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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=370245
    The above link is must reading for anyone considering purchasing an immediate annuity. Immediate annuities are beginning to make some sense now that the 10 year Treasury is no longer in the 1% range. What you receive from an immediate annuity is dependent on your age and the 10 year rate. I would think an immediate annuity also makes more sense for a very healthy retiree in their mid to late 70s as opposed to someone younger and still in the accumulation phase. Anyone with health issues shouldn’t even consider an immediate annuity.
    Except for a QLAC, I don’t believe you can buy a deferred annuity if you are over a certain age (70?). I would think the biggest benefit for purchasing an annuity is peace of mind. I realize there are many cons against buying an annuity. I would also suggest sticking with only the soundest of insurers aka Massachusetts Life or New York Life. The former pays more than the later.
    It has been said immediate annuities are best for those worried about outliving their nest egg in old age. I can make a case they are best for those not worried about outliving their nest egg. If you are in the later category why not buy an annuity where your expenses are pretty much paid till death and then with the remainder be more aggressive in investing or spending worry free,
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    My parents bought LTC insurance that reimbursed my mother about $45,000 for the last year in Assisted living ( not a nursing home or SNF) at a max $108 a day out of a total allowable benefit of $130,000.
    I don't know when they purchased the policy so I do not know how much it cost, but is was more than $45,000, and if that money had been in the SP500 would have accumulated far more than $130,000. I am sure they started the policy in the 1990's, so they paid on it for over 25 years.
    I think there are two lessons
    1) one of the reasons her LTC costs were so low was she lived in Texas, where the Assisted Living was "only" $4500 a month. IT was a high quality well run institution. If she had been in CT where we lived it would have been up to $10,000. Most of this is due to lower labor costs and much less regulation. SNF is far higher.
    This would seem to recommend moving to Texas, but while I have not checked into it, Title 19 in Texas likely does not cover much in LTC, as it covers very little anything else.
    In CT ( once you have exhausted all your money) the state will pay for your nursing home (only skilled nursing, not Assisted Living)
    2) either way if your family can't keep you at home it is very expensive.
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    Nocera (following Greenberg) has been muddying the water b/w shorting, even aggressive and disinformation-spreading shorting, and naked shorting (increasing the float) for many years now, building strawmen, blaming the victim, building defenses upon the low or zero effect of the wrongdoing. (Remember, thieves are a helpful reminder to lock our doors; we're all safer for it. A company so thoroughly crappy deserves to go down; if it was truly valuable someone would buy it and stop the shorting; studies show even naked shorting has no effect.' Etc.)
    But naked shorting is shorting more shares than there are in a company, and is unlawful. Weakly enforced, if at all. With it the stock volume can be larger than the tradable shares in the market. Does that sound like a good idea, or just the side of an argument, to be able to do this w impunity?
    For those into detail:
    https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=748001100113103125085064113123017030099042041058020023102082095068097107009022099065019107039057114029060023093091020114126106017070064086060028019031087094093094092088029095069067091094112081087093125081004003029075068094015106072026009099026083005083&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE
    No one is going to read all that but the conclusion (the second one), about SEC overhaul and aggressiveness, is altogether warranted.
    http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/55474/1/WRAP_Raman_1173295-wbs-100713-nss_jfe_2011_784_resubmission_20121224_revised_manuscript.pdf
    This is thorough and does find delivery fails did not play a part in price declines in '08.
    These could be superseded, but I could not find updates.
    State of play, at least by the date:
    https://www.natlawreview.com/article/sec-brings-naked-short-selling-case
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    Here's a good video explaining the lawsuit:

    and the actual complaint (courtesy of that video):
    https://www.classaction.org/media/verduce-et-al-v-vanguard-chester-funds-et-al.pdf
    What I was saying above about the actual damages not being as large as claimed is covered in the video starting about 17:15.
    I agree with the video that win or lose, this is a big PR problem for Vanguard. In essence because its defense will likely be in part that on balance, investors were helped - it's just that the institutions (401(k) plans) were helped at the expense of the little guys (retail investors).
    Though that framing isn't exactly objective because who invests in 401(k) plans? Not just CEOs but line workers (and CEOs have private plans that are much more lucrative). Still, it will be difficult for Vanguard to manage what this looks like.
    The complaint seems to be asserting that Vanguard (or any fiduciary) cannot disadvantage anyone even if the overall effect is positive. IMHO that's a losing argument.
    Suppose the situation were somewhat reversed, if instead of supposedly helping the institutions at the expense of the little guy, Vanguard had made a change that significantly helped the little guy while dinging the institutions. Would people be complaining? Yet the same argument would apply.
  • Have you ever wondered?
    Ever wonder what it would be like to live in a world where being secure in your old age wasn’t dependent on complete randomness and luck? Linking retirement to the stock market is a bit like linking it to a roulette wheel.
    +1. MOST people can't even dream of having the sort of modest portfolio I've got. And it's not even my doing: I INHERITED the biggest slice. The rest has been my own decisions about what to do with it all, yes. My in-laws in that shit-hole country overseas go hand-to-mouth. How poor ARE they? When we send boxes of stuff, it includes LAUNDRY DETERGENT. Anyone who needs THAT sent to them is in a bad way. Just like everywhere else, they can't get out of their own way politically----- allowing for corrupt assholes to run the country. And part of that picture is the CULTURE, too. As long as things just don't move without a bit of bribery here and a bit of bribery there, nothing will ever change. To say nothing of the fact that (very much like HERE) very few have an inkling about how to grow their money and invest.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Tiny ETF PVI is run like an ultra-short muni, so may be a cash-proxy. Nominal yield is 0%, 30-day SEC yield is negative, 52-wk range 24.81-24.94.
  • Hold On or Move On
    @Starchild : “I posted a pissed off thread about MGGPX recently, but held on. Good thing I did.” < — you are saying that you are glad you held on to MGGPX?
    It’s down 18% YTD, may I ask why? Asking as I still own some and am wondering why.
  • U.S. inflation rate climbs again to 7.9%, CPI shows / MarketWatch Article
    Ball don't lie...let's stick to reality and not libereral advocacy econo-babble shall we?
    "But lest you doubt that Biden, not Putin, is to blame for the pain at the pump, at used-car lots, at grocery stores, and everywhere else these days, we present four charts below that make it clear that price spirals started long before Russia’s troops moved into Ukraine – and in fact began to accelerate right at the time Biden was signing his “American Rescue Plan” into law."
    "Take a look and judge for yourself whether Biden is being honest about why inflation, which hasn’t been a problem in four decades, is suddenly reaching into Carter-era heights – just as economists such as Summers predicted."
    Stunning how the impact of this administration's poor decisions have impacted many Americans.
    Kind Regards,
    Baseball Fan
    https://issuesinsights.com/2022/03/17/four-charts-prove-biden-is-lying-about-putin-and-inflation/
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    If I’m considering buying something (especially a stock) I don’t mention it. After I’ve owned it a while I might. I mention this only because it makes so damned much sense. Why would anyone (particularly a fund manager) announce to the whole world that he “might be interested” in picking up a particular asset? If anything, it might drive the price up before he buys. Afterwards it’s likely a non-issue.
    I realize my meager buys or sells won’t affect markets. Yet, it just seems like common sense to buy first before saying anything. I think a lot of “talking-up” of certain stocks or sectors goes on on Tout TV by all those “guests.” What good does it do you or me to buy something a fund manager bought a couple months earlier before the price rose 15 or 20%? While I personally think Bill Gross gets dumped on too much, I always thought his frequent stints on CNBC to be a bit disingenuous. Seemed me he’d predict bonds or interest rates to move in exactly opposite the direction he really believed. This allowed him to take the positions he wanted more cheaply after the herd leaned the other way based on his statements.
    “Through the Retail Lens”
    A new tool from JPMorgan allows Wall Street firms to keep an eye on what retail traders are doing, according to a Thursday report from Bloomberg.
    The bank's "Through the Retail Lens" tool launched in September and is now being used by about 30 asset and quant fund managers, Bloomberg reported. The new tool shows retail flows, predicts the next "short-squeeze," and combs through Reddit and Twitter to determine retail traders' sentiment on a stock, the report said.
    A bank representative did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. JPMorgan told Bloomberg that without a keen eye on retail, investors may feel like they're "driving partially blind."

    Source
  • How often do you rebalance?
    @Obserant1, good reminder to check out our library too.
    @yogibb, thank you.
  • How often do you rebalance?
    @Sven,
    I use X-Ray via M* Investment Research Center ¹ provided by my local library.
    I'm able to save X-Ray results and don't have any M* subscriptions.
    ¹ Also allows free access to FundInvestor, ETFInvestor, StockInvestor, and DividendInvestor newsletters.
  • How often do you rebalance?
    @Devo, would you please link your previous article on drawdown? I seem to difficulty locating it.
    @Obserant1, are you subscribing to M* in order to have access to their X-ray tool ? T. Rowe Price is now enable this tool when the investors reach certain level, and I do not qualify that at this moment.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Basically, yes. Banks can raise lending rates and regional banks benefit from higher mortgage rates in today’s housing market.
    Two ETFs were mentioned by Ms. Mack on energy: Energy Select Sector SPDR, XLE and Vanguard Energy, VDE.
    Energy is the best performing sector this year. The above ETFs are volatile as well.
    The other interview from Jeffery Schulze is also quite informative on inflation when he compares Fed chairman Powell to Volker. Schulze doesn’t see a rate hike-induced recession based on the 12 economic indicators that Clear Bridge uses.
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    Thanks @ Derf, I didn't even know there was an option for the average investor to redeem MF into appreciated shares. Can an average investor do this?
    -----
    Derf
    March 18 Flag
    Thanks @Devo : If you reached your limit on articles , then try here :: https://www.investopedia.com/how-vanguard-patented-a-system-to-avoid-taxes-in-mutual-funds-4686985
    So with that read, should or could the "average" investor try to do the trade of MF's to appreciated stock while doing a redemption ? A step up in bias sounds good to me if the proceeds are to be passed on ! Granted the stock could go down in price before one gets to pass it on.
  • How often do you rebalance?
    My MFO article on Drawdowns exactly talks about all these issues. I do hope you get a chance to read it. My experience is that rebalancing is a 2-step practice.
    The 1st thing I find is Slippage away from core positions into tertiary positions. This might be if I thought of Stock picking or market timing. To me, this is actually a more worthwhile rebalancing to do because most of the time when I compare vs the index my stock selections or over/underweighting, I find I would have been better off sticking to the core views. This requires have a pre-set view on what the core asset class index is in each asset.
    The 2nd is the under/over weight. I find that as all risky assets have become correlated (international, em, RE, US), I tend to rebalance less internally across risk assets and allow momentum to express over/under weights until it just becomes too extreme. Right now EM assets seem extreme is an example and a motivator to shift out of US into EM by 1-2% max.
    Shifting between Risky and Riskless is harder because the Riskless has also been RIsky this year. Neverthless, now I feel we are at a point where a downward risk to growth could actually move bonds up in price. I have been more focused on adding to Bonds from US Eq.
  • Michael F Price, RIP
    So sad to read of his passing. I also want to send my deepest heart felt condolences to his family.
    He died way too soon, at only 70.
    I too bought Mutual Shares as my first mutual fund in 1989 ( or before, but that is as far back as my available records go!) after reading everything I could find about him and his ideas about value investing. Over the years we put more and more in until it was my biggest position, with Mutual Discovery a close second.
    When he sold the firm, I wrote him a long letter, thanking him for putting up such good returns, but also for teaching me about investing and the difference between the value of a company and the price of it's stock.
    I can't think of any other well known investor, other than perhaps Buffett, who had a greater impact on my investment ideas ( or on our net worth!).