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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A question for the senior members of the group. Preparing for cognitive decline and more.
    Wow. Who isn’t thinking about that? Depends so much on somebody’s situation. I tend to worry a lot. So I’ve long contemplated that the worst possible “1-2 punch” in retirement might be: (1) loose half or more of your invested assets in a market crash and than (2) get hit with very high inflation for the next decade. That’s not a prediction. Just a worst case scenario, Like I said, I worry a lot.
    I’ve heard good things about Wellesley on the board over the years. It appears to be moderate risk with a beta according to Lipper of .38. I’d guess my own do-it-yourself portfolio (age 75) right now to have a beta somewhat lower than that - but have never attempted to measure it. At Lipper / Marketwatch, clicking on “Risk & Return” ” tab brings up a fund’s beta - one measure of volatility.
    I think your thinking in terms of late life portfolio positioning is on the right track Larry. As far as the cognitive issues, it’s an area I can’t offer any insights on. I work out daily, eat a healthy diet, etc. etc.
  • Smead International Value
    Good morning : I went to place an order for above MF, UP popped !!
    1. Purchase of this mutual fund is not approved for residents of your state.
    First time I received that message
  • International Version of PRWCX
    I think golub1 is correct. The only way to get there is to build your own. But it sure would be nice to have 1 well managed international balanced/allocation fund doing the work for you.
    Still unbelievable to me that a 60:40 balanced type fund using international equity and international bonds exclusively doesn't exist. Seems like that would be something easy for Vanguard to market using their index funds. Would it ever match PRWCX? Oh I doubt it, unless that cloning Giroux thing hank mentioned pans out.
    A few very good world or global funds mentioned in this thread seem to be the closest thing available.
  • International Version of PRWCX
    Looking @ everyone's comments I think there are no single comparable International funds. I think though that a combination of at least 2 or 3 funds will be a better choice. PRWCX Equity holdings basically mirror those of a conservative large
    Growth fund or Large Blend fund. The 30% non-equity holdings are very unlike typical 50 - 70 allocation funds. Per Morningstar as of 12/31, these 3 categories of non equities have the following Portfolio Weights.
    Bank Loan 37.35%
    Cash & Equivalents 37.34%
    Corporate Bond 21.83%
    While I feel comfortable selecting a large Blend International Fund like TROSX or MDILX, but not sure what single bond fund would be a match fund, and I don't think an International Bond fund is necessary. Therefore maybe a bank loan fund, cash and a Corp bond fund that invests in Low Quality Limited Sensitivity
    to interest rates. Not sure about a Corporate Bond choice - just following the Morningstar description. Thanks for all your suggestions. Any suggestions for the multiple fund concept?
  • Global Bonds Rally as Meta, Growth Concern Fan Demand for Havens
    (Excerpt) The rally came as technology bellwethers Meta Platforms Inc. and Spotify Technology SA forecast slowing growth, adding to concerns that monetary policy tightening will hurt the global economy.“The main news this morning is Meta’s numbers falling short of estimates,” said Andrew Ticehurst, rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “This has given us a bit of risk off, with E-mini around 1% lower, the Aussie and kiwi a little softer and bond yields down a few basis points,” he said, referring to S&P 500 futures.Benchmark 10-year yields in Australia and New Zealand fell at least four basis points. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with the 10-year yield down one basis point to 1.76%. Japan’s benchmark held steady at 0.175% after touching a six-year high of 0.185% this week.
    What’s interesting is that late Wednesday evening the futures markets are looking glum, with the NASDAQ off 2.25%. Asian markets lower as well. Hoping not a bad sign for Thursday. I also think the movement in bonds is interesting - especially if it carries over to the U.S. markets Thursday.. FWIW - I can’t see how the issues re the Ukraine can be helping matters any.
    Bloomberg is quoting 1.76% on the 10 year late Wednesday. That’s very close to the 1.74% it reached last March, So the Fed can “huff and puff” all they want. Yes, they can push short term rates a lot higher. But if longer term rates (market driven) don’t cooperate they face a real dilemma ISTM.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bonds-rally-meta-growth-014605670.html
    (Had better luck with this link not running my ad blocker. Not a lot of news at late night hour, so took what could find.)
  • International Version of PRWCX
    Giroux co-managed PRWCX with Jeff Arricale in 2006, the pair succeeding Stephen Boesel. Prior to Bossel the fund had seen 2 prior managers. Arricale took a different position at Price the next year, leaving Giroux in charge at PRWCX, and then left the firm in 2010 embroiled in some type of personnel crisis (can’t recall the details).
  • International Version of PRWCX
    Several international funds have APR's comparable or better than PRWCX over different timeframes. But there does not appear to be any fund with a combination of high R, comparable Sortino and APR. Looking at the data, it does not appear that these indicators are useful towards finding a PRWCX equivalent for international.
    For example, below are some 15Y stats (Giroux has been running PRWCX since 2006 I think so 15Y is a good comparable stat)
    OSMAX: 10.6
    PRWCX: 10.3
    MATFX: 10.3
    FEAAX: 10.2
  • TRP ridiculousness
    I am not having any of these problems with TRP. I got my 1099 in the mail, it is also easily found on the TRP website once I log in. The only time I needed to talk to them on the phone I was attended to quickly and the person I spoke to was well-informed, efficient, and on-point. Mind you, that was over a year ago. But the 1099s are now and there's no problem.
  • International Version of PRWCX
    “It may be that there is no such animal as a good ex-US allocation fund because no single manager, playing the role of Mr Giroux, could cover all the bases, international investing being so complex.”
    1. How many international developed markets have outpaced the U.S. since PRWCX opened in 1986?
    2. What are the odds a manager would have successfully guessed which markets in advance?
    As an owner of PRWCX since the mid 90s I’m always a bit mystified by its ability to draw assets. Recall old line about how “past performance does not guarantee future return.” (sacrilege I’m sure)
    PRWCX itself is somewhat of a “moving target”, having evolved from a conservative mid-cap focused and less risky alternative for those investors who wanted something more tranquil than Price’s (much larger) most ubiquitous and highly successful fund, PRFDX, in those years. Without checking, I’m confident the average market cap of its holdings has increased steadily as the AUM has spiraled upwards.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Hmmm, our Form 1099 has been available on the TRP website since last week. We've also received a paper copy recently.
  • International Version of PRWCX
    As a follow up, in order to get more candidates, I lowered the Sortino threshold to 1.5 and picked the 10 highest rated funds(excluded country specific funds).
    Out of this crop popped out Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Inst and Fidelity Series International Growth both with a R of 0.88
  • International Version of PRWCX
    @david - tks
    Here is the two part exercise I did
    (1)Screened for international funds older than 5 years, Sortino > 2 and APR > 10. PRWCX Sortino and APR for past 5 years are 2.33 and 15.2 respectively
    (2)Run a correlation matrix on the result set with PRWCX
    The highest correlated are
    WCM Focused International Growth Inst (0.87)
    Brown Capital Management International Small Company Inst and WCM International Small Cap Growth Inst both tied at 0.85
  • TRP ridiculousness
    I get all my 1099 forms online several days ahead of the paper copies. Also I get notified when the forms are posted. The brokerages take several more weeks and by mid-February I would have all of them. The tax statement and account statement are located in different folders.
  • The Perfect Investor

    What are the most important attitudes and habits of successful investors? In this podcast, Paul examines this question through the lens of “hard work,” or what is often called “grit.” He references a special 6-minute TED talk by Angela Lee Duckworth, a psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvania. The video is about the importance of “grit” in your life. While the hard work and the passion of grit may make people more successful in their daily life, Paul makes the case that it may lead to worse outcomes as an investor. In fact, the grit for an investor is to remain still and let your investments take care of themselves.
    Since the grit is largely a matter of habits and attitude, Paul reads chapter 11 from Financial Fitness Forever. He discusses the importance of trust, resilience, perspective, patience and common sense, plus six productive habits that seem to favor investors over the long term.
    paulmerriman-the-perfect-investor
  • International Version of PRWCX
    I scanned for funds with high five-year correlations to PRCWX and high international exposure. I'm not arguing for or against them, but I'll note the Pax Sustainable Allocation (PAXWX, formerly Pax World) and Fidelity Advisor Multi-Asset Income (FAYZX) have correlations in the 90s with TRP and double-digit exposure to international equities. Both are lower vol / lower return (12% APR vs 15% for TRP) over the past five years but the correlation implies the possibility of some comparable thinking.
    The oddball is Prospector Capital Appreciation, which was launched by TRP Cap App's long-time manager (Richard Howard, who left after 7 years) to be a more nimble version of the fund. Fairly high correlation (93) and slightly more international, but distinctly weaker performance (50% greater volatility, 50% lower Sharpe, trailing by 350 bps).
    And yes, I am supposed to be writing two lectures for tomorrow's first-day-of-term classes. (sigh)
  • Vanguard today announced the addition of Ariel Investments, LLC, to its management roster
    American Funds are known for having lots of managers - some not even named. (And lots of fund classes too)
    But some others have many managers too. Fido Balanced has 12 named managers.
    VG may have thought that its Explorer didn't have enough with only 9 named managers from 5 subadvisors. So, it adds more with 6th subadvisor.
    May be someone has info on what is the record on this? Absolute or relative (per billion AUM).
  • Vanguard today announced the addition of Ariel Investments, LLC, to its management roster
    Ariel’s initial target allocation will be 10% of Vanguard Explorer Value Fund, with the balance of assets divided evenly between the fund’s two other tenured value managers.
    Hopefully this will improve these value funds.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Using the ICI monthly data on the assets of US mutual funds (OEFs) and ETFs, following are the cumulative fund allocations among stock, hybrid, bond and money-market funds. Hybrid funds include stocks and bonds but their ratios can vary widely. Funds-of-funds are not included to avoid double-counting. These data are not expected to change much month by month but may change notably over time. ICI data are published late in the month for the prior month. One can call these America's asset allocation.
    https://www.ici.org/statistics
    12/31/21
    OEFs: Stocks 54.6%, Hybrids 6.9%, Bonds 20.9%, M-Mkt 17.6%
    ETFs: Stocks 82.3%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.1%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.4%, Hybrids 5.6%, Bonds 20.1%, M-Mkt 13.9%
    LINK
  • BIVIX
    David: Thanks for the information. I use the fund with VELIX in the alternative long-short category. There R is .62 but only for 15 months, VELIX being relatively new.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Has anyone an idea of what's going on at TRP? They don't respond to messages, and I'm not getting on the phone merry-go-round. Although I received my 2021 1099 in the mail last week, it's still not posted online. Even though they say I can view seven years of statements and tax forms, they don't have ANY tax forms, and the last viewable statement was 7/20. Did they have a fire or some other disaster that we're not hearing about?