Thoughts on Gold? Howdy PopTart,
I too have been watching the space very closely and actually added to my VERY small positions with junior silver miners just yesterday.
First of all I am still of the mind that everyone should have a wee bit of precious metals in their portfolio. By wee, I'm talking 3-10%. I consider this to be a security blanket type of investment (something for that EOTWAWKI moment). My grandkids have their bed buddies and my pm holding is my bed buddy.
More pm than this core holding is speculation. Speculation is fine and fun so long as you realize the risks. Is now a good time to speculate? What do I know? When I play with investments, speculate, if you will, I lean towards momentum investing. In this I look for trends and when they appear, gradually scale in to my target amount - as long as the trend (momentum) is with me. Let's say you think this nascent trend in the pm's is going to last, and you figure you have $10K to play. Invest $2500 and see if you make money. If you do, add another $2500 and again, see if you make money. If you do, go with the remaining $5K. If at any time it doesn't make money - do not add any more. If it loses, or starts to, have a mental stop loss of say 5-10% at which point, you start scaling out of the play. If it drops some more - exit. This momentum style investing and my penchant for this particular arena, is why I added to my junior silver miners yesterday.
Now as for investing in pms. Funds and ETFs are of two types - bullion and mining stocks. Bullion ETFs will tax your gains at the Collectible rate of 28%. My favorite fund is still TGLDX which does have a little bullion but is taxed at normal cap gain rates. Or, you can go with CEF, a closed end bullion fund that is about 55/45 gold to silver. Or you can go with mining stock funds, ETFs or individual stocks. Lastly, and this is important to many people. For you core holding in pm's, the 'hard corps' recommend holding the physical metal. Although some peeps like safe deposit boxes and such, cripes, a roll of American Gold Eagles comes in a tube 2" tall and the size of a quarter. You can hide it in the oatmeal box and it's worth ~$25,000.
All this said, at this point in time, based upon the metrics of the gold/XAU and gold/silver ratios, miners are undervalued vs. bullion and silver is undervalued vs. gold. Note that this is on the margin. The great leverage is with the junior miners but this is also nose bleed territory. My only homerun in about 40 years of investing was with Silver Wheaton that I bought around 2002-3 for under 3 that I sold in the 40's. Cha-ching!
Right now there are several geopolitical factors at play. China's economy has slowed and they have been fairly steady gold buyers both by the CB and by individuals. The threat of terrorist attacks has really spooked the traveling public and this fear translates in to bullion demand. We also have the zika virus shutting down travel to central and south American and I am far from convinced that Rio is going to be able to even have the Olympics. Oh, and did I forget the Saud family's gas war to end all gas wars? And with Iran coming online, I don't see oil much higher than today for quite a while.
Now all this stuff is what Fear and Loathing are made of (where's Hunter?).
BUT when all is said and done, the POG is dependent upon the price of the U.S. Dollar. Because gold is priced in terms of the dollar and the dollar is the world's reserve currency, they normally are indirectly proportional and this has greatly contributed in the pull back in bullion prices from it's high of ~$1900 in 2011. Recall that the great bull market ran from 2002-3 until this time and commodity bull markets normally last in the 12-15 range. This is due to the complexity of bringing additional supply online in response to higher demand and prices (e.g. you have to find it).
As for the dollar, I've said it was trash since they started QE-nth but compared to any alternative currency, it is still the cleanest pair of dirty socks in the hamper. Lately, it's been showing some weakness but due to ???? Although, I'm starting to sense a negative impact on the dollar caused by the anger of the general public directed at Washington is the support for Trump and Sanders.
Sorry to ramble on,
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
COP down 7% @vktWith what you noted, and the words just before and after in that paragraph:
"CEO goes to his executive team and says this year's bonus plan will be tied to the share price at the end of the period" Ya......reminder of one of a company(s) mantra......"increase shareholder" value.
So many established companies lose their vision of what got them to where they may have arrived, and it wasn't through share buybacks.
A sadly sad state of affairs for too many organizations and their worker bees.
I could scream and rant and tell stories of things gone wrong for companies, but it is too early on a Saturday morning; as I would have to strap a blood pressure device onto my arm.
Wishing that I had the desire and/or skills to do a complete review of changes in the accepted and apparently legal changes in accounting standards from 20
years ago and currently used by corporations.
The best that may be obtained for this house is to "play" around the edges with being an "investor" attempting to continue to dodge the bullets arriving from any direction. Too many days find we small folk are way out of our league against the large, fast, the machines and other, eh?
Take care,
Catch
All Asset, All Authority.... All Out? Yes, I remember drinking the cool-aid after this fund was so highly praised on this board 3 or 4 years ago. Luckily I didn't stay in long. I still remember Ted saying no one needs this fund or funds like it - they're losers. Good old Ted is right more times then not. I think it is still true about most of these 'alternative/market neutral/long short' funds out there today. They aren't going to beat a good balanced fund over time.