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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    hank: I agree with @stillers that beyond the 3-year threshold DODFX has outperformed DODIX.

    Hank, FWIW, I did NOT say that. I only presented SD data for the 3-yr period, not performance data.
    On cash substitutes, good that you can take the volatility of DODIX as a cash sub. That said, there is a wasteland of 2020 M* forums participants who previously thought that several multi-sector bond funds with high concentrations of securitized holdings were good cash subs. They learned some very hard lessons in Feb-Mar this year.
    It doesn't surprise me that DODFX and DODIX had similar TRs over 10 years. No offense, but DODFX is not a very good FLV fund, while DODIX is a worthy domestic IC+ bond fund.
    Bottom Line: Don't overthink this. You're asking if a mediocre international stock fund is riskier than a domestic IC+ fund. Risk, in its simplest form, is uncertainty concerning loss. SD, while not exactly a measure of that, is a still a worthy measure of it and DODFX's SD is about 5x-6x greater than DODIX's for all prior time frames.
    Granted, the macro outlook sure is pointing to outperformance of international stocks in the coming year(s). Now if I only had a nickel for the multiple times that's been the macro thinking over my 40 years of investing, I'd, well, probably have enough money for something.
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    In its 30+ year history, dating back to 1989, I can find only 5 years when DODIX failed to generate a positive return. In only 1 of those years did its loss exceed 1% (it lost 2.9% in 1994). As a substitute for a money market fund (vs a clone or replica) I can under most circumstances accept that amount of volatility. Others may make their own decisions. Yahoo Performance data: DODIX
    I agree with @stillers that beyond the 3-year threshold DODFX has outperformed DODIX. Yet, according to Lipper, at the 10-year point their annualized returns are nearly identical: DODIX: +4.67% / DODFX: +4.85%
    And I agree that an international stock fund is inherently riskier than a predominately investment grade domestic bond fund. That’s a mathematically provable thesis as well as conventional wisdom. But an individual investor might view risk differently, asking “Which of these choices is more likely to generate gain and less likely to produce a loss over a relatively short near-term period (1-3 years) based on the macro outlook?” I’m suggesting that on the second note the “playing field” is much less uneven now than it has conventionally been. Others are concerned about fixed income as well. David Giroux in his last semi annual report called the investment grade bond market “extremely unattractive and in fact the most unattractive it has been in my whole career.” Capital Appreciation Semi-Annual Report 2020
    Not seeking to answer my own question, but rather to explain why I felt it deserved to be asked. If the question didn’t have at least two sides to it, it wouldn’t be worth asking. And thanks @sillers for your input.
  • Thoughts on DIAL
    @wxman123 - thanks for your thoughts. I’ve been invested in PIMIX for the past 3-years during it’s asset bloated period and investment faux pas (see Argentina). Analysis and opinions from online folks has challenged me to reconsider this position on multiple occasions, even while it manages to surge during the 4th quarter each year. Still, I’ve scaled it back by 50% of my original investment.
    I’ve appreciated DIAL’s rule-based investment theme of maintaining positions in 6 categories:
    - HY Corporates = 30%
    - Emerging Market debt = 20%
    - US MBS = 15%
    - US IG Corporates = 15%
    - US Treas = 10%
    - Global Treas = 10%
    Best to all!
    Brian aka Level5
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    DODFX is an international (LCV) stock fund which is inherently riskier than DODIX, a largely US IC+ bond fund.
    While I don't gauge risk primarily by SD, many do. So here's two little data points that should answer your question (if the first statement didn't);
    Prior 3-yr SD:
    DODFX: 23.55
    DODIX: 3.71
    BTW, DODIX is NOT a cash substitute despite the fact/notion that some D&C investors might use it as such.
  • BAMPX FUND.
    Your work above on CTFAX showed its possible for a F of F's to have 100% TO ratio.
    BAMPX had numerous portfolio changes 3/31/2020 to 9/30/2020 (per annual and semi annual) as did CTFAX. Although the bond/equity allocation of BAMPX remained constant (+/- 5%), many of the the funds within the allocation totally changed. Comparing the two periods....43% of the allocations in the fund were sold and no longer have overlap. iShares Core S&P Total Mkt 16 to 10%, US Total Bond Index Master 13 to 0%, Blackrock Strategic Inc Opp 12 to 18% and 4 other funds went from 3-5% allocations to 0% each. Five new funds were purchased. The changes made were done so within just 6 months. TO ratios are annualized so we may have more changes within the remaining 6 months to get to the 98%. Therefore, I guess its possible for F of F's to reach 100% TO as these two examples indicate.
    Just to clarify... my comment on Money markets was, as I indicated, intended to be separate not related to this matter. I do not want to infer anyone is profiting by trading. In fact, their strategy may be a good thing not a bad thing in my book. Their fund performance will tell the tale over time :) BAMPX looks like a good candidate for my watch list. Thank the author for the heads up.
  • Best Funds To Own In 2021
    @lynnbolin2021

    @MJPete, I have different views set up. Do you have a particular fund family that you are restricted to?
    Hello again, and thank you. I apologize for rambling I'm new to the sight looking to increase my knowledge and technique. I run a loose bucket strategy that I just need to tune up knowing I don't have a lot of down market protection.
    Not as much a fund that I'm restricted to but whatever Pershing has set up, which is inconsistent and has wide variations of fund classes. Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, Franklin incur fees which are manageable with large enough transactions.
    I just spent about two hours scrubbing for class shares of alternates to your list and T.Rowe Price Global Stock is available, though I wish Capital Appreciation was, (but has been closed for some time now. I'm hoping the new management house they just announced will open it (and a few others up in the future)
    The others I am interested in are share classes with $1m-5m min. exchanges, or just as ETF, so not available. I appreciate your offer run a different view.
  • BAMPX FUND.
    CTFAX makes sizeable changes in general, not only relative to the S&P 500. Between its annual report p. 68 (period ending Dec 31, 2019) and its semiannual report p. 43 (period ending June 30, 2020), it decreased its allocation of fixed income funds from 71.1% to 44.2%. It sold off all of its inflation protected securities fund (7.9% of the portfolio), all of its Total Return Bond Fund (about 5% of the portfolio), and decreased its other bond funds by around 5-10% (eyeballing). At the same time it inceased its equity fund holdings from 19.7% to 44.7%, and increased its equity ETF holdings from 5.0% to 7.9%.
    That wasn't just around the S&P 500. It increased its Dividend Income Fund allocation from 2.0% to 4.9%, its Acorn Int'l Fund from 2% to 4.9%, its Acorn Fund from 2% to 5%. You detect a pattern here - outside of large cap funds, it raised its equity fund allocations by 2.5x. But it raised its large cap funds, those closest to the S&P 500, by "only" 2.1x, from 11.8% to 24.9%. And it changed Mid cap fund altogether, swapping out its 2.0% of Acorn Fund for 5.0% of Select Midcap Value.
    That was just in six months. It's not hard to see how this fund could have a 100% turnover just counting the churn of underlying funds.
    The funds mentioned, CTFAX, Blackrock X%/Y% funds invest strictly in house funds (Columbia and Blackrock/iShares respectively), so it's hard to see how the fund companies profit from trading. Certainly one could see them profiting by keeping a higher allocation to cash, just as Schwab makes its money in its managed portfolios by keeping a high cash allocation. But at least for CTFAX, its MMF allocation is under 1%.
  • rphyx Strong Sell 5 = as of 12/15/2020
    Yes, M* has it categorized as a high yield bond fund, but it is not a high yield bond fund.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=rphyx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Here is a 2017 analysis by David concerning the fund:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    Read the paragraph above "Bottom Line" from the link above.
    In addition, you may want to check this link from Mr. Cohanzick's website concerning the funds he oversees. You'll note that Mr. Cohanzick does not classify Riverpark Short Term High Yield Fund as a high yield bond fund.
    https://www.cohanzick.com/strategies
    M* also provides a summary about the fund:
    A unique high-yield offering:
    RiverPark Short Term High Yield stands out from competitors by narrowing its investment menu to corporate credit issues with shortened maturities resulting from a structural change to the underlying businesses.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rphix/quote
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/Data/Sites/17/media/docs/rpsthyf/RiverPark_Short_Term_High_Yield_Fund_Fact_Sheet.pdf
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201013005751/en/RiverPark-Short-Term-High-Yield-Fund-Celebrates-10th-Anniversary---Highest-Sharpe-Ratio
  • BAMPX FUND.
    CTFAX Statement of Additional Information p.102 says under normal conditions the portfolio turnover rate is expected to be below 150%. The past 4 year CTFAX avg has been in the 100% range like BAMPX 98%. CTFAX makes portfolio changes relative to changes in the S&P500. I do not know if small daily adjustments to portfolio allocations within a F of F's would amount to 98% annualized TO rate... but maybe so. I do not know the answer to BAMPX. All of the Blackrock Target Funds 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 and 20/80 have similar TO ratio numbers around 100% in 2020. Separately... I also remember reading somewhere that in some conditions money market instruments purchases may include a profit to the dealer resulting in a TO ratio skew.
  • rphyx Strong Sell 5 = as of 12/15/2020
    Zacks Premium Research for RPHYX
    Zacks MF Rank More Info Strong Sell 5
    MF Research Report
  • VanEck Vectors Coal ETF to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137360/000113736020000525/vvtkol2020liquidations.htm
    (KOL)
    497 1 vvtkol2020liquidations.htm 497E SUPPLEMENT TO PROSPECTUS AND SAI
    SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 3, 2020 TO
    THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2020 AND THE CURRENT STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    OF VANECK VECTORS ETF TRUST DATED NOVEMBER 24, 2020
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the above-dated Summary Prospectus and Prospectus and the current Statement of Additional Information for VanEck Vectors® ETF Trust (the “Trust”) regarding VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust. You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling toll-free1.800.826.2333 or by visiting the VanEck website at www.vaneck.com.
    At a meeting held on December 3, 2020, the Board of Trustees of the Trust unanimously approved the liquidation, winding down and termination of the Fund, which is expected to happen on or about Tuesday, December 22, 2020.
    After the close of business on Monday, December 14, 2020, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. This is also expected to be the last day of trading of shares of the Fund on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE Arca”). Shareholders should be aware that when the Fund commences liquidation, it will no longer pursue its stated investment objective or engage in any business activities except for the purposes of selling and converting into cash all of the assets of the Fund, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining proceeds or assets to shareholders (the “Liquidating Distribution”). During this period, the Fund is likely to incur higher tracking error than is typical for the Fund. Furthermore, during the time between market close on Monday, December 14, 2020 and Tuesday, December 22, 2020, shareholders will be unable to dispose of their shares on NYSE Arca.
    Shareholders may sell their holdings of the Fund, incurring typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer, on NYSE Arca until market close on Monday, December 14, 2020, at which point the Fund’s shares will no longer trade on NYSE Arca and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who continue to hold shares of the Fund on the Fund’s liquidation date will receive a Liquidating Distribution (if any) with a value equal to their proportionate ownership interest in the Fund on that date. Such Liquidating Distribution received by a shareholder, if any, may be in an amount that is greater or less than the amount a shareholder might receive if they dispose of their shares on NYSE Arca prior to market close on Monday, December 14, 2020. The Fund’s liquidation and payment of the Liquidating Distribution may occur prior to or later than the dates listed above.
    Shareholders who receive a Liquidating Distribution generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over their adjusted basis in such shares. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Van Eck Securities Corporation, at 1.800.826.2333 for additional information.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Time to buy, sell, or hang tight
    Ended my 18-month PCI experiment with a break-even result. Having been newly retired, I was wowed by the large monthly distribution and exotic feel of CEFs. They still *call* to me but they require more work than I’m willing to do. Hey, I’m retired. Best to all.
    - Brian aka Level5
  • Thoughts on DIAL
    @FD1000 - thanks so much for your research and opinion!
  • BAMPX FUND.
    Much of the turnover in BAMPX appears to be coming from Strategic Income Opps fund (1805%) and to a lesser extent Master Total Return (556%). Total guess....perhaps short term paper purchases?
    A fund of fund's turnover, like a "regular" fund, is calculated based on what it holds directly. I can't find an authoritative definition at the moment that confirms that, but I can provide solid evidence.
    Look at FGDFX, the subject of another thread. This is another fund of funds. Its turnover is stated to be 0%. If turnover were computed using the securities in the underlying holdings, then its turnover would have to be greater than zero. The underlying funds, and their turnover ratios are:
    FBTNX - 6%
    FONNX - 0%
    FNTNX - 0%
    FRXNX - 0%
    FTKNX - 0%
    It's small (because all these funds are new), but there is non-zero turnover in the individual securities.
  • Fidelity Disruptors Fund - FGDFX
    For WYSIWYG, use <PRE> and </PRE> around the text.
    In looking at comparable funds, you might also consider ANFFX. It might seem that I found this by looking for a fund with a similar objective: "Seeks growth by investing in companies that can benefit from innovation, exploit new technologies or provide products and services that meet the demands of an evolving global economy."
    https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/investments/fund/anffx
    But I wasn't looking for this at all. I was simply looking to match allocations. FGDFX's equity is 70/30 domestic/foreign. ANFFX's is 75/25, with 46% large cap growth vs. FGDFX's 43%.
    Where are you gettting six month standard deviation figures? It's a curiosity question. I roll my own using Yahoo's monthly adjusted closing prices, and get numbers that are similar but not identical to what you posted. You should find that ANFFX's standard deviation is about 10% lower than FGDFX's. Though I'm not convinced that just seven months worth of returns give one a meaningful standard deviation - it's too unstable; a single month can throw the figure way off.
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    DODIX - Up 9% YTD / 9.3% one year / 6+% annually over the past three years
    DODFX - Up 1.74% YTD / 2.37% one year / 1.68% annnually the past three years
    The question isn’t purely academic. I opened a small spec position in DODFX about two and a half months ago. Just a little play money - pennies. The fund has caught fire of late. Normally, I’d now shift the spec money from DODFX back into DODIX, locking in a 20-30% gain. DODIX is, after all, clearly the more “conservative” fund. It serves as a cash substitute for investors at Dodge Cox which doesn’t have a money market fund.
    However, at this juncture everything looks “upside-down”. It’s the “safe” conservative fund that’s been screaming hot for several years while the “riskier” international fund has hardly moved. Regression to the mean - maybe?
  • Thoughts on DIAL
    DIAL looks to me as a pretty good option:
    1) ER=0.28% is cheap for Multi sector bond. PIMIX ER=1.09%(I know, it includes borrowings and repurchase agreements but still it's expenses)
    2) Risk/reward looks good. I used MFO data for 3 years, Multi sector funds + MFO rating of 4-5 and DIAL showed up while PIMIX didn't.
    3) Distribution are at the lower range under 3%.
    See MFO Table (link).
    image
  • Seven Canyons Small Cap Growth Fund in registration
    Would any fellow MFO fund investor have any recommendations
    for the following.......
    a) commodity fund
    b) relatively evenly balanced commodity exposure (not energy heavy)
    c) actively managed
    d) can be purchased through Schwab or Fidelity
    I plan to use to provide approx 5-7% alternative asset exposure
    for our mutual fund portfolio. We have a 2-10 year time horizon.
    Thank you for any suggestions
    JJM58
  • Grandeur Peak Funds to close Glbl Oppt & Intl Oppt Funds to third party intermediaries
    Just received an email from GP which states:
    December 17, 2020
    Dear Fellow Investors,
    We are announcing today that the Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund (GPGIX/GPGOX) and Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund (GPIIX/GPIOX) (the "Funds") will close to new investors through intermediary platforms after December 31, 2020. The Funds will remain open to existing investors. Retirement plans and financial advisors with existing clients in the Funds will still be able to invest in the Funds for existing as well as new clients as long as their clearing platform will allow this exception. The Funds will remain open to new investors who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
    Both Funds were re-opened during the market melt-down in the spring in order to provide an opportunity for investors to invest during the sell-off. With the strong rebound in the market, and even stronger performance by the Funds this year, they are back to assets levels where we feel it’s necessary to limit inflows. As you know, we carefully review capacity at the firm level and strategy level. We are committed to keeping all of our investment strategies small enough to be able to fully pursue their investment strategies without being encumbered by either their individual asset base or the firms’ collective assets. Achieving performance for our clients will always be our paramount objective.
    As a reminder, these two Funds, as well as all of the Grandeur Peak Funds, will be making their annual capital gains and income distributions on December 29th, with a shareholder record date of December 28th. If you would like to make further investments in these Funds within taxable accounts prior to year-end, you may wish to wait until after December 28th to avoid the distribution.1
    Thank you for your continued interest and trust. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or a member of our Client Relations Team.
    Best Regards,
    Eric Huefner
    President