As a disclaimer, I currently have a very moderate position in COTZX and appreciate the clear mechanics of adjusting to market conditions based on S&P levels. Still, I am challenged to add to it for the following reasons and considering selling it, so maybe someone could talk me off the roof. [...]
Second, six of the funds 13 funds are invested in 1.56% or less. So the impact from these funds is either offset by each, negligible, or cumulatively indexing. [...]
Fourth, the treasury index is a 31.29% holding with a 6.83 duration. Maybe I’m off here but if we’re going into 2022 expecting rate hikes then how will COTZX adjust its bond holdings. [...]
Again I really like the idea behind COTZX but as I’ve looked closer, it may not be for me.

Well said, Level5.
I also like the idea behind COTZX, but for the second and the fourth reason you mentioned, I had decided a while ago against investing in the fund. I also don't particularly like to invest in a fund of other in-house funds, especially, as you pointed out, when "six of the funds 13 funds are invested in 1.56% or less". I prefer that manager(s) go out and select the individual stocks and bonds that are most suitable for the successful implementation of their goals, good examples are the managers of funds like FMSDX and VWINX.
My current choice of an alternative fund is JHQAX. Still quite happy with its risk/reward profile. These three funds, by the way, make up a significant portion of my conservative portfolio.
Good luck,
Fred

Hi guys,
FWIW: As I stated above CTFAX carries a weighting of 12% within my portfolio's income sleeve. I have some other multi-sector income funds held in this sleeve that also holds some equity. The 12% weighting for CTFAX was chosen so that it could weight up to 80% in equity and not throw the sleeve beyond its 15% equity cap. So, for me, it stays within this sleeve even if it sould go equity heavy in a stock market downdraft and load equities thus reducing its allocation to bonds.
Another fund that I like and that I own is CFIAX (Columbia Flexible Capital Income) which is held in my hybrid income sleeve. It sports about a 4% yield.

@BaluBalu - while COTZX is but 10% equity, I like the idea of thinking of it as an enhanced bond fund for now, even though as @lynnbolin2021 and M* point out, it is a tactical fund. This is about as *exotic* (LOL) I get in my investing.

Hi @StayCalm
Fund managers change and so do philosophies. COTZX did not do well in 2009, because it’s strategy was to be 100% stocks or bonds. Since then they have changed their philosophy to make the changes gradually.
It is a solid long term fund.

COTZX has done well over the life of the fund -- 19 years, Sortino=1.14, APR=8.3, Avg 3 Year Rolling APR=7.2 but I personally would not treat this as a bond sub given the max DD of 42.4% in 200902 and an Ulcer of 7.3.
Imo PRWCX has better risk adjusted returns than COTZX (big risk being manager skill of course)
PRWCX stats are -- 35 years, Sortino=1.40, APR=11.7, Avg 3 Year Rolling APR=11.3, Max DD=36.6, Ulcer=5.3
SFHYX stats are
17 years, Sortino=2.08, APR=7.2, Avg 3 Year Rolling APR=6.7, Max DD=16.9, Ulcer=3.5

John Rekenthaler from M* reminisces about the mutual fund industry over the past 33 years.
Random quotes below.
"In 1988, the largest mutual fund was Franklin U.S. Government Securities (FKFSX), which finished the year with $11.7 billion."
"In 1988, three index funds existed: 1) Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX), 2) DFA U.S. Micro Cap (DFSCX), and 3) a brand-new entrant from Fidelity that was eventually merged into the company’s current offering Fidelity 500 Index (FXAIX). (Even that list is suspect, as DFA now states that its funds are actively managed. However, as it called DFA U.S. Micro Cap an index fund at the time, that is where I have placed it.) In aggregate, those funds held $2 billion, making for a market share of slightly under 0.5%."
"Back in the day, investors who emphasized fund expenses were viewed as cranks. Life was too short to worry about a few basis points. In 1993, for example, the five top-selling mutual funds carried average an average expense ratio of 1.09%."
Link

It currently looks like my overall portfolio stock % per Fido will be about 65% after my once a year cash distribution has been completed at the start of 2022 (vs. about 67% in stocks at the start of 2021).
A couple of OEF updates. The Bond sleeve now includes SVARX, RCTIX, PEGAX, and ARTUX (a very new OEF with experienced managers). And, the Mixed Asset #1 portfolio sleeve has been partially updated -- holdings here are selected based on a combination of anticipated overall returns and anticipated volatility during significant market corrections. That sleeve now includes VWINX, BGHIX, PRSIX, and SUNBX (another very new OEF with experienced managers that I'm guessing makes sense to include in this sleeve.)
I don't know if it means anything. But, the total distributions from my OEF holdings were up substantially in 2021 -- perhaps as a result of OEF manager activity this year resulting from a combination of market anxiety and exuberance. The last similar annual uptick in my distributions was in 2007. And, 2008 turned out to be an eventful year!

Hi @MikeM - thanks for your message. What I meant to say, and did so incompletely was that COTZX has these S&P *trigger* points where they will then buy or sell based on how the market shows up. I have my own *trigger* points to buy (from bonds or cash), based on market dips/drops (not as defined as COTZX) and harvest gains (to bonds or cash) when my stock percentage moves beyond a threshold. In my opinion, that’s what COTZX does. The difference is, as @CecilJK noted, it’s automated for you.
If you have a portfolio of $5-10 million (which I do not), a 2% investment still comes out to be a hefty chunk of change ($100 - 200K), though not a big impact overall.
So one question I ask myself is, am I willing to pay the extra *er* fees for a service that I currently enjoy and still think (relatively) competent doing?

@hank, love the balance of forces image. You have some interesting physics concepts gong on there. Takes me back to the many college physics courses I had. I also like your input on TMSRX. I did purchase that fund as a bond alternative but maybe expected more. Maybe expected too much. It's still a keeper for me but I may have over-played the expectation and the amount I allocated to it.
I don't expect to change overall equity percentage much from 2021. My self-managed portfolio has been about 50% equity. I have been adjusting that balancing act though like hank's image. I've had about 30% in 3 balanced funds for years, mostly PRWCX, and plan to stay at that ratio. My biggest change for 2022 will be to go with a higher percentage of alt-funds, 3 of them equally weighted at 8-10% each. They are TMSRX which I've reduced and JHQAX, CTFAX which I have been increasing. The choices we have for alt-funds is of course many, but I think these 3 are all different enough to work well together. All, fingers crossed here, should hedge an equity bear which is my intent. I also have held ETF's, DBC (a commodity basket) and IAU (gold) at about 10% combined as an inflation hedge. I don't plan a change there.
Thanks for starting the post @MikeW. Always interesting to hear others ideas. Good investing to all in 2022.

First, it doesn’t anticipate market moves but responds after the fact - I do that on my own.

@Level5, I would say the fund acts contrary to this statement. Market valuations go up, it sheds equity. Valuations go down it buys. Buy low, sell high. Anticipating the next trend up or down, not reacting to it.

Fourth, the treasury index is a 31.29% holding with a 6.83 duration. Maybe I’m off here but if we’re going into 2022 expecting rate hikes then how will COTZX adjust its bond holdings.

I would also like to hear more about this concern from more knowledgeable bond posters. I would say a 6.8 year duration for treasuries is on the low side and possibly more in the safe range if inflation takes off, but I'm not sure.

Fifth... I think I’d need to be invested much more deeply than I am at present...

I totally agree with that statement if you trust the 'buy low sell high' concept it follows. The previous poster acknowledged he has a 2% stake in the fund (2% of total portfolio), .12 x .18= .02. Owning the fund at that percentage IMHO will result in very little affect on total return, a fraction of a percent maybe. If your reason to own this fund is to dampen the affect of a market drop and take advantage of the subsequent market recovery you need to own a meaningful piece - or why bother.
But as you said, it may not be for you. Good luck with your decision.

@hank: as you know, I let TMSRX go. I just took a look at the fund's allocation stats on M* and I am a bit perplexed. If the PMs are really holding 59% in cash with a 10% short position on US equities, it's no wonder the thing acts like a MMF. They cannot be doing what they did in 2019 and 2020. Thanks for finding that benchmark which helps explain what has been going on.

Hi Level5, In response to your question.
Within my fixed income sleeve CTFAX makes up about 12% of it's investment sleeve which consist of twelve funds. Currently, my fixed income sleeve makes up about 18% of my portfolio.

Copied and pasted from the Big Bang Investing Board.
This briefing is for the week ending December 24, 2021.
The Index Review
For the week the major equity indices finished up as Santa arrives. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +0.15%. the S&P 500 Stock Index rose +1.22%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +3.12%, while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +4.14%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were XLY (Consumer Discretionary) +3.47%, XLK (Technology) +2.56% and XLC (Communication Services) +1.97%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index ETF SPY closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.24% and is up year to date +27.48%; and, it is off its 52 week high by -0.62%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.81% and for the week lost -0.24%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.75% and is off its 52 week high by -3.42%.
Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were GSP (Commodities) +2.69%, IEV (Europe) +1.72% and VTI (US Total Stock Market) +1.71%.
Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were CWB (Convertibles) +2.67%, PFF (Preferreds) +0.62% and HYG (Corporate High Yield) +0.52%.
Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXA (Austialian Dollar) +0.94%, FXB (British Pound) +0.68% and FXF (Swiss Franc) +0.12%.
Old_Skeet's Soap Box ... Since I take all my mutual fund distributions in cash this has now increased the size of my cash area from about 20% to 25% due to strong year end mutual fund distributions received thus far in December. When January arrives I will review my portfolio's asset allocation mix and decide where to invest this recently received cash ... if anywhere. For now ... though ... I sit and I watch. This is mostly due to extended stock and bond market valuations and the current investment climate. One of the hardest things for me to do as a retail investor has been to just (plain old) sit and do nothing. But, I have learned, through the years, that sometimes this turns out to be one of the best things to do. My top producers (this quarter) have come from the growth & income area of my portfolio. Most likely when I start to buy it will be in the G&I area as it holds the value and the equity income parts of my portfolio. However, for now, Old_Skeet is thinking that a stock market swoon is on the horizon. I'm also thinking that a good ten percenter might not be far off. Perhaps so ... Perhaps not. But, when the swoon does come (and in time it will) I will have some extra cash to spend with a buying plan in place.
Again ... for now ... I sit, remaining invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) while I ponder what to do with recently received cash (if anything) which now has me cash heavy by about 5% from my neutral weighting of 20%.. An option ... Short term, I could target cash at 25% and do nothing.
Of Investment Interest
Due to most investment and news sites now requiring sign in passage to read their articles and with it getting harder to find good content that can be linked without sign in requirements the Articles of Investment Interest Area is no more. I am pondering some ideas; but, as I write I have not yet decided what the content will be. This space may become a floating feature area with something of good investment interest posted each week.
For Starters ... This week feature keys on Consuelo Mack's Wealth Track Site
Great Value Investor Bill Miller Discusses His Core Holdings Winners And Recent Promising Additions (Part 1)
https://wealthtrack.com/
Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
SPY Short Volume ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
SPY Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
SPY Yield Chart ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591
SPY Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
SPY T/A Opinion ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
Bond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
AGG Short Volume ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/AGG
AGG Yield Chart ... https://ycharts.com/companies/AGG/dividend_yield
AGG Price Chart (Elder Ray System) ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535
AGG T/A Opinion ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
Wishing You a Christmas Season Filled with Warm Moments and Cherished Memories.
Old_Skeet

Hi Level5, I have held the A share class of the Thermostat Fund for more than ten years and I hold it within my fixed income sleeve since it is currently 90% fixed and 10% equity. I look at it as a risk-off (risk-on) type fund that adjust it's equity holdings based up price/earning metrics for the S&P 500 Index. So, when equities falter and fall in price it automatically loads equities and sells down bonds. Thus, it is designed to play stock market swoons without me having to do much of anything. When it's time to sit (which is hard for many retail investors to do) it plays the bond market. And, when it is time to engage and ramp up equities it plays the stock market. For me, it's a keeper and currently held within the fixed income sleeve of my portfolio.
In review of its performance I am finding that its average total return over the past five years has been better than ten percent. Not bad for a fund that often just sits in risk-off mode.

@hank... “ withdrawals look challenging …”

@bee - Distributions are always a challenge. I attempt to do just 1 every year. But it does require pulling roughly equal amounts (percentage wise) from 4 different sleeves - plus applying the correct % to a number of subsets inside each sleeve. Work it out on paper before I start moving the boulders. :) Sometimes get tripped up by the deferred NTF (60-day) holding period at Fido - one reason I’ve shifted more to ETFs since moving there.
Many here use allocation models - some more complex than mine - so they probably encounter similar issues on withdrawal. FWIW - I actually did the repositioning for 2022 a few months ago - parking that sum in cash inside the tax deferred accounts. So, when the new year arrives, it won’t require any juggling.
PS - To try to remain topical here … my final move for 2021 was to sell a bit less than half of my TMSRX and move that into QED - an ETF that attempts to track an “event-driven” hedge fund index. I had previously stated I’d never sell TMSRX. But after reviewing recent literature at TRP’s website, I became convinced they really do plan simply on besting the return of short term treasury bonds - using a 3-month T-Bill Index as the fund’s benchmark. Knew that all along - but had expected they’d operate the fund a little more aggressively than they appear to be doing. As a substitute for bond holdings, I still see its merit.
TMSRX Benchmark - “ICE Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill Index.”

GLIFX is institutional. Appears to have a low minimum initial investment of $10,000.
GLFOX (open shares) was recommended to me 6-7 months back by a board member. I substituted it in my real assets sleeve for a commodities fund I felt was getting too expensive. Yes - it is largely outside the U.S. That’s one reason I like it, as I’ve been consciously trying to diversify away from U.S. equities.
As the snippet from Lipper shows, the fund has some moderate exposure to the energy sector. As @KHaw24 notes, the Lazard funds are invested largely (about 75%) outside the U.S. So they aren’t the best choice if you’re trying to play the U.S. infrastructure package. Also - higher than normal expenses might deter some.
GLFOX HOLDINGS - Lipper*
46% Utilities
24% Industrials
8% Oil & Gas
22% Remainder
* http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/holdings.asp?YYY622_4YK/sRXYOuCHME0X/pCQzhuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLdjCHFyfBxMJiSgAFiqzNOF

As a disclaimer, I currently have a very moderate position in COTZX and appreciate the clear mechanics of adjusting to market conditions based on S&P levels. Still, I am challenged to add to it for the following reasons and considering selling it, so maybe someone could talk me off the roof.
First, it doesn’t anticipate market moves but responds after the fact - I do that on my own.
Second, six of the funds 13 funds are invested in 1.56% or less. So the impact from these funds is either offset by each, negligible, or cumulatively indexing (I have no issue with indexing. I like index funds for core investing).
Third, don’t know if the er’s are cumulative or only the reported 0.65%
Fourth, the treasury index is a 31.29% holding with a 6.83 duration. Maybe I’m off here but if we’re going into 2022 expecting rate hikes then how will COTZX adjust its bond holdings.
Fifth, if all of my perceived obstacles from the above were removed, I think I’d need to be invested much more deeply than I am at present - but as you could tell, just not ready
Again I really like the idea behind COTZX but as I’ve looked closer, it may not be for me.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1073226/infrastructure-funds-take-their-turn-in-the-spotlight?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_fundspy&utm_content=33453
The differences between GLIFX and PAVE are enough to consider pairing these two to take advantage of the big spend coming our way. Although GLIFX is 75% Non-US currently.

@msf, I was trying to decide which one of this series to buy: Series 2 or 3. Series 1 is closed to new investors. The fund landing page at the bottom says, "if you want an optimal investment experience, select the fund based on when you are ready to invest and purchase shares prior to the reset of the 3-month hedged period." https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/funds/hedged-equity-fund-series/
I charted the three funds in the series starting April 1, 2021 (to give me nine months of data) and I did not observe that dictum play out. I wish I knew how to post a comparative chart here for you to see.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/jheqx/quote
Any thoughts?
Thanks.

Recent activities? I been watching capital gains distributions and its' been a wild ride in the markets as well. I put 10% of my 401k into ASDVX for near term yield instead of earning 'zilch' in a Money Market Fund. Recently purchased TRAIX as part of the new TRP Summit Program...put 10% of my Rollover in that fund. I have added DSCPX to my small cap allocation...
Other moves I'm considering and would like some feedback on...May sell LBSAX and buy SCHD. .90 bps difference in ER and SCHD has beaten LBSAX on YTD, 1, 3, 5, and 10 year time periods. I also like Schwab's new offering, SCHY, because not many investors allocate to Int'l Value or they don't speak about that style often. The style has been challenged long term as has US Value (until recently)