David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff I like to track DODBX, instead. Balanced. Stocks AND bonds. My numbers are from Morningstar. It sits today at 80th percentile among peers. But in real terms, down for 2020 now by just -3.77%. Given the recent uptrend, I'd say it will climb out and produce profit, as well as yield: currently at 2.57%. Looking at percentile rankings going back several, maybe a handful of years, there are some years where it underperformed peers, but most years are good to excellent. It is less consistently wonderful than PRWCX, but PRWCX is still CLOSED.
Back in 2010, reorienting a friend (and wife's) money, my intent was to spread the money out, to diversify. So, they own both DODBX and PRWCX, still, 10 years on. I guess you just can't have EVERYTHING. Life is like that. And, like me, they are investors, not traders. Trading just seems too much like real WORK!
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS! OMG, the lib media is in shock, they expected at least 7 million job losses and they got +2.5 million gain. The 2.5 million came without help from NY+CA which are still shut down.
It's terrible for them but good for America.
Then came their usual, it's a lie, it's meaningless, it's only low paying jobs why cheer.
When unemployment was the lowest ever (for many categories) months ago even then they didn't cheer. It's so ridiculous.
Wait, social distancing? no more. Let's march together, burn and loot our cities, and defund the police.
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. @msf Thanks for the added details. The size of the "errors" for April and May appear to be similar to the size of the total monthly unemployment rates for many preceding individual months (how the world has changed!). This article was the first I noticed to point them out. It seems odd the BLS did not more prominently make reference to them at the beginning of their monthly News Releases given their magnitudes. That likely would have provided a clearer picture of the current unemployment situation. (The note referenced in the Washington Post article is located near the bottom of page 6 of the BLM's June
5 News Release.)
https://bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Fidelity offers ETF trades in dollars (instead of shares) I finally tried this out a week ago. A nuisance to trade on a mobile device (the only platform Fidelity supports for fractional shares). But since I had already loaded the application to deposit the infrequent paper check, it wasn't that a big deal.
No problem, very smooth operation. I used it to buy a cash substitute ETF in an IRA. That seems like an ideal use of this feature, since cash is tracked in dollars and cents.
It worked slightly differently from the way one would by an OEF. When one buys an OEF by dollar amount, one gets a certain number of shares (calculated to three places). No cash remains in the account, even if the number of shares purchased are worth a penny or two less that the size of your order.
With my ETF purchase, the number of shares was also calculated out to three decimal places. But I was left with 2¢ cash in my account.
Schwab finally followed through with its earlier announcement of fractional shares. Seeing that it doesn't handle ETFs, it doesn't handle stocks outside of the S&P
500, and it doesn't handle amounts under $
5, it really is a day late and a dollar short.
https://www.schwab.com/fractional-shares-stock-slices/gift
With Rates So Low, Income Investors Need to Rethink Bonds
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS! OMG, the lib media is in shock, they expected at least 7 million job losses and they got +2.5 million gain. The 2.5 million came without help from NY+CA which are still shut down.
It's terrible for them but good for America.
Then came their usual, it's a lie, it's meaningless, it's only low paying jobs why cheer.
When unemployment was the lowest ever (for many categories) months ago even then they didn't cheer. It's so ridiculous.
Wait, social distancing? no more. Let's march together, burn and loot our cities, and defund the police.
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS! See my comment
here.
How do we know the published job numbers are not fabricated?
It appeared there is a miscalculation from BLS, and the actual number reported is 3% higher than that of April number. Taken that in its totality, the employment picture is not so rosy as the president announced...
The special note said that if this misclassification error had not occurred, the "overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported," meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
As I noted in my linked-to post, correcting for the same type errors in April makes the reduction in the unemployment rate even larger. It goes from the official 1.4% improvement to 3.4%. Though total unemployment is, of course, higher than officially reported for
both months. So while the absolute number is not so rosy as the president announced, the trend surpassed the president's rosy picture.
@davidrmoran addressed Shadow's question. But then again, so did Heather Long's article:
“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”
As a special added bonus, note that PK is also on record as having made the same statement. (In the words of Warner Wolf, let's
go to the videotape. Check the 37 minute mark. "I'm mostly on the side of fast recovery ... IF the coronavirus is under control.")
David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff @FD1000: "...D&C is [one of the worst managers of all time]...". Oh my goodness. Really; what does one do with that?
I meant to say below average. EXample: DODGX trail the "stupid" index SPY for performance + risk attributes. See the (
proof)
Please don't come back and claim it's not fair because DODGX is more value while SPY is blend. The goal is to make money and if your fund has worse performance + SD,Sharpe,Sortino it's a knockout. You can'y hide behind "VALUE" for years. Recent performance is another proof. YTD...DODGX -7.8...SPY -0.2%
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Why all the agitation over BLS misclassification errors
this month, when similar ones last month were arguably worse? Something that
@Rbrt pointed out.
Actually, if both April and May numbers were adjusted as suggested (to 19.7% unemployment in April and 16.3% in May) the reduction in unemployment, such as it is, would be 3.4%, far better than the official 1.4% reduction.
The flaw in the April figures was obvious; one didn't need the BLS or reporters to it. The number of people in the labor force (i.e. employed or unemployed) does not drop from 162.9M in March to 1
56.
5M in April, unless a lot of the newly unemployed are being counted as no longer in the labor force.
Here are the BLS figures; read from them what you will:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm Forbes, May 10, 2020,
Don’t Be Fooled By Official Unemployment Rate Of 14.7%; The Real Figure Is Even Scarier“Interviewers were told to classify people who were employed [but] absent from work due to COVID-related reasons as temporarily unemployed. Many did this incorrectly —correcting for this error raises the unemployment rate to nearly 20%,” [Betsey Stevenson] explained. [Ms. Stevenson "was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers as well as the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor".]
To its credit, the BLS realized and called out this technical misclassification in its report ... The misclassification caused the BLS to understate the unemployment rate by roughly five percentage points, meaning the adjusted unemployment rate is really closer to 20%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/05/10/dont-be-fooled-by-official-unemployment-rate-of-147-the-real-figure-is-even-scarier/#3aa898c055dd
Fidelity Throws Heft Into Hidden-Asset ETF Arena With New Funds
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. My apologies .
Imho I think present and past POTUS opinions and voting records are so strong /skewed and seem >50% favored one sided; the other side definitely think 'dictatorships' but in reality they only vote/do what best for their party (except for Trump maybe)...
Strong opinionated maybe corrected term...
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack June 6th Episode:
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. From the article (the gains, due to reopening still stand but that in addition to the May number being wrong the March and April unemployment rates were also underreported)
“ This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.”.
I want to see what this does to number of jobs which is currently reported at around 133,000,000.
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.
The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.
https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! From the same source, stockchart, I think this(
link) maybe be easier but only allows
5 funds. The easy part is by letting you select the period easily. You have one month and all the way using start/end dates.
The best IMO is PortfolioVis. It has many more choices and you can see SD, max draw, Sharpe, Sortino and more but allow you only 4 funds. See (
link) for BBN,GWMEX,TSIIX,ANBEX for 3 years. It shows how BBN SD=12 is 2-3 times higher than the others
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS! I guess we’re playing with semantics here.
“Fabricated” =
“completely made up. An investigation will follow.” Geez, I don’t think so.
We had one last winter. You saw where that went.
“Cooked” =
“distorted, exaggerated, shaded, tilted, incomplete, compromised and unreliable.” Yes. The government’s been doing that for years with the numbers.
Cost of living is a great example.
Whether you believe the numbers or consider them wholly fabricated, the S&P is now up over
40% since late March. So the numbers today helped put $$ In the pockets of investors. The numbers might be as phony as a $1,000 bill. But if you pass a phony $1,000 bill and get away with it (putting morals aside), you still keep the goodies.
May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
(RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds Not sure how much you are expecting to earn from your bond funds. This year I've finally decided to throw in the towel. I never invested in bond funds that much outright. I trusted few managers to do it for now. I diversified, I did all that crap, and then I'm convinced they are no better than active stock managers.
Vanguard has been a real PITA to get approval to sell options. Once I get that taken care off, I plan to roll out a CD ladder of options, one expiring per week, 4 outstanding at any time, i.e. hoping to get option income from 4 options per month at different strikes and different expiry dates further OTM.
If I succeed, I can make proclamations like "Don't invest in what you don't understand". Yes, I don't undertstand bonds. Yes, I understand options. And I know every week what's going on and how to adjust and protect my principal instead of buying and hoping bond fund will give me 5% return on annual basis.
David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff IMO, market moved up too far. too fast I don't really care. It seems like dot com days. You can fart in a bottle, hold it up and say "cloud" and your stock goes up. Meanwhile, I read this.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-06-05/nfp-jobs-data-manipulated-all-paid-ppp-loansI've been earning good income on options for 2 months. I'm worried I'm getting addicted to it. I think I can make 10-12% this way, so I'm not rushing in and buying any more funds at this time. I own PRWCX and RPGAX in my MIL's account and am happy with both of them. If GMO is to be believed, then RPGAX should catch up with its higher allocation to international holdings.
