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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • DoubleLine launched two new ETFs

    DoubleLine Shiller CAPE® U.S. Equities ETF (DCPE)
    DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF (DBND)
    https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/doubleline-launches-its-own-etfs?nopaging=1
    Doubleline Funds website is not yet updated to list any ETFs
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Did I happen to mention that I bought PRISX TRP Financial Srvs. at just the right time, on St. Patrick's Day? Kiss of death. I'm down with it by -2.15% already. ;)
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    @catch.
    Most bond funds hover around $10.00, launch price.
    So, 10 cents typically close to 1%. That's a big move.
    "UP1CENT" is usually a happy day for bond fund owners.
    On a $100K investment, means up $100.
    Up 10 cents is huge ... $1K!
    On other hand, I know some very conservative investors that "down 10 cents" is crushingly painful!
    c
    PS. If I could buy the perfect gift for Junkster, it would be a personalized license plate: UP1CENT.
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    Bond market got spook by hawkish Fed statement.
    https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202204051009RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KCN2LX1BZ-OUSBS_1
    VG total bond index, VBTLX, -0.09, -0.86%
    VG total international bond index, VTABX, -0.12%, -0.57%
    Pimco Income, PIMIX, -0.08, -0.71%
    D&C income, DODIX, -0.09, -0.68%
    VG emerging market government bond, VWOB, -1.07, -1.53%
    Few bonds survived,
    Osterweis Strategic income, OSTIX, 0.0, 0,0%
    TRP floating rate bond, PRFRX, +0.01, +0.11%
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    @ken. +1
    To my point regarding what the public thinks. Govt can spin it, sound bite it, fog, deflect blame,try to BS it, etc...but you cannot BS reality
    Especially when you grocery shop once a week, buy gas once a week, pay utilities monthly
    Inflation really could be well into double digits
    Don't worry...I'll stay away from political commentary
    Invest wisely and appropriately
    Baseball Fan
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    PRFRX. +.01 penny. Otherwise, a very smelly day.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    I have been a food buyer in the grocery business for forty years. Currently our average case cost is up 13.9% year over year with more price increases coming everyday. If the current tend continues look for a 20% or more food inflation this year.
  • The Top-Performing Stock-Fund Managers Over a Turbulent Year
    @Mark: thanks for posting this. I took a quick look at AVALX, a supposedly SCV US fund. It’s 87% non-US and is highly concentrated in basic materials (71%) and energy (23%). Thassa some spicy meatball! Don’t know the fund, so I have no idea what stocks it has held in the past.
  • Barrons question
    @shipwreckedandalone, in its Market Laboratory data tables, Barron's publishes TRAILING P/Es for indexes and the current edition has for SP500 as 25.02. I don't think Barron's presented fwd P/E for major indexes in these data tables. It does have fwd P/E for Barron's 50 weekly and that is 21.20.
    But fwd P/E for SP500 is often mentioned within Barron's articles that in the current edition is 19.6 (Trader column).
    M* has fwd P/E for SPY as 20.1, for VOO 19.7 (the difference not accounted by their ER difference).
    Yardeni has fwd P/E for SP500 as 19.7 and also has a chart for P/E. Analysts may differ on this based on their outlook. Notably, Yardeni develops his own estimates. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf
  • Barrons question
    This was published in Barron's on 11/24/2021:
    "Jefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220. "
  • Barrons question
    Does Barron's have the S&P 500 1 year forward earnings estimate projections (52 week)?
    $48 online cost.
    If yes, what is that number? Or the estimates for 2023?
  • Top Actively Managed Mutual Funds by AUM
    An informative compilation, though one might organize it differently.
    The list has multiple share classes for funds (e.g. CWMAX, CWMCX, CWMEX, CWMFX, AWSHX) for (American) Washington Mutual Investors Fund. What, no WSHFX? :-)
    On the one hand, it is true that each share class has somewhat different returns due to different expense and sales structures. On the other hand, it may be more helpful to order largest funds by the size of their portfolios rather than the size of each share class. A representative share class' return should be adequate to give a general sense of performance.
    M*'s fund screener shows 13 non-index funds with over $100B in AUM. Here are the top 10 funds (ranked by total fund assets), along with quarterly returns, their M* percentile rankings, M* selected index returns, and category returns:
    Fund	Return	Pctile	Index	Category
    GFAFX -10.72% 55 -9.47% -10.76%
    BALFX -4.04% 28 -5.17% -4.63%
    AEGFX -12.33% 41 -5.38% -13.43%
    WSHFX -1.97% 8 -5.27% -5.23%
    PIMIX -4.20% 42 -6.00% -4.29%
    NPFFX -10.04% 37 -5.35% -12.27%
    IFAFX -1.33% 7 -5.18% -5.15%
    AFIFX -5.80% 65 -5.27% -5.23%
    GFAFX -9.84% 45 -9.47% -10.76%
    AICFX -4.70% 40 -5.27% -5.23% ($121B AUM)
    Overall, not a bad showing relative to the indexes. But this is for just one quarter. And if funds don't excel in down markets (between cash drag and the ability to react to market conditions), how well do they perform over whole cycles?
    At least these jumbo funds are somewhat outperforming their peers.
    Side note (techical) - AFIFX mouse-over is showing class F01. It should be F-1. Could be a data feed error.
  • FTC Sues TurboTax Owner Intuit Over False Advertising
    If something is truly free, there may be no commercial reason to promote it. And if it isn't really free, there's every reason (aside from a small matter of possible fraud) to promote it as such. Worth keeping in mind when investing in NTF funds.
    As to truly free programs:
    The I.R.S. Free File program offers no-cost online tax programs to people who earn $73,000 or less. The program began in 2003 as a way to offer do-it-yourself tax software to the public, through a pact between the I.R.S. and the Free File Alliance, a collection of commercial vendors.
    But the program was not widely used, in part because the I.R.S. lacked money to promote it. While 70 percent of filers were eligible to use it, just 2.4 percent did, according to a federal review. H&R Block dropped out of the federal program in 2020, and last year Intuit, which makes the popular TurboTax program, said it was leaving as well. In its regulatory filings, Intuit said it had left because the Free File agreement was changed in 2019 to “eliminate the pledge by the I.R.S.” that the agency wouldn’t offer a competing service.
    Still, eight software providers are participating this year, including TaxAct and TaxSlayer.
    NYTimes, Free Options for Filing Your Taxes, February 25, 2022
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/your-money/taxes/filing-taxes-online-free.html
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    This does not bother me at all in terms of whether the guy is a competent and professional investment manager. One bad event in 1997? You're making many assumptions to say he "lied about it" over 20 years later. The charge was downgraded to a non-felony. The application in question asked for whether he was "charged" with a felony and he should have checked yes. I have a buddy (lawyer) who made the exact same mistake on his Fla. bar application. In his mind over 2 decades later he remembered the event and what the final result was, not the initial charge. The Fla bar tortured this guy mercilessly even though he was a practicing lawyer for years elsewhere with no issues.
  • Top Actively Managed Mutual Funds by AUM
    I wondered how the largest actively managed mutual funds had performed during the first quarter.
    The listed numbers represent what I pulled up on Lipper. They are as of Friday’s close. No doubt, I screwed up a few. But most I think are pretty accurate. The linked chart lists the 100 largest actively managed funds by AUM in 2021.* I only had time to pull up the return of about the first 25. But from the looks, most were negative and none rose to the 1% positive level. One wonders if perhaps further down the list the results were any better …
    *I’m aware the linked list may be incomplete. Hopefully it serves as a representative sampling of the largest funds. I’ve noticed that when you click on one below the YTD return changes. That is for the most part, I think, because those numbers include Monday’s result. However, rather than relying on what I dug up, I suggest you click on the link for whatever fund you want to check. Data is more recent and probably a bit more accurate.
    First Quarter 2022 Performance (Numbers drawn from Lipper)
    AGTHX -10%
    CWMAX -1.64%
    CWMCX -1.83%
    CWMEX -1.70%
    CWMFX -1.61%
    FCNTX -9.57%
    AWSHX -1.67%
    AIVSX -4.15%
    ANCFX -5.23%
    AMCFX -12.0%
    CAFAX -12.0%
    CAFCX -12.23%
    FMACX -11.96%
    AFMFX +0.51%
    AMRFX +0.49%
    CMLAX +0.43%
    CMLCX + 0.24%
    CMLEX +0.37%
    CMLFX +0.47%
    TRBCX -12.03%
    FBGRX -12.5%
    FDGRX -12.56%
    EAGRX +0.74%
    AMCPX -12.03%
    AMRMX +0.43%
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    The Balance page says that the 1952 inflation was 0.8% (not 8%). That was the Y/Y rate for December 1952 as I noted above. In all other months of 1952, e.g. Nov 1951 - Nov 1952, the Y/Y inflation rate was higher. But always 4.3% or less for the months in 1952.
    Balance says that the 1980 inflation was 12.5%. The 18% figure that you're quoting is the Fed Funds rate. If you mouse over "footnote" 5 (Inflation YOY), you'll see it describes the same source and procedure for finding inflation that I described above.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    Hearing March inflation numbers will be at 70 year high.... April inflation numbers likely over 10%
    Seems unreal to even type that... what will the general public think about that...
    Best
    Baseball Fan
    That doesn't seem right. The inflation rate in 1952 was .8%. The highest inflation rate since then was 18% in 1980.
    https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093
  • Danielle Park interview 45 minutes. (21 July, 2021)
    Canadian. Toronto. I discovered her in the early 2000s. Just re-discovered her. The headline connected to this youtube video is silly, like a come-on. But Park is the serious dope. Well worth paying attention to. Enjoy.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    You heard wrong. Y/Y inflation for 1952 (70 years ago) ranged from a high of 4.3% (Jan) to a low of 0.8% (Dec). Not a year of high inflation.
    Y/Y inflation remained below 5% until the spring of 1969. The only double digit Y/Y figures come from 1974-1975 and 1979-1981, peaking at 14.8% in March 1980. I'm sure those periods ring economic bells for some people.
    My data source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
    (Select "More Formatting Options", and then select the checkbox "12 month percent change")
    What is your source?