Gold Closing Out The Week At Five Year Lows Many things are at/near 5 year lows, including emerging-market equities (EEM), emerging-market debt in local-currencies (EMLC), most commodities (DBC), MLPs (MLPI). Looking at a 5-year chart, without doing anything else, and drawing inferences as to the investment merit of an asset is... foolhardy.
AU/USD, like most of the investment classes cited above are a function of the strength of the USD. --- I say this, because AU, while down in USD terms, is NOT down across all currencies. Its down vs. USD, GBP, SFR over 5 years. AU is also down vs CNY -- but then CNY's is (usually-) manipulated to track the USD. However AU is UP vs the CAD$, Yen, rand, rupee, AU$, ruble and MXP. AU is (essentially) flat vs. EUR.
The strength in the USD is itself a function not of American economic strength, but of our economy being the "cleanest dirty shirt", and of waning commodity demand from China. No one can foresee when these trends will reverse, but I suspect, they will reverse/mean-revert at some time. I suspect AU will still experience a "capitulation panic", however, generally assets are best bought when they are cheap, not dear. US equity enthusiasts should keep that in mind, as we are now in the 7th year of a very, VERY high-return equity bull. No tree grows to the sky.
AU can be first/foremost thought of as portfolio insurance -- providing diversification of returns over long periods of time. During the past 5 years, US equities have done wonderfully. So US equity investors were rewarded, while their AU holdings declined. OTOH, during the 2000-2010 period, equity returns languished/were lousy, but bullion holders were well rewarded.
For anyone dis-enchanted with their bullion holdings, I have a standing offer: contact me, and I will be happy to haul away any of your unwanted bullion, and I won't charge you a fee for the service, not a dime.
Bogle: Stocks 6%, Bonds 3% @Old_Skeet,
So, in short words I should expect about half of what I received from the market going forward for the next ten years when compared to the past ten year period.
I concur with the range of 4% total return. Not quite as bearish as GMO forcast earlier, but unlikely to match the historical averages.
Bogle: Stocks 6%, Bonds 3% Interesting ...
I took the anticipated returns as noted in the article for bonds at 3% and stocks at 6% and I ran a forecast of what my portfolio would be expected to return based upon it's current asset allocation. It bubbled close to 4%. According to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager in doing a ten year lookback (portfolio's current configuration) returned better than 8%. So, in short words I should expect about half of what I received from the market going forward for the next ten years when compared to the past ten year period. With this, I just may have to make some special investment positions from time-to-time if I want to better these projected return estimates as I'd like to at least average 5% to 6%; and, I don't want to be fully invested in stocks to do it. So, it looks as though I will have to make those spiff investment positions, from time-to-time, to achieve my return goal.
Two Vanguard Mutual Fund Managers To Retire By Middle Of 2016 Maybe there are many money managers taking a look down the road they imagine and not much liking what they imagine could happen. And so, having made some very good money for themselves, some are concluding they just don't want to play that rough game anymore. It isn't just the greybeards. Just saw a blimp about Brett Lynn, manager of Janus Overseas, about to walk away from his charge at the end of 2015. He's still a young guy, hitting his prime years, yet he's had enough.
Just wondering. Given the number of liquidations being reported by The Shadow, there should be no shortage of possible replacements.
DoubleLine Funds planning expansion in rather dicey times I would like to see Gundlach start an unconstrained fund of his best ideas not exclusively tied to bonds, such as when he recommended shorting Apple and the yen a few years ago, and now I believe he is big on the Indian market, at least for the long term.
Barry Ritholtz: Gold Miners Are A Trade, Not An Investment Yes and no in my opinion VintageFreak. I think broad range index ETFs like the S&P 500 are definitely investing tools. I would even say more so then a managed large cap fund for many people who are seem tempted to jump to the fund of the month. Heck, see it here all the time.
Specific sector funds like gold minors, a perfect example, are certainly a traders tool. And for the last 8+ years more of a Las Vegas betting tool. Most people will loose with the minors. I think Barry is right-on point.
Utilities ETF "But [ I ] am considering PNM as a bond equivalent in my taxable portion when one of my bonds cashes in mid 2016. "
slick, PNM is a
stock that fell -28% in '07 and another -50% in '08. From the M* graph it looks like it took almost 7
years to come back to it's '07 peak value. Bond equivalent??? My goodness.
Portfolio Tracker Do Yahoo or Fidelity show total return for mutual funds? I know only Morningstar, that provides such data.
Yes, like Ted linked above, but not several funds on a single page like you can set up with M* Portfolio Mgr. I still keep watchlists at M* for comparing returns for different periods, P/Es, P/Bs, standard deviation, etc., but do price and account return tracking mostly through the Fidelity account.
M* would be fine for all of it if they could manage timely, consistent price reporting -- but it's past time to give up on them for that -- the "portfolio manager not updated" thread on the M*.com discussion forum is several
years long at this point.
3 Biggest Mutual Funds Not Worth The Fees That is for sure with the declining quality of journalism. Both WSJ and Barrons have been reducing their senior editor headcount and one have to select what to read (and forget the rest). I no longer keep my subscription to Barrons years ago.
Mutual Fund Cutline Report I don't know how Ulli came up with his TTI system. However, there's any number of ways one could develop a long-term market-timing system with moving average(s), curve-fit to a stock index for a given period of years of price data. One could use intersections of an MA with the price line, or crossings of 2 MAs themselves, all based on either daily, weekly, or even monthly data. Further, the MAs could be SMAs or EMAs.
Yeah, but my point is he seems to be suggesting "When my TTI says BUY, look for funds above the cutline" and the cutline is 39 Week SMA. I'm reading this as, "Buy the funds that are strong" or "Buy the fund as long as they are above the cutline" or "Best to avoid funds that are below the cutline" OR...whatever. Why the farce of the TTI then, is my question.
Let's see when he generates a signal whether it matches with 39-week SMA crossover.
Mutual Fund Cutline Report I don't know how Ulli came up with his TTI system. However, there's any number of ways one could develop a long-term market-timing system with moving average(s), curve-fit to a stock index for a given period of years of price data. One could use intersections of an MA with the price line, or crossings of 2 MAs themselves, all based on either daily, weekly, or even monthly data. Further, the MAs could be SMAs or EMAs.
3 Biggest Mutual Funds Not Worth The Fees I think I've commented on this particular writer before. So many writers come in with a cliche point of view but fail to martial their facts.
"
The expenses are higher (and returns lower) for other share classes of the [PIMCO] Total Return fund, such as B-share class (PTTCX)"
He's writing about something that doesn't exist (anymore). PTTBX (not PTTCX) vanished around the end of 2014, when the last of the B shares automatically converted to A shares. (Nov. 2009 prospectus closed this share class, and the shares purchased in the
years preceding that closure converted 5
years from purchase. That's why Shadow won't - I think - find any explicit termination of PTTBX.)
"
Looking at performance, ABNDX loses to the index in the one-, three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year returns."
Furthermore, the holdings for ABNDX average out to be intermediate-term bonds with an A credit rating. This type of bond fund fills the space of a core holding, which is the same for VBMFX."
Why not just hold a bond index fund?Perhaps because looking at performance, VBMFX loses to ABNDX in the YTD-, three-, and five-year returns? Or perhaps because, as John Bogle
points out, bond index funds hold too much in treasuries?
I'm not saying that one couldn't reach the same conclusions
in spite of the amended facts I provided. Just that there are lots of financial "writers" who seem more intent on making points (or filling space) than backing them up with accurate facts.
Portfolio Tracker Morningstar's portfolio tracker has had real problems updating properly for years now. They can't seem to fix it. Where is the best alternative place to set up a portfolio of mutual funds that will update as promptly as possible each day?
Utilities ETF PNM is my local utility, thought I would post this for your interest in PNM. I really like PNM, they are very generous with nonprofits and a good public servant. Besides, since I have solar panels, I don't pay for my electricity - usually its $0 after balancing out the months I pay (winter months) vs the generating months (March - October). I get 300 days of sun each year, thats when it really works. After having lived in Cleveland for 13
years in 70s and 80s where its cloudy 300 days each year, it's nice :)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/n-m-supreme-court-dismisses-231100416.html
Chuck Jaffe Money Life Show: Guest: Alan Gayle, Director Asset Allocation, RidgeWorth Investments Any thoughts on Foreign Developed Markets US Hedged options?
Maybe PIPDX
Short Term Bonds?
Maybe VSTBX, MWLDX, ACSNX, FMEQX, FSHBX, WSHNX (most with Manager Tenure of 15+ years)
High Yield Bond:
Maybe BUFHX, FAGIX, CIOZX
DoubleLine Total Return As A Core Bond Holding "Doubleline has been in the right places at the right times over the last several
years. However, that doesn’t make them infallible to an incorrect call on interest rates or underperformance as bond market trends change. As with any active strategy, it’s important to regularly monitor the fund’s performance versus its peer group and benchmark to ascertain that they are achieving returns in line with your goals and realistic expectations."
Article:
fmdcapital.com/why-i-still-like-doubleline-total-return-as-a-core-bond-holding/
Chuck Jaffe Money Life Show: Guest: Alan Gayle, Director Asset Allocation, RidgeWorth Investments Thanks to
@Ted for the post and
@Old_Skeet for the comment. I have been considering an investment in
SVCAX for 3 or so
years. Hearing the interview makes me more comfortable with the manager (but I am not ready to commit to this particular fund). His current perspectives on the Treasury and Corporate bond markets were particularly interesting.
Goldman's BRIC Era Ends As Fund Folds After Years Of Losses FYI: The BRIC era is coming to an end at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The bank’s asset-management unit folded its money-losing BRIC fund, which invests in Brazil, Russia, India and China, and merged it last month with a broader emerging-market fund. Goldman Sachs pulled the plug on the nine-year-old product because it doesn’t expect “significant asset growth in the foreseeable future,” according to a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/goldman-s-bric-era-ends-as-fund-closes-after-years-of-losses
