Howdy, Not to write as being dispassionate towards the circumstance of COVID-19 and those dealing with this; but also that I am not in a position to offer any direct assistance for a remedy.
I wrote on Jan. 21:
As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.
So now we (our house) have to decide whether this (COVID-19) will become a global economic event that will shape our portfolio in a dramatic fashion. It is not as much about how we feel; but how those who control the advances and declines in our portfolio choose their path.
A few considerations for those who alter the path of our portfolio are: sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance company investments, central banks ,wealthy individual investors, and of course; the algo machines. As to the humans involved with money flows in these organizations, that aside from what the "numbers" may show them; is that, they too, have their shaped behavioral human nature and how they think.
We do not tend to move money in or out of a position with averaging; but rather in large chunks. Now to decide whether to take some profits from investments in the growth side, with fingers crossed, OR unload
50% OR hold tight.
Lastly, I had several links I considered. But, good timely data is readily available. The virus numbers continue to grow and into more countries. China we know about, South Korea has had a rapid cases increase since Thursday, Japan has more scattered cases, northern Italy has closed off several communities, etc, etc, etc.
A large concern, especially from the industrial nations, is growing supply chain shortages. It is one thing to have a facility closed and alter production for electronics, vehicles and such; and a whole different circumstance revolving around medicinal compounds, products and devices.
The consumer and other workers is another aspect when they can't or don't want to venture outside. An older model in the U.S. suggested that the "old" Michigan auto industry in it's glory days supported another
5 or so workers in the community.
I'm rambling now........time to stop pecking the keyboard.
Please share your thoughts. Perhaps I need a good kick in the arse.
Take care,
Catch