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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    We’ve got about 15% of total assets in our IRAs invested in foreign stock funds. Largest and longest term holding is ARTKX, which is closed to new investors. Other foreign funds are FTIEX, FVIFX and FMIJX, all relatively new holdings with good long term returns. We also have substantial holdings in FLPSX, which is essentially a global fund. All of our foreign funds have performed well over the past year, a welcome development after dismal returns for many years.
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    I have a very large percentage of my Schwab CDs maturing. I was very pleased to see the rates that are being offered-5.4% for very short term periods, 5.35% for 1 year, 5.2% for 18 months, and 5% for 2 years. As a 76 year old retiree, these CDs are very compelling as a safe investment, for a large part of my portfolio. I continue to maintain an 18-month CD-ladder. I just added two 18 month CDs, one from Wells Fargo and one from Bank of America, paying 5.2%. Tomorrow, I plan on adding a 1-year CD, paying 5.3%. Will likely do more CD shopping next week. For more liquid options, Schwab is still offering MMs, paying over 5%, but MM rates have been dropping in the past couple of months. As long as CDs stay at these higher levels, I am a willing investor, but I am skeptical that they will stay at these levels much longer, but who really knows for sure?
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    @stillers @hank @balubalu thanks very much for the feedback. Yes Stillers you were the one who steered me to GSIYX …. Thank you for suggesting I take a look. And you’re right I haven’t found another diversified international fund that has consistently outperformed over last 10 years. One interesting fund that @Benwp suggested is BISAX. It has outperformed since 2021 and is way up this year but had a pretty significant MAXDD in 2022.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    Hi @mikeW, I hope we can have a column for you in the coming month's MFO on International Equities allocation as Part I. Will try and write about funds next month.
    That would be wonderful Devo! Thank you. Would be very interested in hearing your thoughts on the case for investing internationally…. They haven’t matched US performance for 15 years or more
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    What is the outlook for dollar?
    Dollar bottomed in 2008-11 around 72. Now it is 104.66, so +45.36% of the cumulative US fund outperformance in the last dozen years is just due to the currency factor.
    Many diversified funds (including TDFs) may have substantial exposure to foreign markets, but not enough for them to be labeled global.
  • Conversation Between Jeff Gundlach and David Rosenberg (fairly recent)
    Rosenberg is a known bear...and bears are usually wrong.
    01/2019 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bear-david-rosenberg-125800678.html) "growth will turn negative in 2019 as the stock market flounders". SPY made over 31%
    01/2024 (https://themarket.ch/interview/now-is-a-good-time-to-take-profits-and-thank-your-lucky-stars-ld.10391) "Good time to take profit" SPY made over 11%.
    Mr G, used to be the bond king, but he has been naked for years.
    FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
    "Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
    Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
    ====================
    MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
    G: stocks will go higher from here
    Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
    ==================
    August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
    Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
    ==================
    Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
    EM should out perform. Reality: they under performed
    Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 31%.
    The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
    ==================
    Gundlach, the king (without cloths) of bonds, predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
    Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu- I'm a little confused by "if there is no fees being charged, then you know for sure it is a new issue", because I frequently buy secondary Treasury issues at Schwab which show "No Fee" on the trade ticket. That would seem to suggest different rules for Treasuries vs Agencies?
    You have to read the sentence you quoted in the context it was written. You might also find my previous post from earlier today useful.
    To specifically answer your question, “Yes.” See the Schwab pricing link in my post
    I have always found Fidelity site easier to buy bonds. Also, more dealers seem to list their inventory on the Fidelity platform. Just to have at least two good brokerages for these products, I have shared many of Fidelity features with Schwab but Schwab are slow to them. Having said that I did buy some secondary Treasuries at Schwab.
    In advocating for term limits for political offices, I have always claimed that it should not take more than two years to be good at one’s job if one has aptitude for it but I am starting to question my judgement as I discover brokerage Reps with more than five years fixed income experience guessing answers to my questions.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I'm away now until 12 June. Enjoy, everyone. 5 years since I've been "off the Rock." Of course, everything is in the crapper today. And somehow, the TS div. date has a new published day: 29th now, not 22nd, as previously published. And how does THAT s*** happen, eh? Adios.
  • Kelcy Warren: a kid in a candy shop? (ET) news release
    Indeed. They've been on a spending spree lately, for better or worse.
    I'm sure a lot of people who were Kelcy'd years ago are watching things (and their distributions!) very closely....
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    i've been 70 in july, too -- the 24th. so you're going to set it up now, to go into effect when?
    Oh, heavens, no. Not yet. But I've been following some decent advice without realizing it, for a few years, already: Take a small chunk from the T-IRA to reduce the raw dollar amount in that IRA, in order to at least slightly reduce the amount of the RMD, when the time comes. We've been growing the taxable account, since we don't owe federal 1040 tax, anyhow.
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    I've been taking RMDs since 2007. Tax withholding has always been a question I think about each year. Since starting RMDs, I have used the Electronic Tax Payment System,(EFTPO), to make automatic quarterly payments. After filing our tax return for the previous year, generally in March, I set up the quarterly payments for the current year.
    I see that many of you have the brokerage firm withhold tax from the RMD. Is that an easier way to handle it? You would still have to contact the brokerage firm each year to change the amount, would you not?
    " . . . to change the amount . . . "
    The RMD for the year? Schwab calculates it automatically. The percent of tax you want taken out for Fed and state will stay the same unless you change it.
    I always round my monthly RMD up to some sort of even number, so then the annual amount is also an even number and will be few hundred more than I actually need - just to be on the safe side.
    Being self-employed, I paid quarterly tax estimates for 36 years. Now I had the choice of monthly payments so I took that route, it's less shocking than writing out those big checks. I actually got a tax refund this year, first time since 1981. I am going to tweak the percent taken out to get that as close to zero as is reasonable.
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    Five years out for us. Plenty of time for them to change the rules again.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yield to call on bonds trading under par will always be higher, because it adds the percentage difference between purchase price and call price to the “yield” of the bond itself.
    Bonds trading above par can have a yield to call less than coupon yield (unless first call is SEVERAL years out).
    Thanks. This late in the rate cycle, if I need education on these basics, I need to be committed! I have not seen a single new Agency issued in the past year for anything other than par. I was asking for specifics related to the specific bond that makes Mike come up with those differences. See the request for CUSIP!
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    One of the reasons I went with Roth conversions years ago. @Tarwheel makes a good point. If possible, try to keep all your funds subject to RMD at the same place. Simplifies matters. The calculations shouldn’t be hard. There’s a multitude of free websites you can pull up that will factor in birth date, etc. and provide the minimum RMD for a given year.
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    Today is the day for T+1!
    Stock trading in 1920s was T+1. Then, the volume rose and it was too much to handle manually. So, it became T+5. But with computers around for 60 years, it became T+3, then T+2, and now, finally, T+1 again.
    When will be T+0?
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wall-street-returns-to-t-1-stock-trading-after-a-century-1.2077882
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-returns-t-1-000000851.html
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    From Barron's May 6, 2024,
    Frequent changes in the RMD rules are confusing. For tax-deferred accounts (T-IRA, 401k, 403b), the RMD age is 73 now (was 72 in 2023, 70.5 in 2020) and it will remain so until 2033. The RMD amount depends on the yearend balances, age-related IRS factor, and other factors such as marital status, very young spouse, beneficiaries. The 1st RMD can be delayed to April 1 of the following year but beware of the tax impact of double RMDs then. The RMD can be postponed if working. (There is a special 55.0-59.5 rule that avoids 10% penalty for premature withdrawals from a current 401k/403b; not so for old 401k/403b or T-IRA). The RMDs from T-IRAs can be aggregated and taken from any one T-IRA, and it’s similar for 403b, but not for 401k. There are different rules for inherited accounts for spouses, nonspouses, trusts, and whether the deceased had started taking the RMDs. The QCDs are allowed from T-IRAs. The Roth IRAs no longer require RMDs. (R-IRA rules are simple in retirement if 5 years beyond Roth Conversions, but nightmarish otherwise.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven, I do not recall seeing new issue non-callable Agencies in the past two years. I suspect, if they exist, the spreads over comparable Treasuries would be miniscule (10-20 bps) and may not be worth chasing such Agencies, especially because of their lower liquidity and transaction cost to sell - not to mention the potential to get caught in the DC political football.
    So, what I am doing is banking on the callable Agencies offering higher yield at least through the first call date and any extension is gravy but with the risk that rates might go up and at some point I might end up owning an agency that yields less than a comparable Treasury. I am assuming the probability of that risk is low relative to the extra yield I am picking up.
    Thanks for the auction schedule. I do not see an auction for 1 yr or later Treasuries until June 10.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    @shipwreckedandalone, the article had several good points.
    Quote: "By highlighting the “full market cycle” as the right period for judgment, they’re reminding investors that over shorter spans within the cycle they’ll look,"
    FD: is now the start of the market cycle? Is it a good choice to start in the middle?
    Full market cycle also means you must stay in the fund for many years to get the benefit of this fund....and now we get to the second problem
    Quote: "Since most investors have limited patience, most absolute value investors have limited careers."
    FD: can you stay long term in this fund? probably not, Cinnamond never managed the same fund for 15-20 years. His record shows 5 and 6 years, he is already in his fifth year at PVCMX. Since the fund has so much cash, it's obvious Cinnamond can't find valuable stocks, he may quit soon. In 2016 he said "Mr. Cinnamond recommended return of capital to his investors, noting that the market was fundamentally hostile to his investment style and that he was unwilling to charge investors “equity fund prices” while sitting at 90% cash."
    ==========
    Do I think this fund can serve a goal?
    Absolutely, if you are a retiree who has enough and just needs 6-7% with lower SD, go for it. This is where I am, but I use bond funds for that and do my own timing going to cash. On the other hand, a fund like RSIIX may generate 6-7% with lower SD but you can own it for years. MM have been paying over 5% for months now.
    How strong are you going to be in years when the fund is lagging badly...2021 PVCMX made 3.2% per M* same category made over 31%.
    Another idea...use it instead of VWIAX. The problem again is the fact I can own VWIAX for the next 30 years.
    Another idea...it can be a good choice for someone EXPLORE portion.
    Trade it? not a bad idea, but if you are a good trader you can do better or you know when to use it.
    Lastly, another problem is when many investors like to mention funds that have done well in the last several years and start using them when markets start to take off or avoid stocks for years.
  • Vanguard's new CEO
    @bee, I don’t think a new outside CEO will ‘right’ the ship at this point. @msf summarizes the message appropriately and Vanguard wants to exit many of the less profitable business. Ironically, Vanguard was our initial 401(k) administrator and they were very good. Web support has always been barebones and clunky but we managed.
    Having to upgrade their human customer services take lots of $ that Vanguard don’t want to do. We learn to use this web service well even though we have been Flagship clients for many years. Right now, we have moved all retirement accounts out from them. Next is our joint account.