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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rothko Emerging Markets Equity Fund to liquidate
    I wonder why Mondrian (financial parent of Rothko) started a second EM fund when it had been running MPEMX for several years. MPEMX is hardly a great fund, but it still managed to outperform the soon to be liquidated Rothko. Over RKEMX's lifetime (12/18/2018 to present, i.e. 10/15/2020), it returned a cumulative 2% (!), vs MPEMX's cumulative return of 19.46%. That in turn was a tad (2/3%) under the category average.
    I never really "got" Rothko. Mondrian is more to my liking. Though in art as in investing, what one prefers can be a matter of personal taste.

  • AST Goldman Sachs Global Income Portfolio to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814679/000168386320013977/f7248d1.htm
    497 1 f7248d1.htm 497
    ADVANCED SERIES TRUST
    AST Goldman Sachs Global Income Portfolio
    Supplement dated October 16, 2020
    to the Currently Effective Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    This supplement should be read in conjunction with the currently effective Advanced Series Trust (the Trust) Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (SAI), and the Summary Prospectus for the AST Goldman Sachs Global Income Portfolio (the Portfolio or the Target Portfolio). The Portfolio discussed in this supplement may not be available under your variable contract. For more information about the portfolios available under your variable contract, please refer to your contract prospectus. Defined terms used herein and not otherwise defined shall have the meanings given to them in the Trust Prospectus and SAI.
    At a meeting of the shareholders of the Target Portfolio held on October 15, 2020, shareholders approved the reorganization (the Reorganization) of the Target Portfolio into the AST Wellington Management Global Bond Portfolio (the Acquiring Portfolio), each a series of the Trust. The Acquiring Portfolio will change its name to the "AST Global Bond Portfolio" on or about November 16, 2020.
    Pursuant to the Reorganization, the assets and liabilities of the Target Portfolio will be exchanged for shares of the Acquiring Portfolio, and Target Portfolio shareholders will become shareholders of the Acquiring Portfolio. No sales charges will be imposed in connection with the Reorganization. The Acquiring Portfolio shares to be received by Target Portfolio shareholders in the Reorganization will be equal in value to the Target Portfolio shares held by such shareholders immediately prior to the Reorganization. It is expected that the Reorganization will be completed on or about November 16, 2020.
    THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ AND RETAINED FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    826SUP2
  • Rothko Emerging Markets Equity Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1651872/000139834420020218/fp0058698_497.htm
    (RKEMX)
    GALLERY TRUST
    (the “Trust”)
    Rothko Emerging Markets Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated October 16, 2020 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, dated June 25, 2020, and
    Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated March 1, 2020, as supplemented June 25, 2020
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Rothko Investment Strategies, a division of Mondrian Investment Partners Limited (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to new investments effective as of the Fund’s close of business on October 16, 2020. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about October 29, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” section of the Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    MON-SK-007-0100
  • pump and dump and pump, last Feb
    Disgusting swamp goo.

    I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (
    here).
    But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.

    You obviously do not know and have not cared to find out that this is bullshit and has been known to be so for some time. Do I need to post cites? I mean, seriously, dude.

    Except now we have the PC hard drive with the emails or rather the repair guy does.
    I suppose "The Swamp" is in the eye of the beholder.
    GOP Senator Sasse certainly has his opinion of "The Swamp".
  • Markets Without Havens - VMVFX
    Several funds I would hold longer term.
    Stocks/allocation:
    PRWCX has been my top moderate allocation for years and YTD did well. Great manager with insight.
    VWINX/VWIAX-has been my top conservative allocation for years and YTD did well. Great long term team investing in stocks and Corp bonds which is the "secret" of theis fund.
    Beyond that simple indexes such as SPY. For more growth simple QQQ
    Remember, 40% of the SP500 and 50% of QQQ revenues are from abroad.
    Bonds:
    BIV a great ballast index and better than BND at about 50% treasuries (better ballast) + 50% investment grade Corp(better for rate rise+higher distributions). BIV has better performance from 3 months to 10 years. BIV er=0.05 is cheap and you can buy it with no commission. BIV is so good you can use it instead of managed core + core plus funds.
    PTIAX in the Multi sector category
    ============
    VMVFX used to be pretty good but is doing bad.
    PIMIX-used to be an easy choice but lost its mojo in early 2018. There is a new fund JASVX in MBS/securitized. It did well in the crash and YTD. Can't guarantee you anything.
    THOPX-I never liked it. Looks Sometimes OK but crashes.
    ============
    Voaltility: I have learned over the years that only several funds can play volatility well longer term but it's difficult to predict and why I'm the one who does it manually.
    Momentum: similar to the above, funds can do pretty well for several years and suddenly be behind for years because the environment changed(example: growth vs value). This is why diversification is not a good choice if you can observe this.
    Do I really need to hold 10+ funds...3 moderate allocation + 3 conservative allocation + 3 LC stock funds + 3 SC,MC + 3 international?
    You can do it all with 5-7 funds.
  • Markets Without Havens - VMVFX
    Nice article Bee, thank you for sharing.
    I've been phasing into ARTTX (Artisan Partners Focus Fund) the past week or so, do like that it attempts to be "risk - aware", looking at crowding, volatility, correlation, factor analysis, macro drivers, liquidity, stress tests and can use options to mitigate risk etc
    Also hold TGUNX TCW Premier New America, full of cash flow rich, compounders, lower asset base
    I attempt to barbell these holdings with ROSOX (Rondure Overseas) in case of falling dollar, FPFIX FPA Flex Income, IOFIX Q Infinity and large holdings in DERI Dominion notes, like money market, no FDIC, easy access to funds and 5 year CDs.
    Who knows what will happen...do think this Virus etc has pulled forward many trends, one of them being software companies etc who are losing money now but are growing their market share tremendously and will have huge revenue streams with the life time value of customer annuity effect when customers get into their eco system and don't want to change out...many mutual fund managers are older (maybe not in age but maybe in thinking/training) and might be fighting the last war...
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball_Fan
  • SEC Probes Small Bond Trades That Lead to Big Returns ‘Odd lot’ buying in mortgage portfolios -WSJ
    This is a WSJ October 12, 2020 article by Justin Baer which identifies AlphaCentric Income but also mentions some other possible funds: Semper MBS Total Return, Deer Park Total Return Credit Fund and Performance True Strategic Bond Fund.
    The article states how in each instance, the fund bought those mortgage securities in small “odd lots,” or increments of less than $1 million, according to a securities filing.
    The article mentions how odd lots often trade at a discount to larger, “round-lot” positions. Sometimes these discounts are not being applied buy rely on a third parties that use pricing on round lots on the same trading security.
    There is a pay wall -interesting article.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-probes-small-bond-trades-that-lead-to-big-returns-11602495001
    Can be viewed in inprivate window in Mozilla.
  • pump and dump and pump, last Feb
    Disgusting swamp goo.

    I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (
    here).
    But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.

    You obviously do not know and have not cared to find out that this is bullshit and has been known to be so for some time. Do I need to post cites? I mean, seriously, dude.
    Except now we have the PC hard drive with the emails or rather the repair guy does.
    I suppose "The Swamp" is in the eye of the beholder.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    @Zolta, IOFIX min is only $100K at Schwab. I'm guessing your investments is at Fidelity. This is one of the reason I transferred most of my money to Schwab. Fidelity also have a million dollar min on Pimco Instit share funds too.
    My technique is not recommended to anybody, it takes skills to know when to change. When I started investing this way 20 years ago it was simpler. About twice a year I looked for the best 5 risk/reward funds and kept changing but I used 3 (60%) as core and 2 funds as explore. The funds had to be in the top 30% of performance at all times which made sure I would not hold lagging funds for years.
    I never cared about OVER diversification. The funds mangers can do whatever they want I just expect good performance and SD(volatility) which led to good Sharpe+Sortino.
  • The Long Term Returns of Retail Fund - FSRPX
    @bee, fwiw, for the last 5y VONG is similar, sometimes better, though beyond that Fido mostly rules.
  • Rethinking Retirement
    Regarding rethinking retirement. I am reading a book by Bill Perkins titled Die With Zero. I thought it was going to merit a one star review but now not so sure. It has really made me think. The gist of the book is to use your money for life experiences before you get too old to enjoy such experiences. Most of us instead are into the senselessness of indefinitely delaying gratification. And then we suddenly wake up and have one health problem after another and there is no gratification to enjoy.
    In my case at 73 I am still hiking away with no health issues. But looking back to my sixties there are a lot of things I wish I had done then I don’t particularly feel like doing anymore. Such as cross country traveling to places like Colorado and my old stomping grounds in the Sierras for off the beaten path hiking adventures. My long time girlfriend who is 71 can no longer hike with me because of osteoporosis and that has really put a damper on things. So my advice to you youngsters in your 50s and 60s do whatever now, don’t wait. There are some things in life you don’t need a huge nest egg for. I have a friend who is 56 and a triathlete. He pretty much lives hand to mouth but every year finds a way to travel out west for a couple weeks of extensive hiking as well as participating in a couple triathlons in some exotic locations. Sometimes I envy him and his carefree attitude.
    I also have been so focused on accumulating and not spending I find myself with a nest egg of 70x living expenses. I can think of a couple environmental organizations in my will who will enjoy my eventual passing. Again, to you youngsters, enjoy the fruits of your labor when you are at peak health and don’t get so obsessed with accumulation.
  • pump and dump and pump, last Feb
    Disgusting swamp goo.

    I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (
    here).
    But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.

    You obviously do not know and have not cared to find out that this is bullshit and has been known to be so for some time. Do I need to post cites? I mean, seriously, dude.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    FD 1000, thanks for the lucid explanation. I understand how you can make your goals
    by your plan. Unfortunately for me, I can't do it. Using the IOFIX example, one would have to invest 1 million (minimum required) in IOFIX to make $7500 holding the fund for that productive a month. I have neither the money nor the courage to put that much on the line when the same unexpected drop that occurred in February to March can recur in our present uncertain times. So, I dither along making $ 10-20k investments at a time.
    Do you have any suggestions on modifying your technique for smaller sized investments?
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Below is a chart of the SP500. When do I buy stocks (usually SP500 or QQQ)?
    I look for at least 5-8% loss from the last top. Then I need to see:
    1) MACD goes from higher negative to positive
    2) Uptrend in price for several days
    3) If price crossed the SP500 it's better
    I buy for 2-5 days to make 2+%.
    There are other signs but it's a good start.
    You may think it’s bogus but I have been using T/A for years with a very high success rate.
    Why the above works? because the more the market goes down, there is a good chance it will come back at least 50-60% of the lose. I'm looking for the first sign of momentum, join it and leave within days.
    image
    =========
    For bond funds where I make most of my money I look for momentum + SD in the last 1-4 weeks (but also look at long term) + other factors.
    Again, I have done very nicely as the numbers showed. The key for me it to make money slowly and lose almost nothing. I follow funds and categories to see where is momentum. What seems a lot of work for most, it's a passion of mine and many times I do nothing for several weeks-months. Of course, T/A is only one aspect of it, a visual of a chart is very helpful because I can see many funds on the same chart. Look at a simple (chart) with 2 funds, can you guess which one is better? IOFIX is better because the uptrend is gradual and goes up while PIMIX chart goes down then up which means IOFIX momentum and volatility is better.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Sticking to the original topic, as I meant no insult to any individual posters here, OJ or FD1000, I find, to be more specific, much albeit not all of technical analysis to be nonsense. I think volume data is useful in the right hands, as are advance decline, short-term momentum, and investor sentiment ratios, but it is this specific rearview analysis in the article of long-term past returns I find to be ridiculous:
    April has been the strongest month this century, rising 80% of the time AND producing average monthly gains of 2.5%. The second- and third-best months are November (rises 79% of the time, with average monthly gains of 1.7%) and October (rises 70% of the time, with average monthly gains of 1.3%), respectively. In fact, if we look at the S&P 500, there have only been 7 years when this benchmark index has fallen during both October AND November. Here are the years:
    1951, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1987, 2000, 2008.
    5 of those 7 years occurred during the secular bear markets from the 1970s and 2000s. 1987 was when we had Black Monday and the resulting fallout the next month (November). Outside of those years, we've had ONE year since 1950 when we've been in a secular bull market and saw the S&P 500 slide during both October and November in the same year. I think it's safe to say that the odds really favor the bulls during the balance of 2020.
    Let's take it one step further. If we look at the S&P 500 from the close on October 27th through the close on January 18th of the following calendar year, our benchmark index has ended this period higher than it started in 61 of the last 70 years. It's risen 35 times in the past 38 years during that period. I'd say the odds are definitely on the bulls' side. But it's not just the frequency of the gains, it's the size of them. Before I give you this next stat, keep in mind that the S&P 500 has averaged gaining roughly 9% per year since 1950. Would you like to know how many times the S&P 500 has gained at least 9% during this "less-than-90-day-period"? 17. And if we lower the bar to 8% or more, the number swells to 25 times in the past 70 years.
    What if I said that the NASDAQ's history during this period is even more bullish? Because it is. The average gain on the S&P 500 during that October 28th through January 18th period is 4.59%. The NASDAQ? +6.20%. Furthermore, over the past three decades, here are the 4 best calendar months on the NASDAQ in terms of annualized returns:
    To look at history based merely on the price movements in the past without any real analysis as to why that price movement occurred--say falling interest rates, age demographics, America becoming a super power after the wars, and not being in the midst of a terrible pandemic for instance--and whether similar conditions are present today is stupid and useless to me, and reaks of snakeoil salesmen.
    However, there is use in some technical data I believe for measuring the "psychology" of the market in the short-term.
  • Rethinking Retirement
    NYT article -
    What has emerged from your research that retirees should think about?
    The importance of interdependence alongside independence — we all would do better in our later years if we’re connected and not isolated. And how do I maximize my health span, not just my life span?
    And there’s the serious issue of funding our longer lives. A third of the boomers have close to nothing saved for retirement and no pensions; that is a massive poverty phenomenon about to happen, unless millions of people work a bit longer, spend less, downsize or even share their homes with housemates or family.
    What is the biggest mistake retirees make?
    Far too many think far too small. I have asked thousands of people from all walks of life over the years who are nearing retirement what they hope to do in retirement. They tell me: ‘I want to get some rest, exercise some more, visit with my family, go on a great vacation, read some great books’ Then most stall. Few have taken the time or effort to study the countless possibilities that await them or imagine or explore all of the incredible ways they can spend the next period of their lives.
    rethinking-retirement
  • The Long Term Returns of Retail Fund - FSRPX
    I was first attracted to this fund, FSRPX, when I was creating a list of mutual funds with consistently high risk adjusted returns. It's management captures 148% of the upside (of the Consumer Cyclical Index) while suffering only 91% of the Index's downside losses in down markets.
    It continues to deliver those results long term. Its 5, 10, and 15 trailing returns has placed this fund in the top 1% of Consumer Cyclical funds. It is a concentrated fund in which just 10 companies account for 66% of the fund's assets.
    FSRPX - M* Profile:
    https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fsrpx/quote
    Forbes Article -
    The Tale of Retail
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Lots of BS about me. How nice is to post trash without any proof.
    ==============
    @davidrmoran:but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar
    FD: I'm a multimillionaire but not philanthropist or making money posting on seekingalpha.
    =============
    @davidrmoran: plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty.
    FD: why do you think I should pay any penalty? I have special arrangement at Schwab where I have a dedicated trader that buys all the Inst funds for me with no commissions and I can sell these funds within one day (I don't buy funds that have longer mandatory hold). Example: IOFIX,PIMIX. If I don’t buy Inst funds and these funds are not Schwab fund and I sell within 90 days I do pay the $49.95 short term penalty which is nothing compared to the amount I'm making.
    ===============
    @Junkster,
    Your posts have several examples of liars, are you insinuating that I lied too?. I never claimed that I made a very high %, just a pretty good performance with very low SD. Remember, since I retired in 2018, we have enough money to sustain our standard of living for another 40-50 years if our portfolio will make just 4% annually including inflation. Our portfolio is 35+ times our annual expense without our SS. This is why I set up the following goals: make 6% average annually with the lowest SD I can get (preferably under 3) and never lose 3% from any last top. We don’t care about maximizing performance anymore but to meet our specific goals. To do that I use mainly bond mutual funds + several short term trades (hours-days) using stocks/ETF/CEFs/other. The 3 year results are much better than my goals. I never lost more than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years. Below is a copy from my Schwab accounts as of yesterday which is about 95% of our total money. There is no way to achieve these results without being a good trader and why I posted other funds too
    3 year performance/SD...SPY 13.1%/17.7...VBINX (60/40) 10%/11.1....VWIAX (40/60) 7.046.6%/...PIMIX 3.75%/5.6....IOFIX 0.2%/23.7
    My portfolio performance was 9.9% annually for 3 year with SD=2.18
    Below you can see an image of performance as of 10/14/2020 from Schwab. Column 1=one year...Column 2=YTD...Column 3=one year...Column 4=3 years
    image
    Below is the SD for one year and 3 years
    image
  • pump and dump and pump, last Feb
    Disgusting swamp goo.
    I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (here).
    But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    I've looked at PIMIX before. $125B AUM. I stayed away. That's just beyond bloated. Just my preference.
    Although Pimco can manage funds with considerable AUM better than most firms, I agree that PIMIX has become too bloated. The legacy RMBS that helped propel the fund for years are in short supply now and it will be difficult for the fund to take a meaningful position in these securities. Philosophically, I dislike Pimco's record of not closing any funds (to my knowledge) due to excessive AUM.