fyi.. ...
since inception VASIX vs SPY runs 56% of CAGR and 29% of SD. 10/1994. Lo as 16% Equity.
since inception FASIX vs SPY runs 55% of CAGR and 31% of SD. 2/1993. Hi as 25% Equity.
since inception VBMFX/SPY vs SPY runs 60% of CAGR and 28% of SD. 2/1993.
The 60/20 may also be a good trade off depending on market valuations, business cycle and future perceptions of return (or loss). 100% equity portfolio in retirement normally not used.

@stillers, @sma3,
Couple questions for you...
@stillers...I need to read your post carefully as it resonates with me...question if you are ok answering...by chance did you move to a lower tax state when you retired? I'm in a very high tax state but also own a home in a much lower tax state...wife and I are thinking of making the move in the next year or so.
....
Best,
Baseball Fan

No, we did not relocate. We've paid zero FIT/SIT post-retirement due to the structuring of our portfolio (detailed in prior post) since we started investing in 1980. Large part of our investment strategy, thanks to my first boss and investment mentor, has always been that tired, old axiom, "It's not how much you make, it's how much you get to keep." We do however live in a state with highly favorable tax treatment for retirees.

The author's recommendations for the coming year resonate with me.
"Looking back over the past two years, one word comes to mind: extreme.
It’s been a period of extremes in the market and the economy.
Many have benefitted, but we’ve also seen excesses that aren’t necessarily healthy—from the rise in NFTs to the craze in SPACs to the boom in day trading.
That’s why, as you look ahead to the coming year, the theme I recommend is moderation."
Link

A 15-85 or 20-80 stock-bond portfolio is also called parity portfolio that means that the SDs of stock and bond portions are nearly equal.
There are several funds/OEFs that offer this mix - FASIX, VASIX.
Hedge-fund managers may put high leverage on such parity portfolios.
Some may use these as next level of risk up from core bond funds; another way is core-plus. Idea is to add some stocks or HY to core/inv-grade bonds.
There are some multisector and HY bond funds with up to 20% equity, RPSIX (MS), FAGIX (HY).
So, there is something to this 15-20% equity solution.

I enjoy reading the MFO articles. Anybody have thoughts regarding the article mentioning .....a 20% equity portfolio translates into receiving 60% of the returns of an all equity portfolio with about 25% of the volatility? Just a Thinking Fast and Slow type observation....volatility (SD) is a annualized metric that would remain in this case relatively consistent over time around 25% but the 60% yearly returns vs SPY compounded over a 30 year retirement horizon would not be 60% after 30 years. A significant difference in return. IOW's the value one receives from low SD does not compound over time. Although there is value inherent.

@stillers, @sma3,
Couple questions for you...
@stillers...I need to read your post carefully as it resonates with me...question if you are ok answering...by chance did you move to a lower tax state when you retired? I'm in a very high tax state but also own a home in a much lower tax state...wife and I are thinking of making the move in the next year or so. Question for all: Has anyone else moved to lower taxes in retirement? Did it work as planned? Happy with decision?
@sma3...agreed floating rate funds scare me...usually not highest rated bonds....took a real flush in the down draft in 2020.
I too am concerned about the rattling, swift elevator down in the markets...who knows...
Another fund I am dabbling with (and have owned in the past before it stalled out) is PMEFX, Penn Mutual 1847 Income fund. Really like the mgr who used to run Berwyn Income...seems like a fund you might be able to hang onto in "rough waters". I like the fund mgr's poise and thought process in the interviews I've seen him on.
Best,
Baseball Fan

I too am perplexed by positioning in my fixed income sector. I planned for higher interest rates in 2021, and shortened duration. But the shortest stuff JCPB,VUSB, loss money ( although not much, but I would have been better off in cash) and core bond funds relatively crashed TGFNX (-1.5%) SUBFX (-1.2%).
While last year floating rates, junk ( even munis) and preferreds ( and I owned some) were the place to be, I just don't believe they will do well in 2022 unless interest rates collapse, along with the economy
As almost all stock valuations are so high, I am very reluctant to go all in on dividend stocks for my income.
Selected value funds may do less bad, and I am particularly partial to those that do not insist on being fully invested, like PVCMX.
Multi sector income funds like FMSDX may do well be are also at risk.

Will read the article but it is a rather odd title. I was alive in 1970-1981 when the federal funds rate hit what? 12 14%? My first mortgage in 1984 was at 11.5%
Somehow all the humans I knew then seemed pretty ingenuous.

Thanks @hank...great interview.
I have been impressed with FRIFX as a Real Estate Income Fund. This was a favorite of @catch22. FRIFX has has a great 2021 and in terms of Rosenberg call for lowering interest rates I believe it will continue to perform well into his "lowering of interest rate" call.
As for Japan, Matthews (MJFOX) and T Rowe Price (PRJPX) have highly rated Japan funds as well as Hennessy (HJPNX).

+1

Wondering if anyone has experience with the S mode feature (windows 10). I would like to download Firefox and a few other apps that may not be supported by s-mode.
My understanding is if I turn off S-mode I lose that feature. What exactly am I giving up?
Thanks in advance.

LIHKX is US-LC R1000 + foreign-LC, etc
FISPX is US-LC SP500
QASGX is US-SC-gr R2000-gr
So, he may also consider 80% LIHKX, 20% QASGX in the expectation that US-SC are better valued now and may catchup (past is past).

Not a lot of port moves specifically for 2022. We are nearing end of 10th year of retirement. We use 5-yr retirement portfolio strategies and are nearing the end of our 2nd 5-yr plan (June 2022). All major moves towards next 5-yr plan have been gradual/cumulative over past six months or so and will be completed by June.
Core for next five years will consist of 11 AA OEFs (and possibly 1-2 more) that can be detailed here or via PM if anyone is interested. Still reluctantly holding a smaller slug of dedicated bond OEFs (HY Munis, BL, Multi, ST HY), significantly reduced in number and aggregate $ amount from initial 5-yr plan plan. Also initiated much larger explore section during 2nd, 5-yr plan that will carryforward in next one, comprised of a coupla indivdual stocks and a coupla dedicated stock ETFs and OEFs. Former 10-yr CD ladder initiated at start of retirement continues to see final rungs fall off w/o being replaced. Maturing CD proceeds continue to be rolled to much higher risk cats, primarily explore stuff. Keeping an eye on 5-yr CD rates this year as they inch back to levels that may be acceptable replacements for some dedicated bond OEF holdings.
Will continue to make (what are effectively) tax-free IRA w/d's for personal spending wants/needs up to taxable income threshold in lieu of making Roth conversions. Continue to be ~96% under the umbrella (read, in tax-deferred a/c's) and ~4% in taxable. Haven't paid a dime in FIT/SIT since final year of employment in 2012 (state has actually been paying us $50 annually last coupla years via tax credits) and starting to look like that will all continue for at least five more years or until RMDs are um, required. Life-long tax planning strategy has been to Avoid, Defer, Minimize, and pay them on our terms when we want (read, ultimately have) to pay them.
REALLY appreciated the contributions of many of MFO regulars. Keep up the great work and contributions here and Happy New Year to all!

Aside on BLs and hoping to NOT derail very good thread...Noted here and on other MFO threads that posters seem to like PRFRX. It is in my group of about five or so fave OEFs in the cat. Personal faves however are NFRAX, RSFLX, FRFAX and FFRHX. Used to own both NFRAX and RSFLX but in late 2021 rolled all into NFRAX simply for consolidation of BLs and personal preference. FWIW, pretty partial to Nuveen, esp in BLs and HY Munis (NHMAX, NVHAX). Regardless the exact BL fund selected, agree it was a good place to be in 2021, continuing well into 2022 and perhaps beyond, depending on interest rate environment. OOSAX has had its year in the sun in the cat but don't know much about it or if that's sustainable for a previously underperformng fund in the cat. YMMV.

Just executed: took 15% of my bonds and switched them from RPSIX (covers the bond waterfront) to PRFRX (bank loans.)

Advising son age 30 on best long term choices for employer 401K. Choices limited to Blackrock and Federated Hermes. I suggest 50-50 split between Blackrock Lifepath index 2045 (LIHKX) and Federated Hermes Max Cap Index (FISPX) or Federated Hermes MDT Small Cap Growth (QASGX). Seems FISPX has lower expense ratio and better 1/3/5 yr performance so leaning to FISPX for half and LIHKX for half. Thanks.

It's very easy to make predictions.
It's extremely difficult to make ACCURATE and TIMELY predictions, especially for the near-term.[1]
... but unfortunately, the financal infotainment media/punditocracy have very short memories and just need people who clean up nicely for television and/or can issue nifty opinions and pithy nuggets that sound informed which can sell newsletters or advertising time. Ane most average joe/jane investors don't have the wherewithal or awareness to do further research or thinking about such prognostications....and thus trade on emotions and soundbytes, not rationality or a plan.
[1] i.e., being "right but very early" is considered "wrong"

Our KISS of a portfolio ended the year with 80% in PRWCX/TRAIX and 20% in AKREX. So, not a bad year with low to mid 70's exposure to equities by year end.
Our average age is 56 and probably have been on the light side of equities for our age the past 15 years since PRWCX has dominated our investments, but we are okay with that. We'll keep saving, but probably have enough saved for retirement already, just need to keep growing it at a modest rate for the next handful of years. Grateful to be debt free.
Have decided equity exposure is a bit higher than preferred at this point and am in the process of reducing AKREX and moving some of the proceeds into TRAIX and PRFRX for now which is also holding some inheritance monies my wife received recently from her folk's estate. Planning for our equity exposure to be between 65-70% when done rebalancing.

@Newgirl, to clarify my earlier statement, we moved more equity to defensive sectors such as health care and utility. Traditionally, these sectors plus consumer staples are considered defensive while the other sectors are considered cycincal. This is a more of a tactical move to better position our portfolios in 2022. We have done well in 2020 when we bought REIT and energy when they were down over 30% due to the lockdown and they have since fully recovered plus another 30-40% in 2021, Now it is time to rotate to elsewhere.

@Baseball_Fan:
Re FMSDX - Lipper breaks down its holdings this way:
50% Stocks
25% Other
24% Bonds
2% Cash
Would you happen to know what the 25% “other” is invested in? Thanks.

Per Fidelity:
FMSDX
As of 11-30-2021:
Portfolio Weight
Equities ex. Preferred Stock 46.54%
U.S. Treasury & Government Related Securities 17.75%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds 0.24%
Mortgage Backed Securities 0.01%
High-Yield Investments 14.70%
Bank Loans 6.23%
Convertibles 6.78%
Preferred Stock 4.52%
Emerging-Markets Debt 3.26%
Cash & Net Other Assets -0.03%