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I wonder if journalists said the same thing about Social Security before it existed. All the Freedom Dividend is is Social Security for everyone. Indeed, for Americans over 65 the Freedom Dividend already exists.Americans are no more likely to collect the “Freedom Dividend” than they are to win the next Mega Millions lottery jackpot,
Does one really need machine learning to count the number of rolling 20 trading day periods where the market goes up 10% or drops by -5% (drops by a negative amount)? But I digress.Specifically, based on Trefis analysis of many decades of data:
There is overall about 8% chance that S&P 500 will drop by -5% or more, over 20 trading days (roughly a month)
There is ONLY about 1% chance that S&P 500 will rise by 10% or more, over 20 trading days (roughly a month)
There is a saying a carpenter told me about 15 years ago when he was helping my wife and I build our first retirement home. It goes "Its kind of hard saying without really knowing." A decade is a long time. So, that saying pretty well answers Mark Hulbert's question about the single best investment for that period of time. Having said that, I would pick my largest portfolio holding, RPGAX, to answer the question. It has a broad multi-asset mandate, a fair amount of investment flexibility, and a top notch management team. That seems like a good mix for facing all the unknowns a decade's worth of crystal ball gazing brings to mind. Thinking more short term and small scale with a "Its A Low Interest Rate World" frame of reference, I just took a small, speculative nibble at MNR a few days ago.so what is the best plans? buy all these vehicles?
yes, my bad, I shoulda stuck w FRESX onlyOREAX tops FRIFX at: 1, 5 and 10 years (per Lipper). I wasn’t touting the fund, just commenting on the asset class overall. As you might recall, I have no brokerage accounts, Just some money directly with a few houses. Actually, now that Oppenheimer has been taken over by Invesco it appears my investment options have broadened quite a bit.
@davfor - Thanks for the dose of reality. I’d overlooked the nasty 2018 swoon in many markets. Also, I tend to use Price’s TRREX interchangeably with Oppenheimer’s OREAX. Nothing to do with which is better - but dictated more by logistics, since I invest directly with both companies. Looks like on March 6 of this year I shifted 100% from TRREX to OREAX (by moving funds around at each house).@hank You commented...I’ll say I continue to be amazed by the performance of real estate funds. Maintain a small “nibble” in OREAX - and the danged thing is up 19% YTD (20% after today) - following on the heels of several other good years. I keep expecting it to fall off a cliff - but hasn’t yet.
It looks like OREAX lost about 6% in 2018 when there was increased concern about rising interest rates. That concern has faded this year. Maybe REITS will continue to make sense as long as we remain in a low interest rate world.....
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