Hi @expatsp
Yes, supply chain remains a very valid circumstance. One item next (1) is more timely and critical for what has already started in U.S.; and the other (2) not so much, but provides a prospective, too.
1. I don't recall exactly, but a U.S. manufacturer; reported that their (electronic product) production is okay; except for final assembly and out the door to their customers..........well, because the needed final assembled power cord is from China, they are out of this item and apparently don't have a back up supplier.
2. The NHL players, and likely semi-pro and some college level are managing the use of their hockey sticks; as the PRO/individual/custom level sticks are 75% built in China. No inbound, replacement sticks.
@rforno noted previous about reaction to the POTUS news conference.
Lastly, and related to COVID and the president's news conference Wednesday evening regarding same. By chance, I was working in a separate room and had Bloomberg tv dialed up. I decided to watch. Pretty sad. A tiny overview from the press corp questions and what is the normal wandering around a subject to distract and deflect. Blamed so-called concern with the virus towards CNN, MSNBC and Dems. and fake news. Pelosi is incompetent, etc. The link below is a short read.
A few of the words from the conference.
Take care,
Catch

Most recent JAMA article 20% Chinese cases severe or critical
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
"During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27 years (range,<1-92 years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.

SPX is well on its way to hit price levels from July 2019.
1.3M SPX eminis moved already by 945 this morning. To me that suggests right now is more panic than rational hedging. But that's just one opinion.
Urge to start nibbling rising.

Howdy folks,
Nothing like a good pandemic to bring out the lurkers, huh? ;-)
I think Mark was spot on and most of everyone is keeping their powder dry.
The market was a ripe for a black swan type event. What, the longest bull run of how long? Mostly kept afloat by massive gov't dollar injections and the lack of anywhere else to go due to zero interest rates. Oh, and we've still got a few lively months ahead of us on the politikal scene. Enough said.
I'm not looking at making any moves right now in a serious way but geez, people, I went to the bloody mattresses after the Ides of November and have been continuing to further hunker down as time has gone by. Sure, I've got equities and equity funds but other than something that gives me a dividend, my allocations are greatly reduced. Please note that this is core portfolio and not casino money.
Where I've focused my equities is normally dividend plays that I deal with commercially (e.g. T, CMS, VZ). My long time favorite for just insane dividends is NCV. I also moved a couple of units into overseas bonds with PRMEX, PRSNX. Bought some PRLAX a while back and still have some Matthews plays with MAFTX and MCHFX (yeah, I can be crazier than many).
All y'all best be watching the metals. On the larger side, our larger long time PM fund has been SGDLX (used to be Tocqueville). This is in addition to PRPFX. I own some CEF for gold and silver exposure along with SILJ and several junior silver miners. This is where I see the serious action as the leverage with silver is much greater than with gold and they most often travel together. Also, note that right now the POG and POS are being obscured by the strength of the dollar. Gold is at an all time high in every other currency. Today Platinum hit an all time high here. If you want to play check the kitco websites for either gold or silver.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Keep your flak jackets close and your N95s closer.

PIMIX is invested at over 75% in securitized. A good replacement fund is VCFAX with about 90% in securitized. JMUTX+PUCZX are more diversified.
So, I would rate these 4 funds as follow. If you want lower SD then go with VCFAX, if you want better performance then go with PUCZX (its higher SD is still relatively OK)
Look at PV(link)

8:25 A.M.
--- Looked at markets last night before pillow time, and equity still looked shaky globally.
I was surprised with market closes on Feb. 26, Wednesday; with the very flat and poor price performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S. gov't. area. I won't be surprised with what may be a problem with price performance in the corp. investment grade bond area, as corporations may be stressed for performance numbers at this point.....earnings dinged.
Not that I.G. bonds are not offering downward protection against the uncertain equity markets; I merely expected more positive performance.
Will be watching today (Fed. 27). as the pre-market yield numbers for the 30 year UST is 1.76% and the 10 year UST is 1.27%.

Two popular funds with supposed muted volatility, YAFFX and FAMEX, have been relatively disappointing, dropping 5.47% and 6.53% respectively. (The S&P500 has fallen 6.63% in 3 days by comparison.) Both charge exorbitant fees and YAFFX holds 25% cash which you think would have provided a more secure buffer. Not surprisingly, allocation funds have performed relatively well, the superb VWINX falling only 2.03%.

If the reason why you are considering leaving PIMIX is an increase in its reported ER (0.74% in the 2018 summary prospectus, 1.05% in the 2019 summary prospectus), I respectfully suggest that you take a closer look.
The true operating costs of funds vary from year to year based on how they execute their strategies. If a fund decides to trade more frequently, its costs (due to commissions, spreads, etc.) rise. This rise isn't reflected in its ER because trading costs aren't included in the ER, but it's an increase just the same. Now if you like the idea of the fund trading more frequently, then you accept the higher expense as a cost of doing business.
Similarly, if a fund decides to use more leverage by, e.g. borrowing short and lending long, its interest costs go up (to borrow short term money). If you like that strategy, you accept the interest charges as a cost of leveraging. Unlike trading costs that are hidden out of sight, interest expenses are hidden in plain view, buried in the ER.
This is why PIMCO footnotes the ERs in its prospectuses.

To the extent a Fund enters into certain investments, such as reverse repurchase agreements, or enters into certain borrowings, such as a line of credit, the Fund incurs interest expense. Interest expense is required to be treated as an expense of the Fund for accounting purposes, but the amount of interest expense, if any, will vary from year to year with the Fund’s use of such investments or borrowings as an investment strategy.

From a 2011 SEC filing in response to SEC comments on what PIMCO includes in its prospectuses.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/810893/000119312511156143/filename1.htm
These are not comments pro or con about either of the funds.

With the S&P 500 Index is approaching what I feel is good support (3,100 to 3,000) range I did a little equity buying (around the edges) today in a couple of my good dividend paying equity mutual funds that have yields of better than 3%. In comparison, the US10YrT closed today with a yield of 1.33%. I'm now leaning more towards the good equity dividend payers over fixed income while equities are "on sale." I have the S&P 500 Index currently off its 52 week high by about 8% as I write.

Prob 20k-50sk die in NAmericar < much less than flu incidents > by late spring

As the current mortality statistic of this virus is 20X that of the routine flu, your numbers purely depend on the numbers of those infected. I'm not sure how the American public would respond with the quarantines we're now seeing around the world.

Prob 20k-50sk die in NAmericar < much less than flu incidents > by late spring

preaching to the choir. HY Munis are more than 50% of my portfolio :-)

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=8b5WXouwOZK6sgXgkb6gCg&q=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&oq=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3...3162.3162..4327...0.0..0.106.106.0j1......0....2j1.......0.x4yqGNzH18k
Incognito search for article title
Rush to Invest in Municipal Debt Pushes Yields to Record Lows - WSJ
The new wave of demand Monday pushed bond yields to once-unheard-of levels. Yields on high-grade tax-exempt 30-year municipal bonds fell to 1.627% Monday, 46% lower than in February of last year, according to financial analytics company ICE Data

Tweety Amin just announced a COVID-19 news conference at 6PM. 6PM? Really? I question the timing b/c they're likely trying to mitigate the likely continued market drop when nobody believes what he says. The Asian open should be interesting this evening.
... just have this running in the background as you watch/listen to him....

Some predictions whole world will get virus...thought we learned something new here
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/25/us-health-officials-say-coronavirus-will-likely-cause-a-global-pandemic.html

This cornavirus could become pandemic. Everything is globally connected and this could slower growth or even recession.
https://cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-pandemic-frieden/index.html
Look like a train wreck in slow motion.

HY Munis (OPTAX,ORNAX,NHMAX) continue their up trend.
YTD...OPTAX 5.6%...ORNAX 4.7%...NHMAX 4.9-5%

Hi @Derf
I'll say laughingly that we sold all of our technology at near the high point, for the day, on Monday morning. We've held this position for a number of years and so have taken the money and "ran".
However, we still have healthcare and med. tech. for equity. As there is not mercy today for equity, even these got whacked today.
We're at:
--- 45% bonds
--- 27% cash
--- 28% equity
We would like the portfolio to be otherwise, but such is the nature of the business.
Read my add at the COVID thread for other thoughts.
Take care,
Catch

I honestly hope this virus runs its course shortly and dies away on it's own.
Well, now we're at this point; where the general public, who hasn't been paying attention are going to have reports shown more frequently on their tv's. The below two, are the pronouncements that go past the algo trading or whatever else one chooses to determine "profit taking".
I continue to watch data reports regarding COVID-19, and this in itself is troublesome. And as has been discussed previous, supply chain issues in many market areas; and also to the point of further restrictions in travel, via whatever means. Visa/MC have reduced profit estimates from just 1 month ago, as usage will be down. And what about the Walmarts and $ stores; among all of their product lines. A simple example is that 85% of all toys/games related are imported from China.
Sanofi and Gilead have noted, among other researchers; that any type of successful vaccine is generally anticipated to have about a 12 month time frame
I'm not going to drag this further.
WHO press conference, 'Now is the time to prepare', Feb. 24
CDC warns of 'severe disruptions', Feb. 25
There is no mercy in the equity market place at this time, as; even our healthcare and med. tech. is getting the big head slap, which are our only equity exposure at this time.
Lastly, if you have an alternative view of this post; please comment. I'm only writing about what I interpret to be the current circumstance. Other viewpoints are needed.
Seriously.....take care of you and yours,
Catch