-size acquisition for years, but that $311 billion may just become a nice parting gift from WB to the next CEO, likely Greg Abel (62). A huge uncertainty is what the post-Buffett BRK will look like?
    Is WB seeing something that we are not seeing in coming years? After all, he is 96 years old.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    It appears Warren Buffett of all people may have fallen into the politics trap. He said at the BH annual meeting earlier this year "with present fiscal policies I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely." He reiterated his belief that capital gains taxes would go up, which was part of his reason for preemptive selling.
    He stayed out of the race this year, but organized fundraisers in previous years for Obama and Clinton. It seems that his recent investment strategy has been partly influenced by his political prognostications. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts course going forward. He’s very pragmatic and never one to ignore reality.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    Since he is in the chair of the Advidisory Committe, he is ultimately responsible for managing the day to day managment,
    From the original registration filing:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux, chair, Justin Eric Olsen, Vivek Rajeswaran, Farris G. Shuggi, Mike Signore, and Brian Solomon. The following information provides the year that the chair first joined the Firm and the chair’s specific business experience during the past five years (although the chair may have had portfolio management responsibilities for a longer period). Mr. Giroux has been chair of the committee since the fund’s inception. He joined the Firm in 1998, and his investment experience dates from that time. He has served as a portfolio manager with the Firm throughout the past five years. Messrs. Olsen, Rajeswaran, Shuggi, Signore, and Solomon have been co-portfolio managers of the fund since its inception. Mr. Olsen joined the Firm in 2014, and his investment experience dates from 2013. During the past five years, he was a member of the Quantitative team in the Fixed Income Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2021). Mr. Rajeswaran joined the Firm in 2012, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Shuggi joined the Firm in 2008, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he has served as a portfolio manager (beginning in 2016), prior to becoming head of quantitative equity. Mr. Signore joined the Firm in 2015, returning in 2020, and his investment experience dates from 2010. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Solomon joined the Firm in 2015 and his investment experiences dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). The Statement of Additional Information (SAI) provides additional information about the portfolio managers’ compensation, other accounts managed by the portfolio managers, and the portfolio managers’ ownership of the fund’s shares.
  • MPV and MCI bond funds
    @yugo. Yeah, all risk and return metrics in MFOP are based on NAV not Price, unfortunately. So, for mutual funds, insurance funds, NAV and Price are same, by definition, as I understand it. But not so for ETFs and CEFs, especially when lots of market volatility exists (March 2020) or with low volume trades.
    There are no funds in the database that have returned 10% or more annualized for 20 years with a MAXDD about -10% or less, except one: MPV. But again, that's NAV based. Here's chart from M* showing difference between NAV and Price for MPV. Clearly, a lot more volatility in Price.
    MPV NAV vs Price
    image
    I believe someone on board once quoted: "All NAVs are opinions." In the case of MPV, it's kind of like getting an appraisal on your house. Stays steady until next appraisal or until you go to sell. Taking the long view will help.
    BTW. The NAVs for MPV and MCI are only updated every three months.
    Here are a dozen Great Owl US funds with the lowest MAXDD over last 20 years that have also returned 10% annualized. There are actually about 450 funds that have returned that well, but typically with more pain.
    20-Year GOs with Lowest MAXDD and APR Above 10% Annualized
    image
    The dozen listed in table above are: Barings Participation Investors (MPV), Barings Corporate Investors (MCI), GMO Quality III (GQETX), Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select A Small Cap Value A (NEFJX), Alger Growth & Income A (ALBAX), Needham Aggressive Growth Retail (NEAGX), Amundi Pioneer Fundamental Growth A (PIGFX), FMI Common Stock Inv (FMIMX), Victory Sycamore Established Value R (GETGX), Williamsburg Government Street Opportunities (GVMCX), Fidelity Select Leisure Portfolio (FDLSX), and State Street Elfun Trusts (ELFNX).
    I suspect if MPV and MCI were open-ended funds, they would not be on the list.
    Hope this helps.
    c
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    Until today, I had not read this thread after the first two posts.
    When I discovered my mother does not receive the higher spousal benefit, I took my parents to my local SS office (when they retired, they moved States to live with me) and apply for the higher benefit. My parents said they had originally applied for the spousal benefit and they presumed to be getting that. They came out of the office and said the SS office employee said the benefits can not be changed after they started and sent them away. That was 15 years ago. So, for past 20 years, my mother has been cheated out of some of her benefit, I am not sure for whose benefit.
    I know people who did not receive unemployment benefits when they lost jobs while they paid unemployment insurance when employed.
    If you are a Govt employee, there are no consequences for screwing citizens.
    @Crash’s subsequent posts makes me nervous about my benefits when I apply because I was self employed 1/3rd of my working life.
    Laws are man made stuff. I do not quibble about their fairness or unfairness but I quibble about their implementation. If we do not have a rules based society, what do we have? Politicians make laws and if you do not like their behavior, you can fire them (vote them out) but you can not vote out a Govt employee.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    This is fun to listen to the crybabies! Carry on
    Hey, we listened to you folks crying for 4 years during Obama and 4 years during Biden. You listened to us the last Trump term so we owe you 4 more years of moaning about Trump. Then we'll be back to even so we can start again after the next election. :^)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu: thanks for the idea. I had not thought of contacting a company about offering a new fund. The outperformance of the Composite Index may very well due to the Mag 7 and other high-fliers being well represented. History tells us that these stocks can’t stay on a tear forever. I wish I understood better how various weighting schemes work and how (hypothetically) one could recommend one or the other method to employ for a new fund. Unfortunately, I’m a humanités guy, weak in math.
    MOAT had only one stumble shortly after it began trading, the methodology and reconstitution rules got tweaked, and success followed. It then outperformed the S&P 500 for many years and I was really pleased. I thought recent travails were temporary, but I’ve lost faith. Sounds as though you have substantial gains. I try to tell myself that gains are a good thing and that some of them will be offset by the sales of my bone-headed choices.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    So, the article writer feels there is no concern from the president elect, as regards to what has been said by him, regarding many wide reaching areas for/of the functions within the government and society. Hmmmm. Presidency, house and senate in full control by .....
    I've written several times over the years of 'this time is different' and adjusted a portfolio as necessary.
    I'll stay with 'this time is different' ,at this point in time.
    Everyone will seek their investment path, as needed.
  • Vanguard legacy mutual fund platform is closing the end of 2025
    They have been giving notice of this for years. TBH the brokerage site is better. You can trade ETFs, etc, and your settlement funds earns a very competitive interest date, currently 4.75% for VMFXX. There is still an option to fund Vanguard-only mutual fund purchases directly from your bank. Everything else has to go through the settlement fund, this is the same as every other brokerage firm, unless you have a margin account (which still trades against the margin settlement account, which you can fund later if you're feeling lucky.) You don't have to enable margin trading. It all works a lot smoother now that everyone has T+1 settlement.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    Nearly everything in my portfolios is green to very green today, which is fine by me.
    (I gave up trying to predict major market moves years ago.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC FWIW: The correlation between MRFOX and SPGP is .87 (So it's not really an alternative); MRFOX LT APR is 16.4%; SPGP is 14.4%; STDEV MRFOX 13.2; SPGP 16.4; MRFOX = Great Owl; SPGP No. Also, SPGP has underperformed the SP500 YTD, 1yr.; 3yr.; and 5yr.; but outperformed for 10yr. by .83%. Perhaps this information is helpful. Best.
    I would have been surprised if it was an alternative. If I knew what went into M*'s definition of quality I'ld be surprised if those factors weren't in MFO Premium. I spent many years working with data, among other things, so running screens is my idea of fun.
    The rest explains why it's not turning up in my screens these days, and why it's not in the IRA. :) It's not a purchase I rue; but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone else either.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Wage increase of +38% over 4 years means +8.385% annualized.
    $12K ratification bonus for 33K machinists means $396 million.
    Boeing raised $23.5 billion in stock and convertible preferreds to shore up its finances - amounts reported vary ($21.1-24.3 billion) because of several elements such as stock, preferred, line of credits, additional allotment to be sold. The underwriters got $300 million.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-raises-21-billion-capital-051740350.html
    https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732514
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-launches-offering-90-mln-common-shares-5-bln-depositary-shares-2024-10-28/
  • Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund being merged
    With numerous personnel departures at Matthews Asia Funds over the last few years,
    I'm not considering investing in any of their funds.
    As a former MAPIX and MAPTX investor, it's sad to see what has transpired at this once estimable firm.
  • Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund being merged
    Hmmm... Years ago, Horrocks was a genius, and Lou Rukheyser interviewed him as Manager of the year. Was it M* that selected him for the honor? I owned MACSX. Since then, I wonder if he has become the sand in the gears? Is the problem child making his exit? Or just moving to a different desk in the office?
  • the November issue of MFO is live!
    Though a bit shorter than usual (six stories instead of seven or eight) because I suspect it will be a bit hard to be heard above the clamor of the election. Just finished reading a story on coping with election anxiety which made good points even if it's a bit hard to chill out.
    Devesh, as I note in the publisher's letter, has been called back to active service in the world o' finance. I will miss his voice even though I cheer for his opportunities.
    Lynn continues to humble and inspire me with the breadth of his post-retirement vision and engagement. That continues this money with his advice on living paycheck-to-paycheck and his work with a group that helps folks facing that exact challenge.
    The unifying theme on the three fund specific pieces might be "a redemption story." AlphaCentric has been mightily troubled, into which CrossingBridge might bring an island of calm and strong performance. David Sherman is very sure that "approach with caution" is good advice for folks interested in AlphaCentric Real Income. His team is working to create a smooth portfolio transition and a valuable tool for you, but both with take time.
    Bridgeway is one of those groups whose culture is utterly admirable (from capping executive comp to donating half of their earnings to charity to have the senior people answer the phone when you call) but whose performance is streaky. Back in the days of Brill's MFI we used to have portfolio contests judged on monthly performance. If you wanted to use, toggle Bridgeway Ultra-Small with Bridgeway Ultra-Large and a soupcon of Technology Value was nearly unbeatable. For a long while Aggressive Investor (and not-quite-as Aggressive Investor II) were golden. Then ... In any case, they think they've found a powerful tool in their Intangible Capital Intensity metric, they've been running private money successfully with it and the lead manager built a $15 billion practice at QMA using a similar discipline.
    Even Tweedy, Browne has elements of redemption. They're 100 years old now, deeply committed to value and famously authors of What Has Worked in Investing. Except that it hasn't worked quite as it used to which has led Tweedy in the direction of "value in a new century" research. High dividend was one move, insider alignment (along with value) is the next. They rarely take impulsive steps, so I'll be curious to see how things play out.
    And The Shadow is chronicling a lot of active ETF from mutual fund guys and fund-to-ETF conversions, signs of a reorienting industry.
    Finally, you'll note our podcasting foray. Let me know if there's any gain there, and we can try using the tech on investing-specific articles. In theory it's just "upload and stand back." In practice, it takes five or six sets of revise-and-resubmit to get the "podcast hosts" to catch our meaning and direction. That said, if it works for folks, we'll do it.
    Cheers.
  • Credit cards and brokerages
    I have been using the Fidelity CC for years but switched mostly to Pended CC with 2% cash back
    https://www.penfed.org/credit-cards
    Because Pended superior customer service and easier claim filing.
    The other cards I have used for years are
    *The Pended 5% at all gas stations, you must pay at the pump.
    * Amazon CC paying 5% on Amazon purchases.
    * Schwab world ATM which pays back all fees when you take out cash.
  • Fidelity security calls getting blocked
    Thanks again @Observant1 for answering my query. I’ll give an authenticator a try first opportunity. I feel quite secure using the latest Apple IOS and running Norton (anti-spyware) software in the background. Plus secure wifi / cellular networks. But you can’t be too safe. OJ and others have shared tips on the safest browsers over the years.
    FWIW - I don’t find it difficult to memorize a 20 character password consisting of at least 2 each of the following: upper case letters, lower case letters, numbers, special characters (in random sequence). The trick is to formulate a short phrase in your mind incorporating them. For letters, each letter in the code corresponds to the first letter of a word in that phrase. There are other tricks. That’s not to say what I construct is as good as what a password manager could. I doubt it is. Fido usually grades my passwords as “strong” or “very strong” - but have yet to attain their ultimate highest grade. :)
    Here’s a quick one I constructed in a minute: FMDcIdGAD/Csb1142*CG
    Translated:
    F Frankly
    M My
    D Dear
    c comma
    i I
    d don’t
    G give
    A a
    D damn
    / space or hyphen mark
    C
    s
    b Shorthand for Casablanca
    1
    1 Month of release
    4
    2 Year of release
    * staring
    C Clark
    G Gable
    Password strength meter
  • Credit cards and brokerages
    For Verizon cellphone customers I call attention to their black Visa card (Synchrony), as for all food-related purchases, gas, and Vz purchases (including Fios service) it gives you 4%
    That's interesting. Verizon gives a $10 or $20 discount when you pay FiOS bills with autopay, so long as you don't pay by credit card. But it makes an exception for its own Verizon Visa. Doesn't work for me though. I've already got other cards that give me 5% on groceries and 4% on gas and can't see getting a card just for FiOS.
    A few bucks gets put on my United Visa each year just to keep the ~1M miles I have active
    United stopped expiring miles a few years ago. "Our miles never expire ..."
    Perhaps there's something special about keeping a 1M balance?
    If merchants neglect to mention surcharges for Mastercard or Visa purchases, they are not following defined rules for surcharging.
    In NYS, a merchant must disclose total price including credit card surcharges (in dollars) prior to sale. AFAIK it's an open question as to whether out-of-state merchants selling to NYS residents must comply.
    Still with CapitalOne at 1.5% for everything, no fee
    CapitalOne seems to have an excellent reputation, and as I noted above, price matches on its travel "portal", making its Venture cards more valuable than other banks' for travelers.
  • Fidelity security calls getting blocked
    @hank
    The Symantec VIP app is used for Two-Factor Authentication.
    I've used it for years at Fidelity and recently with a new Schwab account.
    I haven't had any issues with the app - it works as expected.
    Since Symantec VIP is only installed on my desktop computer,
    I can't comment on mobile versions of the app.
    I'd prefer Fidelity support hardware authentication devices (e.g., Yubikey),
    but this is probably the next best solution from a security standpoint.
    Do yourself a favor and try using a password manager app.
    I suffer from CRS (can't remember s***) so a password manager is very helpful.
    There's no way I'd remember strong passwords like =qaDg|I$%3g/IIa*zKzn from memory.