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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* Interview w/ Dennis Lynch & Bill Nygren: Tesla, Bitcoin, Zoom, Cathie Woods
    Interesting interview from Nov. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1063412/these-renowned-stock-pickers-are-taking-change-in-stride
    One gets a clear sense of the differences between these two fund managers but some similarities too… and even with dare I say Cathie Wood?
    Favorite quotes:
    TESLA
    “Lynch: I think it’s a tough business. Selling cars that are expensive for the average customer, that require financing, is a little different than selling Internet ads. We did own Tesla for about three years. It was a small, more of a speculative-size position back when the first consumer reports came out around the product, and the company was starting to have a real revenue stream in front of it. But the constant need for capital from the capital markets does put you in a position, potentially, during times of uncertainty of relying on the kindness of strangers to continue the business model. Cathie Wood would say it’s not just about selling cars. There might be more to it than that—energy storage, energy services, and things of that nature. Still, ultimately, it’s a car company, and there are a lot of other big car companies that scale. They do a lot of things differently that are interesting, but ultimately the capital intensity and the constant need for external financing for us became problematic.”
    ZOOM
    “ Nygren: When we weren’t able to be in the office, we were using Zoom as much as anybody else was, and as a consumer, I loved the product. The concern that we had was that Zoom was being priced as if it were going to be the dominant market leader for a long time. But one conference call would be on Zoom, and then the next one on Google Meet, and then Microsoft (MSFT) Teams and BlueJeans, and they all look just about alike as a user.” <— He’s absolutely right on this point.
    BUBBLE? Stocks vs Bonds
    Nygren: “ I’m not going to sit here and argue that it’s a generational opportunity to buy equities or anything like that. But given where interest rates are, owning an equity like the S&P that pays almost a 2% dividend yield and has earnings that are growing at 6% or 7% a year, compared to a long-term bond, is an easy choice to make.
    Lynch: “ But all things equal, I would rather own smaller companies with smaller market caps that we think could be much bigger over time than some of the larger companies that exist today.”
    BITCOIN
    Lynch: “ We talked about persistence earlier. Bitcoin’s kind of like Kenny from South Park. It dies every episode, and then it’s back again. As for adoption, it’s almost like bitcoin’s a virus and we’re all a little bit infected. Some people fully have gone there, and some people haven’t, but we all know about it. That’s interesting to me from a viral mechanism.”
    BANKING
    “Reichart: Bill, you own a lot of financials. How worried are you about disruption in the financial sector?
    Nygren: Most of the financial names we own are selling relatively close to stated book value. In a world where they get disrupted and their business goes down every year, they could liquidate for relatively close to the current stock. Brian Moynihan [CEO of Bank of America BAC ] said that the pandemic has pulled forward mobile banking by a decade. If you go into a bank to a teller, it costs them $4 to process your check. If you do it at an ATM, it’s 40 cents. And if you do it on your phone, it’s 4 cents. The big banks are a disruptor there because they are so far ahead in mobilization for their clients. I don’t see a big downside for most of the companies that we own.”
  • It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future
    I agree that many in the financial industry "talk their book."
    Early in his career, Jack Bogle was told everything you need to know if you're going into the investment business. The advice was short and sweet: Nobody knows nothing.
  • Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time?
    M* makes it easy to look up recent performance of the top 25 holdings. Or in the case of LLPFX, all 17 equity holdings. One can go to the M* legacy holdings page for a fund, get links for each of the top 25 holdings, click on those links and from thence the link for each security's immediately trailing returns.
    Legacy M* holdings page for LLPFX
    Figuring on around a half minute per holding, that's around a quarter hour. Still tedious, but manageable. Of course one would have to do this immediately following the period of interest since the easily available data are immediately trailing one week (and one month, etc.) returns.
    FWIW, looking at LLPFX, after August (i.e. recently) I don't see an 8% jump in a week. In a month, perhaps.
    The fund declined for most of Sept, hitting its nadir on Sept 21, then climbing 3% and giving most of it back by Sept 30th. From that point, the fund generally ascended, reaching an 8% increase on Nov 4th and topping out with a 10% gain in Nov 5th. From there the fund gave everything plus a little more back by Dec 1.
    From this new low point, the fund never climbed 8%. It did rise 7% by Dec 27th, where it effectively plateaued. So I took a quick look for holdings that climbed sharply over the month of December.
    MGM up 13%, H (Hyatt) up 22%, FFH (Fairfax Financial) up 10%, CNHI (CNH Industrial) up 19%, FDX (FedEx) up 13%.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    ...ya...so in the past couple weeks I rec'd back about a 1/4 of my investment in IQDAX, Infinity Q fund...hopefully within the next 2 years after the lawyers and their firms get paid I get another 1/4 back...if I do, I'll consider myself lucky.
    Done learnt an expensive financial investing lesson as my hard lesson was monitized. Alledged fraud by the fund mgr who was "adjusting" the NAVs as he felt was appropriate. Alledgedly.
    I still think at the end of two years our, I will have taken less of a hair cut that this dumpster fire of a fund, ARKK etc. Someone commented several months ago, ya, at least Wood isn't a crook and if you lose money with her you lose it legit. True that but net, net, fraud, inexperience, marketing charlatan...your checking acccount and spending power doesn't know.
    If rates do go up, and personally I think Powell might try and then all kinds of volatility will happen, her funds will really get smacked...who sung the song..."you, ain't seen nothing yet"....BTO? Bachman Turner Overdrive...baby. baby....ya ain't seen nothin'yet....
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • First Eagle Fund of America share class conversion
    Of the 9 First Eagle mutual funds, only the Fund of America FEFAX is affected by this (as is noted by name in the release without any tickers). None of the other 8 First Eagle mutual funds have Y classes.
    https://www.firsteagle.com/our-financial-products
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    I think it’s worthwhile to keep this thread alive at least until the end of the year. The markets are somewhat schizophrenic today with the NAS down .5% and the Dow ahead by .25%. S&P flat (as of 1:00 PM.). I think a lot of us are anticipating a change in sentiment some time during the new year.
    While The Nikkei 225 fell around .25% in Monday’s session, it more than made up for that with a +1.37% jump overnight. FLJP which I’ve owned a few weeks is up a bit today. Hard to beat the .09% ER if you’re looking to diversify away from the U.S. / Europe.
    Not mentioned perhaps is that markets are presently trading on very thin volume due to many traders being off. Some days now only a fraction of the shares normally traded change hands. Likely, this impacts / exaggerates movements in both directions so that they may not represent the valuation as determined by the broader investment community. That was the subtle message in my reference to “slow” markets and the lack of really good coverage by some financial media outlets this week - as their staffs are curtailed due to the holidays.
    Thanks @Derf for this thread,
  • How Did Moderate-Allocation 60-40 Do?
    Giroux (46) has been with PRWCX since mid-2006 (he was only 31 then). So, he has been through the Great Financial Crisis (2007-09), the Covid selloff (2020) and other minor selloffs in between. He may have 2-3 decades ahead of him unless he gets bored. But his new roles at Price should keep things interesting for him. PRWCX is closed to new investors, but those who hold it don't have to worry about manager change any time soon.
  • Barry Ritholtz’s 12 Investing Tips
    Probably linked before. Worth a look as the year winds down.
    LINK to Full Article
    Summary -
    1. Hold onto your winners and cut your losses short.
    2. Avoid making predictions and forecasts.
    3. Study crowd behavior.
    4. Think like a contrarian.
    5. Asset allocation is critical.
    6. Indexing is a better bet..
    7. Avoid cognitive and psychological errors.
    8. Admit your mistakes.
    9. Understand financial cycles.
    10. Don’t settle in a comfort zone.
    11. Reduce investing friction.
    12. Remember that there is no free lunch.
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    For the love of Pete...I hope there are NOT any blog entries by any "FIRE" proponents who burnt out from the corporate world, stated they retired early, got a van to escape reality but in reality are still working writing a blog which contains "financial investment porn", securing eyeballs so they can post and monetize digital ads.
    Just like Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Bernie Sanders...just go away. Everyone is tired of your nonsense and general kookiness.
    It's kind of like when you put on a suit and tie and are a white dude...no one questions you or looks at you funny when you walk into a store....you write an investment porn blog and just because you get a following that makes you an expert? Never take investment advice from anyone who doesn't have over $10MM. As Josh Brown refers to in is book, "How do you invest, show me your portfolio". Sheet.
    Apologies for the snark. Sincerely DO appreciate the post.
    In reality, all snark aside, I do truly believe the only safe retirement plans are for those who have a gov't pension and live in a "blue" state and will suckle off the teets of their fellow tax payers, come what may. The rest of us are all somewhat gambling in the casino and left to the whims of government monetary and fiscal policy.
    Maybe, just maybe, keep it simple, control your spending, stay healthy as much as possible, don't take on too much risk (meaning either too aggressive investments or too conservate (guilty as charged))
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    Additional links can be found in the link I included below:
    “The Chain”
    As you’ll see in the P.S., we’re trying something new in the blogosphere. We’re “Building A Chain” of blog articles, where different bloggers are sharing their detailed Drawdown Strategy. To help keep track, I’ll edit this post as new “links” are added in the chain. Eventually, we’re planning on compiling these into an e-book, and donating all proceeds to charity. Thanks to the following bloggers who have joined “The Chain Gang”!!
    Anchor: Physician On Fire: Our Drawdown Plan in Early Retirement
    Link 1: The Retirement Manifesto: Our Retirement Investment Drawdown Strategy
    Link 2: OthalaFehu: Retirement Master Plan
    Link 3: Freedom Is Groovy: The Groovy Drawdown Strategy
    Link 4: The Green Swan: The Nastiest, Hardest Problem In Finance: Decumulation
    Link 5: My Curiosity Lab: Show Me The Money: My Retirement Drawdown Plan
    Link 6: Cracking Retirement: Our Drawdown Strategy
    Link 7: The Financial Journeyman: Early Retirement Portfolio & Plan
    Link 8: Retire By 40: Our Unusual Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategy
    Link 10: Early Retirement Now: The ERN Family Early Retirement Captial Preservation Plan
    Link 11: 39 Months: Mr. 39 Months Drawdown Plan
    Link 12: 7 Circles: Drawdown Strategy – Joining The Chain Gang
    Link 13: Retirement Starts Today: What’s Your Retirement Withdrawal Strategy?
    Link 14: Ms. Liz Money Matters: How I’ll Fund My Retirement
    Link 15a: Dads Dollars Debts: DDD Drawdown Part 1: Living With A Pension
    Link 15b: Dads Dollars Debts: DDD Drawdown Plan Part 2: Retire at 48?
    Link 16: Penny & Rich: Rich’s Retirement Plan
    Link 17: Atypical Life: Our Retirement Drawdown Strategy
    Link 18: New Retirement: 5 Steps For Defining Your Retirement Drawdown Strategy
    Link 19: Maximize Your Money: Practical Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Are Important
    Link 20: ChooseFI: The Retirement Manifesto – Drawdown Strategy Podcast
    Link 21: CoachCarson: My Rental Retirement Strategy
    Link 22: Accidently Retired: How I Planned my Early Withdrawal Strategy
    Link 23: Playtirement: Playtirement Preservation Stage
    Find the above links within this link (found at the end of article):
    our-retirement-investment-drawdown-strategy
  • Inflation
    “So quit worrying so much about that unlikely event ( really old and broke)”
    Suppose we’ll get blasted for straying OT. Appreciate the takes of everyone. @Junkster doesn’t comment often enough. As he has mentioned before, the longer we’re invested the faster the stash appreciates in nominal terms owing to compounding. . And, considering one’s ever increasing financial knowledge and skill-set, that $$ should appreciate even faster than it did in earlier years (at least on a risk-adjusted basis).
    Now the other side. I was terrible managing money up until near age 50. A good job kept me afloat. (and a bad marriage nearly done me in). The “catch-up” provisions in our workplace tax-deferred plan saved my a** in hind-sight. But I will say, having at least glimpsed both conditions, it’s a thin line between “rags” and “riches”. Die rich? Die broke? They’re not really comparable - the former being much more endurable ISTM.
    I’ve no answer to the dilemma. You could annuitize everything and really splurge in those luxurious later years. Just be sure that annuity has a generous inflation rider - because inflation is the big unknown - and probably the reason we over-save.
  • Variant Alternative Income - NICHX
    @LewisBraham - the OP stated earlier that they were placed in the fund through a financial advisor. That seems to be the link if one doesn't have a million to play with.
  • Variant Alternative Income - NICHX
    I do not have any business relationship with this fund or any other fund. I'm invested in this via Schwab at a significantly lower amount through a financial advisor. I don't have $1M to invest into a single fund.
    No proof of accreditation was sought by Schwab at purchase. I was able to buy just like any other mutual fund.
  • Variant Alternative Income - NICHX
    This fund has a $1 million minimum investment and is an interval fund that only allows quarterly redemptions. Do you have any business or financial relationship with this fund?
    https://funds.variantinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/12/Variant-Alternative-Income-Fund-NICHX-Factsheet-2021-11.pdf
  • George F. Shipp of Sterling Capital to retire in 2022
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889284/000139834421024111/fp0071142_497.htm
    497 1 fp0071142_497.htm
    STERLING CAPITAL FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 20, 2021
    TO THE
    CLASS A AND CLASS C SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE
    INSTITUTIONAL AND CLASS R6 SHARES PROSPECTUS,
    EACH DATED FEBRUARY 1, 2021, AS SUPPLEMENTED
    This Supplement provides the following amended and supplemental information and supersedes any information to the contrary in the Class A and Class C Shares Prospectus and the Institutional, Class R6 Shares Prospectus, each dated February 1, 2021 (collectively, the “Prospectuses”), with respect to Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund and Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund:
    Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund
    Effective immediately, George Shipp will cease to serve as co-portfolio manager of the Fund, due to his upcoming retirement from the Adviser as disclosed July 12, 2021. Accordingly, the “Management—Portfolio Managers” section in the Prospectuses with respect to Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund is hereby deleted and replaced with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    Joshua L. Haggerty, CFA
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since July 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from February 2016 – July 2021)
    Daniel A. Morrall
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since December 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from July 2021 – December 2021)
    Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund
    Effective immediately, George Shipp will cease to serve as co-portfolio manager of the Fund, due to his upcoming retirement from the Adviser as disclosed July 12, 2021. Accordingly, the “Management—Portfolio Managers” section in the Prospectuses with respect to Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund is hereby deleted and replaced with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    Adam B. Bergman, CFA
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since July 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from February 2016 – July 2021)
    Charles J. Wittmann
    Executive Director of Sterling Capital and Co-Portfolio Manager
    Since December 2021
    (formerly, Associate Portfolio Manager from July 2021 – December 2021)
    The following replaces the description of the Portfolio Managers set forth under “Fund Management—Portfolio Managers” in the Prospectuses with respect to the Sterling Capital Special Opportunities Fund and Sterling Capital Equity Income Fund:
    Special Opportunities Fund and Equity Income Fund. Joshua L. Haggerty, CFA, Executive Director, joined the CHOICE Asset Management team of BB&T Scott & Stringfellow in 2005, which integrated with Sterling Capital in January 2013. He has investment experience since 1998. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund since July 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund from February 2016 to July 2021. Josh is a graduate of James Madison University where he received his BBA in Finance. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Adam B. Bergman, CFA, Executive Director, joined the CHOICE Asset Management team of Scott & Stringfellow in 2007, which integrated with Sterling Capital Management in January 2013. He has investment experience since 1996. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund since July 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund from February 2016 to July 2021. Adam is a graduate of the University of Virginia’s McIntire School of Commerce where he received his BS in Commerce. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Charles J. Wittmann, CFA, Executive Director, joined Sterling Capital Management in 2014 and has investment experience since 1995. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund since December 2021 and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Equity Income Fund from July 2021 to December 2021. Prior to joining Sterling Capital, he worked for Thompson Siegel & Walmsley as a portfolio manager and (generalist) analyst. Prior to TS&W, he was a founding portfolio manager and analyst with Shockoe Capital, an equity long/short hedge fund. Charles received his B.A. in Economics from Davidson College and his M.B.A. from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
    Daniel A. Morrall, Executive Director, joined Sterling Capital Management in 2014 and has investment experience since 2001. He has been Co-Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund since December 2021and was Associate Portfolio Manager of the Special Opportunities Fund from July 2021 to December 2021. Prior to joining Sterling Capital, he worked as an equity analyst for Harber Asset Management and S Squared Technology LLC, technology-biased long/short funds. Dan received his B.S. in Business and Economics from Washington and Lee University, his M.B.A. from Columbia Business School, and his M.S.I.T. from Capella University.
    SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    SUPP-1221
    -2-
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Thanks @bee. I was more concerned about you. I did watch it but always nice to have MFO be the one stop shop for my financial literacy.
  • The Age of Financial Misinformation
    By Nick Maggiulli writing in Of Dollars and Data. (Of Dollars And Data focuses on personal finance using data analysis. Nick Maggiulli is the Chief Operating Officer for Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC.)
    ARTICLE
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    My wife and I did decide to move our accounts back to TRP from Schwab to take advantage of the new Summit Program, primarily to access TRP institutional share classes at greatly reduced minimums and access to closed TRP funds. With us holding around 80% of our investments in TRP funds, primarily PRWCX, it just made financial sense to make the move. Their brokerage arm is able to hold our non-TRP funds.
    6 accounts were moved. The process began on November 17 and was completed today, December 14. Took a little longer than I thought it might as there were a couple hiccups, for a bit they were having difficulty moving the non-brokerage part of my wife's Roth IRA and we were not able to connect our bank account to our new TRP accounts from the TRP website and needed to mail in the forms. A little patience and all is fine. Next step is to transfer into the institutional share class of PRWCX.
    We were assigned a Senior Financial Consultant from TRP to assist in the transfer of our accounts. He communicated via phone and email, and when necessary did the leg-work to provide answers to questions we had instead of us having to deal with customer service via phone.
    Now, I just need to get reacquainted with navigating the TRP website again.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity -JHQDX (JHQAX)
    JHQAX (reviewed series) annual distributions have been about 1% (though M* shows the fund has about 40% annual turnover). My thought was to put it in a taxable account. The inevitable question is, how tax risky is it to put it in a taxable account? It seems this fund provides a 15% downside protection, if S&P 500 falls 20% or more (no protection for first 5% loss). In a choppy, sideways market, it could lose more than the SPY because of the cost of its option outlays and the Calls written may not fetch as much premium as they have in the past. It would be a tragedy if the fund ends up distributing a lot of cap gains in a year when it is not performing well, which is probably the scenario when it would trigger cap gains because of AUM outflows. Prior to November 2021, the only month of net outflows was March 2020. The other month of net outflows was November 2021, which was a surprise to me. What do its shareholders expect from it? What would constitute "not performing well" for this fund? I do not know the psychological make up of a typical investor in this fund as it is not a mainstream strategy. (May be I should head over to the Bogleheads forum and see if there is an interest there for this strategy - I am told those guys tend to be buy and holders!)
    As an aside, its performance from inception (2014) until the beginning of Covid is about the same (more or less) as a good high yield fund but bond funds had falling rates as a tail wind - may be not a fair comparison.
    Please share your reasonable comments / thoughts.
    With due respect, I do not find your analysis of the inner workings or risk mitigation features of this fund far superior to mine. I trust Lipper, The Financial Times and other sources referenced to be fact based. It’s not about speaking with God or not. It’s about delving into the workings of a fund that promotes itself as a safer alternative to many competitive investments. It may well be that. What’s wrong with poking and prodding a bit before sending your hard earned money?
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    If people are interested I seem to have fixed the Quicken issue using @gsundel suggestions on the Quicken Community board.
    IT is lengthy but in sum
    deactivate all your Schwab accounts, especially hidden ones. Then Erase the account numbers and financial institution name
    On SChwab.com, go to "Services" then "security center" and allow Quicken access to all of the accounts you want to link
    @gsundel suggests you log out of quicken and log back in
    In Quicken "Add account" Use "Schwab& co" log in
    A list of all your accounts should pop up allowing you to link to existing accounts
    IF anyone has a recommendation for another portfolio management program I am all ears