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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest: Charles Ellis: The Index Revolution:
    Hi Guys,
    This post simply adds more grist to the Indexing mill.
    Many other posts that address this debate have appeared on MFO recently. Here is an internal Link to one of my more recent contributions to this matter:
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/29128/attacking-active-fund-managers-yet-again
    Like Ted, although I'm fully fimilar with the primary arguements that tilt towards an Index portfolio, my portfolio is a mix of both passive and active products. I like the excitement.
    Over many decades, Ellis has advocated an Index approach. Nothing new there. But I did learn something new from the referenced video. I had never heard of comparing a bond with an expected lifetime earning income. Taken the validity of that analogy, Ellis concludes that a portfolio should only have a very lightweight commitment to a bond component.
    I'm a natural for an Index portfolio. I don't wake up worrying the stock market. Stock price volatility doesn't influence my decisions whatsoever. I don't know the current value of my portfolio. I'll check its value once a year to determine what my minimum required withdrawal rate demands in terms of action.
    I satisfy the Ellis definition and model of a very, very long-term investor. Nothing much troubles me. I prepared well for my and my wife's retirement years.
    Best Wishes.
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @Old_Joe Certainly not offended by you or most comments or posters on this site. I've also been amused quite often by Ted( see below ).But I've also gotten the "woodshed" treatment . I had to search this site for " ship " to recover my January post.Try the search feature for most any topic and notice some of the people that have left the site or rarely add their opinion/investment experiences. As far as I'm concerned, we've lost some people that added to discussions such as this one.I thought Ted's comment in this discussion a bit condescending.
    @Old_Joe
    PS Watching the Giants. 30 hits ! Bumgarner vs De Grom ? Dodger/Giant rivalry alive and well. The "Bum" vs the Bums .
    @Ted said 'Just remember, every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room !'
    One of your better ones Ted They found another one ! And the chartists are more bearish by the .... hour?
    image
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/73731/#Comment_73731
    by ALEXANDER SMITH JAN 13 2016, 8:19 AM ET
    Experts hunting for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 have discovered wreckage on the seabed. However, it's at least 100 years old and has nothing to do with the missing jet
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    Think of this as several different bubbles expanding and than popping inside of bigger and bigger bubbles. Etc. Etc.
    So ... these bubbles will not pop all at the same time. Expect a wild ride as that process slowly unwinds over many years.
    Caveat: I don't know anything about bonds, but markets seldom move in a straight line.
    Regards :)
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @davidmoran - One of the things people don't pay enough attention to when looking at tax efficiency is what one gets, after-tax, when cashing out.
    Though DSENX appears to have a similar tax cost to LCV long term figures (in the 1.5% ballpark), this is not taking into account the hidden tax liability it's carrying due to NAV appreciation. In contrast to DSENX, the LCV funds are not carrying the same untaxed appreciation. That makes DSENX less tax efficient as I'll explain below.
    First a simple example - compare a savings bond with a hypothetical fund, both returning 5% pre-tax. Savings bond interest is tax-deferred until the bond is cashed out. We'll assume that our fund generates only long term gains, but that it recognizes all of its gains annually. So if it starts with $100, at the end of the year it's made $5 in cap gains, on which $1 tax is paid (20% top rate, ignoring Medicare surtax), and has only $104 invested going forward.
    If the investor cashes out at the end of ten years, the savings bond will have appreciated to $169.89, but after paying 39.6% taxes on the $69.89 gain, is left with only $138 (well, $137.99). The fund, which was tax-inefficient (distributing 100% of its gains yearly) is worth $148 (okay, $148.02). Since taxes were paid on appreciation as it went along, there are no gains recognized on the sale.
    The totally inefficient fund came out way ahead, because although it kept distributing income, that was low tax rate income.
    What you're seeing with DSENX isn't quite as stark, but similar. The LCV funds are distributing most of their income, but that tends to be lower-tax rate qualified divs. DSENX has a similar total return, but is distributing a smaller portion of its total return. Like the savings bond, it has a greater tax liability when cashed out than do the LCV funds which are more similar to the dividend paying hypothetical fund.
    Even though DSENX is paying out a smaller percentage of its total return, the tax on that payout (tax cost) is similar to the tax on the LCV distributions. That's because the DSENX distributions come from bonds, and are thus taxed mostly at the higher ordinary income tax rate.
    That's the key to the tax inefficiency of funds like this. They take what ought to be a tax-efficient investment (long term stock holdings) and mimic its total return, but in a tax-inefficient way (using bonds).
    FWIW, Fidelity reports that the long term (10 year) tax cost ratio for LCV funds is 1.12%, less than the 1.5 ballpark I suggested above.
    ---
    Briefly, why I don't like ETNs' risk - they're effectively bonds of a single issuer. If you were investing in bonds, would you put so much money into the bonds of one company, or would you diversify? Why or why not? What if you really, really trusted that one company?
    It's similar but not identical to a risk in buying insurance (you're just another creditor to the insurance company). But with insurance, regulators see to it that the company has a certain level of reserves, and there are also state guarantee funds. No such controls or backstops here.
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    So far, DSENX has done what it has promised. It is one of a class of funds typically offered by bond houses (e.g. MetWest, PIMCO, DoubleLine) where the sponsor tries to apply its bond expertise to the equity market via derivatives.
    Looking at a funds like PSTKX, it seems that it is possible to add some value above an index. PSTKX long term (15 years) has added about 40 basis pts/year. According to its prospectus, DSENX has added about half that (per year) for its first 26 months of existence (through December 2015). It has done much better in 2016, though.
    So the performance (relative to an index) may be sustainable, especially with a good bond fund manager. But there is risk in the technique, which can have short term blowups. In contrast, an ETN by design has no tracking risk (beyond bid/ask spread). But it does have credit risk (backed only by its sponsor, not with any real securities in a portfolio).
    I'm no fan of ETNs, so on that basis alone I'd take DSENX over CAPE. But that's me.
    DSENX or any of its ilk belongs strictly in a tax-sheltered account. Holding bonds in lieu of equity, their tax efficiency is horrendous. In contrast, stock and bond ETNs are supposed to be extremely tax efficient (more so than ETFs). So that could tip the balance the other way in a taxable account.
    Have I equivocated sufficiently? :-)
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    The fact sheet and prospectus both state that "The Fund’s investment objective is to seek total return which exceeds the total return of its benchmark index."
    The fact sheet goes further to claim that the benchmark is the S&P 500. (In case there's any doubt, the benchmark returns it gives are S&P 500 performance figures.) But that's not the index the fund's designed to beat.
    The prospectus states clearly: "The Fund seeks total return (capital appreciation and current income) in excess of the Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector TR USD Index (the “Index")."
    This is important because it means that if one is comparing performance with the S&P 500, one is making the wrong comparison. The prospectus gives comparisons against both the S&P 500 and the CAPE® index. The fact sheet's omission of CAPE® index figures strikes me as downright deceptive.
    Similarly, the webcast page shows the fund handily beating the S&P 500 since inception, but doesn't give performance figures for the CAPE® index that it is tracking. It is true that the fund has beaten this index also since inception, but by a much smaller margin, and the fund fell short in 2015.
    Beating the true index that a fund is "enhancing" is what's hard. It's why AlphaTrak for example is just slightly ahead of its benchmark index (which really is the S&P 500 for that fund) over five years, while slightly behind over 10 and 15 years.
    The whole thing strikes me as similar to corporations reporting adjusted EBITDA instead of GAAP. If you want objective facts and figures, you need to go to the standardized, legal documents.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/wsj-looks-non-gaap-earnings-horrified-what-it-finds
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?

    Agree COMPLETELY. To me, a 'heavyweight' manager does not live on TV networks or press coverage, and does not focus on raising their AUM at every opportunity....in fact, hopefully they're fairly anonymous! I hold mutual funds for the long haul (as in "old school" long-term, meaning years and decades) so I want them, like their managers, to be boring, hardworking, and laboring in the background as they grind my money higher in a controlled manner.
    There are indeed some "heavyweight" managers out there. Fortunately, most of them are not media darlings. My definition of of "heavyweight manager" is probably different from other folks. I think of them as people who quietly grind away, year after year, seldom making headlines, but continuing to give their funds' shareholders solid returns. There may be an occasional disappointing year, but never a really bad year. And in most cases, these managers let their investors sleep at night without worry. Another reason for fewer heavyweights is that many funds are now run by a team, which is a smart move on the part of fund companies, I think.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?
    Hi Guys,
    Heavy weight fund managers do exist, but they do not persist. Yesterday's winners are likely to be tomorrow's losers. That's a fair summary of the historical record that is repeated time and time again.
    “So if you can get a couple of decent years together and a decent story and then slide quietly into mediocrity, it’s a recipe for success for your fund company, and a recipe for disappointment for investors.” Thea's not me talking. That's a quote from Professor Snowball.
    Fund managers do a terrific job at stock selection that would generate a positive Alpha without integrating research and trading costs into the equation. Most managers can not consistently overcome that frictional drag.
    With a very few rare exceptions who can not be identified ahead of time, heavy weight fund managers are a myth. That's a major factor in the increasingly popular passive Index investment strategy. Actively managed mutual funds are becoming an ever decreasing fraction of my portfolio. I tend to apply lessons learned slowly.
    EDIT: Sorry, I neglected to include a reference to the article that I extracted the David Snowball quote from. Here it is:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/90-of-fund-managers-beat-the-market-but-their-shareholders-dont-2015-01-21
    Best Wishes.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?
    FYI: Almost five years ago, when Bill Miller left the Legg Mason Value Trust — the mutual fund he once led to an astounding 15 straight calendar years of beating the S&P 500 — the question was whether the lasting memory of his career would be one of legendary success or epic failure.
    Last week, when it was announced that Miller would formally break ties with Legg Mason after more than three decades, the answer was clear: the pains speak louder than the achievements.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whatever-happened-to-the-heavyweight-mutual-fund-managers-2016-08-16/print
  • Lewis Braham: Is Your Fund Manager On Your Team? It's Hard To Tell
    The full disclosure is not a requirement, but smaller shops tend to be do a better job. Just because Chris Davis funds disclosed the size of his personal stake in the Davis fund, it doesn't mean I want to invest with them either. The large financial allocation contributed to more volatility in recent years.
  • Fund Focus: Jensen Quality Growth Fund
    Recency is awesome! Be sure not to compare JENSX w FCNTX, PRBLX, or indeed RPG *except* at the 1y and 2y mark.
    JENSX slightly beats out FCNTX, PRBLX, and RPG during the last 3 years; JENSX beats out FCNTX and slightly beats out PRBLX during the last 5 years (essentially tied with PRBLX over the last 5 years), but slightly loses to RPG over the last 5 years. This according to Morningstar data. The 3 and 5 year time periods are long enough to compare, at least for me.
  • Fund Focus: Jensen Quality Growth Fund
    Yep, it's amazing how much even a partial year's returns can color a fund's overall relative record. I finally got that thru my thick head only in the last couple of years.
    Jensen was okay but not great for years, then started a run in Q4 15. The discipline they follow is pretty great, though.
  • Commodities Broad Basket
    Bobpa,
    This is a good way to start an argument. Similar to holding gold, there's no simple cut & dry answer, but the question is likely to provoke strong feelings.
    As one who has routinely maintained a 5-7% stake in what I consider real assets for a couple decades, the only thing I can say definitively is that they tend to run hot and cold, helping returns in some years and hurting in others. (Last year they had me pulling my hair out and this year they've had me jumping with glee). Honestly, I don't think they've made much of a difference over the past two decades.
    My simple explanation for holding a limited amount is that I feel that for retirees inflation is a greater long term threat than deflation. I could be completely wrong on that last assumption, but that's been my reason. (I'd define real assets broadly to include things like: commodities, natural resources & energy producers, precious metals, and real estate.
    Regards
  • Commodities Broad Basket
    Hi @Bobpa,
    I have dabbled in commodity funds (PCRAX & JCRAX) in the past ... and, I have made money in both of them. Over the past five years I would have lost money if I had stayed invested in them. I, like you, have been thinking of reestablishing a position in a commodity fund (JCRAX) in my specialty/theme sleeve held in the growth area of my portfolio. However, I am thinking the better time to do this would be in a market pullback rather than now since the markets are at, or towards, all time highs even though commodities might not be but their producers have had a nice upward run with the markets. JCRAX holds a good number of producers while PCRAX trades more in commodity paper. With this, I am looking more towards JCRAX since part of the fund holds producers plus it can also trade in commodity paper (contracts).
    It is interesting that you bring this up.
    Now, I wonder if the talking heads start to talk commodities?
  • 4 low cost MF to boost your portfolio
    Ha. I averaged into PRNEX beginning about a year ago when it seemed no one wanted it. As the author says, the ER beats many similar funds (and many of T.Rowe's other growth funds as well). Heavy on refiners. I've been slowly averaging out since oil got back above $40.
    What's really funny is that even the fund's manager sounded bearish six-months to a year ago. (I got the impression he was telling people not to buy his fund.) :) His take (as related thru fund reports) was that energy and commodities were only mid-way through a multi-year bear likely to last several more years. (Someone linked an interview here wherein he made that point.)
    He may still be proven right, but as of yesterday PRNEX was up 21% YTD. It's more aggressive than I normally hold in my equity portion, preferring their tamer PRWCX. But in comparing PRNEX to their other growth funds, I suspect it still has a lot of catching-up to do in the next few years. Just a hunch. Will resume scaling out as the fund's price rises above $35.
    FWIW
  • Bill Miller And Legg Mason Part Ways
    Lots of misinformation all around. The article says that Legg Mason Opportunity Trust is seven years old. While its class A shares (LGOAX) began Feb 3, 2009, the fund itself (Class C, formerly Primary Class) LMOPX began December 30, 1999.
    M*'s profile of Bill Miller (the text on the fund's management page) says that Bill Miller currently co-manages Legg Mason Value Trust (i.e. the 15-year streak fund). He ended that in 2012. The fund (LMVTX) doesn't even carry the Legg Mason name - it was renamed years ago to Clearbridge Value (a Legg Mason brand).
    This seems like a formality - Legg Mason has been inching Miller out for years. Bloomberg has a better article.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-11/bill-miller-buys-legg-mason-s-stake-in-his-fund-company-lmm
  • Fund Focus: Jensen Quality Growth Fund
    FYI: The Jensen Quality Growth Fund has been one of the best-performing large-cap growth funds over the past few years, even as the stock market has hit plenty of potholes and many other active fund managers have lagged behind the market.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-this-stock-fund-has-beaten-the-market-through-thick-and-thin-2016-08-11/print
    M* Snapshot JENRX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/JENRX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot JENRX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/JENRX
    JENRX Is Ranked #13 In The (LCG) fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/jensen-quality-growth-fund/jenrx
  • Bill Miller And Legg Mason Part Ways
    FYI: Bill Miller and Legg Mason [profile] are parting ways after 35 years together.
    Today the famed value-equity PM confirms that he plans to buy out the 50-percent stake in his shop, LMM, that had been owned by Legg Mason. Once the deal closes, Legg Mason reveals, "Miller, together with companies he controls, will own 100% of LMM." LMM, like Legg Mason, is based in Baltimore.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.mfwire.com/article.asp?storyID=54590&bhcp=1
  • big crash coming?
    Another day, another dire prophecy from the Gloom, Boom, and Doom guy...... *yawn*
    For him and others in the perma-bear camp, "The Big One" has been coming for years. It may still take years to materialise. Ergo, just ignore market 'calls' and do what you think is best that lets you sleep well at night. :)
    I do think there will be a reckoning -- but I'm sure not going to try trading it in advance.
  • T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund to reopen to new investors

    That didn't take long.
    (I hold PRHSX and have been mulling reducing my position recently due to the management turnover in recent years.)