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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    (1) Value investing had a poor year in ‘18, following a long period of underperformance. Beginning to look as though that may have been the “blow off” stage of the value cycle as they’re hot so far this year. To some extent in ‘18 you were better off putting on a blindfold and buying indexes than in evaluating companies. To the extent Price favors a value approach and does a lot of due diligence, having done their homework may have hurt their numbers in ‘18.
    (2) Another factor - Price tends to be more aggressive with their significant number of allocation funds than others. RPSIX, for example, can hold around 10% in PRFDX (a stock fund). If you compare RPSIX to less aggressive “income” funds during a down year for equities it will lag. Their retirement funds are also known for having glide slopes that keep investors in equities further out than many others. More equities in a down year spells lower return.
    (3) Price includes a bit of PRAFX (real assets) in many allocation funds. In fact, PRAFX was first developed for in-house use in their allocation funds and than later offered to the public. Commodities, energy, & real estate were poor places to be in ‘18. However, if this year’s trend continues it will pay investors in real assets for their patience.
    At first I couldn’t see commenting on this one. A single year says very little about the quality of a firm. Since some have found it worthwhile, I wanted to add my 2-cents. All that being said, I do like to diversify management risk. As now stands, Price has about 50% with the other 50% divided up among Dodge & Cox, Oppenheimer, and Permenant Portfolio. I’m much more accustomed to fending off criticism of the latter two (especially PRPFX) than I am of T. Rowe. Some day I may have 100% with Price for ease of managing my assets and because of their great customer service.
  • Templeton Bond Chief Stands Firm On Bearish Bet Against Treasuries: (TPINX)
    FYI: One of the biggest contrarians in the bond market is holding firm to a long-held wager that Treasury yields are poised to break out even as global growth fears turbocharge the opposing side of the trade.
    Franklin Templeton bond chief Michael Hasenstab remains steadfast in his conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year -- putting him at odds with the futures market and the growing raft of Wall Street voices fretting a brewing U.S. downturn.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/templeton-bond-chief-stands-firm-on-bearish-bet-against-treasuries-43419.html?print
    M* Snapshot TPINX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TPINX/quote.html
    Lipper Snpshot TPINX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tpinx
    TPINX Is Ranked #15 In The (WB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-bond/templeton-global-bond-fund/tpinx
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    Keep reading ... on down and through ... to you come to the part on ETF Wrap.
    Breaking Down Wrap Fee
    Wrap fees are generally set up to be a percentage of the assets under management and can cover both retirement and non-retirement assets. The wrap fee is intended to provide payment for all the direct services the customer receives, as well as cover the administrative costs incurred by the investment firm, which tend to be a full-service brokerage or affiliated or unaffiliated broker/dealer firms. One advantage of a wrap fee is that a customer can be assured that a broker isn't trying to excessively churn trades to generate commissions. Wrap fee accounts are expected to more than double to $1.1 trillion in the next five years, according to Tiburon Strategic Advisors.
    Wrap Fee Criticisms
    Wrap fees can be expensive. They can range from around 0.75% to as high as 3%. And certain actions could incur other fees, such as if a broker for a wrap fee client were to purchase a mutual fund that charges an expense ratio. Such high fees can quickly erode returns. Accordingly, wrap fee arrangements have attracted a greater level of scrutiny from regulators as of late.
    Wrap fee programs can have a variety of names, such as asset allocation programs, investment management programs, asset management programs, separately managed accounts and mini-accounts. Whatever the name, such an account can be subject to additional disclosure under Rule 204-3(f) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. That rule defines a wrap fee as a “program under which any client is charged a specified fee or fees not based directly on transactions in a client’s account for investment advisory services (which may include portfolio management or advice concerning the selection of other advisers) and execution of client transactions.” In December 2017, the Securities and Exchange Commission released an Investor Bulletin that provides basic information about wrap fee programs and some questions to consider asking an investment advisor before choosing to open an account in a wrap fee program.
    Who Is A Wrap Fee Right For?
    Paying a wrap fee can be advantageous for investors who intend to utilize their broker's full line of services. For anyone else, it might be cheaper to pay an investment professional for individual services in an unbundled arrangement.
    Compare Popular Online Brokers
    Provider
    Name
    Description
    Advertiser Disclosure
    Related Terms
    ETF Wrap
    An ETF wrap is an investment portfolio in which an investor, with or without the aid of an investment advisor, invests solely in exchange-traded funds. more
    Fulcrum Fee
    A fulcrum fee is a performance-based fee that adjusts up or down based on outperforming or underperforming a benchmark. more
    Agency Cross
    An agency cross is a transaction in which an investment adviser acts as the broker for both his client and the other party to the transaction. more
    Performance Fee
    A performance fee is a payment made to an investment manager for generating positive returns. more
    Double Dipping
    Double dipping is when a broker puts commissioned products into a fee-based account thereby unethically earning money from both sources. more
    Soft Commissions
    A soft commission, or soft dollars, is a transaction-based payment made by an asset manager to a broker-dealer that is not paid in actual dollars. more
  • Only Five T. Rowe Price U.S. Mutual Funds Saw Positive Returns In 2018
    FYI: A number of T. Rowe Price Group Inc. mutual funds beat the S&P 500 index during a tough 2018 for the U.S. stock market, but only five provided investors with positive returns.
    The total is less than half the number of portfolio managers who beat the index last year. Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price's funds, and the stock market overall, were hit hard by the stock market's dramatic plunge in December.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2019/02/20/only-five-t-rowe-price-u-s-mutual-funds-saw.html
  • USCF Commodity Strategy Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689322/000117120019000065/i19086_mft-497.htm
    497 1 i19086_mft-497.htm
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Securities Act File No. 333-214468
    Investment Company Act File No. 811-23213
    USCF Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
    USCF Commodity Strategy Fund (the “Fund”)
    Class A Shares (USCFX)
    and
    Class I Shares (USCIX)
    Supplement dated February 21, 2019 to the Prospectus for the Fund dated October 30, 2018. This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus. Please review this supplement carefully.
    After careful consideration, USCF Advisers, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation. Shareholder approval of the Plan of Liquidation is not required.
    Pursuant to the Plan of Liquidation, the last day on which orders will be accepted for the sale of Fund shares will be February 22, 2019. Shareholders may continue to redeem shares of the Fund as described in the Prospectus until the Fund has been liquidated.
    The Fund will liquidate on or around March 21, 2019 (the “Liquidation Date”). In connection with the liquidation and termination of the Fund, the Fund’s wholly-owned subsidiary incorporated in the Cayman Islands shall also be liquidated in a manner necessary to effectuate the Fund’s Plan of Liquidation.
    On or about March 14, 2019, the Fund will begin converting its portfolio assets to cash and cash equivalents. This will cause the Fund to increase its cash and cash equivalent holdings and deviate from its investment objective and principal investment strategies stated in the Prospectus.
    On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute its holdings pro rata to all remaining shareholders of the Fund. These distributions are taxable events for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. In addition, these payments will include accrued capital gains and dividends, if any. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. As calculated on the Liquidation Date, the Fund's net asset value will reflect the costs of liquidating the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    If you would like additional information, please contact Shareholder Services at 1-844-312-2114.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Warren Buffett Can’t Find Anything Big To Buy
    FYI: Warren Buffett is always on the hunt for “elephants,” as he calls large acquisitions. But three years have passed since he bagged a new one.
    One reason: The Omaha, Neb., billionaire faces unprecedented competition from private equity and other funds looking to make fast acquisitions, often at higher prices than Mr. Buffett is willing to pay. His last major deal, the $32 billion purchase of aerospace manufacturer Precision Castparts Corp., closed in January 2016.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-cant-find-anything-big-to-buy-11550745001?mod=hp_lead_pos5
  • Western Asset Short Term Yield Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764624/000119312519046170/d706429d497.htm
    (LGSYX, WTYIX, LGSTX affected)
    497 1 d706429d497.htm WESTERN ASSET SHORT TERM YIELD FUND
    LOGO
    LEGG MASON PARTNERS INCOME TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 21, 2019
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS
    AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, EACH DATED
    NOVEMBER 30, 2018, OF
    WESTERN ASSET SHORT TERM YIELD FUND (THE “FUND”)
    The following language is added to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information:
    The Fund’s Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to terminate and wind up the Fund. The Fund is expected to cease operations on or about March 29, 2019. In preparation for the termination of the Fund, and at the discretion of the Fund manager, the assets of the Fund will be liquidated and the Fund will cease to pursue its investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund who elect to redeem their shares prior to the completion of the liquidation will be redeemed in the ordinary course at the Fund’s net asset value per share. Each shareholder who remains in the Fund will receive a liquidating distribution equal to the aggregate net asset value of the shares of the Fund that such shareholder then holds.
    In the interim, effective February 22, 2019, the Fund will be closed to new purchases and incoming exchanges, except that dividend reinvestment will continue until the Fund is terminated.
    Shareholders are encouraged to consider options that may be suitable for the reinvestment of their liquidation proceeds. Shareholders subject to federal income tax should be aware that an exchange or redemption of Fund shares or the receipt of distributions or liquidation proceeds is generally considered a taxable event.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    WASX504764
  • CAPE Fear: The Bulls Are Wrong. Shiller's Measure Is the Real Deal
    Generally, I'm at 10-15% in stocks but I can be up to 30-40% in certain times for several days. This can happen when SPY goes down and rebound, I watch the MACD, it has to go to negative(around -50) and rebound, I buy on the first positive day and sell after several days, it has a very high success rate(chart).
  • A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warn FA manager
    Heartland Advisors isn't quite the place I'd go for insight into the bond market. Remember that Will's dad (William J. Nasgovitz), CEO and controlling shareholder at the time, settled with the SEC for mispricing two muni bond funds. As a result of the mispricing, the funds' NAVs dropped by 69.4% and 44% in a single day.
    https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
    https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/23/business/sec-freezes-the-assets-of-three-heartland-funds.html
    Some corporations have their act together a bit better than Heartland (which got out of the bond fund business around 2003). Here's S&P's report from six months ago entitled U.S. Refinancing Study--$4.88 Trillion Of Rated Corporate Debt Is Scheduled To Mature Through 2023
    https://www.allnews.ch/sites/default/files/files/20180822_SP_US-Refinancing-Study-Rated-Corporate-Debt.pdf
    Maturities are set to rise above $1 trillion annually in 2021 and 2022, up from $721 billion in 2019. While this is a substantial amount of debt, credit markets in the U.S. have shown sufficient depth and demand for corporate credit to facilitate companies' issuance of new debt to manage pending maturities. ...
    While the maturity wall steepens as debt mounts in 2021 and 2022, we expect that companies will issue new debt between now and then, and that the amount of debt maturing in those years will decline in the intervening years.
    It's a solid 17 page report, covering different grades of bonds, financial and non-financial corporate. If the subject is of interest, this is a good place to start.
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    X-Ray at M* tells me I'm down to 3.55% of portf. in EM, worldwide. In retirement-mode, I don't need the extra volatility. A while ago, I thought about PRIJX but never pulled the trigger. Just as well. Today, I see it's up, YTD by 8.37..... My PRWCX is up by 8.86. I know the EM can run hot and cold, in streaks. The whole portf. is now just 34% in equities. PRWCX is my biggest chunk, at 32% of portf. And 5% cash, 2% "other."
    PRIDX gives me almost all of my international & EM exposure.
    X-Ray says:
    full portf. carries Asia EM 2.47 of total.
    ...And what about "Australasia?" Is that Oz plus NZ plus out of the way places like The Maldives and the Solomons and the Marshall Islands, or what? (0.62% there.)
    Africa/M.E =0.19%
    Europe EM = 0.
    LatAm =0.89%.
    Ethical filters as well as portf. protection will keep me much more Stateside, from now on, though I still want just one finger in the EM pie.
    ...Although, judging from the ones in the seats of power these days, "ethics" is a thing they are unaware of. But what are ya gonna do. Untrammeled capitalism is the only game in town. Until Leadership grows or re-grows a conscience. ("Can you say, 'con-science,' boys and girls? I KNEW you COULD," said Mr. Rogers, in his trademark creepy voice, from the grave.)
    BONDS are in PTIAX and the lion's share is in PRSNX. ALL bonds in portf. these days = 59% of total.
  • Stash your cash in bond ETFs
    https://moneyweek.com/502035/stash-your-cash-in-bond-etfs/
    A savings account isn’t always practical. Here’s what to do with the cash in your portfolio.
  • My retirement portfolio
    Also agree, with a couple of interrelated comments.
    You have virtually no foreign securities (3%). Certainly Buffett and Bogle would applaud this; others (myself included) would differ. Regardless, if that's your intent, then why bother with VSMGX? Like VBIAX, it's 60/40, the main difference being that 40% of its equity if foreign.
    Personally, I'm a fan of VWIAX and so agree that this would be a good fund to use to consolidate all your balanced (allocation) holdings. You could then use one or two (if you want some foreign exposure) equity funds to boost your long term returns.
    Dividend appreciation (VDADX /VIG) doesn't mean high dividends. It's just a particular strategy for selecting equities. Right now, its 30 day SEC yield is 2.02%, which is less than VFIAX's 2.05%. And it has 5x the turnover.
    (If you're seeking high dividend yield, there's VHYAX /VYM, though that invests in a narrower, value-oriented slice of the market.)
    My own view (YMMV) is that for long term investing, I'm not going to bet on any particular strategy. I would just buy the whole market and be done with it: VTSAX (or VTI if you really insist on a fund's ETF share class).
    For another perspective, here's M*s latest column on Vanguard 3-bucket portfolios:
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/882670/how-our-vanguard-model-bucket-portfolios-have-perf.html
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    Umm ... Lot to chew on. My only EM is a 5-6% hold on an EM bond fund - a dollar hedged one at that (which curbs some risk). It should amp-up my fixed income return a bit over time. But I suppose a good junk bond fund might add some similar bang to one’s fixed income. How much bang do you want or need in fixed?
    Like JoJo said, EMs are very volatile - more so on the equity side. So my first question is Who needs the pain?. International / global equity funds can and do hold EM and can be pretty volatile themselves. So why ramp it up further if you don’t need to? Many international funds fell 50% from late ‘07 until early ‘09. I don’t even want to look how EM fared. But couldn’t have been any better.
    My second question is which “emerging market”? They‘re literally all over the planet. Do you mean The Middle East - a region where you can walk into an Embassy and be carried out in a suitcase? Brazil - where the new guy is lowering the hammer on the gay transgender community and otherwise usurping individual freedoms? Africa? China? North or South Korea? Russia?
    So it seems to me an intelligent conversation about whether or not to own EM might begin with what part of the world and why. Often some areas prosper while others falter. Back in my early investing days EM was pretty synonymous with raw materials / natural resources, So there was often an indirect play there. That’s still the case with some, like Venezuela, but it’s becoming more the exception today as manufacturing has taken hold in many EM regions that may lack natural resources. I do like international stock and bond funds because they provides a counterweight to the U.S. dollar should it falter. But I’m not so sure you have to play in EM to gain that advantage.
  • My retirement portfolio
    v conservative and bond-heavy, won't hit 3% but of course you can also draw on principal depending on age and cashflow need and SS and maybe taxes.
    I myself, and many others, would seriously suggest you consolidate and downsize, say everything into VWIAX or everything into VBIAX depending on the preceding variables, or 50-50 into each.
  • My retirement portfolio
    Hi @Ken: I see that you are a relative new poster on the board. With this, I say welcome.
    In review of the funds you have listed I am finding that only one has better than the 3% yield goal that you seek for your portfolio. This fund is VWIAX which has a yield of 3.14% according to Morningstar. So, working within the confines of what your have and if you are ok with putting most all of your eggs in one basket, so to speak, then you can get there through putting 96% into VWIAX along with keeping some cash with 4% going into VMMXX.
    This asset allocation bubbles in Xray at 5% cash, 60% bonds and 35% stocks; and, it has a yield of 3.02%.
    Perhaps some other members might know of some other Vanguard funds that you might consider switching into that will help you to better achieve your portfolio's 3% yield goal.
    Old_Skeet
  • My retirement portfolio
    I am retiring in May. Can you give your opinion on my portfolio. I am trying for a 3% yield. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
    Thanks,
    Ken
    Vanguard Balanced Index Adm VBIAX 7.75
    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF VIG 34.02
    Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Gr Inv VSMGX 7.36
    Vanguard Prime Money Market Investor VMMXX 7.54
    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Adm VBIRX 6.72
    Vanguard Shrt-Term Infl-Prot Sec Idx Adm VTAPX 5.96
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Adm VBTLX 6.59
    Vanguard Wellesley® Income Admiral™ VWIAX 24.06
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.
    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?
    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee
    % all depends on where you're at in your life. Early savers could be upwards of 10%+ of equities.
    What's so great about NEWFX and DWGAX? I don't get everybody's infatuation with American Funds......
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.
    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?
    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee
  • M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets
    FYI: Worries about trade wars and decelerating global growth in 2018 left their imprint on developing economies and the funds that invest in them. Between Jan. 29 and Oct. 29, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost a fourth of its value, peak to trough. Popular Chinese stocks like Tencent and Alibaba (BABA) helped lead the race to bottom. While the months of November and December brought somewhat of a reprieve, the typical diversified emerging-markets Morningstar Category fund shed 16.1% in 2018. Investors who had the temerity to increase their exposure to emerging markets during the last bear market ended on Jan. 21, 2016, reaped a handsome reward as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index almost doubled prior to its 2018 downturn. Here are a few ideas for betting on another rebound.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/913835/time-to-buy-emerging-markets.html