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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Just a FYI, doesn't sound like a much, but 1 year CDs have moved to 1.25% at Schwab. 2 year @ 2.2, 3 year 2.55. Something to keep an eye on, especially for retired folks or anyone wanting to hold cash in a portfolio. I believe 1 year CDs were below a 1/2 % not to long ago, so something to keep an eye on.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    @wxman123 - You have to set up an "automatic investment" schedule into the fund of choice once you've made your initial purchase at the $49.95 cost. The suggested schedule is along the lines of $X/quarter on a day of your choice but can be customized. Once selected it appears as though you need to make three such automatic investment purchases at $5 each but you can cancel the order after one additional investment has been made. I do this often after the market has taken a dump on my favored funds.
  • Big Stock Sales Are Supposed to Be Secret. The Numbers Indicate They Aren’t.
    "For years, something strange kept happening on Wall Street.
    Before a big shareholder could carry out plans to sell a slug of stock, the price dropped. It was as if other investors knew what was coming."

    Wall Street Journal Article
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    2/28/22
    Tiny changes from previous month.
    OEFs: Stocks 53.3%, Hybrids 7.1%, Bonds 21.5%, M-Mkt 18.2%
    ETFs: Stocks 81.9%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.5%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.4%, Hybrids 5.7%, Bonds 20.6%, M-Mkt 14.3%
    LINK
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    @Junkster That didn't happen. I have been watching the bond world shift during Q1 of 2022 (including in the mortgages area you mentioned yesterday) and expect that trend to continue for a few more months or longer. What tipped the scales on RCTIX were the circumstances surrounding the manager departure and the uncertainties created by that event. RCTIX has been a successful holding for me. But, with everything considered, it doesn't presently belong in my portfolio's OEF ballast sleeve. I also sold PEGAX in that sleeve recently. CBLDX and HMEZX are the two chosen replacements. (The ballast sleeve is the only OEF sleeve modified since the start of the year.)
  • Yen tumbles vs. dollar. What to make of this?

    Currency War - from Wikipedia
    Thought I remembered something about this from history class. ISTM the financial plight of some European nations (Germany in particular) led, albeit indirectly, to the outbreak of WW II. Some of this financial weakness stemmed from the harsh terms imposed on Germany at the conclusion of WW I. Generally, what goes around comes around.
    “Historically, competitive devaluations have been rare as countries have generally preferred to maintain a high value for their currency. Countries have generally allowed market forces to work, or have participated in systems of managed exchanges rates. An exception occurred when a currency war broke out in the 1930s when countries abandoned the gold standard during the Great Depression and used currency devaluations in an attempt to stimulate their economies. Since this effectively pushes unemployment overseas, trading partners quickly retaliated with their own devaluations. The period is considered to have been an adverse situation for all concerned, as unpredictable changes in exchange rates reduced overall international trade.” (Wikipedia Excerpt)
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    Decided to sell almost all shares of this multi-year position after reviewing the situation some more yesterday. Will watch on the sidelines until there is more clarity. (Retained a few shares as Fido now has a 100K minimum for opening a new position vs. 10K for subsequent share purchase.)
  • Parnassus Core Equity Fund
    I generally agree with the general impression that it can be harder or more expensive to purchase more third party funds at Fidelity than at Schwab. But it really depends on how you're looking to purchase and which funds in particular you are interested in.
    Individual examples don't say much one way or the other. BVEFX, TF at Schwab, NTF at Fidelity. MAAGX, unavailable at Schwab, NTF at Fidelity.
    Fidelity offers several institutional class shares (with TF) at reduced mins when purchased in IRAs. This is hard to find if you don't have a Fidelity account to submit test transactions. TIBIX is one example. $2.5M min in a taxable account, $2.5K in an IRA. If you want this in a taxable account, you'll have to go to Schwab. But if you want it in an IRA, Fidelity will accommodate you. And it will charge only $5 to make incremental purchases, as opposed to $49.95 at Schwab.
    If you're interested in getting the latest and greatest fund, it does seem more likely that it will show up earlier at Schwab than at Fidelity. Ultimately, it comes down to looking at funds on a case-by-case basis.
  • Cannabis Growth ETF to liquidate
    From Citywire:
    Morningstar chief ratings officer Jeff Ptak, described the fund’s performance in a Monday tweet:
    Cannabis Growth ETF ($BUDX) is to be liquidated on or about 4/29/22. It lost ~72% from incept to Mar. ‘20; then soared 325% over next 11 mos.; only to shed ~65% of its value between Feb. ‘21 and now. All told, lost ~58% of its value since incept. https://t.co/n29HkC0ERj
    — Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) March 28, 2022
  • Treasury 2Y-10Y Yield Spread (EOD)
    From my March, 2019 post regarding yield curve perspective from Campbell Harvey, Duke University, which includes several study links.
  • Yen tumbles vs. dollar. What to make of this?
    Also, if yen strengthens, is FXY a buy?
    The operative term there is “IF”.
    I’ve never had any luck playing the currency markets. If I understand @Crash correctly and their inflation rate is 1/2 % (0.50%) than I do understand the money printing going on and the intentional weakening of the Yen. They see it as a way to prevent slipping into a deflationary environment.
  • Treasury 2Y-10Y Yield Spread (EOD)
    Yield curve viewpoints, Bloomberg, Triple Take, Monday, March 28, 2022.
    IMO, worth a peek for varying thoughts.
    21 minute video
  • Is the FED really tightening ???
    Hi @WABAC
    And your delightful avatar for; Mr. Peabody and Sherman. I can imagine I watched all of the shows in 1959 and 1960. I didn't learn some history in the pure sense, but did learn about events in history. Helped me stay curious, I do believe.
    Pleased you found value in the linked article.
  • Treasury 2Y-10Y Yield Spread (EOD)
    2Y-10Y spread has collapsed to only 6 bps. Middle part of the Treasury yield curve has a small bulge, so some spreads are inverted.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST10Y-$UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66195125656
  • Basis for AT&T stock and its spinoff?
    It will be handled in what seems like the logical way. Your total cost basis is prorated based on the values of the stock you get (or keep) in each company.
    Here's the way Barron's puts it:
    AT&T holders are due to receive about 0.24 share of Warner Bros. Discovery for each AT&T share. AT&T shares were trading late Friday at $24.20, down 37 cents and Discovery stock was at $28.71, off 22 cents.
    Here’s how it would work. Holders would need to allocate part of their cost basis to AT&T and the rest to Warner Bros. Discovery based on stock prices at the time of the spinoff.
    Based on current prices, holders probably would allocate about 28% to Warner Bros. Discovery ($6.90 divided by $24.20) and the rest to AT&T.
    The value of the Discovery stock (as of when the article was written) = 0.24 x $28.71 = $6.90
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/taxes-att-spinoff-warnermedia-51644014937
  • "The Market"
    I don’t necessarily think the markets have bottomed. But then if they have I wouldn’t be surprised. Markets always bottom when the fundamentals and news look the worse. That has always been the case on Wall Street. March 2020 was a classic example when COVID was just in its infancy. While not needed, I would still prefer to see a strong upside/downside day on the NYSE. Something that has yet to occur. This is looking more like the 2015/16 bear/ correction bottom than the December 2019 or March 2020 bottom.
    But I am also aware that bear markets are notorious for sucker rallies that reel in the unsuspecting. As we stand today though the Dow, S@P and NASDAQ are closer to their all times highs than their recent bottoms.
  • Cannabis Growth ETF to liquidate
    The grass certainly must have looked greener on the other side when CANIX tried to turn over a new leaf by converting to BUDX.
    Converting [in Sept 2021 was] only logical for CANIX, which has easily outperformed popular cannabis ETFs such as MJ and YOLO yet hasn’t seen anything near their flows.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/cannabis-mutual-fund-about-to-join-50-billion-etf-switch-craze/
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834421018858/fp0068849_497.htm
    Though the whole sector seems to have gone to pot:
    YOLO down 53% since inception (April 2019)
    MJ down 38% since inception (Dec 2015)
    CNBS down 46% since inception (July 2019)
  • Nasty day for the inflation hedges …
    I can't see inflation is controlled. Supply chain to China in worse mess than last year, due to Covid. Ukraine production of commodities will be hit bad, and will take time to trickle through the markets, although the recent spikes are likely an overreaction. What will happen to Agricultural prices when the food riots start because Ukrainian wheat deliveries to the Middle East are cut by 2/3s? Even if the Ukraine produces, all theport facilities have been destroyed.
    The Chinese are applying a hammer to Covid. Hong Kong apparently has only vaccinated 1/3 of their elderly ( what were they thinking?) and that with an ineffective vaccine.
    For the mainland to react this way they must realize their vaccine is worthless. Surely they have data on how the lockdown of Wuhan worked, and if they are trying it again, it must be pretty bad.
    While this will crush demand there, it will also hit supplies of chips etc hard.
    I started an overweight in energy and commodities last year, and have not added much. I didn't over do it but the rise is mainly price appreciation. I don't think it is time to sell. I don't really believe in a "Super cycle" but prices have been low for so long, and the worlds population is only getting larger.
    .....I'm learning. Your valuable post is another example of why I stick to this webpage on a daily basis. And you put it all in such a way that even I can understand. :)
  • Cannabis Growth ETF to liquidate
    Not enough users...
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834422006487/fp0074517_497.htm
    Cannabis Growth ETF
    (Ticker Symbol: BUDX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 28, 2022 to the currently effective
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Cannabis Growth ETF (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund.
    The Fund will create and redeem creation units through April 25, 2022 (the “Closing Date”), which will also be the last day of trading of the Fund’s shares on the NYSE Arca, Inc., the Fund’s principal U.S. listing exchange. On or about April 29, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”), the Fund will cease operations, liquidate its assets, and prepare to distribute proceeds to shareholders of record as of the Liquidation Date. Shareholders of record on the Liquidation Date will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of such date. While Fund shareholders remaining on the Liquidation Date will not incur transaction fees, any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on a shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Foothill Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may sell their holdings on the NYSE Arca, Inc. on or prior to the Closing Date. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions. After the Closing Date, we cannot assure you that there will be a market for your shares.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-888-885-0588 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.