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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Muni Yield Curve. Bond yields fall as prices ris
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=8b5WXouwOZK6sgXgkb6gCg&q=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&oq=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3...3162.3162..4327...0.0..0.106.106.0j1......0....2j1.......0.x4yqGNzH18k
    Incognito search for article title
    Rush to Invest in Municipal Debt Pushes Yields to Record Lows - WSJ
    The new wave of demand Monday pushed bond yields to once-unheard-of levels. Yields on high-grade tax-exempt 30-year municipal bonds fell to 1.627% Monday, 46% lower than in February of last year, according to financial analytics company ICE Data
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Tweety Amin just announced a COVID-19 news conference at 6PM. 6PM? Really? I question the timing b/c they're likely trying to mitigate the likely continued market drop when nobody believes what he says. The Asian open should be interesting this evening.
    ... just have this running in the background as you watch/listen to him....

  • A History of -3% Down Days
    This cornavirus could become pandemic. Everything is globally connected and this could slower growth or even recession.
    https://cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-pandemic-frieden/index.html
    Look like a train wreck in slow motion.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    HY Munis (OPTAX,ORNAX,NHMAX) continue their up trend.
    YTD...OPTAX 5.6%...ORNAX 4.7%...NHMAX 4.9-5%
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    Hi @Derf
    I'll say laughingly that we sold all of our technology at near the high point, for the day, on Monday morning. We've held this position for a number of years and so have taken the money and "ran".
    However, we still have healthcare and med. tech. for equity. As there is not mercy today for equity, even these got whacked today.
    We're at:
    --- 45% bonds
    --- 27% cash
    --- 28% equity
    We would like the portfolio to be otherwise, but such is the nature of the business.
    Read my add at the COVID thread for other thoughts.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    I honestly hope this virus runs its course shortly and dies away on it's own.
    Well, now we're at this point; where the general public, who hasn't been paying attention are going to have reports shown more frequently on their tv's. The below two, are the pronouncements that go past the algo trading or whatever else one chooses to determine "profit taking".
    I continue to watch data reports regarding COVID-19, and this in itself is troublesome. And as has been discussed previous, supply chain issues in many market areas; and also to the point of further restrictions in travel, via whatever means. Visa/MC have reduced profit estimates from just 1 month ago, as usage will be down. And what about the Walmarts and $ stores; among all of their product lines. A simple example is that 85% of all toys/games related are imported from China.
    Sanofi and Gilead have noted, among other researchers; that any type of successful vaccine is generally anticipated to have about a 12 month time frame
    I'm not going to drag this further.
    WHO press conference, 'Now is the time to prepare', Feb. 24
    CDC warns of 'severe disruptions', Feb. 25
    There is no mercy in the equity market place at this time, as; even our healthcare and med. tech. is getting the big head slap, which are our only equity exposure at this time.
    Lastly, if you have an alternative view of this post; please comment. I'm only writing about what I interpret to be the current circumstance. Other viewpoints are needed.
    Seriously.....take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    @MikeM For awhile means what 10-15-20 % drop ? I missed my chance back in 2018 4/th quarter drop.
    Derf
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020

    Yup. See my previous post above yours. Will continue to nibble as appropriate
    lots folks especially near retirement has bailed long time ago. probably best to have 50/50 if near retired/retired
    anyone buying today or next few days once the dust maybe settling down?
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    lots folks especially near retirement has bailed long time ago. probably best to have 50/50 if near retired/retired
    anyone buying today or next few days once the dust maybe settling down?
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Scroll down 1/2 of the page for the graphic.
    Market reactions during virus emergencies
  • Daily Financial News Aggregator
    For those looking for daily Financial News Articles in one place:
    streetsleuth.com/#tab1
    Here's a good one from today's links that relates to Mutual Funds/ETFs:
    https://etftrends.com/smart-beta-channel/how-to-invest-for-the-5g-revolution/
    Topic (Cell Tower REITS) led me to this:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4280713-cell-tower-reits-for-5g-4-beats-3
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    NOTE:
    Obviously, there are massive gyrations in the markets this morning.
    Currently, at 5 minutes past the market open; there is no access to the Fidelity site for log-in.
    I'm sure this circumstance is common to other vendor sites, too.
    My presumption, is that enough retail investors are at least checking portfolios; overwhelming the servers and/or the networks ability to connect.
    This site page is an interesting overview, near real time, of global ETF's for all of the major market sectors.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    A lot of it depends on your time horizon. My wife and I will remain fully invested in US growth funds and don't anticipate making any changes due to COVID-19. We don't have any emerging market or overseas funds because the US is the premier global economy and we expect it to remain so for years to come.
    However, if the virus starts to seriously disrupt the global supply chain then some of our tech and large-cap funds could definitely be impacted in the short term. But over a 15-20 year time frame I'm not concerned.
    Another factor to consider is that the Chinese communist state has almost certainly deliberately misrepresented the number of infections and deaths. The real number may be 10, 100, or even 1000 times higher than they claim. China's chronic dishonesty may well prove to be the real virus.
    Still, I would strongly advise against making any knee-jerk changes to a portfolio which, like us, you might have taken years to craft.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    First post. Hello all. I think this disease will effect mkts a lot. I have most everything at TRowe inc. my Roth and 403b. Have been in PRHSX and PRGTX along with PRNEX when prices drop for energy or the fund fall into the low 30s at least. Few weeks ago I move most everything to PREMX and PRULX just keeping some shares of the others to keep them open. I got bit a few times when funds closed....
    I have been stalking you all here for a few weeks and know many of you just sit tight and rebalance but I do feel that moving things to bond funds like I have when I have made good gains and the market seems to be about to burst works for me. Of course if GTX drops down to the $14-$15 range I will shift again perhaps. I know I have missed some gains the last 10 years but am still above 8% and some years more still. I am in my mid 40s and need to build not just maintain. Wife's things are with Janus because it sounds like her mom's name (you should see her pick the final 4 LOL) Thanks for adding me, I have been looking for a place like this. Split my board time here and on WUS.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    @Derf
    We don't do dice for investments and the Magic 8 Ball is in the shop for repairs.
    I will check Khan Academy for die rolling data outcomes relative to investments.
    @WABAC
    2019-2020 flu season data was noted here recently; but this is the current data for week ending Feb. 15
    --- CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu
    However, traditional flu season illness or deaths have not affected our investment portfolio in the past. Obviously, my death from influenza related conditions would have an impact on portfolio decisions.
  • Risks build in world's largest bond funds
    I "love" GMO forecasts. In 12/31/2010 GMO 7 years forecast (link)
    was that US LC would make 0.4% + 2.5% inflation = 2.9% and US SC would make -1.9%+2.5%=+0.6%. GMO was way off, for 7 years SPY made 13.65% annually return while IWM made “only” 11.65%
  • Investors prospered by staying the course
    Investors prospel by staying the course
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.stltoday.com/business/local/report-investors-prospered-by-staying-the-course/article_8a368181-c1ac-5665-9ce9-e1c4335ec5d4.amp.html
    Investors in “allocation” funds, which hold a mix of stocks and bonds, earned more than the funds themselves, indicating that the majority of investors put more money in the funds when prices were low than when prices were high. Target-date funds, which fall into this group, are likely the main reason for the category’s better performance. These funds, which invest in a mix of stocks and bonds that grows more conservative as investors near retirement, are predominantly held in workplace retirement plans, in which investors tend to hold for the long term and invest at regular intervals.
    Investors showed the worst timing when they invested in alternative funds — investments designed to provide returns that aren’t correlated with stock or bond markets. Those funds didn’t benefit from a general upward trend, surrendering an average 0.61% annualized return over the 10-year rolling periods. But investors fared much worse, losing 2.05%
    Tdf maybe good ways to go long term
  • Risks build in world's largest bond funds
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=h2dSXr3LGYGqsgWXs5SQDg&q=Risks+build+in+world’s+largest+bond+funds&oq=Risks+build+in+world’s+largest+bond+funds&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3..33i299l3.2026.6292..7973...3.0..0.112.377.4j1......0....1j2.......0..0i131j0j46j46i131.i0dLO_JC_6Q
    'Ultra-low interest rates and a flood of debt issuance by US companies have led to a silent accumulation of risks in some of the world's largest bond'
    Incognito Google search
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Howdy, Not to write as being dispassionate towards the circumstance of COVID-19 and those dealing with this; but also that I am not in a position to offer any direct assistance for a remedy.
    I wrote on Jan. 21:
    As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
    If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
    Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
    I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
    Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.
    So now we (our house) have to decide whether this (COVID-19) will become a global economic event that will shape our portfolio in a dramatic fashion. It is not as much about how we feel; but how those who control the advances and declines in our portfolio choose their path.
    A few considerations for those who alter the path of our portfolio are: sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance company investments, central banks ,wealthy individual investors, and of course; the algo machines. As to the humans involved with money flows in these organizations, that aside from what the "numbers" may show them; is that, they too, have their shaped behavioral human nature and how they think.
    We do not tend to move money in or out of a position with averaging; but rather in large chunks. Now to decide whether to take some profits from investments in the growth side, with fingers crossed, OR unload 50% OR hold tight.
    Lastly, I had several links I considered. But, good timely data is readily available. The virus numbers continue to grow and into more countries. China we know about, South Korea has had a rapid cases increase since Thursday, Japan has more scattered cases, northern Italy has closed off several communities, etc, etc, etc.
    A large concern, especially from the industrial nations, is growing supply chain shortages. It is one thing to have a facility closed and alter production for electronics, vehicles and such; and a whole different circumstance revolving around medicinal compounds, products and devices.
    The consumer and other workers is another aspect when they can't or don't want to venture outside. An older model in the U.S. suggested that the "old" Michigan auto industry in it's glory days supported another 5 or so workers in the community.
    I'm rambling now........time to stop pecking the keyboard.
    Please share your thoughts. Perhaps I need a good kick in the arse.
    Take care,
    Catch